Midway is such an odd fish - it's so dependent on the little things.
Say, for instance, that Arashi delayed abandoning the hunt for Nautilus for another hour, or sank her with the first depth charges, or was torpedoed herself - then McClusky won't be able to use her to find the carriers, and will probably have to turn back for a lack of fuel, like VB-8 did. Akagi and Kaga will survive to launch against Spruance - or Fletcher.
Or if the Tone had had a different search aircraft on the radial that found Fletcher, rather than the one whose catapult broke, then Nagumo would learn about the US carriers a bit earlier - maybe early enough to get his strike off before the SBDs came a-calling.
The Japanese do not have the industrial base or the technological base or the LOGISTICAL base to prolong the war any further than at most a few months.The radios are not something that could happen in the 'there and then' way the other mentioned PoD could.
logistics and technological bases. if they could have, they would have, hey knew they needed them, but they just didn't have the wherewhithall to build them and instal lthem i nthe time theyneeded them.What does that have to do with radios?
Can you quote a source for your comments on the B6N. I am curious because I haven't heard this kind of structural weakness mentioned before.
Regarding C6N, Perhaps a couple 550 pound bombs (or perhaps a single 500 kg bomb) would not impact performance as much. This plane at just a bit below 400 mph had the surplus performance to waste this way.
Regarding range estimates, the Japanese were the early long range experts. Flying missions against the Philippines from Taiwan isn't trivial. FWIW, the USN completely discounted the range information that they received from Grumman for the Hellcat because they were unable to come anywhere near reproducing it in practice. In practice, US planes flew on either Auto-Rich or Auto-Lean without a pilot tweaking the mixtures.
I will hold comments regarding the jets because as you pointed out earlier, they are irrelevant to discussions on wartime aircraft.
There are LOTS of misconceptions regarding the performance of Japanese WW2 aircraft. I know I am not the authority on this subject, but here goes anyway:
First of all, increasing octane isn't going to do anything for an engine that isn't tuned for it. Remember this wasn't the era of computer controlled ignition that automatica retards when it detects knocking. Also 10-20 mph needs a LOT of extra power. Consider that the speed increase is the cube root of the power increase assuming nothing else (altitude especially) has changed. Japanese fuel was typically 91-92 octane which is a little lower than US fuel, but German C3 fuel at 96 / 100 octane nominal was MUCH better quality than US fuel as stated in the tests of the FW 190 that now sits at Udvar Hazy. The question is how the octane number is calculated. Is it Research, Motor or (R+M)/2 and is it under rich or lean conditions. Don't group all the Axis together in this regard.
Japanese tended to document "maximum speed" as that achieved with "Military" power and not War Emergency Power. Consider that the official maximum speed in the manual for the A6M2 was only 316 mph and the USN test of Koga's Zero achieved 332 mph in a plane that wasn't in perfect shape. Saburo Sakai believed it was 345 mph with "overboost" which would have been the equivalent of our WEP which is how US aircraft are tested.
Typical sources list the maximum speed of the J2M3 Raiden 21 as 371 mph. The US tests of a J2M2 Raiden 11 achieved 407 mph and the J2M3 Raiden 21 achieved 417 mph. If you look at photographs of the J2M3 (Tail Code S12), you will note that it did NOT have the "High Activity" version of the propeller that can be seen on a photo of a Yokosuka plane that has its tail propped up.
One of the factors that I hinted at earlier is the rather poor performance of the Nakajima Ha-45 Homare engine. This little tiny (1940 Cubic Inch) engine could in theory put out 1990 hp at take-off. It probably actually did this if built and maintained correctly, but under field conditions, 1300 hp was more typical if it ran reliably at all. Consider that the Japanese even worked on replacing the "1990 hp" Homare with a 1500 hp Ha-112 on the Ki-84 Hayate. Sounds like a silly idea if you didn't know about the problems operational aircraft were having. The famous 427 mph Hayate probably was able to perform that well because it had some pretty good mechanics and good spare parts in the post-war USA to keep the Ha-45 up to its design performance.
One other surprising thing I found is that many if not most of the late war Japanese designs had laminar flow airfoils which may account for some performance gains. What is interesting is plotting engine power graphs against maximum speed. If you do this, you find that either the planes built by the Japanese were incredibly draggy or something else is going on to account for the lack of claimed speed.
Regarding Fragility, the Ki-43 Hayabusa had that issue. The A6M Reisen had it also to some extent, but in general, later planes did not. Fragility in structural strength and load bearing really isn't the same thing as proper armour. On the other hand, the F8F Bearcat WAS fragile. Its wing tips were designed to break off at 6G or so.
- Ivan.
How about the SBDs arriving before the TBDs? They would have met the fighter patrol at altitude instead of having a clear shot with the defending fighters down at low altitude.
What if the Japanese had spent more time on installing radios on their fighters that worked well? (That one is a serious game changer.)
- Ivan.
*Japan sinking 2-3 carriers will force the remainder to guard Pearl Harbor
*Japan is likely to offer a peace shortly after Midway, likely rejected. They will also likely capture examples of American aircraft at Midway, perhaps a B-17, TBF avenger, F4F hellcat, or any number of other aircraft. These could be sent back to Japan for further analysis and used to improve their own designs.
*US will have to reinforce the West Coast because of percieved threats against California, Pearl Harbor will also be under paranoia
*Japanese will move to control Espiritu Santo, Fiji, New Caldonia, and Samoa (operation FS) with the airfield at Guadalcanal will likely be completed. They will also likely try to move against Port Moresby with bombing of Australian targets increased afterwards. This will free up some Japanese manpower and might cause them to consider objectives elsewhere, though where would be uncertain. Victory fever would remain so Australia, New Zealand, Ceylon, or maybe even Pearl Harbor itself would be considered.
*There might be plans for another strike against Pearl Harbor itself to damage the shipping facilities there, or against Portland OR or San Francisco shipyards/industry.
*This threatens supply routes into Australia, putting Brisbane and Sydney along with Wellington and Auckland into range of Japanese bombers. New Zealand would worry about potential invasion and Australia would be under threat as well.
*Impact on 1942 elections would be interesting with possibility of a few doves elected to the Congress
*Redirection of efforts into the PAcific is likely to see a "Japan First" strategy, slowing supplies to the USSR. The USSR needed American material, trucks, boots, and other supplies to function - if denied these their ability to counterattack is reduced. It's also going to anger Stalin to see his army take a backseat to the US needs and might delay or eliminate Torch as US manpower is redeployed elsewhere. This gives the Germans the potential to regroup in Tunisia and makes a landing in Sicily that much more difficult.
Overall effect:
-Difficult to surmise details but likely delays the war 5-6 months in Europe while 4-6 months shorter in the Pacific. It *might* make Australia and New Zealand amenable to peace proceedings for Japan only as the US will be unable to field a fleet for 6-9 months and Japan could bomb their cities with littel resistance.
-US still takes fight to Japan but will bypass Phillippines and go straight for Saipan, Iwo Jima, and Okinawa. Likely an invasion by mid 1944/early 1945 where Japan still has much of its peripheral Empire intact. Possible that the Chinese never truly succumb to Communism as Manchuria is never invaded by the USSR
-Without additional American material the USSR effort slows, permitting Germany 5-6 months of additional existance as D-Day is delayed in the West and Eastern Europe becomes a killing field. Without as much strategic bombing and without Italy bogging down their troops the Germans have more resources to focus in the east...to no avail. The Mp44 is distributed in larger numbers and the overall additional wartime funding might result in the transistor being discovered in 1946 or late 1945 instead of 1947, and the M-26 is deployed to Europe but sees little combat.
-By Christmas 1945 Berlin, if not all of Germany, Denmark, and perhaps Italy too, are flying Communist flags. France and the Low Countries are only spared as Germans just about beg the Allies to land and put up no resistance.
-Presuming the Atomic Bomb development goes on course this might swing the other way and leave Berlin a radioactive crater with Czechloslovakia, Hungary, and Yugoslavia free nations since the USSR would not have had time to reach them yet. NATO is larger and has Czech military/industrial talent at its disposal making for a more interesting Cold War.
lets assume, somehow, that Enterprise, Hornet and Yorktown are all hit and sunk,m and Midway is occupied.
The next day, B-17s fr0om Pearl bomb midway, beginning a daily routine.
Wasp and Saratoga are comitted to a series of raids against Midway, Kwajalein, and Wake islands.
Japan occupies Guadalcanal and sets up a fighter base. US convoys sail farther south, putting in more at Melborne than Brisbane. Port Moresby may yet fall, and Darwin may see bombing raids, but an actual invasion of Australia is never going to succeed.
Germany First will remain.
on July 20th, Wasp and Saratoga are present as teh 1st Marine Raider battalion goes ashore to retake midway.
In 1943, as Essex, Intrepid, and Bon Homme Richard (OTL Yorktown II), along with the light carriers Independence, Princeton, Cowpens and Belleau Wood join Saratoga and Wasp, the Central Pacific campaign starts as OTL, at Tarawa, only a few months behind OTL schedule, but without the Southwest Pacific/Solomons campaigns.
If it goes to plan, that is the USA does not have prior knowledge, there are only two USA carriers at Midway. I don't think Nimitz would have rushed the Hornet as much, and as the battle begins, the Hornet is still unable to sail because of ongoing repairs or it will be in harbor as the battle begins, and will arrive late for the battle.
I hope he does, the Hornet was fine, it was the Yorktown that got her nose busted at Coral Sea.Don't you mean the Yorktown?
The problem with that is that it's not sexy. It doesn't play to the "Samurai" mythos.The Essex class carriers with HellCats, HellDivers, their sheer size and with all the radar advancements means the the U.S. will win after November 1943.
The best thing for the Japanese is to not do Midway and Coral sea but do more Indian Ocean commerce raiding with their submarines and cruisers. I know the Japenese were not into that, but sinking more of ther Allies shipping pool is the only way you are going to delay the inevitable counter offensives.
Japan sinking 2-3 carriers will force the remainder to guard Pearl Harbor
The Japanese had several examples of damaged B-17 from the Philippines, same goes for the SBD/A-24 and P-40. The Japanese didn’t use any U.S. aircraft to “improve” their designs IOTL, even after the Midway debacle, why would they choose to do so, even if it would have made a difference, after clobbering the U.S. for the third time in six months?*Japan is likely to offer a peace shortly after Midway, likely rejected. They will also likely capture examples of American aircraft at Midway, perhaps a B-17, TBF avenger, F4F hellcat, or any number of other aircraft. These could be sent back to Japan for further analysis and used to improve their own designs.
It would be impossible to increase West Coast paranoia from OTL levels. The entire Pacific Coast was waiting for the Japanese to roll over the Horizon well into 1944. The U.S. also used West Coast bases to do much of the training for air crews, troops, and of course home ports of naval vessels. The West Coast swarmed with troops, ships and aircraft.*US will have to reinforce the West Coast because of percieved threats against California, Pearl Harbor will also be under paranoia
*Japanese will move to control Espiritu Santo, Fiji, New Caldonia, and Samoa (operation FS) with the airfield at Guadalcanal will likely be completed. They will also likely try to move against Port Moresby with bombing of Australian targets increased afterwards. This will free up some Japanese manpower and might cause them to consider objectives elsewhere, though where would be uncertain. Victory fever would remain so Australia, New Zealand, Ceylon, or maybe even Pearl Harbor itself would be considered.
*There might be plans for another strike against Pearl Harbor itself to damage the shipping facilities there, or against Portland OR or San Francisco shipyards/industry.
It is more than slightly questionable if the Japanese could logistically support bases this far out, even if it could, this pre-supposes that the Guadalcanal/SW Pacific theater has been abandoned and that the Australian/U.S. forces have been either defeated or never deployed to New Guinea (neither of which is likely). If that were, however, the case the U.S. Army and/or USMC would have sufficient troops to deploy to New Zealand and there would be more than enough motivation to send them there (IOTL the 2nd Marine Division had significant forces in New Zealand from 1942-43).*This threatens supply routes into Australia, putting Brisbane and Sydney along with Wellington and Auckland into range of Japanese bombers. New Zealand would worry about potential invasion and Australia would be under threat as well.
*Impact on 1942 elections would be interesting with possibility of a few doves elected to the Congress
*Redirection of efforts into the PAcific is likely to see a "Japan First" strategy, slowing supplies to the USSR. The USSR needed American material, trucks, boots, and other supplies to function - if denied these their ability to counterattack is reduced. It's also going to anger Stalin to see his army take a backseat to the US needs and might delay or eliminate Torch as US manpower is redeployed elsewhere. This gives the Germans the potential to regroup in Tunisia and makes a landing in Sicily that much more difficult.
Overall effect:
-Difficult to surmise details but likely delays the war 5-6 months in Europe while 4-6 months shorter in the Pacific. It *might* make Australia and New Zealand amenable to peace proceedings for Japan only as the US will be unable to field a fleet for 6-9 months and Japan could bomb their cities with littel resistance.
-US still takes fight to Japan but will bypass Phillippines and go straight for Saipan, Iwo Jima, and Okinawa. Likely an invasion by mid 1944/early 1945 where Japan still has much of its peripheral Empire intact. Possible that the Chinese never truly succumb to Communism as Manchuria is never invaded by the USSR
-Without additional American material the USSR effort slows, permitting Germany 5-6 months of additional existance as D-Day is delayed in the West and Eastern Europe becomes a killing field. Without as much strategic bombing and without Italy bogging down their troops the Germans have more resources to focus in the east...to no avail. The Mp44 is distributed in larger numbers and the overall additional wartime funding might result in the transistor being discovered in 1946 or late 1945 instead of 1947, and the M-26 is deployed to Europe but sees little combat.
-By Christmas 1945 Berlin, if not all of Germany, Denmark, and perhaps Italy too, are flying Communist flags. France and the Low Countries are only spared as Germans just about beg the Allies to land and put up no resistance.
-Presuming the Atomic Bomb development goes on course this might swing the other way and leave Berlin a radioactive crater with Czechloslovakia, Hungary, and Yugoslavia free nations since the USSR would not have had time to reach them yet. NATO is larger and has Czech military/industrial talent at its disposal making for a more interesting Cold War.
This would make a lot less difference than might be imagined. When the American carrier aircraft arrived the Japanese only had NINE aircraft aloft as CAP (see Shattered Sword). While the American fighter escort was fairly small, it was enough to distract most, if not all, of this rather meager force. The Japanese were able to launch more fighters during the carrier plane attacks, mainly from the force that had been kept in reserve to escort the strike package held in readiness (and never dispatched) in case the American fleet was discovered, but when the strikes started, there were only nine Zeros available to defend the fleet.
The Allies at the time had 5,000 men on Midway compared to 5,600 on the Jap side. They also had hundreds of little traps including five American tanks with HE. I think they couldve made the battle damn expensive had they landed to the point the Japs give up.