The Death of Russia - TL

[Sorairo]

Again, people will be anti-Russian, but I doubt they'd become more anti-communist.

In my experience with my Polish and Ukrainian friends, they don't really divide between the two and consider passing Anti-Communism laws to be getting one back at Russia by trashing the legacy of their empire that is still considered a golden era by a large amount of Russians. It's not so much a statement about what was primarily an economic system, but the legacy of the Soviet Union itself as something to not be nostalgic for but to be glad that its over. TTL's NSF has not caused a broader embrace of 'Capitalism' in E. Europe as such but more of democracy, nationalism for small nations and to consider their futures to be with America and Western Europe.

Anecdotally I definitely detect a broader appreciation in Western Leftists about how awful the Soviet Union was since the start of the year - labelling Russia's occupations of Eastern Europe as 'colonialism' has definitely recontextualised a lot of the Soviet Union's actions from 'dreamers trying to make a project work' to 'They looked at the pigs and back to the humans and couldn't tell the difference'. I think a Chechen War with the full eyes of the world watching could easily have the same effect, especially as the story of how the Caucasus was conquered start being told in Western media.

 

[Mayukh]

as the story of how the Caucasus was conquered start being told in Western media

Like how YouTube history channels are covering more Ukrainian history?

 

[Mayukh]

In my experience with my Polish and Ukrainian friends, they don't really divide between the two and consider passing Anti-Communism laws to be getting one back at Russia by trashing the legacy of their empire that is still considered a golden era by a large amount of Russians. It's not so much a statement about what was primarily an economic system, but the legacy of the Soviet Union itself as something to not be nostalgic for but to be glad that its over. TTL's NSF has not caused a broader embrace of 'Capitalism' in E. Europe as such but more of democracy, nationalism for small nations and to consider their futures to be with America and Western Europe.

Anecdotally I definitely detect a broader appreciation in Western Leftists about how awful the Soviet Union was since the start of the year - labelling Russia's occupations of Eastern Europe as 'colonialism' has definitely recontextualised a lot of the Soviet Union's actions from 'dreamers trying to make a project work' to 'They looked at the pigs and back to the humans and couldn't tell the difference'. I think a Chechen War with the full eyes of the world watching could easily have the same effect, especially as the story of how the Caucasus was conquered start being told in Western media.

Also What Parts of Former Russian "Federation " have significant non Russian Minorities?

 

[Sorairo]

Like how YouTube history channels are covering more Ukrainian history?

Somewhat, yes. As NSF Russia is almost an avowedly racist state while still nostalgic for the Soviet era. Thus they are facing the double whammy of documentaries on Russian Anti-Semitism, the deportations of the Chechens, Latvians and Estonians alongside the Circassian genocide while at the same time taking the full brunt of the mass murders, starvation and imperialism of the Soviet Union. There is no demographic of America or Europe beyond the most deluded contrarians who like NSF Russia.

Russia's ethnic minorities are mainly in the Caucasus, the bottom and top of the Urals, along the Mongolian border. Tatarstan is in legal limbo at this time as well as Yeltsin never signed the agreement and so they are looking at Chechnya to decide what to do next while Makashov thought a show in Chechnya would intimidate Tatarstan into submission and got precisely the opposite.

 

[Glory2Cabinda]

I wonder how the international Jihadist network's are going to react to the NSF actions in Chechnya. With the way their going I could really see them landing on Al Qaeda's shitlist

 

[Lemonfish]

Somewhat, yes. As NSF Russia is almost an avowedly racist state while still nostalgic for the Soviet era. Thus they are facing the double whammy of documentaries on Russian Anti-Semitism, the deportations of the Chechens, Latvians and Estonians alongside the Circassian genocide while at the same time taking the full brunt of the mass murders, starvation and imperialism of the Soviet Union. There is no demographic of America or Europe beyond the most deluded contrarians who like NSF Russia.

View attachment 781816
Russia's ethnic minorities are mainly in the Caucasus, the bottom and top of the Urals, along the Mongolian border. Tatarstan is in legal limbo at this time as well as Yeltsin never signed the agreement and so they are looking at Chechnya to decide what to do next while Makashov thought a show in Chechnya would intimidate Tatarstan into submission and got precisely the opposite.

If all minority in the map form their own state post civil war, than post war Russian state gonna have the ugliest border.

 

[Sorairo]

If all minority in the map form their own state post civil war, than post war Russian state gonna have the ugliest border.

I won't spoil too much but the final result will not be all the ethnic republics independent with rump Russia like in the map posted. I don't know if it will look better or worse when in map form.

 

[Glory2Cabinda]

If all minority in the map form their own state post civil war, than post war Russian state gonna have the ugliest border.

Bold move to assume there will be a united Russian state when this is over.

 

[1962strat]

Given that's implied that the civil war goes nuclear, I have to wonder about the environmental consequences, especially for Europe and Asia. They could have a very rough time if enough nukes are detonated.

 

[Lemonfish]

I won't spoil too much but the final result will not be all the ethnic republics independent with rump Russia like in the map posted. I don't know if it will look better or worse when in map form.

Yeah with lots of genocide coming, it is possible that some minority got completely wiped out.
And no way post war Russia state is that big, I imagined they suffered a warlord period that make China one look tame, and it is still ongoing by 2022. At the very least, they lose the status of biggest country on Earth.

Bold move to assume there will be a united Russian state when this is over.

If things got bad enough I imagined that no successor states will have "Russia" in its name, as the name become curse enough. Instead we might see something like Repulic of Novogrod, Commune of Irkutsk, National State of Kamchatka.

 

[Dunois]

The only other wars that could match that ferocity were those that would stem from the now imminent implosion of the Russian Federation.

A gripping timeline so far Sorairo but one which certainly doesn't make for easy reading at all.

The only upside of TTL is that everything West of Russia will be part of NATO and the EU and eventually join the West on a somewhat better footing than OTL. Ukraine has the potential to equal Poland's economic performance if it plays its cards right and is well led.

One question, what will be the impact of the Russian Civil War on gas and oil supplies to Europe? The pipelines going from the Yamal fields straight to Europe were already in operation in the 1980s. Therefore gas supplies are bound to be a problem sooner or later. I'm suprised that the NSF hasn't played this card with Europe and Ukraine already. Either by threatening to rise prices or cut off supply or both.
Unlike today there's no US shale gas to mitigate the blow, but the North Sea had many reserves left then. It would be a good topic to research for your TL.

Dagestan could become another Chechnya nightmare for Russia.
The coming conflict between Petrograd centered fascists and Moscow centered Communists could be a bloody one too.

I don't see the civil war spreading into Siberia or the Far East that much. Once supplies from the centre are cut off, these regions are guaranteed to try and go independent too; a Siberian or Far Eastern Republic could become quite stable with external support too.

I dread what's coming next ...

 

[1962strat]

The only upside of TTL is that everything West of Russia will be part of NATO and the EU and eventually join the West on a somewhat better footing than OTL. Ukraine has the potential to equal Poland's economic performance if it plays its cards right and is well led.

The TTL does seem to be better for most of the post soviet states (except of course Lativia and Estonia), but I'm dreading the consequences of the nuclear fallout that will come from Russia.

As for Ukraine, I'd argue that it's potential is significantly higher than Poland's. It's incredibly rich in terms of natural resources and geography, has more population, and inherited a lot of the heavy industry of the Soviet Union, which while currently not that competitive, it can still be salvaged.

I think we could also see Ukraine making a landgrab for some Russian territory once Russia collapses.

 

[Sorairo]

It would be a good topic to research for your TL.

At that time Germany actually had a very strong gas industry and was likely able to take the hit much better than OTL. It's the East Europeans who will face the brunt worse but they will gladly eat grass to stand up to Makashov.

 

[Dunois]

I won't spoil too much but the final result will not be all the ethnic republics independent with rump Russia like in the map posted. I don't know if it will look better or worse when in map form.

Most of the ethnic republics withon the Russian Federation don't have majority Russian demographics or population. Buryatia, Udmurtia, Mordvinia etc are all majority Russian or even almost 70% Russian in the case of Buryatia.
It is impossible for the titular ethnicity in them to become independent, unless they receive significant external support such as what happened in Abkhazia in the early 1990s.

Even Tatarstan and Baskhorostan will face a tough time if they attempt to rebel against Moscow. Nearly 40% of their populations is Russia, their economies are tightly integrated to Russia and they can't receive any external help or supplied as they are enclaved.

However, Tannu Tuva, Dagestan, Ossetia, Inghushetia and anything alse in the Caucasus will likely be a lost to Russia.

The bitterest conflict is likely going to be between the Fascists and the Communists within Russia. There are plenty of extremists on both sides to make things very bloody. You used to be a member of the communist party? Well the fascists will come and get you. You collaborated (vague term) with the "ennemies of the people" that are the fascists in the North? Well the communists will come and get you ...

The biggest killer in the civil war will be famine and the breakdown of transportation infrastructure within Russia if the country starts to split apart into opposing entities. Northern Russia and even Moscow itself won't last long if grain and supplies from the Volga valley and the south aren't arriving. We could be looking at millions dying of hunger here ...

 

[Dunois]

The TTL does seem to be better for most of the post soviet states (except of course Lativia and Estonia), but I'm dreading the consequences of the nuclear fallout that will come from Russia.

As for Ukraine, I'd argue that it's potential is significantly higher than Poland's. It's incredibly rich in terms of natural resources and geography, has more population, and inherited a lot of the heavy industry of the Soviet Union, which while currently not that competitive, it can still be salvaged.

Agreed if they do the right reforms and attract investment from the West, large parts of Ukraine's heavy industry could be salvaged. The downside may however be that concerns such as Antonov or Motor Sich end-up owned by foreign capital. While Poland did very well since 1989, most of its industry is foreign owned, which can create challenges further down the line.

I think we could also see Ukraine making a landgrab for some Russian territory once Russia collapses.

Why would they? Neither Belgorod nor the Kuban are Ukrainian speaking anymore. It would be foolish for them to expand and potentially draw the West's ire in the process.

 

[1962strat]

Agreed if they do the right reforms and attract investment from the West, large parts of Ukraine's heavy industry could be salvaged. The downside may however be that concerns such as Antonov or Motor Sich end-up owned by foreign capital. While Poland did very well since 1989, most of its industry is foreign owned, which can create challenges further down the line

If Ukraine is open to foreign ownership on other fields, I'm sure an agreement on majority national ownership of critical industries could be reached.

Why would they? Neither Belgorod nor the Kuban are Ukrainian speaking anymore. It would be foolish for them to expand and potentially draw the West's ire in the process.

Some misguided sense of nationalism? Revenge for Crimes maybe? Getting back at Russia in general? That, and simply that they can. While there might be some mild protest from the West, no one will be on the mood to care much about the rump Russian state.

 

[Cascadiawank]

The decapitations were often with blunt knives, sometimes even with pens.

This is the least important question, but how the hell do you cut off someone's head with a freaking pen? It's a spike, not a blade. I imagine whoever did it must've had rather aching hands after that

 

[Fratsup]

So Sorairo I have to ask how will people think of Russia in say 3 decades from the start of the civil war?
Really it seems like a lot of ours ideas of what the timeline should be are based in large part in reality and current events which I understand but I have to ask is this all its going to be? Like other than this just being a EU/Eastern Europe or US wank I am more curios on how the world will be once Russia as a nation no longer exists. I mean what will the Russian people think?

I mean unless one of the remaining states remains as a Russian North Korea, I am curious how the youth that did not grow with a Russia and how they will see the situation. Will China be considered the new threat? Will there be more insecurity inside the western world without a major nation to see as an enemy? Will Russia remain apart forever or will pull a China at some point?
Really it just seems that there is a bit of wasted potential otherwise as the times that Russia/Russian Empire/Soviet Union and such fall apart or become irrelevant happens a lot in timelines.

 

[Mayukh]

This is the least important question, but how the hell do you cut off someone's head with a freaking pen? It's a spike, not a blade. I imagine whoever did it must've had rather aching hands after that

One of my classmates once in midschool made a hole in another ones head with a pen.

 

[Alpha-King98760]

Jesus. Fucking. Christ!!! That was certainly an update, that part about the Russian troops being tortured and of the Russian atrocities in Chechnya was hard to read….hell of an engaging chapter though.