Over. Dassault. dead. body. ROTFL. You would have better luck with a surviving Breguet carving itself a niche between Aérospatiale (public company) and Dassault (private).
Naval aircraft, trainers, international cooperations: even OTL, they got some successes before Dassautl ate them in 1968-71.
It would need a pod in the mid-50's with Louis Breguet (died 1955) getting a strong heir at the head of the company. OTL Breguet picked the wrong horses - NATO and International partnerships (Jaguar). They had nonelethess a string of successes (Alizé, Atlantic, Jaguar, and the Alphajet was their last baby, Breguet 1260).
Maybe Henry Potez could step in - he bought the Fouga Magister's company instead, circa 1958. Potez perfectly knew Dassault: they were pals since WWI, born the same year 1892. Hell of an idea, I should start a separate thread...
I said it more in the sense that equivalent avionics to the F1EQ-5/6 exports would be nice, but yes the success of the Jaguar mostly relies on Dassault not buying Breguet. Your POD seems interesting...
Anyway, the first problems happened when several prototypes were lost due to the Adour's problems. Given that some Speys had the same problems at first I'm not sure that RR could plausibly do better. This also delayed the aircraft which had somewhat worse timing for exports (I will get to that). With all that said for all the Adour's flaws the Jaguar would have been much more successful without Dassault's interference (though Dassault could probably outbid the Jag anyway). Once Dassault took over, Anglo-French cooperation died and meant that efforts to upgrade the Jaguar were not coordinated. Dassault also prevented Bac from selling the Jag abroad for a while, again ruining the timing as more advanced aircrafts entered the picture.
Let's look at the export potential the Jag had:
- Brazil and Argentina were highly interested in the Jaguar M variant. The latter actually wasn't as bad as it's commonly viewed. Had Adour 102s been fitted throttle response would have been much better. Moreover the M05 prototype with those changes and the big wing to improve handling and fuel capacity (the MN found it had too little range) was never finished in that version. Of course a new wing is an expensive and risky option, and the Jaguar would have been too expensive for the number of aircrafts the Aéronavale wanted. That said the Super Etendard entered service far later than the Jag M would have, probably suffered from inflation and proved more expensive than originally claimed. The M probably had a chance if Dassault wasn't involved and France cancelled something else.
- Japan wanted to license produce the Jag, but high royalties meant they preferred to design the F-1 with the Jag's lead designer's help. Japanese projects always tended to be rather expensive however and IIRC Japan got far less F-1s than they wanted. Had SEPECAT been more compromizing (although maybe this was post-merger already?), Japan might have got a good amount of Jags instead.
- Turkey also approached the British in 1973 for a license production agreement of up to 200, and later on in 75 they wanted to change that to British-produced planes, somthing like 24. That said given Turkish political developments this was perhaps always doomed to fail...
-Nigeria wanted to buy a second batch, but corruption led to budget issues which meant this was killed. Again this is more dependent on Nigerian politics than on SEPECAT...
-Kuwait wanted 50 (along with 16 Mirage 5s) but got Mirage F1s. Dassault's interference.
-Pakistan wanted some, got Mirage Vs instead. Dassault's interference (or maybe British govt interfence due to the arms embargo on Pakistan?)
-Belgium fought about buying up to 106 aircrafts, 90 being Mirage Vs and the remainder Jaguars. In the end they only got Vs. This was a highly political buy (if not outright corruption, this is Belgium we're talking about). Maybe there could have been more Jags.
The other countries that were approached were Switzerland, the Netherlands, Germany and Australia. However I'm afraid that none were really looking for it, although had there been a strong push by the Anglo-French towards enhanced versions it might have snatched orders before the MRCA became too strong.
There was a rather impressive variant developped by BAC in 1976, the P.97 by BAC:
It would have featured a big wing with extra stores, composite construction, fly-by-wire controls and either the significantly upgraded RB.409s or Adour 63 Dash. Again, cooperation could have got us a very impressive aircraft. The amount of Adour projects is staggering.