White Victory in Russia; Horrible?

Like, under the Soviet system, they found that the Il-2 Sturmovik ground-attack plane was really good. So Stalin told the people in charge of making ground-attack planes, "Get me every fucking Sturmovik you can, or heads will fucking roll." And through forced labor, forced overtime, and other repressive measures, a metric fuckload of Sturmoviks were built. The Soviets were also really good at finding an affordable, easily-maintained piece of equipment and just making a lot of it on pain of some poor fucker's entire family being gulag'ed, while German machinery was pretty much invariably maintenance-heavy and expensive, and hard to properly mass-produce. This really showed late in WW2 when the Germans just couldn't produce enough tanks and aircraft to stop the Soviet armored offensive.

The Soviet system was long-term unsustainable due to the lack of accountability and the inherent appeal of corruption to those with power, but it sure as Hell worked better than the Nazi one. Which yes is damning with faint praise, but still. "Actually sort of effective in a wartime emergency" is better than "insane ponzi scheme".
 
Next wonderful defense of Stalin: His economy was more efficient than Nazi Germany. Folks once more you are defending a guy who killed millions just to stay in power.
I'm not defending anyone. I'm saying that Stalin, while a psychopathic asshole who murdered millions, deliberately starved Ukraine to fund his schemes, and set a literal pedophile rapist on his own people, ran a state that managed to do some things not 100% horribly. (and, in fact, the Soviet education system was pretty impressive for all the propaganda that permeated it, because it DID raise the literacy rate high and fast)
 

ferdi254

Banned
Yes and Hitler did build a couple thousand km of Autobahnen. So what? There may be some totally incompetent dictators who have nothing positive at all but when it comes to Hitler and Stalin they were just psychopathic murderous mass killers. And any discussion how it could have come worse without them is just spitting on the graves of the millions killed by them.

And the USSR economy in WW2 without LL???
 
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White Russia will have massive debts, largely to France (who then has debts to the UK). White Russian industrialisation will be geared towards slotting into French production: it will be raw materials and low labour cost. Canning. Textiles. Soft industry.

There will be a number of urban uprisings due to lack of food. There will be a number of rural uprisings due to the reimposition of landownership and taxes. These will not be humored.
 
Stalin left a literate, mostly functional USSR that was able to hold together despite being run by a total moron for most of the '60s and the '70s
Stalin, for all that he had millions of people murdered, deliberately starved millions more to fund his industrialization plan (which he didn't need to do and wouldn't have if he were at all a competent administrator), and terrorized his people with state sec, at least brought them basic education and (eventually) a standard of living increase.
The actual increase of the standard of living is Khrushchev's, not Stalin's doing. It's the most striking when you look at the massive housing programmes - Khrushchev had one, Stalin didn't.
 
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Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn estimated 60 million and he knew first hand the conditions in a gulag.
Other scholars say 20 million minimum with a 60 million maximum.
Source is below.
In a word bollocks.
"Reputable historians" make no such estimate, 20 million is an outlier and 10 million vastly more plausible.
The IBT is not a reputable source for anything.
 

marathag

Banned
After the 1917 Revolution(and being threatened with being shot for his work for the Tzars), Igor Sikorsky went to France till WWI ended, then to the USA where he taught Math till he saved enough to open his own small aircraft company in the mid '20s

With the Revolution crushed, would he return to his own far better position in Kiev and build his large transports again?
 

marathag

Banned
"Reputable historians" make no such estimate, 20 million is an outlier and 10 million vastly more plausible.
Robert Conquest was a reputable historian and he gave 14.5M for just Uncle Joe's Collectivization period that includes what he did to the Ukraine
and Kazakhstan for man made famines.
That leaves out the Gulags, Purges and most of the other forced migrations/deportations
 
Can people please stop with the “command economy” bullshit?

the Soviet Union had a wage labour commodity economy with banks, lines of credit, rates of profit and Soviet corporations had local management making decisions to maximise profit.

At the investment bank level the plan coordinated which sectors would receive investment and had broad plans for output.

Alongside this the party acted as an audit system to prevent undesired or excessive corruption. And to pay graft to the feted pet industries where quality was mandatory (post 1945 military production for example.)

Dealing with the Soviet Union through a lens of “command economy” is a great way to demonstrate ignorance regarding Soviet economic history.
 
Robert Conquest was a reputable historian and he gave 14.5M for just Uncle Joe's Collectivization period that includes what he did to the Ukraine
and Kazakhstan for man made famines.
That leaves out the Gulags, Purges and most of the other forced migrations/deportations
And yet many historians have disputed the figures in The Great Terror based on later, and better, data sources. Conquest was hardly ideologically neutral in his views.
 
Yeah, the only thing that the Whites had in common were that they weren't Bolsheviks. The Whites were a polyglot group (which is part of what hurt them, the Bolsheviks were FAR more unified) consisting of everything from non-Bolshevik Socialists to Tsarists. Soviet propaganda over the decades painted them as all Tsarists which has stuck over the decades.
Yes, even moreso than the Reds whoever comes out on top if the Whites win is a dice roll. It could have been relatively good, it could have been objectively good (think indifferent-to-ethnicity technocrat who copies Bismark and/or Ford in keeping Commie ideals from gaining popularity). It could have been bad (notes the main White military leaders). it could have been... (glances at Sternberg) Really F***ing Bad.

On balance, odds are anyone who the Bolsheviks spoke for and/or rose against Russian rule are going to have problems (Jews especially, but everyone outside of the right sort of Orthodox East Slav would likely be under suspision by many of the probable rulers). This will change the nature of the 'Russian' Emigre communities completely out of recognition.
 
Can people please stop with the “command economy” bullshit?

the Soviet Union had a wage labour commodity economy with banks, lines of credit, rates of profit and Soviet corporations had local management making decisions to maximise profit.

At the investment bank level the plan coordinated which sectors would receive investment and had broad plans for output.

Alongside this the party acted as an audit system to prevent undesired or excessive corruption. And to pay graft to the feted pet industries where quality was mandatory (post 1945 military production for example.)

Dealing with the Soviet Union through a lens of “command economy” is a great way to demonstrate ignorance regarding Soviet economic history.

OTOH it is certainly possible that both points of view are right. There was a "command economy" of sorts (in part because of the technocrats and engineers from the Czarist era who were allowed to be let loose until Stalin's purges, after which the central planners realized that things were getting out of control so fast that the economy fell apart) which existed alongside a "wage labor commodity economy" (because something was needed to help finance the system, even with propaganda BS that it was all for the naród which one could easily see through). You see elements of both in action when talking (in Chat) about modern Belarus, for example, except AFAIK there is nothing like Gosplan and the five-year plans. In Marxist terminology, the type of economy the Soviet Union had tended to be controversially known as the Asiatic mode of production, and which in Russian historiography some, like Andrei Grinëv, call "politarism" (from the Greek πολιτεία). According to Grinëv and his circle, politarism is a stage all societies go through at some point which requires the heavy dominance of the state in all affairs (hence the name), especially in ownership of the economic structures and hence the functioning of society. Eventually, societies will discard this politarist stage and move onto other forms of organization, but Russia had a peculiar form of politarism which persisted under the Tsars and into the Soviet Union which was intertwined with the functioning of the state itself. (This paper by Grinëv himself provides some overview of the politarist thesis as it applies to Russia, as is another paper of his regarding whether the Soviet Union really was socialist as its supporters claimed, while this non-Grinëv paper provides a critical investigation in the politarist concept and how it relates to post-Soviet Russian historiography as a whole.)

Since part of Grinëv's thesis is that Russia has never really moved out of its politarist stage - only changed the guise it presents itself as, hence the observation among non-Russians that all the Soviet Union had been was essentially neo-Tsarism in Marxist clothing - and that every time it has a choice to move out of it, Russia basically clung onto it more, in a White Russia the theory holds that some form of a state-centered economy would remain. I would agree that whoever takes charge would be horrific and would lead Russia down a path which would be a combination of KMT-era China and Zaïre under Mobutu, but key to the survival of any régime is whether it has control over the state itself, by which case it would also manage the economy and repress its population, and hence warlordism would mean a loss of control over the key levers of making the Russian state function. A White Russia that gains total control over the government, even without the Czar, would be more of the same as if the Czar had not abdicated; it would take a miracle on the level of the Mexican Revolution to get Russia into a pattern more familiar to Europeans and Latin Americans (which Marxists would still call "bourgeois democracy") and avoid historical patterns to get the more optimistic scenarios of those who want a democratic White Russia (and in this case have the Mensheviks and the SRs take charge). Otherwise, on top of what everyone else has said, a White Russia would be more of a reversion to type, and as incompetent as they were the Okhrana would be as important to the functioning of a White Russia as the Cheka/OGPU/NKVD/MGB/KGB was IOTL to the Soviet Union.
 
1. Birth rates fall because the people who would have done the birthing or creating have been killed. At least in the USSR in the 20s and 30s.
2. From 1948 to 1982 some 500 000 people were allowed to leave the USSR. I doubt that the number for 1927 -1937 is half of that.

Well I can calculate how much of that was due to emigration - between 0.1 and 2% of the 1927-1937 population loss. This leaves us just with birth rates.
This logic is like saying that because the US population increased by 16 percent between 1920 and 1930, the current population should be about five hundred million people and any less is because of a genocide.

To others in this thread... maybe cool down on the defense of Pinochet?
 
Folks I cannot wrap my mind around this. We are talking the worst mass murderer in history until 1941 who sponsored two other and the defense is industrialization. Ulyanowsk I perfectly know that‘s why I chose this example. Russia would have industrialized with or without Stalin but with a couple million (hey do you realize this we are talking millions of people) people less killed.

Defending Stalin with industrialization is exactly like defending Hitler with Autobahnen.

Stalin was one of the most horrible human beings to ever have grasped power - a monster and a top one of those. But without said industrialization the state he ruled likely wouldnt have been able to defeat an even worse monster - Hitler. The defense is thus: Even if red Russia is worse than white Russia (which is not at all evident looking at the debate it generated) a white Russia could lead to either nazi Victory or nazism only ended by nuking half of Europe and thus red Russia is in any case preferable.

The "Russia would have industrialized without Stalin" part of your statement is also wrong. Communism is supposedly based on the workers - meaning they have beside an economic also an ideological and political reason to turn as much of the populace as possible in to workers. That means industrialization seemed the perfect way to go in every sense. A white Russia too will continue to industrialize and looking at pre-WWI numbers likely on an impressive scale. But for the white leaders and especially those on the right the workers are the enemy - representing socialism and communism. They want a better economy but they dont want a too strong sozialist and communist movement. They believe (in Russia's case wrongly) that they can rely on the peasentry and its conservativism and religiousness. Or at least believed this before the war but maybe the revolutions opened a few eyes.
The end result is the same: a white Russia will never pursue industrialization as single mindedly as OTL red Russia did.
 
Why assume there would be a Barbarossa against the Whites? Hard to see the Nazis rise to power in a world without Judeobolshevism.

edit: and even if they did, they'd just be squeezed out of existence between Russia and France (because they'd be cooperating without the whole communism thing).
 
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ferdi254

Banned
I still wonder how people always shout Barbarossa without giving a thought to the simple fact that without all the help Stalin first gave to Weimar in terms of military, his commands to the KPD to destroy the Weimar Republic and then the collaboration with Hitler that there would never have been a Barbarossa (even if there had been a Hitler in the first place).

And anybody who claims a white Russia could have been worse and argues that in Red Russia religion had freedom, shows clearly that facts do not really matter in his opinion.
Btw did you know that according to the laws the state was not allowed to read the letters in the GDR?
 
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