Essai en Guerre: an FFO-inspired TL

Part 10.3
Extract from ch.10 of To the stars the hard way: a history of 50 Wing RAF by Bertram Owen

The very last operation of the Wing in the East came on May 6th - an abortive dusk mission against reported Japanese ships near Bangka, which turned out to be a wild goose chase. Tragedy struck on the return to Palembang in the darkness in which two Blenheims collided, killing all aboard both aircraft, including Squadron Leader Finch. The next day news came of his DSO.

The Wing withdrew to Burma and handed over its remaining aircraft to the RIAF; the personnel would receive extended leave. When 50 Wing re-formed in the Med many months later, it would be unrecognisable. ‘All the old faces are gone,’ wrote Squadron Leader Maxwell. ‘Not only the old faces, but most of the new ones too.’ The Wing left Sumatra with less than twenty aircraft operational; they had possessed fifty at the outbreak of the war in the East, and had received as many again as replacements. It is therefore reasonable to say that they had suffered over 80% casualties.

The Wing was perhaps the greatest sufferer out of all the RAF and RAAF units employed in this campaign. Historians have struggled to compute overall air casualties, as many records are fragmentary, especially for the French and Japanese. Furthermore there are many different methods of counting which have produced varying estimates. We can say with some certainty that the French lost almost all of the 300 planes which they had in Indochina at the outset. The RAF lost nearly a hundred there, as many more in Borneo, and at least as many in the fighting over Singapore, Java and Sumatra. All told RAF losses cannot have been less than 400, though probably not as high as the 600 given by some historians. The Dutch air force in the DEI was wiped out, as were most of the US aircraft which escaped the Philippines. The RAAF and RNZAF suffered about a hundred losses, and the FAA nearly as many. All told, therefore, an estimate of some 900-1000 Allied aircraft written off in Indochina and the DEI seems reasonable. Many of these - at least one-third - were lost on the ground, either destroyed outright, or damaged and abandoned.

Japanese losses were certainly lighter, partly because, being on the offensive, they did not lose damaged aircraft when airfields were abandoned. Accidents, often arising from bad weather, contributed much to the casualties - though probably not as major as in Imamura’s estimation that they made up a majority of IJAAF losses. Japanese aircraft often found themselves damaged and returning to austere airbases in poor weather; it’s not clear how many of the resulting crashes are counted as accidents, as opposed to enemy action. The figures are complicated by other uncertainties, for example about whether aircraft damaged and left behind in Borneo, Bali and elsewhere were ever repaired. Most writers agree on a figure between 600 and 700 losses for IJA and IJN combined.

In any case, there was no doubt of the result; vast conquests by the Japanese, though falling short of their most ambitious goals, and a lull of exhaustion in the region, broken only by air raids and the small-scale but vicious fighting of coastal forces among the waters and islands between Singapore and Sumatra on the one side, and Borneo and Java on the other. The situation persisted for many months, as did the apparent stalemate in the South Pacific theatre. At the time the Allied governments expressed some dissatisfaction with the absence of movement. In retrospect it is clear that the air battles of these months, and the large attrition suffered simply in transferring aircraft from Japan to the fronts, saw the decisive attrition of Japan’s most experienced air units.
 
In retrospect it is clear that the air battles of these months, and the large attrition suffered simply in transferring aircraft from Japan to the fronts, saw the decisive attrition of Japan’s most experienced air units.
Rather like the OTL Solomons campaign?

BTW, Japan has a nasty problem. They went south for oil, and they have taken the Borneo oil. But there are Allied bases within 1,200 km of both Brunei and Balikpapan, whereas in OTL the Japanese secured the entire region.
 
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Rather like the OTL Solomons campaign?
Yes, in terms of its effects on Japanese air power. In fact, I don't think the Japanese will get very far, if at all, into the Solomons - certainly not Guadalcanal. The ATL equivalent will focus on islands further north, around Bougainville and New Britain, and Japanese air attrition there will be, if anything, worse than the attrition they suffer in the Singapore theatre. The New Guinea campaign I imagine will go much as OTL, but with the heavier commitment (and attrition) of IJN assets in the south-west, operation MO probably gets butterflied, so no Coral Sea battle.
BTW, Japan has a nasty problem. They went south for oil, and they have taken the Borneo oil. But there are Allied bases within 1,200 km of both Brunei and Balikpapan, whereas in OTL the Japanese secured the entire region.
1200km puts them within easy reach of T-boats and Wellingtons operating from Singapore. The Japanese will discover that controlling oil fields is no panacea if the enemy can interdict the supply route back to the home islands. In fact, they knew that, hence their need to control the Philippines; otherwise their Southern Resource Area would exist only on American sufferance. Since Tokyo's war aim was strategic freedom from the US, that meant they effectively had to take the Philippines. Scenarios in which Tokyo just attacks the European colonial empires in SE Asia are therefore highly improbable - they assumed, probably correctly, that an attack on the European empires must mean a war with the US sooner or later, probably sooner. And since the IJN was addicted to the notion of a surprise attack at the outset to offset the enemy's superior power (i.e. they wanted to re-run Port Arthur against the US), they had to fight everyone at once. I'm not saying, of course, that was a good choice, merely the best one available once they had committed themselves to the Southern Operation. The tactical/ operational tail was wagging the strategic/ diplomatic dog.
 
Part 10.4
Memorandum from Prime Minister to General Alexander, 21st May 1942

...4. You cannot expect any large transfer of forces from the East in the near future, other than possibly the Illustrious. The next two months will see large reinforcements reach you from Britain. Therefore before the launch of CHARLEMAGNE you will have two further infantry divisions and one armoured brigade, with the 51st and the Canadians to follow. This brings your forces for CHARLEMAGNE up to six divisions, increasing to eight over time, besides armoured brigades and paratroops. The French forces should be similar in size. Given the known enemy strength, we cannot understand why your staff should believe this insufficient.

5. We expect to enjoy air superiority, as the French have overcome their serviceability problems, and will have six hundred modern combat types in the zone of operations. All of these are American types including the latest P-38s and B-24s, which the French demonstrated to us recently. We understand that this means the French will take the lead in the air operations, and you have some nervous officers who do not trust the French. This is not in the spirit of the Union, and we should show more faith in their fighting abilities.

6. In any case British Air will not be lacking. We have now sent Spitfires to your theatre for the first time, they will pose a serious threat to the Italians. The favourable turn of events in the Atlantic means we will also send Indomitable to you, so you will have three carriers in your support. These are being or already have been re-equipped with new American types, which the Admiralty believe will greatly enhance their power. You will also have four battleships to give super-heavy naval gunfire support.

7. M. Mandel believes it a political necessity to strike a heavy blow by land before US forces arrive in large numbers. Also essential to him to begin redeeming French territory in Europe by the end of the year. Loss of FIC has hurt him, the bad old French political habits of intrigue have resumed. Therefore we cannot wait beyond July to commence CHARLEMAGNE.

8. We realise here what a trial the past several months have been to you, having had to put your offensive plans on hold, seeing the loss of Thessaly and the stripping of your theatre for the defence of the East. However, day now dawns.
 
Surely we don’t expect much guerilla resistance from Vietnamese?
I know this is old, but:

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I am more than a little concerned by the assumption that 600 modern combat aircraft, based at significant range from the area of operations, is enough to ensure air superiority. Husky was done with 4500 aircraft, at least half of which were modern combat types. Obviously they're in a rush but I can see this going horribly sideways if the Union is unlucky.

Is the Lockheed Model 322.C1 (As I assume the Lightning will be) order all being delivered in the horrible, horrible Lightning I configuration with all of the good bits of the aircraft removed or have the AdA come to their senses and switched much of their order to P-38E standard like the RAF tried to? The original variant is almost completely worthless as a fighter although it was historically used as a conversion trainer and I'm sure that in a pinch they'll be fine for strike work.
 
I am more than a little concerned by the assumption that 600 modern combat aircraft, based at significant range from the area of operations, is enough to ensure air superiority. Husky was done with 4500 aircraft, at least half of which were modern combat types. Obviously they're in a rush but I can see this going horribly sideways if the Union is unlucky.
600 is the AdA contribution, the RAF and FAA combined will have nearly as many (say 500). It's not remotely as good as HUSKY, but probably they will not face quite as much opposition (with the Luftwaffe's Mediterranean efforts focussed on Greece). This, at any rate, is one of my assumptions, but this TL (like any TL) tries to model the might-have-beens, and challenge to assumptions improves any model.
In-story, I suggest that Mr. Churchill had a certain lingering difficulty in comprehending how all-encompassing air war had become. Over a thousand modern aircraft deployed to the Med must have seemed an enormous number to him, only a couple of years earlier Fighter Command had won the BoB with far fewer.
I guess therefore that the Allies will gain air superiority, though not as quickly or completely as OTL. This will have its effects on the pace of ground operations.
Is the Lockheed Model 322.C1 (As I assume the Lightning will be) order all being delivered in the horrible, horrible Lightning I configuration with all of the good bits of the aircraft removed or have the AdA come to their senses and switched much of their order to P-38E standard like the RAF tried to? The original variant is almost completely worthless as a fighter although it was historically used as a conversion trainer and I'm sure that in a pinch they'll be fine for strike work.
I strongly suspect horrible Lightning I is what they've got, sadly, which might taint the reputation of the Lightning going forward. Luckily the AdA also has lots of H81s (P40s). Earlier in the thread we had some discussion about the possibilities of the AdA orders affecting US development. A poor experience with the Lightning might give an incentive to experimenting with the Mustang. Basically the AdA has come a long way since 1940 but still has some way to go.
 
That's a fair point, in May 1942 of this timeline there's probably very little German air power in the Med, it all being concentrated for Case Blue. I suppose that Italian production and resources will be in an even sadder state than they were OTL, so overall it's just going to be a smaller fight than Husky. I don't think you're misjudging FBU capabilities here, I'm just conscious that the smaller the amount of forces involved the greater an impact random happenstance can have.
 
Yes, in terms of its effects on Japanese air power. In fact, I don't think the Japanese will get very far, if at all, into the Solomons - certainly not Guadalcanal. The ATL equivalent will focus on islands further north, around Bougainville and New Britain, and Japanese air attrition there will be, if anything, worse than the attrition they suffer in the Singapore theatre. The New Guinea campaign I imagine will go much as OTL, but with the heavier commitment (and attrition) of IJN assets in the south-west, operation MO probably gets butterflied, so no Coral Sea battle.

1200km puts them within easy reach of T-boats and Wellingtons operating from Singapore. The Japanese will discover that controlling oil fields is no panacea if the enemy can interdict the supply route back to the home islands. In fact, they knew that, hence their need to control the Philippines; otherwise their Southern Resource Area would exist only on American sufferance. Since Tokyo's war aim was strategic freedom from the US, that meant they effectively had to take the Philippines. Scenarios in which Tokyo just attacks the European colonial empires in SE Asia are therefore highly improbable - they assumed, probably correctly, that an attack on the European empires must mean a war with the US sooner or later, probably sooner. And since the IJN was addicted to the notion of a surprise attack at the outset to offset the enemy's superior power (i.e. they wanted to re-run Port Arthur against the US), they had to fight everyone at once. I'm not saying, of course, that was a good choice, merely the best one available once they had committed themselves to the Southern Operation. The tactical/ operational tail was wagging the strategic/ diplomatic dog.
When does MacArthur start (trying to) ru(i)n everything?
 

Driftless

Donor
Maybe he was killed in the trenches of WWI in TTL...butterfly!
That was a real possibility.

Patton was quoted that both he an d Mac encountered the other on a WW1 battlefield as a creeping barrage was closing in on them. Manly bravado kept both men standing upright as the barrage passed them by. Patton ascribed their survival to luck.
 
That was a real possibility.

Patton was quoted that both he an d Mac encountered the other on a WW1 battlefield as a creeping barrage was closing in on them. Manly bravado kept both men standing upright as the barrage passed them by. Patton ascribed their survival to luck.
Macarthur seems to have been incapable of physical fear. During WW I, he made a point of getting all his work as divisional chief of staff done early so he could go off on trench raids. At Corregidor, his staff had to stop him going for walks on Topside despite the more or less continuous Japanese bombardment. During the Philippines campaign, he visited the front lines with a staff group that included 8th Army CO Eichelberger. The group came under a burst of long-range machine gun fire, and everyone went to ground - except Macarthur, who just stood there looking puzzled.
 
Macarthur seems to have been incapable of physical fear. During WW I, he made a point of getting all his work as divisional chief of staff done early so he could go off on trench raids. At Corregidor, his staff had to stop him going for walks on Topside despite the more or less continuous Japanese bombardment. During the Philippines campaign, he visited the front lines with a staff group that included 8th Army CO Eichelberger. The group came under a burst of long-range machine gun fire, and everyone went to ground - except Macarthur, who just stood there looking puzzled.

Huh, never heard those stories, point for the man I suppose.
 
Better then cowering in a bunker behind the line.
Both a strawman and a false dichotomy.

The strawman is your raising the idea of cowering in bunker behind the line. I never suggested this, nor did anyone else in this discussion.

The false dichotomy is the idea that cowering in a bunker behind lines is the other option. There are more and better choices than either cowering in a bunker behind the line or needlessly exposing yourself to enemy fire. Militaries teach their people not to expose themselves senselessly to fire.
 
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Look I understand Macarthur is hardly a popular General. It has to be remembered for all his failures he was awarded the MOH and numerous other citations for gallantry. His West Point changes likely resulted in better Officers in the long run.

His single biggest failing was an inability to see that he was not right all the time and some decisions had severe ramifications. If he had defended the Philippine's I am sure he would be remembered more fondly. Here in Australia he is not loved but not reviled either.
 
The strawman is your raising the idea of cowering in bunker behind the line. I never suggested this, nor did anyone else.
Aside from the legions who continually use the epithet "Dugout Doug".

Bravery is not the totality of military competence. Lord Cardigan rode at the head of his Light Brigade at Balaclava, all the way to the Russian guns.

But it shouldn't be sneered at or denied. The insinuation that Macarthur was a psychopath is cheap.

There is plenty to criticize Macarthur for without that kind of thing.
 
Aside from the legions who continually use the epithet "Dugout Doug".

Bravery is not the totality of military competence. Lord Cardigan rode at the head of his Light Brigade at Balaclava, all the way to the Russian guns.

But it shouldn't be sneered at or denied. The insinuation that Macarthur was a psychopath is cheap.

There is plenty to criticize Macarthur for without that kind of thing.
So many truculent conclusions in such a short post.

I shoud have written in a more specically that "I never suggested this, nor did anyone else in this discussion.." Most readers would be able to understand that meaning was implied unless they were intent on being truculent and raising more strawman. I'll go back and change that so no can erect another straw man.

Further, your post's claim that "the legions who continually use the epithet 'Dugout Doug'" makes little sense and is another strawman. I don't think the "legions" of critics of MacArthur feel the choices available to military are limited to either personnel needlessly exposing themselves to fire or to cowering in a bunker behind the lines.

If you want to draw the conclusion my post insinunated MacArthur was a psychopath, I can't stop you from reaching that conclusion. But my post never stated MacArthur was a psycopath. The insinuation is in your mind. My post merely points out that the lack a normal fear response in its self shouldn't be regarded as a "plus" in itself, as certain people can lack a normal response, with psychopaths being the example I gave. The point I was raising is that we shouldn't cite a person's needlessly expose themselves to danger as a virtue.

I suppose you'll next try to claim that my pointing out that militaries train their personnel to avoid exposing themselves needlessly to enemy fire means my post cheaply insinuated MacArthur didn't value military training.
 
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