Wank the SEPECAT Jaguar

These are the opposites of the OP.

What if the Dassault takeover of Breguet was in 1961 instead of 1971. Would the AdA have bought a ground attack version of the Mirage F1 instead?

Or what if Dassault's submission to the ECAT specification was selected?
 
It's more because Britain itself was involved in solving the Cyprus crisis and I don't really see a deal with Turkey being made before that event and after that...it's quite bad PR
If you ask the Greek Cypriots, Britain was favouring Turkey anyway, in the more extreme versions of the story HMS Hermes was helping direct Turkish fighters... so not much goodwill lost over that.

I'd actually see any Jaguar sale as directly related to Cyprus though... or rather the US arms embargo over Cyprus. One option would be the US encouraging Britain to sell aircraft to Turkey as a way of circumventing the more dire effects of the embargo, the administration was hardly happy with it. The alternative is that Carter fails to have it lifted, the vote was extremely close. Come 1981 Turkey buys the RB.199 Jaguar and some Tornadoes in place of the F-16 they ordered in OTL...
 
These are the opposites of the OP.

What if the Dassault takeover of Breguet was in 1961 instead of 1971. Would the AdA have bought a ground attack version of the Mirage F1 instead?

Or what if Dassault's submission to the ECAT specification was selected?
To quote myself from elsewhere say that Dassault manages to buy out Breguet a dozen years early at the time of Louis Breguet's death in 1955. Along come the peliminary designs for what became Br.1120, at a time the Mirage III as we know it is not quite around yet. Dassault can recognise a good idea when he sees it and along with the OTL delta winged variants, also test flies a variant that mates the Mirage III fuselage with the 1120s wing. In testing it proves just as fast as the delta but superior in other aspects, besides being suitable both for carrier and land based versions. And thus Mirage F enters service in 1960 with French air force and navy and Israel originally. More versions follow as better engines and electronics come available potentially all the way into the 1980s.

But sorry no Jaguar...
 
View attachment 601794
Actually not just the RB.199 but also a lift engine and a 24" radar dish for the RN version. Enough payload for two Harpoons and 2 Sidewinders it seems.

Excellent.
For a no-nonsense ground-based Jaguar, we'd probably loose the lift engine and 'cascades'. Raw speed will not be going anywhere, but climb, range, maneuverability and payload capability might be considerably improved because the powerplant weight is much lower.
 
In our timeline the RAF seem to have recognised that the joint trainer-attack aircraft idea wasn't really working and shifted their order to mostly the ground attack variant, running on the Hunters and Gnats in the training role until a new trainer could be acquired. It might not be quite what tomo pauk was asking for but an earlier divorcing of the two two roles might have helped – allow Jaguar to specialise for attack whilst bringing forward the development of the Hawk trainer.


The Mk 104 was a pretty substantial improvement for the flight profiles the Jaguar took.
Apparently there was a proposal from Rolls-Royce in the late 1980s or early 90s for a RB.543 development which was forecasted to develop 7,500 lbf dry and 12,000 with reheat for another project. That's probably too late in its lifespan for the Jaguar, but if something like that could be done earlier whilst not increasing weight massively or requiring too many changes for installation.


If I'm reading the above comments right, we need to remove Breguet from Marcel's hands in order for Jaguar to stand better chances.
Well this thread had Marcel Bloch dying during his incarceration at Buchenwald concentration camp. Slightly less drastic is his not being able to re-establish his company post-war. The French aviation minister was a communist who felt that all aeronautic research and development had to be handled at the government société nationale des constructions rather than left to private companies, the aircraft they produced were rubbish though so it left an opportunity for Dassault. It's all a bit complex and been some time since I read about it but Bloch had to do some fancy footwork to restart things. A third alternative is that the US doesn't help fund the Mirage, IIRC they did so – and for a number of other European aircraft – through their MDAA program.
 
Apparently there was a proposal from Rolls-Royce in the late 1980s or early 90s for a RB.543 development which was forecasted to develop 7,500 lbf dry and 12,000 with reheat for another project. That's probably too late in its lifespan for the Jaguar, but if something like that could be done earlier whilst not increasing weight massively or requiring too many changes for installation.

RR might chip-in with Honeywell on the F125 project from 1980s? That engine line was actually suggested for the Indian Jaguar update.
 
Let's give some love to the Jag. Like an update to it's wing, powerplant, electronics etc. so it still matters in 1980s/90s for both new and old customers. Cancel/axe other aircraft where & when needed so there is enough of funds for countries to buy the 'better Jag'.
Maybe the Canadians could sell most if not all of their CF5 fleet in the 1970's and buy a few squadrons of upgraded Jaguars that were deemed as adequate for the Canadian NATO role in Europe (and maybe some simplified 2 seat trainers as well.) Subsequently the Canadians buy a fleet of dedicated interceptors for their NORAD mission in the 1980's (maybe in this alternate time line they are able to buy the Iranian F14's) and in the 1990's their Jaguars receive a further upgrade to keep them relevant and subsequently Canada buys surplus Jaguars from other nations and keeps a few squadrons operational until the present day :) that fly most of the overseas missions that their CF18's flew in our timeline.
 

Riain

Banned
Also the British were not under Dassault influence, they could have (and tried) to sell ad improve the aircraft, but the 70's were such hell for British economy...

I agree that without scuppering deals from the French angle the Jaguar might have done considerably better, but the British were totally shit in this period so that has to change.

Assuming the Sandystorm still happens (it seems to have a version in a lot of countries at about the same time) there would have to be multiple PoDs.

The first is dropping this NBMR bullshit, it locked Britain into 2 (and a half?) expensive programmes (AV681 VTOL Hercules equivalent and the P1154RAF/RN) in the vain hope that they would work and lead to exports, a nice bit of British chauvinism could do the trick to make this happen. This would likely lead to existing aircraft filling the void for these planned purchases without costly failed development programmes; the Argosy getting a better wing, the Belfast getting more orders, perhaps the 2 Hunter replacements being merged with the advanced trainer and being met by P1127 as the cheap VTOL portion and the Jaguar the supersonic portion while allowing the TSR2 to be Britain's flagship aircraft development project with cascading benefits for the rest of the industry.

The second would be the Conservatives winning the 1964 general election, apparently there were only like 8,000 votes across ~20 marginal constituencies. They would be under less pressure to devalue the pound, which is what drove the incoming Labour Government to conduct the defence review, 66 white paper, cancel the HS681, P1154, CVA01 and TSR2 in favour of either nothing or US aircraft. They had to devalue anyway which led them to cancel the F111K and accelerate the withdrawal from EoS, which is the worst of both possible worlds. This would get the TSR2 and CVA01&02 over the line before they get voted out in 1967, and even if Labour devalue the pound it won't be as drastic as OTL with an order book full of US aircraft which have just ballooned in price.

In a world where these both happen Britain is still a confident although still diminished world power, seen as a reliable partner for export nations looking to buy a cheap but sophisticated attack aircraft rather than a nation full of halfwits who cannot get anything over the line. This will enhance the Jaguar's export prospects and likely increase the number with the RAF as well.
 
To be totally honest the engines are the biggest sticking point for an upgrade. The length diameter and weight need to be right in order to do a decent upgrade as high altitude.

The airframe and stores is easily okay as is.

The avionics need improvement and i would look at either fitting a Sea Harrier FRS 2 nose in late 80,s with AMRAAM capability or fit either an APG-65 or APG-66 radars and avionics suite. The APG-65 to me is better due to easy use of a plethora of USN weapons. Possible avionics improvements can change the role incredibly.

Now the Wing is small and optimised for low level strike, number of pylons could be improved. Looking at the upgrade program of the AV-8B Plus Harrier i would look at a larger wing with extra pylons to make the Jaguar a multi-role fighter. As for customer i would look at India.

Possible POD. India begins to be frozen out of Soviet weapons programs delaying the upgrades to the Indian Air Force that it needs. France offers the Mirage 2000 but the cost is way to high.

Bae sends a sales team trying to sell the latest upgrade of wing and avionics to the Sea Harrier and while those negotiations continue an Engineer casually mentions the Jaguar could have a similar upgrade. Cost benefits of making much of the work in India is obvious and the IAF works with IAI and BAE on a new composite wing with an extra stores station and wired with the latest avionics. Of the 173 Jaguars the Indian Air Force was operating it was decided to modify 120 aircraft completely and the remainder with improved wing but not latest avionics package. The option to replace the Adour with a better engine was shelved.

From 1990 to 2000 the Jaguar improvement program was run with the 2 seater aircraft being split into two tranches. Tranche one was Laser guided bomb specialist with Pave Tack pods on the centreline and the second tranche was optimised for SEAD duties with the ALARM missile. Each improved Jaguar could carry 4 ALARM and two Python IV missiles.
The general configuration was equipped with a Blue Vixen radar and an Elta RWR. The standard interception configuration was 6 Python 4 missiles although the avionics could handle AMRAAM class missiles the acquiring of these was difficult.
Each Jaguar was able to carry and launch the Delilah cruise missile with a 250 km range on a strike mission. Rumours of a Delilah modified to carry a Nuclear warhead continue and have been denied.

First Combat use of the Jaguar force was a short conflict in mid 2000's with Pakistan due to terrorist incidents and involved Jaguars flying strike missions against camps and shooting ALARM missiles that destroyed two Hawk Missile sites and cratering the runways of the main PAF interceptor unit with 12 Delilah fitted with penetrator warheads.
4 F-16 and 3 Mirage 111O tried to engage the Jaguars but succumbed to Python IV missile launches one of which was an over the shoulder launch.

Bae offered the RAF the same upgrade but was knocked back until delays in the Eurofighter required the fleet be modernised. in a stroke of good fortune the wings to improve the RAF Jaguars got built in India and arrived on time on budget.
 

RyoSaeba69

Banned
To be totally honest the engines are the biggest sticking point for an upgrade. The length diameter and weight need to be right in order to do a decent upgrade as high altitude.
Definitively yes. At first glance, the Adour made the engine bays pretty small, notably in diameter, so fitting larger engine may be a tedious job.
Plus their power was miserable. 37.5 KN * 2 is merely 7400 kg of thrust. The Atar 9K50 all by itself nearly matched that: 7200 kgp. Together with the Jaguar heavier structure and wrong aerodynamics, it is no surprise a Mirage F1CT, same mission, leave it behind in the dust.

Luckily for the Jaguar, there is a trick to get around this... make it single engine !
It is quite simple maths...
Diameter: 22.3 inches (0.57 m)

So basically, two of them should be 45 inch / 1.14 m in diameter. Plus some "rump" structure between them: the Jaguar "rear end" - below the tail - should be 1.2 m in width or even more.

Now, the good news: most of modern turbofans are 0.80 m to 1.1 m diameter. The TF30 was one of the largest of the lot - yet even at 1.24 m in diameter, it is "only" 10 cm more. All others, Spey included, are less than 1.14 m.

So on paper at least, it must be quite doable to make the Jaguar single engine while vastly improving engine power.
 
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RyoSaeba69

Banned
The French aviation minister was a communist who felt that all aeronautic research and development had to be handled at the government société nationale des constructions rather than left to private companies, the aircraft they produced were rubbish though so it left an opportunity for Dassault. It's all a bit complex
Like hell it was more complex !

Somewhat astoninshingly, in Buchenwald Dassault life was saved by... communists resistants. And he remained grateful to them until the very end of his life - in 1986.

Leading to an extremely weird, ackward paradox.

Marcel Dassault was seen, by the left, as a "merchand of death" sselling deadly Mirages to all kind of crazy sobs like Gaddhaffi, Mobutu, and many others.

On paper at least.

Because the reality was far more nuanced. Dassault, the Gaullist, was giving money to the french communist party as a reward for saving his life in Buchenwald.
And this happened over the 1946-1986 period... also known for the Cold War. Where France sided with NATO and the United States, and Dassault Mirage - particularly with IDF/AF - shot down shitload of Soviet MiGs.
And in the 80's it becomes even weirder when Miterrand brought the Eurocommunists into his government. The very french PC Dassault had passed money, because Buchenwald.

Weird, weird situation, really !

Another paradox with that man: before his Buchenwald ordeal, in the 30's, he and his friend Henry Potez were radical-socialists (Radsocs, as we call them). this mean that, as far as politics went... they were leaning toward Le Front Populaire. Even if they were capitalists, rich men, merchands of weapons, those kind of things. Le Front Populaire really had a surprise there, in the sense a lot of French weapons manufacturers were seen as right wingers and La Cagoule friendly. Potez and Bloch (not Dassault yet) were very different. Well Dassault was jewish and obviously vichy tried to kill him, and very nearly managed so, the bastards.
 

Riain

Banned
A lot of the focus seems to be on making the strike variant cooler and sell more, but what about the trainer variant?

In a world where the P1154, AW681, TSR2, F111K, AFVG, UKVG debacles don't happen the RAF won't necessarily drive the Jaguar into a sophisticated ground attack aircraft to replace the almost-new Phantom as a replacement for the Hunter. The Phantom might well avoid it's RAF ground-attack phase in favour of the P1127 or P1150 and the MoU for 110 trainer and 90 attack aircraft of 1968 might remain. If so the British might buy more Jaguars as strike aircraft rather than retain their 200 and alter the trainer/strike mix.

France might do something similar, their mix was 75, 75, 40M, 10MT in 1968, mmaye they could retain their 75 trainers and buy more attack and Naval variants.
 
A lot of the focus seems to be on making the strike variant cooler and sell more, but what about the trainer variant?

In a world where the P1154, AW681, TSR2, F111K, AFVG, UKVG debacles don't happen the RAF won't necessarily drive the Jaguar into a sophisticated ground attack aircraft to replace the almost-new Phantom as a replacement for the Hunter. The Phantom might well avoid it's RAF ground-attack phase in favour of the P1127 or P1150 and the MoU for 110 trainer and 90 attack aircraft of 1968 might remain. If so the British might buy more Jaguars as strike aircraft rather than retain their 200 and alter the trainer/strike mix.

France might do something similar, their mix was 75, 75, 40M, 10MT in 1968, mmaye they could retain their 75 trainers and buy more attack and Naval variants.
Other western and or non aligned customers had the T38 and F5 family of aircraft to choose from if they wanted a simple supersonic trainer and or lightweight fighter ground attack aircraft. The eastern block also had the L39 to offer (which admittedly was subsonic.) While I can see the UK and France potentially buying more trainers it may be hard to compete against the T38, F5 and perhaps the L39 for international orders of advanced trainers and or light weight fighter ground attack air craft.

Perhaps a modest avionics upgrade (similar to what the F5E and F5F received) might have helped the Jaguar gain more traction with international sales ? (I believe some of the Indian Jaguars eventually got radar ?)
 
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Riain

Banned
I was thinking that the increases in attack variants in France and Britain still happens while still retaining the 85 and 110 trainers respectively. These trainers wouldn't likely be exported in bigger numbers but keeping the trainers while also increasing orders of attack versions will boost numbers, while allowing Britain and France to establish the "Lead-In Fighter' concept that's common these days.
 
Other western and or non aligned customers had the T38 and F5 family of aircraft to choose from if they wanted a simple supersonic trainer and or lightweight fighter ground attack aircraft. The eastern block also had the L39 to offer (which admittedly was subsonic.) While I can see the UK and France potentially buying more trainers it may be hard to compete against the T38, F5 and perhaps the L39 for international orders of advanced trainers and or light weight fighter ground attack air craft.

Perhaps a modest avionics upgrade (similar to what the F5E and F5F received) might have helped the Jaguar gain more traction with international sales ? (I believe some of the Indian Jaguars eventually got radar ?)
The problem is the Yanks and the Soviets are practically giving their aircraft away. Britain and France can't do that with the Jaguar, and even if they could thanks to Dassault they wouldn't.
 
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I was thinking that the increases in attack variants in France and Britain still happens while still retaining the 85 and 110 trainers respectively. These trainers wouldn't likely be exported in bigger numbers but keeping the trainers while also increasing orders of attack versions will boost numbers, while allowing Britain and France to establish the "Lead-In Fighter' concept that's common these days.
Got it. That makes sense. Thanks
 
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