What would be the ramifications of a world with a CP U.S. and a CP victory? Any POD is acceptable. I've always wondered if a defeated Entente would start a second World War.
Ramifications of a world with a CP U.S. + CP victory?
- Thread starter Bullmoose713
- Start date
Depend but the proper answer would be No unless Entente is all or nothing with revenge, even if USA broke down with CP or going again Isolationist, not USA or market price supplies for USA are beyond entente economical capacities, even without a lend and lease pararell, just paying for food could cost a fortune if USA demand both side to buy them and keep their trade quiet, and not only that, even if Germany not annex anythign for france, Germany now have Belgium as a satellite meaning france could get invaded easily.
Even if both UK, France and Russia goes red or black, and decide that they've to defeat germany now or never...is still a hard war. one they could loss it if not fast enough.
That's why many agree, including Churchill, that a CP victory would have resulted in no WW2.
Yeah and as i mentioned, unless the Neo Entete goes in a double or nothing against germany(Kaiserreich kinda make sense if Russia goes Red too, they're playing the future of the revolution, if they fail to beat germany there not revolution and we are all hanged together anyway), if anything France might learn revanche was for nothing.
thaa Natsoc germany with actual competent leadership instead of a failed art student on top of having a US alliance? Well, if you want a fascist-run world as a result...
The Central Powers weren't fascist, and I believe German was pretty democratic. Hitler probably wouldn't amount to anything in politics.
That is very true, but I don't think a military dictatorship after a victory would have been sustainable and legitimate even if Hindenburg and Ludendorff wanted to continue it. I believe the Kaiser promised an abolition to the 3 rank system in the Prussian Landtag(regarding the importance a return to democracy would have), though the military would be quite venerated.
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A CP victory in this scenario would result in in a world with two superpowers similar to OTL WWII, though here it would be the USA and Germany. However, I do not believe we will get a Cold War, but it would not necessarily be more peaceful.
There won't be a WWII, at least not for a while. The British Empire just lost a massive amount of territory and that is going to leave a scar on the British psyche. Britain has no capability of fighting either the USA or Germany because it has no allies on either North America or Europe to deal any sort of revenge. The British will likely accommodate the new world order and try to build a third non-American/German block based on its remaining empire + Japan. France will accept German hegemony after losing twice and will likely try to be its #1 partner in the quasi-EU to have influence. Russia will have lost its western territories, depriving it on the resources of Ukraine. The Germans won't allow it to reclaim territory. The USSR may not be allowed to exist, with the Americans and Germans propping up the Whites in the Russian Civil War. This means no Stalin, no industrialization, and no means to fight a WWII.
A WWII could come about after a Cold War when both powers are done digesting their new territories. The reason could be about economic dominance, being a Cold War more similar to the *current* Cold War between the USA and China as opposed to the ideological Cold War of the USA and USSR. Germany and the USA will be rivals in the Pacific and in China, which could cause a clash. The Germans may try to test the Monroe Doctrine while the USA could support anti-colonial elements in Africa.
We avoid the Holocaust and the gulags, but continued colonialism could lead to its own atrocities as Germany tries to hang onto its resource base for the Cold War. The USA has less interest in civil rights because its enemy isn't leftist. And given that the USA and Germany will not have any self-limiting ideologies like Nazism or communism holding them back, if WWII does come, the destruction could be a lot worse than what we got OTL. Would be an interesting world though!
- USA gets all of Britain and France's Western Hemisphere territories (British/French West Indies, British/French Guiana, French Polynesia, and the biggie: Canada. Maaaybe Quebec gets independence, depending on circumstances in the war, but the vast majority of Canadian territory will be made American). The USA also gets acknowledgement of the Monroe Doctrine written into the peace treaty. In the Eastern Hemisphere, the USA may grab some islands off Russia and Japan to round out its Pacific possessions but this will be an afterthought, depending on Japan's actions in the war now that the Pacific would be a front.
- Germany gets Mitteleuropa with a bunch of puppet states in Eastern Europe that it can economically integrate with. Austria-Hungary survives and is subservient to Germany to keep itself alive. Germany likely sets up a proto-EU to handle its new power. Like the EU we have now, the UK won't be part of it. Germany also gets Mittelafrika, dominating Central Africa and being able to extract the resources to itself. And thanks to its American ally, Germany gets to keep its vast Pacific possessions that it lost in 1914.
There won't be a WWII, at least not for a while. The British Empire just lost a massive amount of territory and that is going to leave a scar on the British psyche. Britain has no capability of fighting either the USA or Germany because it has no allies on either North America or Europe to deal any sort of revenge. The British will likely accommodate the new world order and try to build a third non-American/German block based on its remaining empire + Japan. France will accept German hegemony after losing twice and will likely try to be its #1 partner in the quasi-EU to have influence. Russia will have lost its western territories, depriving it on the resources of Ukraine. The Germans won't allow it to reclaim territory. The USSR may not be allowed to exist, with the Americans and Germans propping up the Whites in the Russian Civil War. This means no Stalin, no industrialization, and no means to fight a WWII.
A WWII could come about after a Cold War when both powers are done digesting their new territories. The reason could be about economic dominance, being a Cold War more similar to the *current* Cold War between the USA and China as opposed to the ideological Cold War of the USA and USSR. Germany and the USA will be rivals in the Pacific and in China, which could cause a clash. The Germans may try to test the Monroe Doctrine while the USA could support anti-colonial elements in Africa.
We avoid the Holocaust and the gulags, but continued colonialism could lead to its own atrocities as Germany tries to hang onto its resource base for the Cold War. The USA has less interest in civil rights because its enemy isn't leftist. And given that the USA and Germany will not have any self-limiting ideologies like Nazism or communism holding them back, if WWII does come, the destruction could be a lot worse than what we got OTL. Would be an interesting world though!
There's a potential for Germany to go fascist in the 20s or 30s even with a CP win given the intellectual currents floating around.
But only very ... VERY "basically".
Actually only as far as the civil society aka goverment - including political opposition - allowed them.
Tbh they rather 'begged' the military to run civil society as well as they - the governing bodies - felt rather unable to organized the state for war by themself.
Even the SPD looked to the military to taske over from the in their eyes incapable civil servants (great sorce for : Gerald Feldman).
Well, the other "basically" might refer to the prio to the war by the legislative powers accepted legislation in case of state of war.
IIRC from Auguist 1914 onwards germany was a state at war. 😉
What shall this notion be worth for ? ... depicting domestic politics ? ... social developments ?
So ... no mater what germany and the germans go fascist and Nazi ...
Thank You
Thomas1195
Banned
It would be like, I mean, some kind of slow-burn authoritarianism in Europe. A German victory would embolden the Kaiser, the right-wing and the Junker aristocrats, not the liberals and socialists. There is a reason why a quite well-known SD politician IOTL decided to feed information to the Entente, literally committed treason.
Also, never forget that a large standing army was almost always a legitimate threat to democratic institutions prior to 1945, and no standing army is bigger than the Heer in a CP victory TL. The German right-wingers and nationalists held firm control over the Heer, especially the officer corps, and both the army and the officers swore loyalty to the Kaiser and considered themselves guardians of the state rather than servants. These people could simply march in and dismiss the Reichstag any time.
Yes, the intellectual currents in pre-war Germany were already extremely Volkish and nationalistic. But I would expect a slow-burn kind of authoritarianism, rather than Nazism, which is kinda fucked up in its own way because such state can last very long.
Also, never forget that a large standing army was almost always a legitimate threat to democratic institutions prior to 1945, and no standing army is bigger than the Heer in a CP victory TL. The German right-wingers and nationalists held firm control over the Heer, especially the officer corps, and both the army and the officers swore loyalty to the Kaiser and considered themselves guardians of the state rather than servants. These people could simply march in and dismiss the Reichstag any time.
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Do you think the British would lose most of their territories in this scenario thus ending the Empire much sooner?
Fascism requires a strong man and extreme nationalism. Unlike Italy, which only gained a bit and so would become fascist OTL, Germany is chocking on its nationalist aspirations. Why would people vote in fascists when their demands would have already been met. What would the fascists even angle for to annex?
So no, I think the authoritarian route mentioned by @Thomas1195 would be the most similar to what you saw. Even then, that seems unlikely once the Kaiser effectively does nothing during the war.
Garrison
Donor
You've offered up zero by the way of a scenario for how this happens? Or what kind of victory? You've utterly changed the politics of the pre-WWI world but you don't offer up any PODs or parameters? Based on the details you've provided the answer is yes, the Entente might start a second World War, or decide to emigrate to Mars, your setup is vague enough for either to be plausible.
Deleted member 96212
Speaking of which, I once read a rather persuasive thesis written by @Alexniko that White Victory in Russia would end up being leagues worse than a Stalin run one. Whether that's correct, not my place to say, but as I said, he was persuasive.
Shall I repost it here? I didn't mention the power struggle between the various white generals following the defeat of soviet power in my orriginal post, so I would somewhat supplement it. I could also just quote myself, in that case it wouldn't take that much space in this thread
Deleted member 96212
Shall I repost it here? I didn't mention the power struggle between the various white generals following the defeat of soviet power in my orriginal post. I could also just quote myself, in that case it wouldn't take that much space in this thread
I think self-quoting would be the best idea.
I tend to view the german experience from 1871 to 1914 in a more positive light than most people, but then, I'm brazilian and, perhaps, not subject to a certain anglophile bias that purveys that certain countries are paragons of the light and their enemies are are to plunge the world in the eternal darkness. The German Empire was an evolving democracy: it was more democratic in 1892 than it was in 1871, it was more democratic in 1912 than it was 1892.
While many people like to bring the "Silent Dictatorship" argument, it's often ignored the fact that the french military excercised similar power to the german miltary in the first two years of war. In addition, german civilians were to be judged by civilian courts while french civilians were subject to the whims of military commanders to decide which court would have jurisdiction over their case. This is a proof you can't simply sweept institutions under the rug, their legitimacy and role in society will still be there. What you'll be the potential argument of a cabal of supposed generals to hold on the Siege Law once the war is over?
The army had every opportunity to stage a coup from the early 20's to the late 30's, in Germany. They had the veteran manpower pool, the secret weapons cache and even a significant portion of dissatisfied people that would aid in such process - yet they never did it. Therefore, the argument "they can, thus they will" is terribly flawed. We know for a fact that the german people were not mindless automaton but capable to make their grievances be considered by offending parties and, if the army begins to ask for unreasonable demands after victory is achieved, they are in for a bad surprise.
(Not gonna lie, I love the notion of the tired, retired and politically uninterested field marshal Hindenburg being privy to some divine epithet and deciding to become dictator, because why not?!)
While many people like to bring the "Silent Dictatorship" argument, it's often ignored the fact that the french military excercised similar power to the german miltary in the first two years of war. In addition, german civilians were to be judged by civilian courts while french civilians were subject to the whims of military commanders to decide which court would have jurisdiction over their case. This is a proof you can't simply sweept institutions under the rug, their legitimacy and role in society will still be there. What you'll be the potential argument of a cabal of supposed generals to hold on the Siege Law once the war is over?
The army had every opportunity to stage a coup from the early 20's to the late 30's, in Germany. They had the veteran manpower pool, the secret weapons cache and even a significant portion of dissatisfied people that would aid in such process - yet they never did it. Therefore, the argument "they can, thus they will" is terribly flawed. We know for a fact that the german people were not mindless automaton but capable to make their grievances be considered by offending parties and, if the army begins to ask for unreasonable demands after victory is achieved, they are in for a bad surprise.
(Not gonna lie, I love the notion of the tired, retired and politically uninterested field marshal Hindenburg being privy to some divine epithet and deciding to become dictator, because why not?!)