RAF buys F-15Cs. Can they be used in the Falklands War?

[KarmaPolice]

Yes; for the RN was very aware of how 'iffy' the whole operation was. Precious few Harriers, of unknown quality. General lack of air defence weapons and an enemy who knew it's weaknesses. And no reinforcements. The 'nightmare scenario' was an air and/or sea attack on the Task Force which managed to either break through or evade the escorts and strike Hermes and/or Invincible. Secondary nightmare; enemy manages to sink Canberra before it got to San Carlos. Either situation would have been Game Over.

One advantage the RN had was knowing that the enemy had limited air capability East of the islands. If the enemy could use Port Stanley to refuel/rearm, then it was possible the Argentinian Air Force could have pressed their attacks much more strongly [and therefore increasing the risk of the 'nightmare' occurring]. Therefore, close the airfield.

 

[Crowbar Six]

The best you’d manage is the occasional two ship patrol of less then half an hour over the islands. So a publicity stunt for the RAF, just like Black Buck. Now once Stanley is captured the F-15s could deploy out there but by that point the war is basically all over but the crying.

Black Buck was not a publicity stunt. It was meant to demonstrate the RAF could put a bomber over the Falklands and by hitting the airfield it would serve to deter the Argentinians from basing high performance fighters at Port Stanley, it was also hoped the Argentinian Air Force would be concerned the RAF might hit targets on the mainland forcing them to not move additional SAM's to the islands and to keep interceptors tied up with base defence. Most importantly, it also let the Argentinians. the US and Latin American countries know the UK was serious.

Yes, it was partly political, partly military and also partly propaganda but it was most certainly not a publicity stunt

 

[DougM]

What they really needed was aurborn early warning. The Harriers were good enough to get the job done, they just needed to know when/where to go.

 

[Riain]

The later Black Buck missions were Wild Weasel, hunting the Argentine radars with Shrike ARMs. This is something that the RN could not do, although there was work going on to fit the G3s with Shrikes but this wasn't finished in time for the war.

The Black Buck missions didn't detract from any other mission, landed a bomb on the runway, caused the Argies to be on alert for the rest of the war, destroyed 1 radar and damaged another. A lot of air campaigns have achieved much less in 6 attack missions.

 

[Simon]

To get back to part of the original thrust of the thread would the Royal Air Force have been interested in the F-15C? I'm assuming that it would have been purchased in place of the Panavia Tornado. The two main challenges that I can see are the question of maintaining defence industry as without it there could be a gap that negatively affects design/production capabilities, and whether it has enough endurance – different from range – to cover the Air Defence Variant's duties over the North Atlantic.

 

[CV12Hornet]

To get back to part of the original thrust of the thread would the Royal Air Force have been interested in the F-15C? I'm assuming that it would have been purchased in place of the Panavia Tornado. The two main challenges that I can see are the question of maintaining defence industry as without it there could be a gap that negatively affects design/production capabilities, and whether it has enough endurance – different from range – to cover the Air Defence Variant's duties over the North Atlantic.

With conformal fuel tanks, no external tanks, and 4 Sparrows, the F-15C comes pretty close to the listed endurance capabilities of the Tornado ADV. 1.88 hours loiter at 400 nautical miles compared to 2 hours for the Tornado, though I'll admit to not knowing the loadout of the Tornados in that role.

 

[KarmaPolice]

To get back to part of the original thrust of the thread would the Royal Air Force have been interested in the F-15C? I'm assuming that it would have been purchased in place of the Panavia Tornado. The two main challenges that I can see are the question of maintaining defence industry as without it there could be a gap that negatively affects design/production capabilities, and whether it has enough endurance – different from range – to cover the Air Defence Variant's duties over the North Atlantic.

More importantly, how would the RAF been able to afford to buy new kit in an era of never-ending defence cuts?

 

[Tempest II]

I can certainly understand the questions around whether the UK could afford F-15Cs; I can imagine the penny-pinching Defence reviews would probably have lead to second hand A/B models being purchased from the USAF if the Tornado ADV was cancelled, if the Eagle was considered at all.

This leads me to think an earlier POD may be needed, specifically with the F-111K. Should this order not be cancelled, this should butterfly away the all UK Tornado variants (GRs & Fs), the SPETCAT Jaguar & RAF Buccaneers at the very least, with the TSR-2 & AFVG cancelled as per the OTL too.
This would certainly leave the UK more reliant on US equipment, but I personally don't see that as a disaster (IMHO) & could certainly save money in the longer term.
Certainly the UK should continue with the Harrier & S/VTOL route, ideally with contracts with the US similar to the OTL that their forces will be customers for such aircraft. Personally, I'd like to see the Harrier II / AV-8B never happening & "replaced" by a supersonic Harrier variant or the P. 1214 / P.1216 jets.
However, I'm aware such contracts may not be honoured, as with what happened in the ASRAAM / AIM-9X scenario so perhaps some wishful thinking is present here.

1970s RAF combat aircraft:
English Electric Lightnings.
F-4K & F-4Ms AKA Phantom FG. 1s & FGR. 2s (with Speys if only to learn the lesson that trying to re-engine US jets can be a time-consuming & expensive undertaking).
F-111K replacing V-Bombers & Canberras in the strike role.
Harrier GR. 1 / 3s.

1980s:
F-15C / Ds to replace Lightnings & eventually F-4s. The RAF will probably want a D variant model with a WSO station in the rear seat. The Eagles are designated F. 1s & T. 2s in British service. They're modified with some UK avionics, Skyflash missiles plus probe & drogue refueling capability.
F-4s slowly being phased out by the end of the decade; F-4Js / Phantom F. 3s never bought due to Eagle order.
Supersonic Harrier II / P. 1216 variants replacing the Harrier GR. 1 / 3s RN FAA Sea Harriers.
F-111Ks with incremental upgrades. Order for F-15Es placed in the late 80s to replace the Pigs.

1990s:
F-15C / D Eagles with incremental upgrades such as AMRAAM, leading to Eagle F. 3s. RAF Eagles deployed to the Gulf during 1990 for Op Granby.
F-111Ks being replaced by F-15Es AKA Eagle FGR. 4s. I have doubts that these will be ready in time for the Gulf War though so the Pig will be sent instead.
Supersonic Harrier II / P. 1216 variants incremental upgrades; also deployed to the Gulf.

2000s:
I'm leaning towards the UK never joining Eurofighter (if it even happens due to the prior butterflies) & instead stick with US jets.
Strike Eagles upgraded to FGR. 5 status with the latest avionics & "smart" weapons - Enhanced Paveway, Storm Shadow, Brimstone etc (or US equivalents like LJADM, JSOWs, SDB).
F-15C / D Eagle ASRAAM & avionic upgrades - perhaps AESA radar & Meteor missiles.
RAF Fifth Gen fighter procurement: in an ideal world, RAF F-22As would be bought to replace Eagle Fs. However, due to the technology involved & the cost, this is probably not realistic.
Instead, the RAF's mixed Eagle fleet will start to be replaced circa 2020 with a mixed F-35A & F-35B fleet. The Lightning IIs will also replace the P. 1216 jets for both the RAF & FAA.

I'm also leaning towards, due to the cost of the high end aircraft all mentioned above, to the RAF getting a more operational Hawk variant. Perhaps HM Treasury during the 1998 SDR, after seeing the upgrade costs to the Eagles & the prices of Lightning IIs, forces RAF to reduce those orders to procure a fleet of cheaper aircraft. These could lead an RAF Hawk comparable to the Hawk 200 series. This could actually be beneficial for COIN work during Afghanistan & post-invasion Iraq where higher end jets are realistically overkill.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

I can certainly understand the questions around whether the UK could afford F-15Cs; I can imagine the penny-pinching Defence reviews would probably have lead to second hand A/B models being purchased from the USAF if the Tornado ADV was cancelled, if the Eagle was considered at all.








2000s:
I'm leaning towards the UK never joining Eurofighter (if it even happens due to the prior butterflies) & instead stick with US jets.
Strike Eagles upgraded to FGR. 5 status with the latest avionics & "smart" weapons - Enhanced Paveway, Storm Shadow, Brimstone etc (or US equivalents like LJADM, JSOWs, SDB).
F-15C / D Eagle ASRAAM & avionic upgrades - perhaps AESA radar & Meteor missiles.
RAF Fifth Gen fighter procurement: in an ideal world, RAF F-22As would be bought to replace Eagle Fs. However, due to the technology involved & the cost, this is probably not realistic.
Instead, the RAF's mixed Eagle fleet will start to be replaced circa 2020 with a mixed F-35A & F-35B fleet. The Lightning IIs will also replace the P. 1216 jets for both the RAF & FAA.

I'm also leaning towards, due to the cost of the high end aircraft all mentioned above, to the RAF getting a more operational Hawk variant. Perhaps HM Treasury during the 1998 SDR, after seeing the upgrade costs to the Eagles & the prices of Lightning IIs, forces RAF to reduce those orders to procure a fleet of cheaper aircraft. These could lead an RAF Hawk comparable to the Hawk 200 series. This could actually be beneficial for COIN work during Afghanistan & post-invasion Iraq where higher end jets are realistically overkill.

Britain building the P.1216 butterfly's the Eurofighter altogether, it's essentially a British design with other countries building bits of it. The P1216 probably rules out the F-35B as well, as it's likely to have only just entered service when the J.S.F. program starts in the late 90's. They won't see the need for a new supersonic VSTOL aircraft at that time, and for it's role while stealth is nice to have it's not have to have.

 

[Tempest II]

Britain building the P.1216 butterfly's the Eurofighter altogether, it's essentially a British design with other countries building bits of it. The P1216 probably rules out the F-35B as well, as it's likely to have only just entered service when the J.S.F. program starts in the late 90's. They won't see the need for a new supersonic VSTOL aircraft at that time, and for it's role while stealth is nice to have it's not have to have.

Very good point; I image the JSF requirement could well change with no VTOL version being necessary. Especially should the USMC buy P. 1216s.

Maybe Germany, Italy , Spain etc end up with the French Rafale, depending on how the lack of Tornado programme goes.

 

[Belisarius II]

Not practical. You'd need too many IFR to provide fighter cover in the battle area. You could fly them in once you capture the airfield at Port Stanley, but at that point the war would be over.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

F-111K replacing V-Bombers & Canberras in the strike role.

They would use the F-111Ks as improvised interceptors in the Falklands War because AIUI they had a much longer range than the F-15C.

 

[Riain]

There is something else that was cancelled in the 60s that would be much better than the F111K for providing fighter cover over the Falklands: CVA01.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

There is something else that was cancelled in the 60s that would be much better than the F111K for providing fighter cover over the Falklands: CVA01.

I don't see it being built ITTL. Regrettably.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Snip

AIUI the RAF only wanted 50 F-111Ks and the AFVG and Jaguar projects were begun before the F-111K was cancelled.

I think what you suggest would require no devaluation of the Pound in November 1967 which AIUI led to the cancellation of the 50 F-111Ks that were on order along with 7 F-4K Phantoms and 46 F-4M Phantoms. It also led to the cancellation of Eagle's Phantomisation because the withdrawal from East of Suez was brought forward from 1975 to the end of 1971. ITTL Eagle might end up being run on until the end of 1978 like Ark Royal provided that her grounding at Devonport in the early 1970s was avoided.

146 Buccaneer S Mk 2 were ordered (96 RN, 46 RAF and 4 RAE) and 13 were cancelled (the last 12 for the RN and one RAE aircraft) so 133 were actually built for HM Forces. The last RN aircraft was delivered in 1969 and the 49 built for the RAF and RAE were delivered 1970-77. Therefore, it might be possible to substitute 50 additional F-111K for the last 49 Buccaneers in spite of the extra expense.

I'm not sure that 202 F-111K could be done instead of the 202 production Jaguars that were delivered 1973-79 IOTL. Apart from the cost they don't do the same job. It also butterflies away the export sales to Ecuador, India, Nigeria and Oman. However, if they could that would be a grand total of 300-odd F-111K which combined with the F-111s and FB-111s built for the RAAF and USAF might reduce the overall cost. We might see the USAF buying the planned number of FB-111s and the RAAF ordering more F-111Cs.

If the RAF buys the Eagle the F-15K as it would be known would be built under licence in the UK. I was going to write that it would buy an interdiction/strike version first instead of the Tornado IDS and then a fighter version (F-15M) instead of the Tornado IDS. However, between 100 and 300 F-111Ks have been built ITTL so I agree that the F-15 interceptor will be build first to replace the Lightning and Phantom. Then there will be the RAF version of Strike Eagle to replace the F-111Ks.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Personally, I'd like to see the Harrier II / AV-8B never happening & "replaced" by a supersonic Harrier variant or the P. 1214 / P.1216 jets.

If the RAF did buy Eagle instead of Tornado there is going to be a lot of money available for R&D on other aircraft. One of them might be the AV-16 Advanced Harrier. It's unlikely that they can get it into service instead of the Sea Harrier Mk 1, but I do see the RAF, USMC, Spain and Italy buying instead of the Harrier II and the RN being allowed to buy it instead of the Sea Harrier Mk 2.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Snip

What becomes of the Starfighter Replacement Group ITTL?

IOTL

• The Canadians dropped out and eventually bought the F/A-18 Hornet.
• The Belgians and Dutch dropped out and formed the "Deal of the Century" consortium with the Danes and Norwegians which built the F-16 under licence.
• The surviving members, Germany, Italy and UK formed Panavia and built the Tornado. Though the Germans cut their initial requirement from 600 to 322 Tornado IDS and the 175 Alpha Jets might have been a substitute for some of the 278 aircraft that were cut from their Panavia requirement.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Snip

IOTL the Saudis bought 96 Tornado IDS and 24 Tornado ADV. AFAIK this was because the USA wouldn't sell more Eagles to them. Do the Saudis buy Mirage 2000 or even Mirage 4000 ITTL plus some Alpha Jet trainers instead of the Hawks that they bought IOTL?

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

This would certainly leave the UK more reliant on US equipment, but I personally don't see that as a disaster (IMHO) & could certainly save money in the longer term.

In addition to the types you listed the UK probably buys 50 Orions as the P-3K instead of the 49 Nimrod R Mk 1 and Mk Mk 1 aircraft bought IOTL.

It would also buy 12 E-3 Sentrys in the 1970s instead of Nimrod AEW and that isn't because there weren't 11 surplus LRMP Nimrod airframes to convert to AEW Mk 3 standard ITTL. They might buy KE-3 tankers or convert "low mileage" ex-airline Boeing 707s to replace the Victor instead of the ex-airline VC.10s in the interests of standardisation. If they did they might buy some more ex-airline Boeing 707s to replace the existing force of VC.10 transport aircraft.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

They would use the F-111Ks as improvised interceptors in the Falklands War because AIUI they had a much longer range than the F-15C.

Having thought about it more it's probable that had the original order for 50 F-111Ks not been cancelled more F-111Ks might be bought instead of Tornado rather than than Eagle and Strike Eagle.

I think the F-111K would do the job of the Tornado IDS better than Strike Eagle could and a "proper" F-111K ADV might do the job that the Tornado ADV's job better than the fighter version of the Eagle.