German actions after WWI are severely restricted by the Treaty of Versailles. They cannot start doing anything up until at least 1925, because Allies were willing and able to just walk into Germany. Besides, until 1922 Germany is in utter chaos. After Great Depression strikes, all are in equally deep s*it. So no, 1914 does not help at all, using the real world constraints. No matter how creative one is.
AHC: Successfull Op. Sealion
- Thread starter Geomec
- Start date
German actions after WWI are severely restricted by the Treaty of Versailles. They cannot start doing anything up until at least 1925, because Allies were willing and able to just walk into Germany. Besides, until 1922 Germany is in utter chaos. After Great Depression strikes, all are in equally deep s*it. So no, 1914 does not help at all, using the real world constraints. No matter how creative one is.
You obviously fail to take into account that Luftwaffe doctrine, weapons, training and aircraft types are not designed for naval conflict. They had different priorities. They will always have different priorities unless they are magically transported to a world where their sole enemy is Britain or they are on an island.
That depends on defining the invasion as landing and then being forced to evacuate or surrender. If so, I have no problem.
Please note that I did not say you need that in addition to the other three rather unlikely conditions.
Sure. By the same token, anybody could make a nuclear bomb in 1945. In theory, and provided that some rather unlikely conditions were met, and provided a ceilingless budget.
You are confusing individual ships with a navy.
A number of British ships were actually sunk in WWII, and an even larger number could be sunk if the Germans give up building even one tank or howitzer and spend all their money building ships and anti-ship planes.
That still does not sink the whole navy.
Of course, in theory, if the Germans do all of that (i.e., maximize the Kriegsmarine and the anti-shipping Luftwaffe while not doing zilch about the Heer) and the French and Czechs and Poles don't just march into Berlin, it is possible to sink the whole of the British Navy, which of course will not have noticed the German anti-ship buildup, by sinking each and every HMS, to the last one.
I hope you'll see the unlikelihood of that.
We've also got to get the German army to the channel coast. I am assuming that they will have to either;
a) become very good friends with France and Belgium who then lay palm leaves on the road as the German invasion force travels to the channel ports ready to embark. They also agree to let the Luftwaffe use their airfields and don't mind at all if that attracts British air raids.
or
b) They have to fight their way to the channel and beat the French army.
If it's 'b' then the Germans have to give priority to their army and an airforce that is primarily trained to destroy land opposition as OTL.
Result same as OTL
Sandman396
Banned
Shaby,
Do you know anything at all about invasions?
You do realise that sometimes they are opposed?
There is a topic you might want to check on Wikipedia. It is called Overlord.
Devolved,
Did I say that? This seems to be a strange place for someone who feels history could only go in one direction.
Shaby,
So you feel that the OTL Luftwaffe force structure was the only possible one? No chance of a Tactical Air Command, Strategic Air Command and Marine Air Command structure? Really?
Astro,
I refer you to the comments I made to Shaby above.
Furthermore, I seem to recall that there are other ways to cross water other than barges but perhaps you know better.
Do you know anything at all about invasions?
You do realise that sometimes they are opposed?
There is a topic you might want to check on Wikipedia. It is called Overlord.
Devolved,
Did I say that? This seems to be a strange place for someone who feels history could only go in one direction.
Shaby,
So you feel that the OTL Luftwaffe force structure was the only possible one? No chance of a Tactical Air Command, Strategic Air Command and Marine Air Command structure? Really?
Astro,
I refer you to the comments I made to Shaby above.
Furthermore, I seem to recall that there are other ways to cross water other than barges but perhaps you know better.
I think that we need to distinguish between PODs which make it likely that Sealion will succeed, which are difficult, and PODs which just give it a slight chance, which is more than it had OTL. The most important POD is that the Germans realize that they may need to carry out an invasion of Britain and start planning as earlier as possible ("If you don't know where you are going, you will wind up somewhere else" according to Yogi Berra).
It is fairly easy to add small PODs which could add up to give Sealion a chance if you also have the big POD that they start planning early. For example, my Sealion Interview https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=167056 would benefit if the Germans had developed landing craft during the 1930s. This is just possible if Blomberg had wanted to start Army – Navy collaboration and had argued that the new Germany should be able to carry out a version of Operation Albion http://www.ndu.edu/press/operation-albion.html to oppose the USSR in Estonia. The British would have been quite happy to see the Germans focusing on the Baltic region. Sealion would clearly also benefit if German torpedo development had been competent or if Germany had managed to get its dockyards to work slightly faster (Iowa sailed on its first war patrol on 27th August 1943 exactly a year after being launched while Bismarck sailed on its one and only war patrol on 16th May 1941 or two years and three months after launch).
It is fairly easy to add small PODs which could add up to give Sealion a chance if you also have the big POD that they start planning early. For example, my Sealion Interview https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=167056 would benefit if the Germans had developed landing craft during the 1930s. This is just possible if Blomberg had wanted to start Army – Navy collaboration and had argued that the new Germany should be able to carry out a version of Operation Albion http://www.ndu.edu/press/operation-albion.html to oppose the USSR in Estonia. The British would have been quite happy to see the Germans focusing on the Baltic region. Sealion would clearly also benefit if German torpedo development had been competent or if Germany had managed to get its dockyards to work slightly faster (Iowa sailed on its first war patrol on 27th August 1943 exactly a year after being launched while Bismarck sailed on its one and only war patrol on 16th May 1941 or two years and three months after launch).
RamscoopRaider
Donor
Overlord was backed up by US industry, they could afford to build the thousands of landing craft needed for that, the hundreds of ships for fire support, thousands of planes for air superiority and equip all those troops to be landed properly and supply all of them, at the same time
Germany cannot afford to do that, especially when they have two major land enemies on their borders and a very large one just past one of those, they need to prioritize the army and tactical air force to survive on land
Also the UK is distracted where Germany has to deal with the Soviet Bear and spend most of its energy on that
Germany would use barges in Sealion as those were all it could get in quantity
So instead of answering my questions, you ask me other questions. Fine.
1. Yes. Having read Bodyguard of Lies, I do know a lot about invasions. Allies planned for Overlord about three years IIRC. During the planning stage they developed numerous technologies and doctrines. They conducted real life experiments. Deployed fleet of hundreds of ships. Thousands of airplanes. Conducted massive reconnaissance. And so on.
2. Yes it is only possible LW structure one given German objectives in war and real life constraints.
3. Not immediately available to Germans. LSTs were developed through two years of experience and available amphibious doctrine.
Also Overlord was the fifth major amphibious operation launched by the Allies sixth if you include Dieppe.
In 1940 the Germans had landed a few troops in Norwegian harbours in a surprise attack on a neutral nation.
While we're at it, Overlord is a very good example of what Seelöwe wasn't. Apart from what has already been mentioned. The Allies in 1944 brought along their own portable seaports (Mulberries) and their own inexhaustible fuel source (Pluto).
Guess what, Seelöwe did not feature any of those.
But this is alternate history! So, sure the Germans might come up with the ideas, and develop, and build, and test, and field those, just while they are doing the same with landing ships.
And while they are churning out complex magnetic mines by the 1000%s, per Mostlyharmless's proposal. And readying the battleships and battle cruisers that historically weren't ready. And discovering their torpedoes malfunction more often than not, and replace them, and in the 1000%s.
If all of that goes smoothly, one only needs to decide what they will not spend the money on; and how come a naval power like Britain doesn't notice any of that.
Guess what, Seelöwe did not feature any of those.
But this is alternate history! So, sure the Germans might come up with the ideas, and develop, and build, and test, and field those, just while they are doing the same with landing ships.
And while they are churning out complex magnetic mines by the 1000%s, per Mostlyharmless's proposal. And readying the battleships and battle cruisers that historically weren't ready. And discovering their torpedoes malfunction more often than not, and replace them, and in the 1000%s.
If all of that goes smoothly, one only needs to decide what they will not spend the money on; and how come a naval power like Britain doesn't notice any of that.
A successful Sealion operation
Its June 1940. Germany has kicked Britain out of France, accepted the defeat of France. It needs to move its 2000+ aircraft to airfields and build up its logisitics. It needs to build up its marine assualt force Barges etc in channel ports. The RN must withdraw out of immediate range of German bombers to preserve their force until invasion is imminent. Germans attacking convoys in the channel allow aggressive sorties whilst logisitic build up takes place. It fails to draw out the RAF Dowding conserves his fighters. Luftwaffe start their assault on RAF bases in early August and through attritition wear down/ force the RAF to re-deploy north of the Thames.
Narrow window in 2-3 week in September, the Kriegsmarine launch "Operation Seawolf" U boats are deployed to the mouth of the Thames, the Solent, the Humber, the Tees, Tyne, Firth and near to Scapa flow. Night time mining sorties by Condors, HE -111 and JU 88 drop magnetic mines in all above esturary approaches.
Assault day -8 hours Waves of German transport planes follow in a late evening air raid on London airbases by the Luftwaffe to drop two brigades of Paratroopers just North of Folkstone and Dover with the aim of cutting the roads to Dover. Gambling on a light invasion force three German Divisions including one Panzer Grenadier Division are landed during the early hours of D Day. The Luftwaffe are given the new role of supporting ground operations. This includes destroying any counter offensive launched by the British and disrupting road and rail links across an east west line to the Thames.
By D-day + 3 a further infantry divisions have been landed, several local civilain airfields in the SE Kent and Sussex have been over run and are being used as emergency landing strips for damaged Luftwaffe .
D-Day + 9 Luftflotte 2 moves its forward operations HQ to England. Several RN attacks including submarine attacks have caused significant casualties to the German re-inforcement but not without loss of many ships. By the end of the 1st week in October the Germans seem content to occupy the South Coast from Margate down towards Bognor Regis and as far North as Maidstone. The Luftwaffe are targeting airfields in the Midlands including the bomber bases whilst the Stukas are given free reign to strafe and dive bomb escaping refuge columns and any military forces that can be found.
Diplomatic activities in Switzerland continue and an offer of a Friendly German government to be installed to replace Churchill is made and accepted. The Royal family are allowed to remain. German forces occupy England from Bristol to London with London allowed to remain outside of German military though not Gestapo interference. A sort of Vichy England. A Creten style asault was the only real prospect of invasion open to the Germans before the onset of Winter in 1940. In the Summer of 1940 an air assault supported with the rapid and successful landing of up to 3 divisions (with one being mechanised) would have been sufficient to land and hold the SE corner of England. The Luftwaffe would then have resorted to its primary role of FGA and battlefield interdiciton and thus avoided the need to try and blitz the whole of the UK into submission. Following Dunkirk in 1940 the British army could not even field a single fully equipped Division in the UK. (It had the men just not the kit). Had Manstein been made CinC for Sealion then this operation could have succeeded. It would need Goering to be kept out of it and have the Kreigsmarine fully support the invasion and deny the RN room to manovere during the initial assault. Thereafter the Luftwaffe become the long range "jab" to keep the Bulldog at bay until a negotiated solution is achieved. By Christmas 1940 Hitler is master in the west. He gives independance to Ireland which kicks off a war between the 6 counties and the Free state. He can now turn his attention to the East and 1941
Its June 1940. Germany has kicked Britain out of France, accepted the defeat of France. It needs to move its 2000+ aircraft to airfields and build up its logisitics. It needs to build up its marine assualt force Barges etc in channel ports. The RN must withdraw out of immediate range of German bombers to preserve their force until invasion is imminent. Germans attacking convoys in the channel allow aggressive sorties whilst logisitic build up takes place. It fails to draw out the RAF Dowding conserves his fighters. Luftwaffe start their assault on RAF bases in early August and through attritition wear down/ force the RAF to re-deploy north of the Thames.
Narrow window in 2-3 week in September, the Kriegsmarine launch "Operation Seawolf" U boats are deployed to the mouth of the Thames, the Solent, the Humber, the Tees, Tyne, Firth and near to Scapa flow. Night time mining sorties by Condors, HE -111 and JU 88 drop magnetic mines in all above esturary approaches.
Assault day -8 hours Waves of German transport planes follow in a late evening air raid on London airbases by the Luftwaffe to drop two brigades of Paratroopers just North of Folkstone and Dover with the aim of cutting the roads to Dover. Gambling on a light invasion force three German Divisions including one Panzer Grenadier Division are landed during the early hours of D Day. The Luftwaffe are given the new role of supporting ground operations. This includes destroying any counter offensive launched by the British and disrupting road and rail links across an east west line to the Thames.
By D-day + 3 a further infantry divisions have been landed, several local civilain airfields in the SE Kent and Sussex have been over run and are being used as emergency landing strips for damaged Luftwaffe .
D-Day + 9 Luftflotte 2 moves its forward operations HQ to England. Several RN attacks including submarine attacks have caused significant casualties to the German re-inforcement but not without loss of many ships. By the end of the 1st week in October the Germans seem content to occupy the South Coast from Margate down towards Bognor Regis and as far North as Maidstone. The Luftwaffe are targeting airfields in the Midlands including the bomber bases whilst the Stukas are given free reign to strafe and dive bomb escaping refuge columns and any military forces that can be found.
Diplomatic activities in Switzerland continue and an offer of a Friendly German government to be installed to replace Churchill is made and accepted. The Royal family are allowed to remain. German forces occupy England from Bristol to London with London allowed to remain outside of German military though not Gestapo interference. A sort of Vichy England. A Creten style asault was the only real prospect of invasion open to the Germans before the onset of Winter in 1940. In the Summer of 1940 an air assault supported with the rapid and successful landing of up to 3 divisions (with one being mechanised) would have been sufficient to land and hold the SE corner of England. The Luftwaffe would then have resorted to its primary role of FGA and battlefield interdiciton and thus avoided the need to try and blitz the whole of the UK into submission. Following Dunkirk in 1940 the British army could not even field a single fully equipped Division in the UK. (It had the men just not the kit). Had Manstein been made CinC for Sealion then this operation could have succeeded. It would need Goering to be kept out of it and have the Kreigsmarine fully support the invasion and deny the RN room to manovere during the initial assault. Thereafter the Luftwaffe become the long range "jab" to keep the Bulldog at bay until a negotiated solution is achieved. By Christmas 1940 Hitler is master in the west. He gives independance to Ireland which kicks off a war between the 6 counties and the Free state. He can now turn his attention to the East and 1941
If you give the Germans 20/20 hindsight a few years in advance, that would be enough for them to have a chance at success. No guarantees, but if they come prepared with longer ranged fighters, proper landing craft, a few dedicated marine divisions, a navy that focused more on well-armed destroyers, E-boats, and U-boats than the cruisers and battleships, Japanese-style torpedo bombers and tactics, etc, they'll at least have a decent shot at it. It will be a close-run thing no matter what.
I think it's possible for Germany to prepare itself in such a way without crippling itself for the land wars in France and elsewhere. If they decided to prepare for it by some form of Plan Z, that would obviously take enough resources to handicap the army significantly, and would definitely antagonize Britain. Building the navy of smaller ships would come across as less intimidating, since it looks more like a Baltic fleet than one that will challenge the RN at sea.
I think it's possible for Germany to prepare itself in such a way without crippling itself for the land wars in France and elsewhere. If they decided to prepare for it by some form of Plan Z, that would obviously take enough resources to handicap the army significantly, and would definitely antagonize Britain. Building the navy of smaller ships would come across as less intimidating, since it looks more like a Baltic fleet than one that will challenge the RN at sea.
Yes... until now, this is nearly exactly what happened in real history...
...so you'll need something better than a flat statement to have this happen.
Who claimed that? You're beginning to border on trolling. If you were to ask 'since when did the RN have a surface fleet so vast and advanced that the German Navy would need to be fundamentally redesigned from as far back as the 1900s to destroy it', then the answer is 'since the 1900s'.
Go away and read a book about the size of the Royal Navy in 1940. Then come back and try to make an argument that hinges on 'destroying the RN' without any details on how you're going to do it.
I doubt that this is doable without exceeding the limitations of the London Naval Treaty between Germany and Britain. The British had carefully crafted that specifically in order to push the German building program towards a balanced fleet, which they thought would be easier for the Royal Navy to fight. So what you are suggesting was exactly perceived as a threat by the British Admiralty.
You are aware of the contents of that treaty, aren't you?
Sandman396
Banned
1) Which of these things are beyond the Germans with almost 300% of the planning time?
2) I will not attempt to argue with you since your mind is clearly closed on this issue.
3) And cargo ships are unavailable why?
I am beginning to understand the mindset here.
I know this is a sore spot but, I want a successful Operation Sealion PoD after Hitler becomes chancellor. Have fun!
P.S. Don't rip me apart for this.
Prepare to die my friend, prepare to die.
On topic: I suggest you read Decades of Darkness. It shows you just how far back you have to go for even a very close-run Sealion to be possible. You cannot have Operation Sealion with any sort of PoD that would realistically result in a recognisable Britain or Germany of OTL 1940.
Well, maybe each one of these things is (note, singular) not beyond the Germans.
Taken alone.
As you will have noticed, all of them together were used by the Allies in 1944.
Do you remember why Schacht was fired as president of the Reichsbank in January 1939?