Allies hold the island of Crete
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formion
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@NOMISYRRUC excellent points, every single one of them.
I would like to ask @Lascaris, who has a better understanding than me of the greek theater of operations, what would happen if the allied corps was too late to arrive due to Commonwealth politics ?
I would like to ask @Lascaris, who has a better understanding than me of the greek theater of operations, what would happen if the allied corps was too late to arrive due to Commonwealth politics ?
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After posting the post I remembered that some of the fighters flown from aircraft carriers to Malta in the club runs were flown onto airfields in Cyrenaica and I might have remembered correctly that fighters were flown to Malta from Egypt via Cyrenaica when the BEC forces were occupying it.
Therefore, there would be no need for club runs in the second half of 1941 ITTL and therefore Ark Royal couldn't be sunk on one. Although all the ships not sunk in the Mediterranean between the evacuation of mainland Greece and the end of 1941 IOTL might have been sunk or put out of action later on.
Also the British War Cabinet gave serious consideration to invading Sicily in the second half of 1941. That wouldn't happen ITTL,
However, the retention of Crete would isolate the Dodecanese Islands and the British may well attempt an invasion in the second half of 1941. This was planned before the collapse of Greece IOTL. Leyforce and the 3 Glenn class infantry landing ships were sent to the Mediterranean early in 1941 for that very purpose.
AIUI the Greek Government didn't want any British help other than RAF squadrons and the force defending Suda Bay. The second AIUI is that the Greeks suspected that the arrival of a substantial BEC army would trigger German intervention and AFIAK that's precisely why the Germans did intervene.
I'm more certain that the British high commands in London and Cairo were against it because they thought that it was only worth sending a force of at least 12 divisions and that the only person wholeheartedly behind the scheme was Winston Churchill.
Alan Brooke might have talked him out of it, but he didn't become CIGS until December 1941. Therefore, I think the most plausible PODs are that Ioannis Metaxas doesn't die in January 1941 or that he still dies and his successor Alexandros Koryzis doesn't accept Churchill's offer.
Which of course would lead to a spate of "What if British ground troops had been sent to Greece?" threads on the TTL version of this forum and cries of "This is ASB!" when the OTL version of events is proposed.
Mining the sea around the western end, spot of night gardening, would help complicate matters.
Only if the TTL British invasion of the Dodecanese Islands in the second half of 1941 is a cockup and 2,000 soldiers are trapped.
According to Wikipaedia the part of Miller was written for Kenneth Moore, but Rank wouldn't loan him to Columbia. I wonder how that would have altered the film and affected his subsequent career.
Has anyone noticed that the live action shots are of American destroyers, probably Fletchers and in the model shots they are British Javelin class?
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AFAIK the Middle East Wellingtons were attacking at night. I don't know if night bombing in over Mediterranean was any easier than over northern Europe. I think the canal will be within range of Gee when that comes into service in 1942 though.
There were 3 Wellington squadrons in Egypt by early 1941 with a UE of 12 or 16 aircraft, I don't remember which, but it makes a total of 36 or 48 aircraft when the squadrons are at full strength. More Wellington squadrons arrived in Egypt over the course of 1941.
I think that Mallory and Andreas gained a lot of their experience in occupied Crete. With Crete holding, they may still be with their units! Not nearly as cool.
Probably best to start with mining (which is low risk) and then take out the canal itself when the forces have built up a bit then I guess. 48 isn't really enough that you can risk them on something that isn't a sure thing especially as by this point the waste of time over Germany is gathering pace and all the potential replacement Bombers will be committed there. Actually using them for tactical strikes and waiting to hit Germany when the force was built up (and the aids needed for semi accurate bombing were in place) would be common sense but...RAF and strategic bombing...What can you do?
Hmm. There is no doubt of course that the Greeks will fight British aid or no British aid. So assuming Metaxas dies on schedule the elephant in the room is Papagos failure to redeploy in OTL. TTL there is no hope of British reinforcements and without the British no hope of Yugoslav intervention either so nothing sustaining Papagos hopes that it is reasonable to try keeping significant forces in Eastern Macedonia. OTL he did order pulling them back in mid-late March the move being stopped when the Yugoslav coup took place. TTL the only practical option is pulling back to the Olympus line. Doing so for the East Macedonia Army detachment divisions is pretty straightforward, say the divisions are pulled back with the Nestos and Evros brigades left behind to back up the forts. For forces in Albania rather trickier. Pulling back to the Olympus line positions cannot probably happen till the Italian spring offensive is beaten back, while the German invasion will be starting around 1-2 April without the Yugoslav coup. So call it a week to 10 days roughly pulling back before the Germans joining the fray. On the other hand Yugoslavia being out of the picture is a major advantage for the defender as the Germans need to go through the Metaxas line and so does their supply line.
So in our alternative say the Germans invade on April 1st. From a rough calculation it takes a bit over 5 days for the Metaxas line to collapse. Then with Germans advancing roughly 50km a day they are in Thessaloniki by April 8th and come in contact with the actual Greek line of defence on April 12 after advancing about 300 km to do so. That's 18 days since the Greeks start redeploying in Albania, enough to at a minimum pull back to their new positions. Which means 9 infantry and 2 cavalry divisions (I'm counting here the 19th motorized as a cavalry one given its miniscule size) in position to meet the German advance facing up to 9 German divisions (2, 5, 9 Panzer and 6 infantry and mountain ones). That's arguably up to the limit German logistics will be able to sustain. Still enough for the Germans to win but at least one more week of fighting at notable cost to the Germans. Post that in depends on whether the Greeks pulled back in good enough order to mount a serious defence at Thermopylae. Either way the Germans should win in the mainland but not before the Greeks are able to evacuate significant forces (call it 30-40,000 men) to Crete.
formion
Banned
Thank you for the detailed and excellent reply!
Which forces do you think could have been evacuated? After the Germans break in the thessalian plain it will be an onslaught and I doubt that a Thermopylae line can be formed.
Where there any regiments in the south that were not committed? Or will it be green recruits ?
Which forces do you think could have been evacuated? After the Germans break in the thessalian plain it will be an onslaught and I doubt that a Thermopylae line can be formed.
Where there any regiments in the south that were not committed? Or will it be green recruits ?
Anyone else notice that all the equipment the Germans responded to the fake invasion with was American? M-8 armored cars and M-116 pack howitzers?
In OTL the Germans crossed the Aliakmon on the 14th but took Larissa only on the 19th. I don't see them doing any faster here... rather the reverse, with the passes strongly held. It is physically impossible to have ~180,000 men in the passes, large forces would be necessarily in reserve further south say at the Elasson-Larisa area feeding the fight up north. These should have more than enough time to retreat south before the Germans are out of the passes in sufficient force.
More effort in clearing the Med for convoy traffic, faster supply if Britain's eaters commitments?
The other POD might be Wavell having a better appreciation of Rommel's intentions
OTL he believed that he had time to refit his worn out Divisions and continue to train recent green arrivals etc
Part of this IIRC was ULTRA telling him that Rommel was screaming for more stuff and in order to get it he was making out that he was weaker than he actually was - not to fool the British but to fool his own hierarchy in order to get more 'stuff'!
So perhaps have Wavell have a better appreciation and do more to retain units in NA
A combination of a better appreciation of Rommel's intentions, Australian and New Zealand reluctance to get involved in another 'Gallipoli' and Greek resistance to having British troops on the mainland for fear of inviting a German response (to late as it happened - Hitler had already decided to invade on or about Nov 4th 1940 when British forces arrived on Crete fearing for air attacks on the Romanian oil).
OTL he believed that he had time to refit his worn out Divisions and continue to train recent green arrivals etc
Part of this IIRC was ULTRA telling him that Rommel was screaming for more stuff and in order to get it he was making out that he was weaker than he actually was - not to fool the British but to fool his own hierarchy in order to get more 'stuff'!
So perhaps have Wavell have a better appreciation and do more to retain units in NA
A combination of a better appreciation of Rommel's intentions, Australian and New Zealand reluctance to get involved in another 'Gallipoli' and Greek resistance to having British troops on the mainland for fear of inviting a German response (to late as it happened - Hitler had already decided to invade on or about Nov 4th 1940 when British forces arrived on Crete fearing for air attacks on the Romanian oil).
Since I was the one who posted the previous thread on the subject I suppose it is only fitting that I bring the main points that were, if not the conscensus of the main thread, at last what seemed to me to emerge as the majority opinions, so to speak:
I. The simplest and most straightforward way to is to prevent the New Zealanders to retreat from the main Hill guarding Malemme airport, either by having a commander on the ground who understand that its essentially the most important piece of real estate on the island or a brigadier that would actually order said commander to stand his ground at all cost until the sun is down and that the allies would counterattack with all they have at dusk, when the german air cover would be less effective. In many ways Day 1 was pretty horrid for the Germans and having them fail to take Malemme quickly would probably be enough to allow the Allies to prevail, even if the Axis forces are likely to still be trying for a while and not abandon the paratroopers to their faith.
II. The germans definitely have the capacity to, if not completely stop at the very least severely slow down the Allied build up and force them to use precious ressources to keep the island. The thing is, it will even be more costly for the germans to keep the pressure in the long run if they are to do so.
III. Due to Hitler's fixation on Russia and his tendency to only do the strictest minimum he felt he could get away with in the Medditerannean ods are that the vast majority of the ressources used will come from things that we used elsewhere in the Med theater rather then at the expense of Barbarossa (whose schedule probably won't be affected). Obviously that will tilt things in the Med theater to the allies advantage.
IV. On a similar note, most of the (pretty significant) looses taken by the Royal Navy were suffered during the evacuation, and as a result the Brits should suffer far less at sea ITTL while the fact that the italian landing of OTL is overwhelmingly likely to end up being an attempted landing ITTL would mean that Mussolini would loose precious assets on land and at sea that he didn't OTL (the germans would probably loose some of the mountain troops they landed in OTL as well).
V. Overall one can assume that the Luftwaffe is likely to suffer more ITTL as well, while the allied airforce will be less hardly hit, if only because they could more easily recuperate the pilots who got shot down.
VI. With Crete still in allied hands and the logistics of a german takeover of the Dodecanese far more complicated ITTL the Greek government in-exile will have the material to rebuild a small army (I'd assume the brits would allow them to recruit in Cyprus as well) and possibly even go on a small islands hoping campaign to take the down the nearest german airbase and/or give themselves bases to more easily support the greek resistance. Between that and still holding a significant part of the greek territory you can assume they will have far more prestige in OTL as well, which will both make dealing with the greek resistance even harder for the Germans and will obviously have important butterflies after the war.
I. The simplest and most straightforward way to is to prevent the New Zealanders to retreat from the main Hill guarding Malemme airport, either by having a commander on the ground who understand that its essentially the most important piece of real estate on the island or a brigadier that would actually order said commander to stand his ground at all cost until the sun is down and that the allies would counterattack with all they have at dusk, when the german air cover would be less effective. In many ways Day 1 was pretty horrid for the Germans and having them fail to take Malemme quickly would probably be enough to allow the Allies to prevail, even if the Axis forces are likely to still be trying for a while and not abandon the paratroopers to their faith.
II. The germans definitely have the capacity to, if not completely stop at the very least severely slow down the Allied build up and force them to use precious ressources to keep the island. The thing is, it will even be more costly for the germans to keep the pressure in the long run if they are to do so.
III. Due to Hitler's fixation on Russia and his tendency to only do the strictest minimum he felt he could get away with in the Medditerannean ods are that the vast majority of the ressources used will come from things that we used elsewhere in the Med theater rather then at the expense of Barbarossa (whose schedule probably won't be affected). Obviously that will tilt things in the Med theater to the allies advantage.
IV. On a similar note, most of the (pretty significant) looses taken by the Royal Navy were suffered during the evacuation, and as a result the Brits should suffer far less at sea ITTL while the fact that the italian landing of OTL is overwhelmingly likely to end up being an attempted landing ITTL would mean that Mussolini would loose precious assets on land and at sea that he didn't OTL (the germans would probably loose some of the mountain troops they landed in OTL as well).
V. Overall one can assume that the Luftwaffe is likely to suffer more ITTL as well, while the allied airforce will be less hardly hit, if only because they could more easily recuperate the pilots who got shot down.
VI. With Crete still in allied hands and the logistics of a german takeover of the Dodecanese far more complicated ITTL the Greek government in-exile will have the material to rebuild a small army (I'd assume the brits would allow them to recruit in Cyprus as well) and possibly even go on a small islands hoping campaign to take the down the nearest german airbase and/or give themselves bases to more easily support the greek resistance. Between that and still holding a significant part of the greek territory you can assume they will have far more prestige in OTL as well, which will both make dealing with the greek resistance even harder for the Germans and will obviously have important butterflies after the war.
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Yeah, tbh I don't know too much about the battle of Crete, I really wanna get a book about it but school and money. I was thinking that the extra division would be nice for the battle and also provide a solid backbone that the Greek army could build from.
Capture some of these
en.m.wikipedia.org
Adapt as AT weapon with Burney designed HESH shell. Projector, Infantry, Rocket, Anti-Tank, aka the PIRAT gun.
7.5 cm Leichtgeschütz 40 - Wikipedia
Adapt as AT weapon with Burney designed HESH shell. Projector, Infantry, Rocket, Anti-Tank, aka the PIRAT gun.
Winning at Crete, in any fashion, would do for British morale what Gettysburg did for Union morale in the American civil war.
Sure, some aspects of the union victory contained gloss: Confederate army was badly under supplied (a detour was made in the march to capture.... shoes), as the battle progressed, CSA forces become out numbered but still had to fight on on the offensive- and still came pretty close to winning. They then withdrew intact.
But, at the end of the day, Union forces, for the first time ever, stopped the CSA flagship army commanded by their "A" team leaders and comprised of their best units. The CSA Flagship had been turned back before, but those earlier circumstances had not truly demonstrated that they were beatable.
Something different was in the air after Gettysburg. The Union army had closed the skill gap to the extent that while individual CSA units could still be tactically very lethal, the the CSA Flagship Army as a whole clearly beatable as a whole army.
A victory at Crete would be similar for the Commonwealth. Previously unbeatable "A team" Parachute and Mountain troops are stopped by..... ordinary Tommies. The seemingly unbridgeable German to Commonwealth skill gap narrowed and perhaps even closed. Individual German units remain very lethal- but their collective whole is demonstrated to be beatable.
Sure, there would be some gloss- The Germans were outnumbered, a good number of the Germans would probably withdraw by destroyer and fishing boats, a disproportionate number of the prisoners maybe badly wounded and left to be captured. But.... at the end of the day, and some gloss aside, the German Army "A team" was stopped- and that is yuge.
A Common wealth victory may open up other possibilities in regards to the Geo political sense:
- The sun was slowly setting on Empires, but not everyone in London cared. How "Greek" did Cretans feel in 1941? Would the Greek government in exile be invited to Crete? Or, would they remain elsewhere due to uhmmm..... "logistical problems"? Would the Cretans be presented with say a "guided referendum" regarding affiliation with the Empire? Would it need to be that guided?
Sure, some aspects of the union victory contained gloss: Confederate army was badly under supplied (a detour was made in the march to capture.... shoes), as the battle progressed, CSA forces become out numbered but still had to fight on on the offensive- and still came pretty close to winning. They then withdrew intact.
But, at the end of the day, Union forces, for the first time ever, stopped the CSA flagship army commanded by their "A" team leaders and comprised of their best units. The CSA Flagship had been turned back before, but those earlier circumstances had not truly demonstrated that they were beatable.
Something different was in the air after Gettysburg. The Union army had closed the skill gap to the extent that while individual CSA units could still be tactically very lethal, the the CSA Flagship Army as a whole clearly beatable as a whole army.
A victory at Crete would be similar for the Commonwealth. Previously unbeatable "A team" Parachute and Mountain troops are stopped by..... ordinary Tommies. The seemingly unbridgeable German to Commonwealth skill gap narrowed and perhaps even closed. Individual German units remain very lethal- but their collective whole is demonstrated to be beatable.
Sure, there would be some gloss- The Germans were outnumbered, a good number of the Germans would probably withdraw by destroyer and fishing boats, a disproportionate number of the prisoners maybe badly wounded and left to be captured. But.... at the end of the day, and some gloss aside, the German Army "A team" was stopped- and that is yuge.
A Common wealth victory may open up other possibilities in regards to the Geo political sense:
- The sun was slowly setting on Empires, but not everyone in London cared. How "Greek" did Cretans feel in 1941? Would the Greek government in exile be invited to Crete? Or, would they remain elsewhere due to uhmmm..... "logistical problems"? Would the Cretans be presented with say a "guided referendum" regarding affiliation with the Empire? Would it need to be that guided?
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