Not as much as you'd think. I understand that Russia, for instance, has been doing that (substantially reducing their abortion rates) and if I recall they're still well south of TFR 2.1. Their TFR is a lot lower than it was under the USSR back in the 60s and 70s when they had sky high abortion rates.
With Russia, there's always a question of how much what's on paper reflects what's true in reality. Come to think of it, that's also true of abortion if enforcement of restrictions isn't rigorous, because restricting access to abortions has to mean reducing the number, not just moving them from clinics to back alleys. There are other factors too. All other things being equal a well fed woman is more likely to get pregnant from sex than a malnourished one; the reason wealthier countries have lower birthrates is largely because of higher use of birth control.
 
Nations have tried most of what has been described here, with relatively little effect---their TFRs keep falling. About the only thing that has worked historically is winning a major war. Eventually though, I suspect that we'll succeed in breeding strains of humanity that are resistant to modernity and birth control and those segments will come to dominate the population by numbers. This will happen very fast in populations where the TFR is below 1.5 or so. In the US I know of several such segments, and I suspect they exist in other nations as well.
So will we all be Mormons, Tradcaths and Orthodox Jews in 200 years?
 

Riain

Banned
IIUC Israel is the only developed country with a birth rate above replacement, apparently its because Israelis are proud of their culture and country and want it to continue into the future so put social value on having Israeli kids. And before anyone jumps in about orthodox having heaps of kids, secular Jews are also above replacement rate.

So there you have it! Have a nation's people believe what they have is important enough to continue into the future, the kids will come naturally without all the natalist policy.
 

Riain

Banned
Failing that if natalist policies are called for I'd pump up marriage into a great benefit for its participants and close the sort of loopholes that make it a bad deal for one or both parties. For example no fault divorce should be coupled with no win divorce, removing the financial incentives for divorce by one side getting screwed in the property settlement, child access/support and the like.
 
IIUC Israel is the only developed country with a birth rate above replacement, apparently its because Israelis are proud of their culture and country and want it to continue into the future so put social value on having Israeli kids. And before anyone jumps in about orthodox having heaps of kids, secular Jews are also above replacement rate.

So there you have it! Have a nation's people believe what they have is important enough to continue into the future, the kids will come naturally without all the natalist policy.
But Israelis also have memory of Holocaust and fears of being overwhelmed by Arabs.
 
IIUC Israel is the only developed country with a birth rate above replacement, apparently its because Israelis are proud of their culture and country and want it to continue into the future so put social value on having Israeli kids. And before anyone jumps in about orthodox having heaps of kids, secular Jews are also above replacement rate.

So there you have it! Have a nation's people believe what they have is important enough to continue into the future, the kids will come naturally without all the natalist policy.
The U.S. from the 1980s to the 2000s could also fit into this category, albeit not to the same extent. I don't think it's a coincidence that the U.S. fertility rate has crashed as the country has become less religious and patriotic over the past 15 years.
 
The following suggestions largely assume that ethical questions are sidelined in this state. I don't think I'd like the type of government that would impose these measures, and there's massive scope for state abuse of the system.

Childless couples who are not pregnant within a year of marriage or within 2 years of the last child (irrespective of reasons [1]) are required to adopt or foster; all unmarried adults over the age of 21 are required to marry or will be assigned a partner;
fertility help and treatments are freely available to all who want it; abortion and contraception is illegal but good quality pre and post maternity care is free and readily available plus discrimination against unmarried mothers is outlawed. Adoption is seen as a way for poor families or otherwise struggling parents to keep having children (state funding goes only so far). Discrimination on the basis of adoptive status is outlawed.
That's more than enough well-intentioned fascistic dystopia for me, so I'll stop there.

[1] sexual orientation or health reasons might prevent you from becoming a parent, but the state expects you to do your part. Equality need not be all good news.
 
The only examples of systems which have kept up fertility successfully are those that are non-coercive, which create incentives for many people to have children at a time and place of their own choosing and without imposing penalties on disfavoured models.
 

Riain

Banned
The only examples of systems which have kept up fertility successfully are those that are non-coercive, which create incentives for many people to have children at a time and place of their own choosing and without imposing penalties on disfavoured models.

100%, coercion will lead to infanticide by 'accident'.
 
100%, coercion will lead to infanticide by 'accident'.

We can look at the example of Romania, where the deeply coercive pronatalism resulted in a sharp backlash post-Ceaucescu.

We can also more meaningfully point to West Germany, where past experiences (the deeply coercive and unpleasant pronatalism of Nazi Germany, the negative example of the GDR's more positive pronatalism, the general post-war desire for a return to an idealized normality) saw the FRG adopt a conservative pronatalism aimed at supporting children in traditional families with traditional gender divisions. The result of that is that people uninterested in said in West Germany, unlike in France or northern Europe or even East Germany, tended not to have kids, this low non-marital fertility pushing West German birthrates down.

Honestly, I am not sure you can boost completed fertility rates in a highly developed country much above replacement levels. You need stable and supportive environments which actively support family formation for multiple types of families. With the notable exception of the post-war baby boom, itself arguably a consequence of the unexpected post-war realization of the most optimistic dreams of the future and (again) of a desire to retreat to an idealized past, a conservative pronatalism that sees fertility boosted to high levels in the context of a traditional or neotraditional environment just does not exist. Or, it does, but only in the context of its imposition by a totalitarian state.
 
Beyond this, and verging on Future History territory, the only way I can imagine fertility rates being boosted will be to expand life expectancy and fertility windows generally. In the modern world, people are increasingly having to postpone childbearing well into their 30s or even 40s, thanks to the requirements of their lives. By that point, the window for prospective parents is limited.

Imagine, if you would, a setting where thanks to some biomedical intervention people not only live longer and healthier lives (into their 90s, say) but their fertility windows are made to stretch into their 50s. This would give people lots of extra time to not only have children later in life but to have long healthy lifespans with them.
 
So will we all be Mormons, Tradcaths and Orthodox Jews in 200 years?
Not all of us, but I bet an awful lot of us will be that, or homeschoolers, or Amish. A few will just be significant outliers like my younger half-brother, who is a 'Mighty Servant of Darwin' (he's got like 7 kids, albeit with like 3 different women, I've only got 3, all by the same wife). The future belongs to those who show up for it.
 

Riain

Banned
Putting the cart before the horse, but in the West what arrangement reliably produces the most children? I assume its a stable marriage nuclear family, but that might not be right.
 
Not all of us, but I bet an awful lot of us will be that, or homeschoolers, or Amish. A few will just be significant outliers like my younger half-brother, who is a 'Mighty Servant of Darwin' (he's got like 7 kids, albeit with like 3 different women, I've only got 3, all by the same wife). The future belongs to those who show up for it.
I've seen projections that say that the Amish could be 2% of the U.S. population by 2100 if their demographic growth doesn't slow down (which it very well could, given that there's only so much land to be farmed). Aside from that, I agree with the statement you made. The hand that rocks the cradle rules the world.
Also, your brother is a chad.
 
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