I don't see the lack of an embargo somehow butterflying away Gerald Bull, his howitzers weren't designed specifically to get around an embargo against the RSA and the G5 was built under different names in Austria and China as well, the former of which was not under any arms embargo AFAIK.
South African Defence Force without sanctions?
- Thread starter flasheart
- Start date
The Olifant project seems to have been motivated as much by withdrawal from the Commonwealth as the sanctions regime, so I expect it would go ahead, though not being sanctioned would make buying surplus Centurions easier.
FWIW the original order (placed on 11.10.62) was for 16 aircraft plus options for a further 14.
In the early 1980's following the Islamic Revolution Iran experienced great difficulties in operating their F14 Tomcat interceptors due to a combination of US embargos and a purge of F14 qualified air and ground crew's.
As a result the new government tried to sell off the aircraft to raise hard cash.
For a while it looked like Canada would purchase the aircraft. However this fell through following Canada's involvement in the rescue of US diplomats from Iran.
What if the SAAF decided it might like to buy the still relatively new and modern aircraft?
Without a formal arms embargo might they be able to convince the Americans to provide the necessary support to allow them to operate the aircraft and if so would the capability of the F14 be worth the effort and expense?
Might Pretoria try to work out some covert deal with the Americans where they aquire the aircraft from Iran and then send them back to the US in exchange for something?
As a result the new government tried to sell off the aircraft to raise hard cash.
For a while it looked like Canada would purchase the aircraft. However this fell through following Canada's involvement in the rescue of US diplomats from Iran.
What if the SAAF decided it might like to buy the still relatively new and modern aircraft?
Without a formal arms embargo might they be able to convince the Americans to provide the necessary support to allow them to operate the aircraft and if so would the capability of the F14 be worth the effort and expense?
Might Pretoria try to work out some covert deal with the Americans where they aquire the aircraft from Iran and then send them back to the US in exchange for something?
I did hear a mention that the South Africans were interested in buying Victors at some point in the 60s.
Buccaneers were ideal for dropping gravity bombs.
Buccaneers were ideal for dropping gravity bombs.
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Riain
Banned
As tankers or bombers?
The Buccaneer is a great bomb truck, especially in medium threat environments.
Well, that's the big question, isn't it? The F-14 isn't an obvious fit for South African strategic requirements. It was designed as an interceptor, able to shoot down Regiments of incoming Tu-22s from Soviet Naval Aviation before they could launch their salvoes of shipkilling missiles. That's not a situation South Africa ever had to worry about, so they won't be getting it for its utility as an interceptor.
The F-14 also turned out to be a pretty good air-superiority fighter in general. South Africa's enemies and neighbours did have air forces, but I don't recall them ever taking much part in the various conflicts, and if they did the existing SAAF inventory could handle them quite competently.
That leaves the F-14A's strike capability (bad) or use as an AWACS platform with it's powerful radar (arguable). The South Africans did have a use for those capabilities, but they also had easier/cheaper/better options for them.
Against all that, you have an incredibly expensive, maintenance intensive aircraft, which requires two highly-trained crew, and is operated by precisely one other nation (who is entirely likely to cut you off from spares and stores if you upset them). To me, it looks like a bad deal. South Africa would get much more benefit from another squadron of Buccaneers, or airborne tankers, or multirole fighters like the Mirage F.1. If you want to make their ground forces happy, you could also look at increasing the numbers of helicopters they had, and maybe get a squadron or two of AH-1s. The navy would benefit from more patrol aircraft - the Shackletons were a bit long in the tooth, but even a F.27 Friendship with a radar would be a useful asset.
I don't know, a mate had seen it in a 1960s aviation magazine. I'd suspect it was for bombers, as the Victor tankers were only converted after the sudden grounding of the Valiant, and that was around 1965.
If we look at the entire French don't put strings on the deal kind of package then the logical replacement of the Buccaneer is non existent. The French never had a bomb truck like the Buccaneer.
The Mirage 5 would be the go to tactical ground attack with the Mirage F.1 as the Air superiority until mid 80's.
Mirage F.1 could carry laser designators and guided munitions fairly well. it was not as capable as a two seat strike aircraft.
Mirage 2000 was and still is very capable. two seat strike aircraft as part of the purchase would enable a single type fleet with high capability.
Rafale would be a suitable successor to the 2,000.
Dassault would no doubt love this klind of sales. envision 40 to 60 total aircraft at any time. Maybe up to 80 if no Buccaneer.
So for example.
48 Mirage 111 and 20 Buccaneer 1960's
36 Mirage 5 (converted III) and 36 Mirage F.1 1970's
30 F.1 and 40 2000 1980's/90's
36 2000 and 36 Rafale 1990/2000's
With avionics upgrades etc. Some attrition loses included
The Mirage 5 would be the go to tactical ground attack with the Mirage F.1 as the Air superiority until mid 80's.
Mirage F.1 could carry laser designators and guided munitions fairly well. it was not as capable as a two seat strike aircraft.
Mirage 2000 was and still is very capable. two seat strike aircraft as part of the purchase would enable a single type fleet with high capability.
Rafale would be a suitable successor to the 2,000.
Dassault would no doubt love this klind of sales. envision 40 to 60 total aircraft at any time. Maybe up to 80 if no Buccaneer.
So for example.
48 Mirage 111 and 20 Buccaneer 1960's
36 Mirage 5 (converted III) and 36 Mirage F.1 1970's
30 F.1 and 40 2000 1980's/90's
36 2000 and 36 Rafale 1990/2000's
With avionics upgrades etc. Some attrition loses included
The F-14 would be overkill for SADF. Better to invest in close-air support platforms. The AH-1 Cobra you mentioned would be ideal instead.
There's the story that Harold Wilson persuaded Hugh Carleton Greene the Director-General of the BBC to postpone "Steptoe & Son" until after the Polling Stations had closed because he'd loose 20 seats if it was shown at its scheduled time. The Labour Party won with a majority of four.
IOTL the next General Election was on 31st March 1966, which the Labour Party won and with its majority increased 98. There would probably have been a General Election at about this time ITTL had the Tories won in 1964 because they'd have had a small majority. It's not certain that the Tories would have lost whenever the next General Election happened and for all I know they might have remained in power until the middle 1970s.
A Conservative victory in 1964 would release a mega-swarm of butterflies outside the defence and aviation spheres. For example, the legalisation of homosexuality, legalisation of abortion, reform of the divorce laws and abolition of capital punishment might not have happened for another decade if the Conservatives had remained in power and I write that as a "small c" conservative. On the other hand the Tories might have introduced an arms embargo in the 1960s if they had remained in power for all I know.
Are the Belfasts in place of the 9 C-160Z Transalls that were delivered 1969-70? The SAAF received 7 C-130Bs in 1963 and to me standardising on the Hercules would have been the sensible thing to do. Does anyone know if the SAAF wanted to buy more Herculeses but the USG refused to sell and that's the reason why the Transalls were purchased?
Edit on 18.11.22
I've ninja'd myself because I wrote more-or-less the same thing in Post 14 on 17.08.22.
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Does anyone know what the plural of Hercules is? Herculeses doesn't feel right.
On the naval side.
Submarines
South Africa ordered 3 Daphne class submarines from France in April 1967 and in the 1970s 2 Agosta class submarines from France, but the latter weren't delivered because of the UN's arms embargo. Would South Africa have bought 5 Oberon class submarines from the UK if HMG had been less scrupulous?
Frigates
The SAN acquired 3 W class destroyers from the UK in the 1950s. One had already been converted to a Type 15 frigate and the others were converted to Type 16 frigate standard 1962-66. South Africa ordered 3 Type 12 Rothesay class frigates in 1957 which were delivered 1962-64.
None of these ships were replaced. South Africa did buy 2 French A69 corvettes in the 1970s but they weren't delivered because of the arms embargo.
I can't prove it, but my suspicion is that South Africa wanted to order 3 broad-beam Leanders in the second half of the 1960s to replace the W class destroyers and was prevented from doing so by the British arms embargo. Alternatively, they might buy 3 Type 21s or 3 ships built to commercial design from Vosper-Thornycroft in the first half of the 1970s.
The Type 12 became due for replacement in the 1980s. The most likely candidate is a MEKO design provided the West German Government was willing to allow South Africa to purchase them. I think a MEKO design is the most likely because they were winning most of the export orders at the time and because the post-Apartheid South Africa bought 4 MEKO frigates.
Edit on 18.11.22
I've ninja'd myself because I wrote more-or-less the same thing in Post 14 on 17.08.22.
Submarines
South Africa ordered 3 Daphne class submarines from France in April 1967 and in the 1970s 2 Agosta class submarines from France, but the latter weren't delivered because of the UN's arms embargo. Would South Africa have bought 5 Oberon class submarines from the UK if HMG had been less scrupulous?
Frigates
The SAN acquired 3 W class destroyers from the UK in the 1950s. One had already been converted to a Type 15 frigate and the others were converted to Type 16 frigate standard 1962-66. South Africa ordered 3 Type 12 Rothesay class frigates in 1957 which were delivered 1962-64.
None of these ships were replaced. South Africa did buy 2 French A69 corvettes in the 1970s but they weren't delivered because of the arms embargo.
I can't prove it, but my suspicion is that South Africa wanted to order 3 broad-beam Leanders in the second half of the 1960s to replace the W class destroyers and was prevented from doing so by the British arms embargo. Alternatively, they might buy 3 Type 21s or 3 ships built to commercial design from Vosper-Thornycroft in the first half of the 1970s.
The Type 12 became due for replacement in the 1980s. The most likely candidate is a MEKO design provided the West German Government was willing to allow South Africa to purchase them. I think a MEKO design is the most likely because they were winning most of the export orders at the time and because the post-Apartheid South Africa bought 4 MEKO frigates.
Edit on 18.11.22
I've ninja'd myself because I wrote more-or-less the same thing in Post 14 on 17.08.22.
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According to the SAAF's website the Service acquired 251 MB-326K/M aircraft which were delivered from 1966 and called the Impala.
Have you any idea whether the SAAF wanted the BAC Jet Provost and was forced to buy Italian by the British arms embargo? I think not because it looks like the decision to buy them was taken before the embargo came into effect and Australia acquired 97 MB-326Hs in spite of no British arms embargo.
Most of the Impalas were built in South Africa by Atlas. Do you know if their Viper engines were built in South Africa too?
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IIRC, the RAAF asked for Vulcans in the early sixties to cover the gap until they got their Canberra replacement. The UK response was an offer to base a squadron of Valiants in Australia and remaining under RAF control. Australia wasn't impressed.
marktaha
Banned
I believe that reversed result in 1964 would have been followed by a Rhodesian settlement in 1965 and another reversed result in 1966. The reforms in question would I think have been.passed anyway.
If the SAAF does obtain AH-1 (or potentially AH-64) presumably this butterflies away the Rookivalk unless it still happens down the line in some other form.
If Pretoria are able to convince Washinton to sell to them what other US built aircraft might they have procured?
With no embargos restricting South Africa's ability to procure foreign hardware how would the South African arms industry have developed compared to OTL?