cardcarrier
Banned
Hello ah.com,
This will be my second attempt at submitting a timeline to the forum. I learned a great deal from the constructive criticism that was given by the community and have done much reading over the last few months to try and develop this
General background and markers:
This timeline will begin in and around 5/24/42, with all other war efforts and force dispositions occurring as we are familiar with up to that point.
This is a mid war axis military timeline; it is categorically not an axis "victory" timeline
Areas covered:
An alternate operation venice and aida in north africa
Knock on effects creating alternate scenarios for case blue and the 1st battle of Rhzev
general economy of forces available for the last ride of the axis
Areas not covered:
The pacific
specific naval matters/battles
The state of the board 3rd week of May 1942
North Africa:
Rommel's forces had the best supply situation they had experienced in Africa to date, this stemmed from a variety of factors including but not limited to:
By selecting our point of departure as the 3rd week in May we are joining the tail ends of several major battles
Generals Kliest and Paulus are in the process of locking their death grip on army group Timoshenko in the Donbas in the 2nd battle of Kharkiv in which the Soviet army would lose 300,000 men and much army equipment (including thousands of army vehicles)
General Manstein was nearing the end of operation buzzard hunt which was the final nail in the series of disasterous Soviet offensives at Kerch which had cost their army over 500,000 men. This was going on with the final ground work being laid to end the siege of sevastopol which would cost the Russian army an additional 120,000 soldiers
Further north Army Group's center and North had conducted much line straitening and built extensive defensive lines during the spring, and had finished relieving several pockets, notably at Demyansk the previous several weeks
The calamity of Kharkiv and Kerch zapped nearly all immediately available Soviet military power in the south, leaving them vulnerable to the long planned operation blue which had the objectives of taking Stalingrad on the Volga River and capturing the oil producing regions of the Caucuses; both of which where incredible operational distances from the main axis supply nodes that had been carefully built up over the winter
Balance of forces: As we know 50+ divisions were tasked to participate in case blue, the Panzer Army Africa (abbreviated as PAA for the balance of the timeline) had 10 active divisions (7 italian 3 german (1 Italian division forming at Tripoli))) reserves where scarce as the crisis of the heavy defeats in the Soviet winter counter offensive and the need to rebuild the PAA and Army Group South forces for their planned offensives stripped the pantry bare. Although new divisions such as the Herman Goering tank division where under construction and high quality divisions like 6th panzer division, 1st ss division and other formations where being rebuilt they would not be ready for operations until the late fall. The only formations readily available who where not on garrison duty where those forces earmarked for the near ready to launch and cancelled at the last minute operation Herkules which included specialist airborne/marine units specialist armor and half a dozen infantry divisions with limited mobility.
I look forward to sharing this with the forum and your feedback - CC
This will be my second attempt at submitting a timeline to the forum. I learned a great deal from the constructive criticism that was given by the community and have done much reading over the last few months to try and develop this
General background and markers:
This timeline will begin in and around 5/24/42, with all other war efforts and force dispositions occurring as we are familiar with up to that point.
This is a mid war axis military timeline; it is categorically not an axis "victory" timeline
Areas covered:
An alternate operation venice and aida in north africa
Knock on effects creating alternate scenarios for case blue and the 1st battle of Rhzev
general economy of forces available for the last ride of the axis
Areas not covered:
The pacific
specific naval matters/battles
The state of the board 3rd week of May 1942
North Africa:
Rommel's forces had the best supply situation they had experienced in Africa to date, this stemmed from a variety of factors including but not limited to:
- The Luftwaffe and Reggia Aeronautica had launched over 10,000 sorties against malta during the spring, destroying nearly all the fuel supply on the island and forcing significant food rationing (malta was only 1/3 food self sufficient in this era and depended on cargo ships to bring food to sustain the civilian population and the garrison); it was remarked by general Kesselring that they had run out of targets to bomb on malta at this point
- Bengahzi port which had been extensively sabotaged the previous year during the British retreat from operation sunflower, had been largely repaired
- The axis was making some clandestine use of Vichy ports in Tunisia (this was of mixed blessing because while Tunis and Bizertte could ease some of the port congestion, it involved considerable fuel burn and time to bring supplies forward from there)
- The British Alexandria fleet had lost the use of Valiant and Queen Elizabeth following frogmen mine attacks in late 1941 which left them in a difficult position to challenge the Regia Marina; The British navy at this time faced extreme stress/demand on it's units not only in the North African theater, but also in the battle of the atlantic, and the red hot war in the pacific
- Tactical and strategic surprise (Rommel had received orders for his offensive to begin in August which had been deciphered by project ultra and passed on to Cairo GHQ), however Rommel in this battle as he frequently did throughout the North African campaign did not act in accordance with orders from Rome and Berlin. General Ritchie and Auchinlek's HQ believed the intel they had been given up to this date and where preparing their own offensive which they planned to launch prior to what they expected Rommel's jump off to be
- Complacent to non existent recon by the desert air force (which only had 1 aircraft up the day the offensive started) which lost track of Rommel's mobile divisions at the outset of the battle and failed to warn rear area units of axis ground advances
- Poor radio discipline by British and commonwealth forces which allowed Rommel's 621st radio intercept company to locate headquarters units and obtain other valuable battlefield intelligence
- Abwehr and MIS penetration of the American Code Black system being utilized by the American Attache to Cairo HQ Colonel Bonner Fellers. Bonner Fellers had been granted "full access" as part of an agreement between the US and the British, and his messages where passed to Rommel's mailbox which gave him extensive knowledge of British dispositions and counter attack plans as they developed in the battle which he abused heavily
- The British and common wealth formations where largely new/raw formations as their veteran divisions had either been withdrawn to the middle east to rebuild after operation crusader or transferred to the Pacific
- The British defensive plan was a poorly thought out series of static defensive boxes which where not mutually supporting, and the troops did not have standing orders/contingency plans of what to do in the event of axis troops surrounding their boxes from the rear other than to await relief by armor
- The main 8th army supply dumps at El Adem and Gambut including corps headquarters where poorly screened against a bold thrust from the south, this included the main desert air force landing grounds supporting the army in Libya
- Significant stockpiles of axis munitions had been captured by the 8th army during operation Crusader in December 1941 in the El Adem area, the 8th army did not burn these in the 6 months they held the area, and per point 7 they where poorly screened from the south and offered axis mobile formations the opportunity to live off the land deep in the British rear if they could fight their way to El Adem
- London on the heels of bad news from the Pacific was prone to interfere with the Army's handling of the battle and had limited confidence in Neil Ritchie and the 8th army staff and would be likely to interfere in their handling of the battle
By selecting our point of departure as the 3rd week in May we are joining the tail ends of several major battles
Generals Kliest and Paulus are in the process of locking their death grip on army group Timoshenko in the Donbas in the 2nd battle of Kharkiv in which the Soviet army would lose 300,000 men and much army equipment (including thousands of army vehicles)
General Manstein was nearing the end of operation buzzard hunt which was the final nail in the series of disasterous Soviet offensives at Kerch which had cost their army over 500,000 men. This was going on with the final ground work being laid to end the siege of sevastopol which would cost the Russian army an additional 120,000 soldiers
Further north Army Group's center and North had conducted much line straitening and built extensive defensive lines during the spring, and had finished relieving several pockets, notably at Demyansk the previous several weeks
The calamity of Kharkiv and Kerch zapped nearly all immediately available Soviet military power in the south, leaving them vulnerable to the long planned operation blue which had the objectives of taking Stalingrad on the Volga River and capturing the oil producing regions of the Caucuses; both of which where incredible operational distances from the main axis supply nodes that had been carefully built up over the winter
Balance of forces: As we know 50+ divisions were tasked to participate in case blue, the Panzer Army Africa (abbreviated as PAA for the balance of the timeline) had 10 active divisions (7 italian 3 german (1 Italian division forming at Tripoli))) reserves where scarce as the crisis of the heavy defeats in the Soviet winter counter offensive and the need to rebuild the PAA and Army Group South forces for their planned offensives stripped the pantry bare. Although new divisions such as the Herman Goering tank division where under construction and high quality divisions like 6th panzer division, 1st ss division and other formations where being rebuilt they would not be ready for operations until the late fall. The only formations readily available who where not on garrison duty where those forces earmarked for the near ready to launch and cancelled at the last minute operation Herkules which included specialist airborne/marine units specialist armor and half a dozen infantry divisions with limited mobility.
I look forward to sharing this with the forum and your feedback - CC