I know that this ticket would lead to an even worse defeat for the GOP than OTL, but what if the Republican nominee Senator John McCain of Arizona selected Congresswoman Michele Bachmann of Minnesota as his vice presidential nominee, instead of OTL's Alaska Governor Sarah Palin? Bachmann is even less experienced than Palin, but to the right of her. What influence would Michele Bachmann have over the Tea Party wave of the 2010 Midterms? Would this help Bachmann's candidacy in 2012, or would it hurt her even worse?
WI: McCain-Bachmann in 2008
- Thread starter Montgomerie Ward
- Start date
This might actually help Palin's political career out in the long term. She'd avoid becoming an embarassment on the 2008 campaign trail and wouldn't be as deeply scrutinized. She might've stayed governor of Alaska until the end of her term. I could see this Palin being a presidential candidate in 2012 and/or 2016 and she might be viable.
It'd hurt the GOP down-ballot, and may well be enough to flip the fairly close Senate race in Kentucky, and maybe Georgia, though the run-off was a wash for the GOP so who knows.
You might also see the Dems hold on in Kansas's 2nd, Louisiana's 2nd and 6th (Less likely for the 6th), and in Texas's 22nd. I'm aware there might be a few other down-ballot races that might swing Dem, but it's been awhile since I've run down the list of results.
As for effect on the Tea party? Basically nil. That was more a reaction to Obama and the Financial Crisis, than driven by the selection of Palin.
You might also see the Dems hold on in Kansas's 2nd, Louisiana's 2nd and 6th (Less likely for the 6th), and in Texas's 22nd. I'm aware there might be a few other down-ballot races that might swing Dem, but it's been awhile since I've run down the list of results.
As for effect on the Tea party? Basically nil. That was more a reaction to Obama and the Financial Crisis, than driven by the selection of Palin.
Her career could be longer— maybe she wins re-election, then runs for Senate in 2014, say— but it would be less fruitful; without the attention that being the vice-presidential nominee brought, it's unlikely that Palin would have the national profile or connections to mount a serious bid for the presidency at all. Alaska is just not a great place to launch a national career.
Palin was apparently chosen because she was seen as being in McCain's image. Somewhat 'mavericky' and possibly having some cross-party appeal. As often happens (in all fields, not just politics) becoming a national celebrity seemed to change her, mostly for the worst.
Her actual campaign work was fine. Most of her crazy reputation is post election.
A better question is...how will McCain get over the roadblock that is the September 15 2008 crash?
That made any republican, even a Lincoln/ Ike ticket, unelectable.
A better question is...how will McCain get over the roadblock that is the September 15 2008 crash?
That made any republican, even a Lincoln/ Ike ticket, unelectable.
I actually disagree. I think post-2008 election, the media and conservative bloggers etc will be looking for an attractive candidate who they think can excite the base enough to beat Obama. It isn't going to be Romney or Huckabee or Santorum. I think you'd see Palin on a number of lists about who to watch, etc. and she'd start taking national interviews, etc.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/steve-bannons-first-pick-for-president-214482
But that article talks about how Palin caught the eye of Bannon et al in 2011— ie, after being McCain's running mate increased her profile, and after she had spent years self-promoting. In a world where McCain picks Bachmann instead, it's likely that Bachmann becomes the darling of the movement conservatives instead, while Palin quietly toils away in Alaska. It's certainly possible for Palin to mount a bid for the presidency, but she would be doing it as a dark horse.