Essai en Guerre: an FFO-inspired TL

1. There was comment on the US possibly setting up factories in French colonies, specifically NW Africa. That had already been accomplished in two cases. First a final assembly site for the Martin M-167 bomber had been established in Morocco & had been operating since March or April 1940. this site included a school for the aircraft technicians/ground grow and a parts depot. A similar site had been set up by Douglass Aircraft for assembly of the DB-7. Im unsure if that was operating in May 1940. The facility for the H-75 was in Metropolitan France and was lost OTL as the Armistice required its destruction.
I recall reading your comments about this elsewhere here and on AHF. This was one of the factors that made me think an FFO scenario was sort-of plausible, at least in terms of France's material ability to continue.
4. The BOMB. The French were up to something. In 1939 they persuaded Norsk Hydro to sell the French government all the heavy water production. The last large delivery occurred in March 1940, just a few weeks before German curiosity seekers secured the NH facility. French had also started purchasing large quantities of Yellow Cake Uranium ore from Belgium. Not in small lab bench quantities but in multi ton batches. The French had also been collecting refugee Physicists from across Europe like prize baseball cards. Rhodes in 'The Making of the Atomic Bomb' has several paragraphs on this. While some of the physicists were collected by the Brits the records at the Curie Institute and related facilities were not well preserved. Exactly what the French were aiming at and how far along they were is not clear to me. I suspect a Atomic power project of some sort. The USN initiated a Atomic power research program in 1939, so its not ASB some group like the Curie Institute had organized something similar.

The Brits have been accused of letting the question sit in academic debate, thus losing 8-10 months of practical research 1940-41. This is beyond my expertise but worth a look.

What this adds up to is the possibility the French research group is evacuated to Africa & either continues there, or the French work out a earlier collaboration with the US than the Brits did.
We've had some discussion on this one and I've gone hot and cold about the prospects. Just now I'm inching back towards the warm side. I read Rhodes some years ago but don't have my copy any more, I will have to look back at what he said. I remember reading also about what happened to those scientists and that French heavy water - I think they were spirited out of France by the Earl of Suffolk. (In this TL it's possible he survives, since Britain suffers a lower level of air attacks in 1940.)
5. Frances gold reserves were substantial, as were its foreign currency reserves. Unlike the British Empires 'Sterling Zone' the French banking system was a bit more compatible with the US & placed the French government & a better cash flow with the US. Not all the French Gold reserves were in distant Dakar or aboard the Bearn. In March 1940 two cruisers had been dispatched from France with a large quantity bullion for distribution in the North American banking system as collateral and for further payment on French purchases from US & Canadian industry. This is to say French financial transactions with US banks/industry would have been almost seamless in the post evacuation era, and France could have continued paying cash for a considerable time.
It's possible a greater Allied ability to pay might have delayed Lend-Lease, but I've assumed that the ongoing involvement of France improves American perceptions of the Allies, so I made it a wash, with LL happening at about the same time as OTL.
I guess that a good side effect is that 3 million Bengalis in India don't starve as the colonial administration doesn't panic and start the scorched earth policy that they implemented after the fall of Bengal OTL as they panicked after the fall of Burma which doesn't happen ITTL.
Absolutely yes. The Japanese offensive will hit its culmination point a long way short of Burma, and this butterfly might be the biggest of all. No confiscation of boats, much lower losses of merchant ships, and Burma (I believe a grain surplus area) will be able to contribute food supplies.
The successful defense of Singapore and Malaya and large parts of Dutch East Indies means that the British appear to be stronger than they actually are also an impression that the tide is turning so the Quit India Movement is butterflied away and massive butterflies may hit India, maybe even no partition as the Muslim League was still an organization of the elites and they never become the popular organization that they became once the Congress was gutted and its leaders jailed.
The British may appear stronger, but independence is clearly still coming within a few years - the more interesting question is whether Partition still happens. I haven't worked out the dynamics.
In Burma the rise of General Ne Win is butterflied away so another plus for humanity.
Unfortunately I'm not sure this is right. Ne Win was already a significant player within the Burmese nationalist movement, and Burma is sure to become independent once India does (as noted above that will be before 1950).
What is the reality of the Anglo-French Union other than jointly deciding war plans? It seems to me as a measure to justify the evacuation from the French mainland and continuing the war. It seems that the British Government operates from London whereas the French government operates from Algiers. If they are truly united shouldn't they be based out of London as a single government?
I think a policy of constructive ambiguity prevails. On the one hand, it will be played up as a grand idealistic project. On the other, I think the mechanical challenge of creating a single government in London would prevent doing so. The French would also dislike the optics of appearing to live as supplicants. Doing so might badly hurt the legitimacy of the arrangement. So in practice all the difficult questions have been shelved for the duration, and the war effort still recognises the distinction between British and French forces, with unity only at the top levels (Army Group/ Theatre commanders etc).
ITTL the British Eastern Fleet or Pacific Fleet whichever is correct operates with impunity from the beginning of the war in the east so the Australian and the New Zealander navies are never forced to operate with the Americans and they are also never forced to request American protection as the British are already doing so. This would probably keep them bound more closely with the British Postwar.
Not quite with impunity, they have taken and will take losses, but so long as Singapore holds, that will affect Australian opinion. John Curtin's famous speech on 26th December 1941 would not have been in quite the same terms. Instead of the loss of Force Z and probable defeat in Malaya, he sees a substantial British Eastern Fleet at Singapore. However, the heavy lifting in the South Pacific will be American. I think in these circumstances Australian policy will emphasise some kind of equivalent, balanced relationship as between the UK and US.
Admiral Cunningham ITTL still does Taranto and sees other action in the Mediterranean before moving onto the Pacific so he becomes more of a hero than OTL maybe the greatest British Admiral of the Century
I think he is anyway... but yes, after these exploits he'll be considered in Nelson's league.
Similarly Wavell with quick victories in the Middle East and doing the heavy lifting in the East means that he is already on of the greatest British Generals of the War at least until the ground war restarts in western Europe although much is left to decide his fate.
Probably he'll have a higher reputation than OTL, but I doubt he'll command in Western Europe, he will need a rest after his exertions.
Where is Admiral Somerville now that Cunningham is in the East?
OTL he was with Force H, the elements of which stayed with the Home Fleet, so I guess he's in the Atlantic theatre. We'll encounter him before the end of Part Nine.
 
Part 9.3
Extract from ch.7, The Fall of the Rising Sun, Brendan Green

The Battle of the Bali Sea was a tactical victory for the Japanese in terms of warships sunk, but a serious strategic reverse. The Special Naval Landing Force was virtually annihilated, along with several priceless assault transports and landing craft. Bali would only fall to 48th Division in a renewed assault the following month. This required the transfer to Balikpapan of numerous landing craft from other sectors, and once again the use of the fleet carriers of Mobile Force. ‘The delay to our operations is most unfortunate,’ noted Yamamoto. ‘The enemy showed a ruthlessness we did not expect in allowing one force to go to destruction purely as a distraction. They again showed their liking for night actions.’ He had grown concerned about the demands on Mobile Force in the DEI region. ‘It seems any time we encounter difficulty the cry goes out for the carriers,’ he went on. ‘But Kido Butai cannot play fire-brigade in the south all the time. The American raids in the central Pacific are becoming increasingly impudent and damaging. The time comes to seek a decisive battle with them.’

For their part, Wavell and Cunningham did not seek to hold Bali in March. ‘Not the right place for a decisive trial of strength,’ explained Wavell to the Council, responding to pressure from London and the Dutch government-in-exile. ‘Bali is a thousand miles from Singapore. ABC could only position Force K for its brilliant action because of his astute reading of circumstances, and its attack only successful because of lacklustre Japanese use of their search abilities. We cannot expect repetition of this failing.’ Bali’s airfield they also considered untenable - ‘raided repeatedly by enemy aircraft from Makassar and Borneo. We do not have so many aircraft that we can afford to fritter them away. Enemy air attacks in Sumatra - Singapore region becoming serious.’

This reflected the major air battles taking place during March all along the front. Bombers from Indochina were now operating against Malaya, raiding the towns of the east coast. The Japanese had by now built up to a strength of some 300 aircraft in Borneo, despite the austere conditions of the bases there. Their targets during March and April were Singapore and Palembang, and they had many successes. Bomb damage to the Illustrious and Prince of Wales in March forced the heavy units of Eastern Fleet to withdraw from Singapore - a move Cunningham had expected as soon as Borneo fell. The outdated Hurricane fighters used by the RAF and RAAF took heavy losses in the air fighting. One unlucky squadron became operational on March 3rd, and by March 7th had no aircraft serviceable.

Tokyo now considered mounting an amphibious assault on Sumatra from Borneo. Sumatra in mid-March was defended by the two weary Brigades of Australian 8th Division just evacuated from Borneo, plus Dutch troops. The RAAF had only a few squadrons, mostly based at Palembang, their real striking power was at that point lacking. The opportunity seemed highly favourable. However, the local commanders, General Imamura and Admiral Kondo, explained on March 16th that they could not exploit the moment. ‘Transports and landing craft not available, have suffered many losses recently. Concentration against Bali means no landing in Sumatra possible until end of month, probably not before first week of April. Only landing force immediately available is 2nd Division, which is under-strength following Borneo campaign. Unwilling to risk using Kido Butai in Java Sea until Java is taken. Great danger from enemy submarines and aircraft. Enemy air force at Palembang not sufficiently weakened.’

The moment of danger, recognised as such by Wavell at the time, passed. In the third week of March he concluded, with the support of the Council, that the Thai attitude was likely to remain favourable, provided Malaya and Sumatra could be held. He therefore moved British 6th Division to Sumatra - ‘a little boat trip across the Malacca Strait,’ noted its commander, General Scobie. Indian 10th Division, just arrived from Iran, replaced them in Malaya. That week welcome air reinforcements arrived also, and a fresh wing of RAF Hurricanes went to Palembang. ‘We have a bit more of a roof over our heads,’ noted Wavell, ‘Peirse thinks we now have just enough to hold them off.’

One administrative casualty occurred by the way. General Percival’s pessimism had finally exhausted the patience of Wavell, and still more Brooke and Churchill. After reading yet another pessimistic report in mid-March, the Prime Minister sent a stern memo to General Brooke. ‘Percival is such a Dismal Jimmy,’ Churchill wrote, ‘and he lowers Wavell’s spirits. Do we not have someone better to command the troops?’
‘I have just the man,’ replied Brooke.
 

Driftless

Donor
Extract from ch.7, The Fall of the Rising Sun, Brendan Green
(snip)
This reflected the major air battles taking place during March all along the front. Bombers from Indochina were now operating against Malaya, raiding the towns of the east coast. The Japanese had by now built up to a strength of some 300 aircraft in Borneo, despite the austere conditions of the bases there. Their targets during March and April were Singapore and Palembang, and they had many successes. (snip).
I would think there would be much weeping and wailing from the well-connected civilian sector about those air raids, perhaps even being relayed back to London (i.e. Uncle Dickie the MP, or the Viscount of Leadbottom). We know from OTL, Percival dared not rattle the local nabobs too much. There would likely be a fair amount of civilian pressure to protect the Malayan financial heartland.

However, the local commanders, General Imamura and Admiral Kondo, explained on March 16th that they could not exploit the moment. ‘Transports and landing craft not available, have suffered many losses recently. Concentration against Bali means no landing in Sumatra possible until end of month, probably not before first week of April. Only landing force immediately available is 2nd Division, which is under-strength following Borneo campaign. Unwilling to risk using Kido Butai in Java Sea until Java is taken. Great danger from enemy submarines and aircraft. Enemy air force at Palembang not sufficiently weakened.’

The moment of danger, recognised as such by Wavell at the time, passed.
The Fog of War.... Both sides are fully aware of their own limitations but aren't as aware that their opponents are stretched just as thin.
 

Ramontxo

Donor
O yeeeesss.
Extract from ch.7, The Fall of the Rising Sun, Brendan Green

The Battle of the Bali Sea was a tactical victory for the Japanese in terms of warships sunk, but a serious strategic reverse. The Special Naval Landing Force was virtually annihilated, along with several priceless assault transports and landing craft. Bali would only fall to 48th Division in a renewed assault the following month. This required the transfer to Balikpapan of numerous landing craft from other sectors, and once again the use of the fleet carriers of Mobile Force. ‘The delay to our operations is most unfortunate,’ noted Yamamoto. ‘The enemy showed a ruthlessness we did not expect in allowing one force to go to destruction purely as a distraction. They again showed their liking for night actions.’ He had grown concerned about the demands on Mobile Force in the DEI region. ‘It seems any time we encounter difficulty the cry goes out for the carriers,’ he went on. ‘But Kido Butai cannot play fire-brigade in the south all the time. The American raids in the central Pacific are becoming increasingly impudent and damaging. The time comes to seek a decisive battle with them.’

For their part, Wavell and Cunningham did not seek to hold Bali in March. ‘Not the right place for a decisive trial of strength,’ explained Wavell to the Council, responding to pressure from London and the Dutch government-in-exile. ‘Bali is a thousand miles from Singapore. ABC could only position Force K for its brilliant action because of his astute reading of circumstances, and its attack only successful because of lacklustre Japanese use of their search abilities. We cannot expect repetition of this failing.’ Bali’s airfield they also considered untenable - ‘raided repeatedly by enemy aircraft from Makassar and Borneo. We do not have so many aircraft that we can afford to fritter them away. Enemy air attacks in Sumatra - Singapore region becoming serious.’

This reflected the major air battles taking place during March all along the front. Bombers from Indochina were now operating against Malaya, raiding the towns of the east coast. The Japanese had by now built up to a strength of some 300 aircraft in Borneo, despite the austere conditions of the bases there. Their targets during March and April were Singapore and Palembang, and they had many successes. Bomb damage to the Illustrious and Prince of Wales in March forced the heavy units of Eastern Fleet to withdraw from Singapore - a move Cunningham had expected as soon as Borneo fell. The outdated Hurricane fighters used by the RAF and RAAF took heavy losses in the air fighting. One unlucky squadron became operational on March 3rd, and by March 7th had no aircraft serviceable.

Tokyo now considered mounting an amphibious assault on Sumatra from Borneo. Sumatra in mid-March was defended by the two weary Brigades of Australian 8th Division just evacuated from Borneo, plus Dutch troops. The RAAF had only a few squadrons, mostly based at Palembang, their real striking power was at that point lacking. The opportunity seemed highly favourable. However, the local commanders, General Imamura and Admiral Kondo, explained on March 16th that they could not exploit the moment. ‘Transports and landing craft not available, have suffered many losses recently. Concentration against Bali means no landing in Sumatra possible until end of month, probably not before first week of April. Only landing force immediately available is 2nd Division, which is under-strength following Borneo campaign. Unwilling to risk using Kido Butai in Java Sea until Java is taken. Great danger from enemy submarines and aircraft. Enemy air force at Palembang not sufficiently weakened.’

The moment of danger, recognised as such by Wavell at the time, passed. In the third week of March he concluded, with the support of the Council, that the Thai attitude was likely to remain favourable, provided Malaya and Sumatra could be held. He therefore moved British 6th Division to Sumatra - ‘a little boat trip across the Malacca Strait,’ noted its commander, General Scobie. Indian 10th Division, just arrived from Iran, replaced them in Malaya. That week welcome air reinforcements arrived also, and a fresh wing of RAF Hurricanes went to Palembang. ‘We have a bit more of a roof over our heads,’ noted Wavell, ‘Peirse thinks we now have just enough to hold them off.’

One administrative casualty occurred by the way. General Percival’s pessimism had finally exhausted the patience of Wavell, and still more Brooke and Churchill. After reading yet another pessimistic report in mid-March, the Prime Minister sent a stern memo to General Brooke. ‘Percival is such a Dismal Jimmy,’ Churchill wrote, ‘and he lowers Wavell’s spirits. Do we not have someone better to command the troops?’
‘I have just the man,’ replied Brooke.
May I inquire if we would be lucky enough to enjoy an committee of local gentry getting an interview with a certain Ulsterman to protest his latest measures, or is ITTL too late
 

Driftless

Donor
Do we not have someone better to command the troops?’
‘I have just the man,’ replied Brooke.

O yeeeesss.

May I inquire if we would be lucky enough to enjoy an committee of local gentry getting an interview with a certain Ulsterman to protest his latest measures, or is ITTL too late

With events going much better in North Africa, and usefully well elsewhere, there should be some quality commanders "sitting on the bench", waiting for a good posting. Monty's the most obvious, but there's plenty of good leaders that are under-employed in this TL, including a number of Frenchmen.
 
Part 9.4
Extract from ch.9 of To the stars the hard way: a history of 50 Wing RAF by Bertram Owen

After their withdrawal from Indochina the Wing had only a brief period of rest before taking part in operations against the Japanese air bases now being set up in Borneo. By late March the Wing was not much stronger than a squadron, and morale was low. Wing Commander Darke now demanded, and received, an assurance that they would not be employed in any more daylight operations. Instead, in late March a handful of planes took part in the first Australian intruder operation in the theatre.
The RAAF now had a Beaufighter squadron operating from Singapore, and they had evolved a new idea. Attacking Japanese air bases in Borneo had proven unprofitable - the enemy were experts in dispersing and camouflaging their machines. Fighting the enemy in the air was also a poor option - none of the Allied planes had the performance to engage IJA and IJN fighters on equal terms, and the Japanese reliably handed out more damage than they took. ‘The time to get them,’ wrote the Australian CO, ‘is when they are landing, or on the ground just after landing, before they can disperse and camouflage their planes.’ His Beaufighters were radar-equipped, and he meant to exploit this capability…
On 25th March the Japanese raided Singapore heavily in the late afternoon, on a day of patchy cloud. By this time the Eastern Fleet had retreated to Penang, but some ships were still in harbour, and this raid sank the Australian destroyer Waterhen. News of the raid was passed to Tebrau and the Australians took off. Six planes from 50 Wing joined them in the air.
The Beaufighters followed the Japanese bombers at a distance, keeping to cloud as far as possible, keeping in touch by radar in the gathering darkness. The Japanese reached their base at Singkawang, the escorting fighters landing first.
Two Beaufighters roared past and dropped flares, while the rest now increased power and made high-speed attacks runs against the bombers, who had slowed to land or were orbiting slowly prior to landing. Unprepared and unprotected, the bombers were easy targets for the heavy armament of the RAAF machines. The Australians claimed ten destroyed, and this seems to have been exactly correct, as confirmed by post-war Japanese records. They then broke off and returned to base without loss, guided in by radio beacons and flares dropped by 50 Wing.
This success made the Japanese much more cautious in their attacks on Singapore - ‘they don’t bomb after lunch any more,’ noted Air Marshal Peirse. The relief was considerable - and timely, as the lull in the East Indies was coming to an end. The same day as this raid, Bali fell, and the campaign in Java was about to commence.
 
Part 9.5
Extract from The Footsteps of History: the war diary of Eustace Marcel

March 27th 1942

There are days when one grows truly sick and tired of Algiers. The petty-mindedness of the men who strut on the stage, the men who would occupy the high places - well, I recall we had such days in Paris also. I was summoned at 8am to M. Mandel’s office, and he asked me to join him for his meeting - ‘M. Marcel, we need your knowledge of the situation in the Levant,’ he said, and of course I could not refuse, though I felt ill-prepared.
But the men who had come to see him, in fact, had no interest in the facts in the Levant, nor anywhere else, so I and the other Normaliens had little cause to speak.
The first of the visitors was the Lizard - so we all called him afterward - and he barely gave M. Mandel time to say a word. (Ed. in order to give a sense of the times, we have retained the names M. Marcel gave to these interlocutors, though their real names are now of course well known.) He was full of the sufferings of our people in the Hexagone, which we all know about as well as he does. The purpose was clear enough to me. He sought an admission of helplessness on M. Mandel’s part to achieve any immediate relief of the situation. At which point, of course, the Lizard would have made an impassioned speech, with many a dramatic gesture, as though he had made some kind of point. Rightly, M. Mandel simply repeated that we intended to make war by all means in our power until victory, and that our people understood this.
The Lizard being finally silenced, the Dormouse spoke up. For once, he was out of bed before noon. He complained at great length in his droning speech about the fall of Indochina, and the dissatisfaction of our people at our efforts to protect the place, and the failure of the English to do so. ‘We have seen no real advantage from this war,’ he concluded softly. ‘The Government cannot continue to give us platitudes while our Empire falls apart, picked apart by our supposed Allies as much as our enemies.’
Frankly I wished M. Mandel had opened the door, called the guards and had him arrested. But he maintained his countenance and pointed out that we had the assurance of London that Indochina would be restored, and with America now in the war, Japan could not hope to hold the place for long. The Dormouse, apparently exhausted by his efforts, relapsed into somnolence.
So this only left Green Waistcoat. He affected the pose of the candid friend, the one who recognised all the Government was doing, and its achievements, but favoured some lightening of the load. ‘Surely it is time for a broader base of support,’ he said. ‘There are many here who have the same ultimate goals, but who would pursue them more by diplomatic means, making use of our advantages.’
Of course M. Mandel had no illusions about the intent behind these words. Only last year Green Waistcoat was trying to pursue an independent policy of his own - talking loosely to Spanish diplomats about a deal whereby we would make peace in return for Germany ending its occupation and releasing our POWs. A nonsense, of course, but such manoeuvres have the function of appearing to be real initiatives, and acting as a disguise for the real agenda - surrender and betrayal. For the purpose of today’s conversation, Green Waistcoat was at the disadvantage of believing that we did not know about his half-treasonable activities. M. Mandel gave him a long speech, full of technical details, ignoring his arguments, then ended the meeting abruptly.
Afterwards he spoke to me and the others. ‘I have such meetings the more frequently since the war began in the East,’ he said. ‘Those three are fools, but there are many others, including some good men, who have become disheartened. They do not see, or truly appreciate, the fundamental strength of our position, and they confuse themselves with fantasies about brilliant diplomatic manoeuvres that would end the war immediately.’
‘But how to silence such talk?’ I asked. ‘Wishful thinking always appeals to the ignorant.’
He sighed softly. ‘I intend to make a public commitment to begin reclaiming the Fatherland this year. We think we can liberate Corsica. We need something solid to set against the fairy-story proposals of the factions. London has agreed to it, we hope Washington will soon agree also.’ At this news we were all silent. It is clear then that our great counter-offensive must commence soon, presumably this summer, even though the Americans have not arrived in force, and there may yet be more forfeits to pay in the East. I left the meeting, and the building, with a renewed sense of the tremendous weight of responsibilities our great men carry.
 
Ignorant as I am, I have no knowledge as to the real identity of the Dormouse, Lizard and Green Waistcoat. Nonetheless, it is a good little insight into how politics is working in Algiers.

Japan is forging forward, seemingly inexorably, but the wheels are wobbling. They haven't come off yet, but it's far less promising than OTL. They've lost more men and material, and gained less.

By my reckoning, Bali falling on 25th March puts the Japanese over a month behind schedule. In OTL, Java had fallen by now. It might well so so in this TL, too, but the extra time gives the Allies slightly more time to prepare, and slightly more time to bring in support. That should make the battle of Java slower and more costly for the Japanese. More friction in the gears. This then makes any future Sumatra campaign harder still. All this then impacts on Malaya, Singapore, Burma and beyond.

Due to the interlocking and sequential nature of the Japanese conquests of OTL, this added friction is a disaster in the making for them. They can't use troops for the next stage of they're not finished in the previous one. Then, when they do finish, there's less of them, they're more tired, and their equipment is harder used. Moreover, it's all given their enemies a bit more time. Said time may not have been used wisely of course, but it will in some cases, making the Japanese job yet harder. Similarly, the KB have said that they can't be everywhere, as they're looking at the USN on their port bow while keeping a weather eye on ABC from the starboard lookouts.

This all means that the turning point will happen sooner. I don't know whether it's enough to keep the IJA or if Singapore and Sumatra until the monsoons arrive. It might. It might not. I'm not sure whether the Japanese have crossed the Sittang River yet in TTL (and if the 17th Indian were cut off, as in OTL), but whatever happening in Burma won't be sped up by forces who've finished in the DEI and Malaya.

It all means that when the Japanese stop their advance, and start being pushed back, they'll be slightly closer to home, slightly weaker, and against slightly stronger opponents. Just how much each of those "slightly" entails is a matter for debate.
 
Ignorant as I am, I have no knowledge as to the real identity of the Dormouse, Lizard and Green Waistcoat.
I have no idea either, they symbolise the kind of factional intrigue that plagued the Third Republic. A mere detail like the conquest of their country isn't going to break the habits of a lifetime, for some people.
Bali falling on 25th March puts the Japanese over a month behind schedule. In OTL, Java had fallen by now. It might well so so in this TL, too, but the extra time gives the Allies slightly more time to prepare, and slightly more time to bring in support. That should make the battle of Java slower and more costly for the Japanese. More friction in the gears. This then makes any future Sumatra campaign harder still.
Friction and attrition, and every bit of friction and attrition makes for yet more friction and attrition. Mitzvah goreret mitzvah, from the Allied point of view; aveyrah goreret aveyrah from Tokyo's perspective.
This all means that the turning point will happen sooner. I don't know whether it's enough to keep the IJA or if Singapore and Sumatra until the monsoons arrive.
Bad weather will help slow the advance down. I suspect, though, that Allied resistance will play the major role, and the IJN and IJA will use bad weather as a convenient excuse for their own failings. Japanese air power is their high card, but IJA's air power is eroding fast, and the IJN want to preserve their air power for the Decisive Battle against the US fleet. Note that the desire for a decisive battle against the US fleet is something IJN officers have spent their lives planning for and, I would argue, desiring. This is their opportunity. You might say that puts the tactical/ operational cart before the strategic horse. Yes it does, and that's quite in keeping with Japanese decision-making in this period.
I'm not sure whether the Japanese have crossed the Sittang River yet in TTL
They haven't; their attention is elsewhere, and Thailand's attitude makes Burma inaccessible.
 
Part 9.6
Extract from ch.8, The Gray Waves: a history of the Battle of the Atlantic, Walter Schluter

Several factors combined in the genesis of operation SPORTPALAST. The successes of the U-boats in operation PAUKENSCHLAG had prompted unfavourable comparisons in Berlin between the subs and the surface fleet. Admiral Raeder was keen to counteract such talk. The Army had also criticised the Navy for the amount of aid flowing to the USSR via the Arctic route, apparently without hindrance. In February Kriegsmarine intelligence had broken the British naval code, which gave increased confidence that the major surface units could be employed without excessive risk. The war in the Far East had drawn Allied reinforcements, and the balance of forces was as favourable as it was ever likely to be.

The chosen target was convoy PQ13. Bismarck and Tirpitz had moved to northern Norway a few weeks earlier, and had intended to attack PQ12, but Bismarck suffered a minor collision in February. Damage was minor and swiftly repaired, so PQ13 became the target. The Allies had an inkling of this, though no positive proof, and so PQ13 had a strong covering force comprising the most modern capital ships of the Home Fleet, King George V and Duke of York together with the Ark Royal. Admiral Ciliax became aware of this not long after leaving port, and his operations over the next few days were circumspect. In the event neither force encountered the other, though aircraft from the Ark Royal found and attacked the pair as they returned to base, though in weather conditions that made their attacks ineffective. PQ13 suffered some losses to U-boats, but reached Russia without further molestation.

This had however been at least in part a distraction. Scharnhorst and Gneisenau set out for another Atlantic sortie on March 24th. They went undetected until spotted fortuitously by an American aircraft heading for Iceland. The following day they fell in with an independently sailing merchantman and sank her. Admiral Somerville now took the Home Fleet’s fast hunters, Force Y, comprising Richelieu, Renown and Indomitable, to sea, and began a long pursuit.

The North Atlantic had become a riskier place for German ships in the year since the Twins’ last sortie. However, German code-breaking achievements seemed to offer the prospect of a successful raid. Reading the British naval codes had revealed the presence of a fast HX convoy, escorted by the small carrier Hermes, and signal traffic also indicated that the Hood was expected to return from its refit in the USA, but would be too far from the scene to affect events. The Force du Raid was known to be at Dakar. The Revenge was also escorting a convoy, well away to the south. Admiral Lutjens believed that, equipped with this knowledge, he could evade danger, attack the HX convoy and escape either back to Norway or to Brest. But his intelligence picture, though accurate, was incomplete. Lutjens did not know that Hood was crossing the Atlantic in company with USS Washington and Wasp, while a Morocco convoy was also at sea with the small carrier Bearn in company.

The British were the first to discover the dangers of limited intelligence information. On March 26th the German ships sank two more independent merchantmen, the latter of which sent a sighting report. However, owing to an error in transmission, the sighting report placed the German ships more than 100 miles north of their actual position. The HX convoy continued on its route, unaware that its course would enable the Germans to intercept the next morning.
As the sun rose between patchy cloud on the 27th the Hermes launched two Swordfish on anti-submarine patrol, who were first astonished then horrified to see, a few miles north-east, the German battlecruisers. The wind was from the north, so to launch more aircraft Hermes had to steer almost directly towards them. Without hesitation she did so, and launched as many Swordfish as she could before the Germans brought her under fire.

The planes could do little harm to the battlecruisers, as they were armed only with depth-charges - accounts differ as to whether there were even any torpedoes on board, but in any case, there would have been no time to arm the planes. The Scharnhorst however could harm the carrier easily, and left her stopped and burning with several salvoes of accurate gunfire. The Gneisenau meanwhile sank two of the escorts that attempted to screen the carrier with smoke. The handful of Swordfish that had got away had to seek friendly vessels to ditch next to.


This sacrificial action saved all but five of the convoy’s merchant ships. The sighting report - this time accurate - also gave vital information to the Admiralty. The Wasp launched scouting missions with her Vindicator scout-bombers throughout that day and the next, which were finally rewarded with a sighting. Washington and Hood now put on all speed to make an interception - which if the Germans maintained course would be during the small hours of the 29th.

However the Wasp’s aircraft had been spotted, and apparently interpreted as being British aircraft from the Indomitable. The battlecruisers turned sharply to the south-east, and the 29th did not bring the intended encounter. Instead it brought yet more Vindicator search aircraft, this time from Bearn, ironically enough on its last war voyage - her machinery was so worn that it was intended to mothball her once she completed this trip. First she performed a critical service to the Allied cause. ‘The whole ocean seemed crawling with the enemy,’ complained the Gneisenau’s captain, ‘it became clear that surface operations by major units had become excessively dangerous.’

The Bearn had a handful of bombs aboard, and six of her Vindicators found and attacked the battlecruisers in the late afternoon. No hits were scored, and four aircraft were lost - a sign of the danger of employing these old bombers against modern AA. However, once again, the German ships changed course away from the perceived threat, despite the risk of proximity to Force Y; by this time Admiral Lutjens had little faith in the intelligence reports.

In fact they were still accurate. Guided by the Bearn’s reports, Force Y closed in to strike range during the night, and on 30th Indomitable’s Albacores made a co-ordinated torpedo attack, hitting Scharnhorst twice. One hit caused little damage, but the other damaged her bow and slowed her to fifteen knots. It was immediately apparent that this would be fatal: Lutjens ordered Gneisenau to escape at her best speed, and awaited the inevitable interception by Force Y. Richelieu caught up and opened fire at midnight, closely followed by the Renown, for whom this was third time lucky. By dawn it was all over, and the Allied ships picked up 130 survivors before leaving the scene, for fear of U-boats.

‘More evidence that the U-boat war is the right one,’ noted Admiral Doenitz, barely concealing his satisfaction. Prime Minister Churchill messaged to President Roosevelt, ‘A signal success for Allied co-operation. Many thanks for the splendid efforts of your Navy fliers.’ Admiral Godfroy commented, ‘A glorious last hurrah for the Bearn. This is more evidence, were it needed, that we made the right choice about the Jean Bart.’ Hitler’s reaction was one of exasperation. ‘The big ships just make bigger targets. We should scrap them, or turn them into museums.’ Admiral Raeder had to argue for the rest of the year to prevent the scrapping of the remaining capital ships. As it was, the Allies now felt confident about their superiority in the North Atlantic and Arctic. Therefore the Hood and Washington would not remain with the Home Fleet for long.
 
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Part 10.1
Part 10. Des reflets changeants sous la pluie

Extract from ch.7, A Life for the Sky, by Werner Molders

By the beginning of ‘42, many of our people had grown quite comfortable in Martinique, and I could see the symptoms in myself also. The climate agreed with us, we found the landscape beautiful, as also many of the women - though these last, like the mountains, we could only admire from a distance. Some of the old-timers used to joke that maybe it was just as well - maybe the women were volcanic too. At any rate, our captors permitted the most well-behaved of us, if Catholic, to go to Mass in the Cathedral occasionally - I think they had some idea of civilising us.

Our route into town took us close enough to the airfield that we sometimes saw planes taking off or landing. We saw mostly twin-engined types, used, I imagine, for hunting U-boats, or maybe they were being ferried to Africa. ‘Good-looking machines the Frogs have,’ said Karl one day as we marched. ‘American, no?’
‘All their planes are American now,’ I said. ‘Good machines, it’s true - fast and well-made.’
‘I had a shot at one once,’ said Reinhard. ‘I know I hit it, enough to knock it down I thought, but it sort of shrugged and dived away like a fighter.’
We marched along quietly for a while, occasionally glancing at the girls, though the guards discouraged this with prods from their rifles. ‘Supposed to be going to get holy, Fritz,’ said Gabriel, the old one-eyed guard. ‘No time for impure thoughts.’
‘You’re hardly a one to talk about impure thoughts,’ replied Karl. All of us were pretty fluent in French by this time. ‘I’ve seen you eyeing them up.’
‘Who’s in charge, though?’ he replied, and gave him a shove. It never paid to needle them.

On our way back I took good note of where the planes were parked. Near the perimeter, I saw prime-movers towing a couple of machines into place, they seemed to bring them there to warm up the engines. When we got back to the camp, I took Karl and Reinhard into confidence and talked about my ideas.
‘Crazy Werner,’ said Karl, ‘not a chance. Even if we could get out of this cage, even if we could sneak in to the airfield and steal a plane, where could we go?’
‘We need to be good boys even if it hurts,’ I said. ‘First thing, we should get permission to start a library.’
Reinhard grinned. ‘Crazy maybe,’ he said, ‘but still better than going crazy sitting doing nothing. I’m in.’
 
Part 10.2
Extract from ch.8, The Fall of the Rising Sun, Brendan Green

The battle for Java saw the qualities of the Australians on display. ‘The good spirit of the Australian fighting man,’ said Wavell, ‘was shown many times in this war, and they gained many famous victories. But to my mind they never did better than in this defeat. They knew as well as I that we could not hold the island, and they fought with very little air cover, with little artillery or armour. They knew, moreover, that even once their ordeal in Java concluded, there would be more fighting to come. Despite all this, they maintained their discipline, and never failed to hold their positions for as long as ordered. This 9th Division ranks with Napoleon’s Old Guard and Caesar’s Thirteenth Legion.’
Throughout late March and most of April, the 9th fought successive delaying actions and rearguard actions, before falling back into Sumatra. The Javanese mostly welcomed the invaders - the true nature of the Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere had not yet become apparent to them. Batavia fell on April 22nd, held to the last by a handful of devoted Dutch KNIL troops, whose sacrifice in protecting the escape of 9th Division should be remembered.

Despite this latest victory, General Imamura had become extremely anxious about the pace of operations. The audacious US raid on Tokyo a few days earlier had shocked everyone in the High Command. ‘Our air power in the Southern Resource Area approaches breaking point,’ he noted. ‘In order to achieve air superiority over Sumatra, we need the Navy. But they are now impatient to fight the Americans.’
The general sense of the Navy high command was that by allowing the Americans to raid Tokyo, and for their ships then to get away, they had failed the Emperor. The need for a decisive battle against the Americans in the central Pacific was now their top priority. First, though, the Navy was willing to commit a carrier division to the Sumatra operation. The Army believed that they had rough parity in the air with the British and Australians; they needed carrier-based planes to give them the edge. Accordingly, Carrier Division 5 went to the Java Sea accompanied by two Kongo-class fast battleships for support.

‘I had many anxieties as April drew to a close,’ wrote Wavell later. ‘My staff believed that the enemy might land on the west coast of Sumatra. Fortunately, they did not risk sending their transports past Krakatoa.’ In fact, Cunningham had stationed several Dutch, French and US submarines to intercept any such move. ‘We also feared landings on the small islands to the east of Sumatra,’ Wavell went on, ‘where for the most part we had few troops. They might have given the Japanese bases much closer to Palembang. We had one Australian brigade on Bangka, and that was it.’

By contrast, the new man in command of the ground forces exuded confidence. ‘Brother Jap has got this far by bluff and air power,’ said General Montgomery. ‘We will not be bluffed and we now fear nothing in the air.’ His manner had offended many officers, who felt their efforts over the previous four desperate months were being disparaged; but the troops in the main liked him better than Percival. He had Australian 9th Division, just escaped from Java and now reunited with its artillery, and eager for a chance to avenge itself on the Japanese. He also had the fresh British 6th Division, and 1st Army Tank Brigade. He also had the remnants of Australian 8th Division; one of its brigades, the worst hit, he broke up to provide replacements for the 9th, retaining one battalion to defend Palembang. The other brigade was the one positioned on Bangka island. These actions caused him some difficulty with the Australian government, which wished to withdraw 8th Division and bring it up to strength; but the operational imperative in the end won out.

...in the end the Japanese assault, commencing on 29th April, was fairly orthodox, with two divisions, 48th and 38th, landing on the east coast of Sumatra. Not all could be landed at once, as landing craft were by now running short. ‘We had hoped to also use 2nd Division from Borneo to land near Parit, on the east coast,’ commented Imamura later. ‘But we could not, as that would be within range of enemy aircraft from Singapore as well as Palembang, and by now we also faced a great shortage of landing craft.’

The Japanese also employed an airborne battalion. The plan was for them to follow up a heavy air raid on Palembang with a direct assault. ‘Even if not fully successful,’ said Imamura, ‘we hoped this would disrupt enemy air operations on the crucial first day.’ The result was memorably recorded by Alan Moorehead, who was at the airfield on the day. ‘It reminded one unavoidably of the stories of the Germans on Corsica, and the Italian parachutists falling to their doom in Thessaly,’ he wrote. ‘Enemy bombers appeared early that day, but we had enough early warning to get fighters into the air, and the base was ringed with flak. I saw two or three bombers going down in flames, and the fighter pilots later told me they had shot down several more over the jungle. It therefore astonished us when, an hour or so later, enemy transport planes flew slowly towards us and paratroopers started to emerge.’ The result was a one-sided battle that was over by lunchtime, with the entire paratroop battalion wiped out. ‘The Japanese also lost more than thirty aircraft in this attack, which they could certainly have better used elsewhere,’ wrote Air Marshal Peirse. ‘After this, and the examples of Corsica and Thessaly, I hope we learn appropriate lessons about the ineffectiveness of paratroop attacks.’

The IJN carriers in the Java Sea launched two heavy raids on 29th, and two more on the 30th. These did great damage to the RAF and RAAF airstrips in the south-east, which were much less well protected than Palembang. At least twenty aircraft were destroyed on the ground, for little loss among the IJN air groups. The IJN dive-bombers also sank a group of destroyers that were passing between Sumatra and Bangka in the hope of attacking the transports; there would be no repeat of the Bali Sea battle.

However, the IJN could not develop the use of its air power to its fullest extent, as Admiral Hara insisted on withdrawing well to the east by night, fearing night torpedo attack. The location of the Eastern Fleet concerned him greatly, though in fact it was well to the north, ‘loitering with intent in the Malacca Straits’, in Cunningham’s words. This proved costly - the submarine I-19 torpedoed and sank the Repulse on the night of the 29th after she had straggled owing to mechanical problems. However, I-19 never had chance to send a report of its success, being sunk almost immediately by British and American destroyers. Hara therefore remained in ignorance of Eastern Fleet’s strength, location and intentions, and this evidently weighed on his decision-making.

Cunningham did not plan to risk his main force, however, unless the situation became desperate. At this point he had only Formidable and the hastily patched-up Victorious available, with barely fifty serviceable aircraft. Instead, he had sent his T-class submarines into the Java Sea, and six of them were waiting for an opportunity to strike. The pattern of IJN operations - approaching Sumatra for air raids in the morning, then retreating eastwards before dusk - became apparent rapidly, enabling the T-boats to assume an ambush position. In the event, just before midnight on the 30th, Trusty had the opportunity of seeing the enemy pass before its bows, and hit the Hiei with three torpedoes. The Japanese counter-attack missed the Trusty but caught and sank the Thunderbolt. Initially the Hiei appeared to have avoided fatal damage. However, in the small hours she suffered an internal explosion and sank not long afterwards.
As far as Hara was concerned, this was enough. ‘The Army had reported that its landings were successful,’ he reported later, ‘and in view of the ongoing threat from enemy submarines and aircraft, I believed the Navy had played its part.’ He therefore withdrew to Surabaya. Hara’s comments were typical of the buck-passing and sniping that characterised relations between the IJN and IJA, a tendency that the pressure of war had only intensified. In fact the Army’s operations on Sumatra were not going well, though they did not wish to confide this fact to the IJN.

‘I never worried about anything in the war more than the fighting on 29th and 30th April,’ wrote Wavell later. ‘With hindsight, I can see my fears were overblown and General Montgomery’s appreciation was correct. The enemy had no overall superiority in numbers, and a distinct inferiority in armour. Where our armour was able to get into action they proved very effective.’ The biggest of the very few tank battles of the DEI campaign occurred on the 30th, when a troop of Matildas engaged eight Japanese light tanks near Ketapang, knocking out six of them without loss.
‘The enemy also lacked the other crucial ingredients for effective amphibious landings,’ Wavell went on, ‘since naval gunfire support was mostly lacking, and above all the enemy had only local and temporary air superiority. Indeed by night we had the advantage.’ Radar-equipped Beaufighters, Swordfish and Wellingtons raided the Japanese invasion fleet’s anchorages on the first two nights, disrupting their operations and damaging several vessels. ‘By sundown on May 3rd,’ he concluded, ‘I no longer had doubts of the outcome.’ Fighting would continue on and near the coast for another week, the Japanese proving very tenacious. ‘They just won’t surrender,’ commented one Australian officer. ‘Mind you, in any case, we might not be all that interested in capturing any of those 38th Division bludgers. We know what they did in Hong Kong.’

By the end of the first week of May, a lull of exhaustion settled over the entire south-east Asian theatre. The Allies licked their many wounds and continued to strengthen their defences. The Japanese for their part turned their attention to the Pacific, where the vast naval battles of the summer were about to unfold. As it proved, the IJN would never return in force to the DEI region.
 
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‘After this, and the examples of Corsica and Thessaly, I hope we learn appropriate lessons about the ineffectiveness of paratroop attacks.’
Maybe this will butterfly away certain airbone operations in D-Day and/or Market Garden? Assuming those still happen, of course.
 

Driftless

Donor
Maybe this will butterfly away certain airbone operations in D-Day and/or Market Garden? Assuming those still happen, of course.

True enough, but there's always that element of human nature that thinks "I know more than those idiots. I'm brilliant and I've got this figured out" :eek: :biggrin:
 
True enough, but there's always that element of human nature that thinks "I know more than those idiots. I'm brilliant and I've got this figured out" :eek: :biggrin:
"Various Axis operations have given rise to the popular misconception that airborne forces achieve little at high cost. Hidebound traditionalists in high places have therefore opposed the expansion of our airborne arm. However a close analysis of Axis airborne operations shows several key factors which do not affect our forces, and therefore we remain confident that under the right circumstances successes can be obtained. The most important such factor is that we intend to employ airborne formations on a much larger scale..."
Sharp learning curve ahead for the men writing memos like that. The Med theatre OTL saw several dreadful fiascos befall Allied airborne troops: at least some will still happen.
 
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