To be honest being divided into two seperate states isn't the worst deal Japan could have got out of this. (The worst would have been becoming a sort of second India or a Russian India...)
Maybe the USA could get in on the action in Korea in order to provide a buffer between Russia / Britain!
Some historians cite the establishment of a permanent Russian presence on Sakhalin by 1812 as the beginning of the end for Seclusion and the Shogunate in Japan. Though the power of the Shoguns would continue for decades to come, this failure of the 1808 declaration of Ezochi, Sakhalin, and the Kuriles as sovereign territory of Japan was seen by many intriguers as a sign of weakness. Moves by the Shogunate to strengthen its hold on Ezochi through direct rule may have backfired, because the displaced Matsumae clan became more responsive to Russian influence and is believed by many historians to be behind the smuggling that began in Ezochi at that time, though the only people caught at the activity were Ainu. Continual rebuffing of Russian overtures for trade contributed to Russian interest in smuggling as a way to gain Japanese goods. By 1840, serriptitious trade with the Russians and perceived weakness of the Shogunate combined to lead to the Ezochi Revolution. Fueled mostly by Russian weapons, the rebellion did well at first, but was doomed to failure eventually given the disproportionate numbers involved. However, a direct entreaty by the Matsumae to the Russian Empire was used as a diplomatic excuse to send a fleet to Edo. Under threat of the more advanced weapons of the Russian navy, the Shogun was forced to open Japan to some foreign (Russian) trade through Ezochi, and to acknowledge the autonomy of Ezochi with Russia as guarantor, though Ezochi officially still remained part of the Japanese nation. The days of the Shogonate at that point were clearly numbered.
The Ainu People of Ezochi
Japan had struggled valiantly throughout the 19th century to ward off European intrusion into Japan. Their perceived greatest threat was that of the Russians occupying neighboring Sakhalin island. The first half of the 19th century saw several overtures by the Tsar for an opening of trade rebuffed, until the disaster of the Ezochi rebellion in 1840 had forced the Japanese into some limited trade with the Russians through Ezochi, though even after this the Russians continued on and off to place pressure on the Shogunate for more concessions.
It is unclear what were the combination of factors that made 1855 so different from all the other attempts. Perhaps it was Russia's recent lack of success in the Liberal War in Europe that made the Russians to more aggressively seek success in the far east, yet at the same time made some Japanese brazen enough to resist the Russians with force of arms. In any event, the small Russian fleet that entered Edo bay that fateful year did not take a simple no for an answer. Under threat of the ships' guns, the Shogunate's government was torn as to how to respond - enough so that it led to open conflict between the factions, with the daimyo winning the immediate control in Edo and bringing everything they had against the Russian 'Black Fleet' who had earlier fired shells towards Edo as a show of force, but now laid waste to huge swaths of waterfront and beyond with their guns. The Japanese were able to gain a temporary equality with the use of fireboats that they sent careening into the ships in the bay. The Russians retreated that day, but would be back later that year with more ships and more troops, using Sakhalin as a staging point to invade the Japanese islands. Unfortunately for Japan, the violence in Edo had ignited a full scale civil war in Japan itself.
Glen, I just wanted to give you a heads up that I will be doing my first article for the Alternate History Weekly Update on this fine TL of yours!
With your permission of course
