Central Powers victory map 1920.

[Paradoxer]

Belarusian nationalism was never very widespread or particularly powerful. Ukrainian nationalism was big during the Russian Civil War but cooperation with Germany seriously harmed their credibility in the eyes of the Ukrainian people, weakening their hold on power. Honestly it's a bit ridiculous to call yourself a nationalist while facilitating your nation being turned into a German colony.

Depending who wins civil war or what Germany involvement in it is I could see them give back Ukraine to Russia minus Crimea. Romania gets Moldova plus Odessa in exchange they have to permanently renounce any claims to lands in Transylvania or that Austria holds.

There was a Belarussian nationalist movement during the civil war and the German government wouldn't allow the Polish to have too much territory as they would not want them to be too powerful. Also, Ukrainian nationalism was very big during the cvil war, both Belarussian and Ukrainian natioanlists would revieve continued German support. You could also apply the same logic about a Russian population explosion to Ukraine and Belarus, execpt it would be greater due to there not being a Holodomor or Hunger plan by the nazis (which affected those region more.)

Poland is extended East into its Ukraine claims. This does multiple things for Germans benefit. One creates buffer from getting rid of Ukraine and Belarus. Two gives a place to deport Poles or “encouraged” them to move out of German Prussia to help Germanized that region.

The Baltic acts as staging base if Russia ever tries anything thing especially if Germans installed semi dependent weak pro German regime during civil war then the capital might be in St Petersburg’s and German military not stationed far off.

Also give pro German Finland all of Karelia, Murmansk, and everything north of St. Petersburg. Let Russians keep rest of its empire especially in Asia to help Germany project more across Eurasia especially if British take out defeat in ww1 in Ottomans to get something out of war. Might have to throw them under bus(ottomans).

Japanese are interesting because I see them playing both sides and “seeing weakness” on British behalf if Germany wins. Might get bold and even flip sides or strike deals with Germans who can’t really project in Far East especially if Japanese refuse to give back their colonial holding there. Maybe force French and Russian to concede to land to Japanese and concede more to them in China so they are least cordial with them and start turning against former entente(mostly France and Russia. Maybe Dutch. They might still be timid to test British navy).

 

[Nivek]

Romania gets Moldova plus Odessa in exchange they have to permanently renounce any claims to lands in Transylvania or that Austria holds.

Moldova yes, Odessa not a chance in hell, that is pure Ukrainian territory and they would benefit their new vassal

 

[Paradoxer]

Moldova yes, Odessa not a chance in hell, that is pure Ukrainian territory and they would benefit their new vassal

I said they only give Odessa to Romania if they gave back rest of Ukraine to Russia(minus Polish claims that goes to that puppet and Crimea which Germans directly control. Don’t want to give Russians too many concessions and rather keep borders more East and away from core. The Crimea would be easy to defend too.

I really do think Germany going to at least get indirectly involved in Russian Civil. Send “volunteers”(plus private paramilitary/Friekorps and vets looking for work). Plus advisors and aid while possibly organizing its own army out of its puppets and refugees/exiles fleeing civil war especially anti bolshevik groups

Think Bay of Pigs but times 100 and across a very un defendable border in middle of civil war with world largely against communist. They can easily have “partisans” and anti bolsheviks conduct across border raids or attacks which prolongs conflicts when they are right on Russia door step. Fund whites Which gives them time to build their own third fraction into war “black army”. Go after bolsheviks first and that alone probably puts them in more dominant position within new regime then whites

Maybe depending on pod a special force operations or smaller land mass helps one or two of the royal tsar kids flee to German lines. But that be lucky golden goose for Germany. Germany either installs one of kids who planned to be married to German prince on throne or just install new dynasty from one of many German families. Maybe Baltic one. Probably power much more limited then former tsar but probably not fully democratic either

 

[Admiral Spaun]

Depending who wins civil war or what Germany involvement in it is I could see them give back Ukraine to Russia minus Crimea. Romania gets Moldova plus Odessa in exchange they have to permanently renounce any claims to lands in Transylvania or that Austria holds.

I don't think an independent Crimea is a viable option without an independent Ukraine, which itself is unlikely to succeed under German support by 1918. Odessa being under Romanian control is also fairly unlikely. The most likely border between Russia and Germany is probably around the OTL Soviet-Eastern Europe border, in my opinion.

Also give pro German Finland all of Karelia, Murmansk, and everything north of St. Petersburg. Let Russians keep rest of its empire especially in Asia to help Germany project more across Eurasia especially if British take out defeat in ww1 in Ottomans to get something out of war. Might have to throw them under bus(ottomans).

I doubt the Finns would be keen on integrating a potential 5th column into their country. As for the Russians and Asia, the Caucasus could survive as Ottoman clients maybe as compensation for the inevitable loses to Britain in a peace treaty. Anything else is a no go.

 

[Nivek]

said they only give Odessa to Romania if they gave back rest of Ukraine to Russia(minus Polish claims that goes to that puppet and Crimea which Germans directly control. Don’t want to give Russians too many concessions and rather keep borders more East and away from core. The Crimea would be easy to defend too.

No chance in hell giving back anything to Russia, they started the whole mess and Ukraine is an amazing vassal to get

 

[Admiral Spaun]

I really do think Germany going to at least get indirectly involved in Russian Civil. Send “volunteers”(plus private paramilitary/Friekorps and vets looking for work). Plus advisors and aid while possibly organizing its own army out of its puppets and refugees/exiles fleeing civil war especially anti bolshevik groups

I don't see any reason why German aid to the Whites would be any better than the Allies IOTL. A permanent intervention in Russia is too costly and wouldn't have much public support behind it. The Whites are still poorly led and far too internally divided compared to the Communists.

 

[Paradoxer]

I don't think an independent Crimea is a viable option without an independent Ukraine, which itself is unlikely to succeed under German support by 1918. Odessa being under Romanian control is also fairly unlikely. The most likely border between Russia and Germany is probably around the OTL Soviet-Eastern Europe border, in my opinion.

I doubt the Finns would be keen on integrating a potential 5th column into their country. As for the Russians and Asia, the Caucasus could survive as Ottoman clients maybe as compensation for the inevitable loses to Britain in a peace treaty. Anything else is a no go.

The issue with ottomans those I see British taking out everything on them(“at least we got and ended one of them” mentality”). I think they might go for it and push for full partition. The Brits get Arab lands so otl gains plus Syria and Lebanon(France gets nothing there and British likely blame them for lost in mainland).

Also would not put in past Bulgaria to take opportunity to back stab ottomans and take back Thrace. If Greece doesn’t join in 1917 or flips sides(pro German king comes back in coup and as “I told you so” on his support) so Bulgaria breaks deal with them. They lose big in Europe but Bulgaria and UK support their claims in Anatolia. The genocide used as excuse by Germans to ditch the Turks and by allies to create a massive Armenian out of both Russia and ottomans as reparations. Plus maybe Union with the Georgians. The Muslims groups likely get screwed in deals.

The British might take Congo too in exchange for giving back Germany its colonies so it can still build the cape to Cairo railroad

 

[Paradoxer]

I don't see any reason why German aid to the Whites would be any better than the Allies IOTL. A permanent intervention in Russia is too costly and wouldn't have much public support behind it. The Whites are still poorly led and far too internally divided compared to the Communists.

They literally right there unlike allies and East is much less of cluster mess of competing powers. Once Germans build railroads and infrastructure intertwining Berlin to Kiev, Warsaw, Riga, and its puppet borders(likely military bases) if war still going on by early 20s Germany involvement is huge. Also Soviets won’t directly attack Germans so the puppets are safe havens for whites and anti bolsheviks

That border is very un defendable

 

[Paradoxer]

No chance in hell giving back anything to Russia, they started the whole mess and Ukraine is an amazing vassal to get

I think they might in your turning Russia in a qusi puppet or dependent if they help install pro German regime or save them from defeat to bolsheviks

 

[Paradoxer]

I don't think an independent Crimea is a viable option without an independent Ukraine, which itself is unlikely to succeed under German support by 1918.

I was referring to Crimea being left under direct German control and maybe possibly encourage eastern Germans to move there. Basically use as Germany Black Sea navy and military base

 

[Admiral Spaun]

The issue with ottomans those I see British taking out everything on them(“at least we got and ended one of them” mentality”). I think they might go for it and push for full partition. The Brits get Arab lands so otl gains plus Syria and Lebanon(France gets nothing there and British likely blame them for lost in mainland).

Germany can't afford to sell out the Ottomans or their word becomes worthless on the international stage. Britain would probably get protectorates over the Hejaz, Palestine, and southern mesopotamia while the Ottomans would keep Syria and Mosul.

Also would not put in past Bulgaria to take opportunity to back stab ottomans and take back Thrace. If Greece doesn’t join in 1917 or flips sides(pro German king comes back in coup and as “I told you so” on his support) so Bulgaria breaks deal with them. They lose big in Europe but Bulgaria and UK support their claims in Anatolia. The genocide used as excuse by Germans to ditch the Turks and by allies to create a massive Armenian out of both Russia and ottomans as reparations. Plus maybe Union with the Georgians. The Muslims groups likely get screwed in deals.

Bulgaria wasn't in a position to backstab anybody by 1918. The rest of this isn't even remotely plausible or in keeping with the characteristics of German leadership.

 

[NolanFoster]

I don't necessarily see Ukrainian nationalism failing to take root without the Soviet Union. This is basically claiming that the situation in the early 20th century in Ukraine was analogous to the Low Germans, who essentially allowed themselves to cease to exist without a political pushback and a consolidation of a separate identity from (High) Germany over the 19th and 20th centuries. In contrast, the old analogous conception of Ukrainians being Little Russians was already crumbling, to the chagrin of Russian nationalists.

Ukrainian nationalism was already a strong movement among the intelligentsia and much of the middle classes. What it lacked was broad strength among the peasantry. There was an urban/rural divide, which was also a class divide and in part a Russian/Ukrainian divide.

I'd suggest you explore the contention and conflict over what Ukraine means and what shape it will take. This situation is very different from the one that gave us the modern separation between Ukraine and Russia. The main difference between any of these timelines and OTL is that these issues were solved by institutional and political force under the Soviet system, and the borders were handed down from above with a method to the madness within a system where it wouldn't be challenged. The Soviets were the ones who firmly entrenched Ukrainian identity by design, and that stuck even after Stalin retreated from supporting the most benevolent policies. In your timeline, political projects in Ukraine have to achieve that for themselves against opposition, possibly with German support. It's up to them to build the institutional support for a language and culture than many regarded as peasant dialects and modes of living. But the tide of history was already with them.

 

[Nivek]

I think they might in your turning Russia in a qusi puppet or dependent if they help install pro German regime or save them from defeat to bolsheviks

after 1916 that wasn't on the table anymore, the weaker the Russia, the better for them

 

[David T]

Yes... it is cliche... but there is a reason these things are cliche...

I tried to make it accurate/the most likely thing that would happen.

What do you think and what could I improve about it?

I'm not sure Belarus would extend that far east or whether there would even have been a Belarusian state. In OTL, the western borders of Soviet Russia in the Belarus area were actualy to the west of the USSR's borders in OTL under the Treaty of Riga. As I've noted elsewhere, "As for Belorussia, while it was occupied by German troops, the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk did not recognize its independence (unlike Ukraine). Indeed, Germany never recognized the BNR (Bielarúskaja Naródnaja Respublika).

"

Treaty of Brest-Litovsk - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Germans were just beginning to discover the idea of Belarus (so for that matter were the Bralrusians!) and they might in the end have decided to go beyond the Brest-Litovsk Treaty and establish a Belarusian state there at Russia's expense, but it is by no means certain. Even if they did, it might not extend as far east as on your map--it was only in 1924 that "Russia returned most of territories that made up the Vitebsk and Mogilev Governorates, as well as parts of Smolensk. " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byelorussian_Soviet_Socialist_Republic

 

[NolanFoster]

I don't think that in any scenario where France and Italy have collapsed militarily, Britain will be in much of a position to be dictating terms to anyone.

 

[Paradoxer]

I don't necessarily see Ukrainian nationalism failing to take root without the Soviet Union. This is basically claiming that the situation in the early 20th century in Ukraine was analogous to the Low Germans, who essentially allowed themselves to cease to exist without a political pushback and a consolidation of a separate identity from (High) Germany over the 19th and 20th centuries. In contrast, the old analogous conception of Ukrainians being Little Russians was already crumbling, to the chagrin of Russian nationalists.

Ukrainian nationalism was already a strong movement among the intelligentsia and much of the middle classes. What it lacked was broad strength among the peasantry. There was an urban/rural divide, which was also a class divide and in part a Russian/Ukrainian divide.

I'd suggest you explore the contention and conflict over what Ukraine means and what shape it will take. This situation is very different from the one that gave us the modern separation between Ukraine and Russia. The main difference between any of these timelines and OTL is that these issues were solved by institutional and political force under the Soviet system, and the borders were handed down from above with a method to the madness within a system where it wouldn't be challenged. The Soviets were the ones who firmly entrenched Ukrainian identity by design, and that stuck even after Stalin retreated from supporting the most benevolent policies. In your timeline, political projects in Ukraine have to achieve that for themselves against opposition, possibly with German support. It's up to them to build the institutional support for a language and culture than many regarded as peasant dialects and modes of living. But the tide of history was already with them.

The benefit of peasantry and illiteracy makes it easier to sway majority to identity then a literate and established people. Hell peasants were often almost as passive as church or aristocrats about change as long as they were fed and didn’t die in wars or famines. Honestly not hardest group to sway if your competent and treat them well somewhat.

Hell many peasants might get germanized themselves

 

[Admiral Spaun]

Once Germans build railroads and infrastructure intertwining Berlin to Kiev, Warsaw, Riga, and its puppet borders(likely military bases) if war still going on by early 20s Germany involvement is huge.

Where would the German government find the money to do all this and why would they waste it on pointless eastern colonialism when it could be used to rebuild Germany? Also, how would the German government be able to sell a large scale military intervention to the German people after 4 years of total war.

 

[Paradoxer]

Germany can't afford to sell out the Ottomans or their word becomes worthless on the international stage. Britain would probably get protectorates over the Hejaz, Palestine, and southern mesopotamia while the Ottomans would keep Syria and Mosul.

Bulgaria wasn't in a position to backstab anybody by 1918. The rest of this isn't even remotely plausible or in keeping with the characteristics of German leadership.

I don’t think Germany will have a say in matter. British might refuse to get back its colonies or let up on blockade otherwise while they are trying to consolidate their gains or get back lost colonial ones in peace talks with British(“peace with honor”). Germany basically tells ottomans “we love to help but can’t”. The British likely want to deprive the Germans of Baghdad railroad project too. Keep them more to Europe.

Where would the German government find the money to do all this and why would they waste it on pointless eastern colonialism when it could be used to rebuild Germany? Also, how would the German government be able to sell a large scale military intervention to the German people after 4 years of total war.

Exploitation of local raw resources and cheap manpower along with immigrants/refugees from east. Germany would build this infrastructure because it benefits the core. Food from the Ukraine breadbasket or raw resources from east ship by trade at low prices to Germany itself. Cheap labor factories and sweat shop labor would also be propped up. Export that stuff to puppets east so Germany workers can have better conditions and people cheaper goods.

With military they got to organize puppet client regimes militaries don’t they? They will use Poles, Baltic people, maybe Finland, and Ukraine to do dirty work while building them up to benefit core. Also military railroads are needed to put down possible rebellion or coups. If anyone gets any “funny ideas” in Riga or Kiev German army ready to storm in. Also the paramilitary friekorps are private mercenaries basically

 

[NolanFoster]

The benefit of peasantry and illiteracy makes it easier to sway majority to identity then a literate and established people. Hell peasants were often almost as passive as church or aristocrats about change as long as they were fed and didn’t die in wars or famines. Honestly not hardest group to sway if your competent and treat them well somewhat.

Hell many peasants might get germanized themselves

Germanized? Not likely. They weren't simply passive, but had their own priorities that weren't merely conducive to German or Soviet (or for that matter Ukrainian nationalist) ones.

 

[Paradoxer]

Germanized? Not likely. They weren't simply passive, but had their own priorities that weren't merely conducive to German or Soviet (or for that matter Ukrainian nationalist) ones.

What’s that town in Tatar lands full of Eastern Germans? What would happen to them and what’s their demographics at this point?