Earliest possible Allied victory?

[TDM]

My posts about grabbing a French port in 1943 weren't meant to suggest the Wallies first plan is just to take a nibble and hold on. The intent would be a full breakthough and drive forward. The port is just a necessity since they lack the LST, Mulberries, etc to support the first phases of the push forward with over the beach supply.

Still a huge risk that the port isn't captured intact and requires the Germans to be really distracted elsewhere, like risking collapse in Italy or big sectors of the Eastern front.

Yep and you've already mentioned the biggest issues. even if France is comparatively lightly garrisoned over all, the ports will be garrisoned and rigged for sabotage. Plus given the amount of stuff you need to move through it every day to support an invasion it's got to be a decent sized port. The bigger the port the harder it will be to take by surprise and the swifter the German response.

In terms of logistics the biggest issue for seaborne invasion is the landing point, weather an empty beach or a seized port. It is the narrow bottle neck you have to squeeze everything through. Any delay or stalling at that point really messes with every part of the operation in front of it (and behind it come to that as things get backed up, transports waiting to be unloaded aren't heading back for their next loads etc, etc).

from this fun little article that summarises the scale of D-Day logistics:

• In the twenty-seven days beginning 6 June, the Allies poured massive amounts of men and materiel into Normandy. As of 2 July, a million troops representing twenty-five divisions (thirteen American, eleven British, and one Canadian) had come ashore. They were supported by 566,648 tons of supplies and 171,532 vehicles.

That's approx. 21k tonnes a day


Here's a bit more on the background of the problem

I was going to chop bits out and past them but actually it's all pretty good so I'll just paste the leader:

"In the course of the endless calculations involved in the logistic planning for OVERLORD, an exasperated staff officer summed up his frustrations over the port problem in a parody of the invasion plan known as "Operation OVERBOARD." "The general principle," he wrote, "is that the number of divisions required to capture the number of ports required to maintain those divisions is always greater than the number of divisions those ports can maintain."

 

[tomo pauk]

The fact that the Luftwaffe wasn't nearly wiped out in 1943, the fact that the railroads would be nearly intact so the Nazis could easily reinforce it at will, the fact that the Allies didn't have the landing craft. About the only thing that the Germans had in their favor in 1944 as compared to 1943 is they had better fortifications which, considering how little they slowed down the Wallies, didn't mean much.

Luftwaffe 1-engined fighter force in Germany+Austria+France+Low Countries - the main bulwark against the WAllied onslaught - numbered ~650 pieces in the Spring of 1943, ~800 in the Summer, and ~950 in Autumn. In Spring of 1944, it went to 1000, ~950 in Summer, and ~1500 in Autumn.
graph
Landing crafts are available for the 1943 invasion of France, since there is no invasion of Sicily in 1943.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

...since there is no invasion of Sicily in 1943.

So all Italian divisions fighting for the Axis in mid-1943 remain on the Axis roster, the Italian navy remains at least a fleet-in-being problem for the Allies in the Mediterranean, and all Axis aircraft destroyed during Operation Husky at their airfields remain on the Axis roster?

 

[TDM]

Luftwaffe 1-engined fighter force in Germany+Austria+France+Low Countries - the main bulwark against the WAllied onslaught - numbered ~650 pieces in the Spring of 1943, ~800 in the Summer, and ~950 in Autumn. In Spring of 1944, it went to 1000, ~950 in Summer, and ~1500 in Autumn.
graph

http://www.allworldwars.com/image/003/DefeatGAF18.jpg

In 1943 there's also the Mediterranean Front Tactical force, where do you think they're fighting in 1943?

Landing crafts are available for the 1943 invasion of France, since there is no invasion of Sicily in 1943.

There's a rather large difference in scale between the Invasion of Sicily and France?

just on landing craft Husky (Sicily):

1. Confronting the Commanders was also the task of developing an organization, a plan, and the vast facilities needed to meet the requirements of embarking 130,000 troops and loading 30,000 vehicles and 20,000 tons of ammunition and supplies in the 250 odd craft envisaged in the joint plans. Since such an undertaking had never before been attempted, there was no past experience upon which to draw guidance.

It doesn't give the precise breakdown of the "250 odd craft" But I'm happy to count them all as landing craft as this was taken from Section IX on landing section in the report and other craft types are talked about in their own sections of the report

D-Day:

The invasion fleet, which was drawn from eight different navies, comprised 6,939 vessels: 1,213 warships, 4,126 landing craft of various types, 736 ancillary craft, and 864 merchant vessels

P.S what is really telling here is that in 1943 that's a perfectly reasonable definition of "vast facilities" and "such an undertaking never before attempted" for a seaborne invasion, But look how those definitions shift just a year later!

 

[tomo pauk]

So all Italian divisions fighting for the Axis in mid-1943 remain on the Axis roster, the Italian navy remains at least a fleet-in-being problem for the Allies in the Mediterranean, and all Axis aircraft destroyed during Operation Husky at their airfields remain on the Axis roster?

Yes, the mighty Italian divisions and even mightier Italian feet are still drain on the Axis resources, while unable to do much in France.
The part of Axis aircraft from Med, once started to be deployed in France and thereabout, are right where I want them to be - within the range of Allied fighters and fighter-bombers. No hiding behind the Rhine and Ardennes so the Spitfires, Typhoons and P-47s cannot reach them.

http://www.allworldwars.com/image/003/DefeatGAF18.jpg

In 1943 there's also the Mediterranean Front Tactical force, where do you think they're fighting in 1943?

There's a rather large difference in scale between the Invasion of Sicily and France?

Mediterranean Front Tactical force is fighting in Mediterranean in 1943.
Invasion of France in 1943 != invasion of France in 1944.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

The biggest issue OTL for any cross channel invasion is the lack of landing craft

The Higgins boats and larger LSTs etc where still being spammed out in the UK and USA

For Op Torch (Nov 42) for example there was only 3 LSTs operational on the entire planet at the time

It would take at least a 6 month advancing of landing craft production (coupled with a much earlier winning of the Battle of the Atlantic) IMO to get enough assault shipping to conduct a cross channel invasion.

Plus enough specialist equipment and units stood up and trained to conduct it.

 

[TDM]

Yes, the mighty Italian divisions and even mightier Italian feet are still drain on the Axis resources, while unable to do much in France.
The part of Axis aircraft from Med, once started to be deployed in France and thereabout, are right where I want them to be - within the range of Allied fighters and fighter-bombers. No hiding behind the Rhine and Ardennes so the Spitfires, Typhoons and P-47s cannot reach them.

The point is they will be there, you previously were not counting them. I mean you are right if they are fighting they're at risk of getting shot down, but that was true in Italy as well.

Mediterranean Front Tactical force is fighting in Mediterranean in 1943.
Invasion of France in 1943 != invasion of France in 1944.

And we come back to the same point again, I know the Invasion of France 43 =/= invasion of France '44, but it's also =/= invasion of Italy '43 either!


So OK no invasion of Italy but instead one in France, do you think those planes in the Med force in 43' will stay in the Med or will they go to France, you know were the fighting is?


But what I really want to know in regards to your point about landing craft is are you planning on invading France in 1943 with a Operation Husky sized force, or are you going to cram a D-Day sized force into Operation Husky sized available resources?

 

[Dolnikan]

Yes, the mighty Italian divisions and even mightier Italian feet are still drain on the Axis resources, while unable to do much in France.
The part of Axis aircraft from Med, once started to be deployed in France and thereabout, are right where I want them to be - within the range of Allied fighters and fighter-bombers. No hiding behind the Rhine and Ardennes so the Spitfires, Typhoons and P-47s cannot reach them.



Mediterranean Front Tactical force is fighting in Mediterranean in 1943.
Invasion of France in 1943 != invasion of France in 1944.

It indeed isn't. An invasion in 1943 is more difficult than in 1944. There is less technology and less material available while the Germans have more ability to fight back. That isn't a recipe for a great success. Of course, it could still succeed, but there is quite some chance of failure as well. And that would really stretch out the war.

 

[marathag]

Best not to compare to Overlord in 1944 into 1943, but Op. Dragoon

 

[TDM]

Best not to compare to Overlord in 1944 into 1943, but Op. Dragoon

They certainly are closer in terms of scale. (although if this site is anything to go by Dragoon still involves double the landing craft of Husky)

Problem with it is Operation Dragoon is done in the context of D-Day happening 2 months earlier and all that means for German force deployment in France and their response when they land, i.e. as well as D-Day not an alternative to D-Day.

Dragoon is also largely run out of and/or supported from Corsica and Italy IIRC, so that means you have to have done Italy first (well assuming you going to the south of France!)


Ultimately I don't think it's going to end well if you hit France with an invasion the size of Dragoon by itself though.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

Yes, the mighty Italian divisions and even mightier Italian feet are still drain on the Axis resources, while unable to do much in France...

The Italians had an occupation zone in France. (Which incidentally the Germans had to cover with troops of their own, once the Mussolini's government fell.) Leave Italy in the war, and the Italians continue to garrison part of France, and more German troops are available for use elsewhere.

(And I know it's common to mock the WW2 Italians as useless at everything, but they had some highly trained naval saboteurs who (amongst other attacks) took out of commission two British battleships in Alexandria harbour in 1941. (One battleship for six months, the other for nine.) Italian naval saboteurs were a pain in the backside for the Allies in the Mediterranean, requiring endless vigilance against them even when they weren't sending ships for repair time in a dockyard or outright sinking them.)

 

[marathag]

(And I know it's common to mock the WW2 Italians as useless at everything, but they had some highly trained naval saboteurs who (amongst other attacks)

The smaller the Italian formation was, the objectively better it would be, on average

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

It's feasible for the Western Allies to defeat Germany by the end of 1944. C. J. Dick's From Victory to Stalemate lists the errors at the Operation level of the military art that let the German army recover from the debacle of Falaise. It would have been possible to trap more of the staff and experienced troops that served as cadres for the new/rebuilt divisions that blocked the Allies advance in September. The logistics constraints would have been eased by an earlier opening of Antwerp. Which required Monty to prioritise this rather than Market Garden. This would also trap the German XVth Army and reduce German strength even further. Bringing reinforcements from the Eastern Front would be feasible but just weaken that even further.

However, the Allied generals simply didn't rise to the occasion and the armies weren't strong enough. So let's set out a series of steps to get a stronger Overlord and a weaker Germany.

1) Clear North Africa in 1942.
2) Earlier victory in the Battle of the Atlantic.
3) invasion of Sicily as soon as weather permits in 1943.
4) rather than invade Italy immediately occupy Sardinia and Corsica. Forcing the Axis to guard against threats to southern France and the entire Italian coast. Let any Italian campaign be as minimal as possible
5) no "battle of Berlin" but a bombing Offensive focused on the Ruhr and Germany's railways and waterways. And the destruction of the German fighter force of course
6) launch Overlord and Dragoon simultaneously as early as possible in 1944. May if need be, April if possible

All this is easier said than done of course. The key element is overcoming the U-boat threat. Which means shipping losses are lower, shipyards can build more LSTs etc. and an earlier build up of US forces in Britain is possible.

Probably requires the Allies to roll a few more 5s and 6s but not be as implausible as Imperial Japan's all 6s die rolls until Midway!

 

[Post]

The key element is overcoming the U-boat threat.

Earlier LRMP will do a lot here. Diverting maybe a dozen squadrons of long range bombers to Coastal Command in 1940 will help a lot. They're more useful patrolling the shiplanes.

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

Earlier LRMP will do a lot here. Diverting maybe a dozen squadrons of long range bombers to Coastal Command in 1940 will help a lot. They're more useful patrolling the shiplanes.

Yep, that was my thoughts on achieving the goal.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

...
3) invasion of Sicily as soon as weather permits in 1943.
4) rather than invade Italy immediately occupy Sardinia and Corsica. Forcing the Axis to guard against threats to southern France and the entire Italian coast. Let any Italian campaign be as minimal as possible...

A possible complication here is if Sicily triggers the fall of Mussolini and a split in the Italian leadership with at least the King and Badoglio begging the Allies to land on the mainland and establish a presence before the Germans can seize control...

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

A possible complication here is if Sicily triggers the fall of Mussolini and a split in the Italian leadership with at least the King and Badoglio begging the Allies to land on the mainland and establish a presence before the Germans can seize control...

Yes, that's a problem as much as an opportunity for the Allies.

Might be simpler to leave the Italians notionally in the war on Germany's side

 

[Look More Closely Later]

Yes, that's a problem as much as an opportunity for the Allies.

Might be simpler to leave the Italians notionally in the war on Germany's side

It helps Stalin immediately, of course, if some or all the Italians on the Eastern Front stop fighting him... I suspect he might have a view on that!

Edit:
Okay: maybe not (helping Stalin) as much as I thought. It looks as if a lot of the Italians may have been pulled from the Eastern Front after Stalingrad.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

The Italians were the lest prepared of the Axis forces

Germany had been gearing up for much of the 30s with combat experience from 1939, Japan was fighting in China during the 30s and had fought Khalkhin Gol - probably the largest armoured battle of its day in 1939.

Italy had fought colonial battles in Africa for sure and had fought in Albania which was a particularly one sided affair but nothing particularly 'testing'

They declared war on the Allies at what they thought was the 11th hour with no greater war aim than a seat at the victors table - so from their POV they did not need a longer term strategy than that.

I've mentioned elsewhere that it takes about 3 years or so to go from sleepy peace time army to fully educated armed and equipped continental style army

In 1940 her economy was deemed to be about 1/6th that of Britain or France and her army was in the middle of a very muddled reorganisation

 

[Bob in Pittsburgh]

The biggest issue OTL for any cross channel invasion is the lack of landing craft

The Higgins boats and larger LSTs etc where still being spammed out in the UK and USA

This was a question of production priorities. In 1942 LSTs were the number 1 production goal. When it became apparent that there would be no invasion in 1942 and probably not in 1943 LST production was dropped to 11. The new number 1 were destroyer escorts and that together with the allocation of B-24 planes to anti submarine duty won the war, or at least avoided a defeat. Now LST production could have been higher than 11th and this would have allowed a cross channel invasion in 1943, IT would in my opinion have been a risky move but it could have worked.