Improve the Singapore Strategy

[Dorknought]

Its very similar to one response I saw when it was suggested that if a rotating CAP had been operating above force Z then the Japanese would simply have escorted the bombers with Zeros - again the problem with this answer is that OTL they did not although they must have appreciated that there was a possibility of the British commonwealth air forces doing just this - yet OTL they still sent their somewhat fragile Rikkos out in groups of 9 to 18 aircraft without escorts!

The RN had done studies in the early 30's that set AA policy and equipment for the next decade. Aircover was key in that it forced attacking aircraft into tight formations where AA fire may be more effective. If fighters had been present over Force Z then it may have ended up more like the Channel Dash where fighters decimated the torpedo bomber's attack.

Managing The Aerial Threat: Provisions for anti-aircraft warfare during the 1930s, Philip Pugh

 

[MatthewB]

You have Exter and Perth and 4 DD heading to DEI, you have Houston, Boise( with radar), Marbelhead, and 6 DD heading for DEi from the southern Phillipines. What might have happened if Phillip's had pulled all the RN ships and worked with the Asiatic fleet in thecDzeI.

I would have ordered Phillips to Ceylon until he had carrier support.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Even if it was only little Hermes with a couple of flights of Wildcats and a flight of Swordfish for scouting.

 

[Mr Carrot]

Yardarm particularly low this morning eh?

I've spent three months in Singapore on business trying to not get arrested on Orchard Road so forgive me!

The view on the ground from the old and bold (or at least those represented in Temasek Geo political wing) is the Singapore Defence Forces who regularly wargame the WW2 scenario is that they've yet to come up with a way for the Japanese to win the city battle before their supplies run out.

This is very much an almost Sealion affair from their perspective.

Kicking myself I hadn't read this thread before I left - I could have asked about the Malay island potential.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Japanese staff officers thought Percival was going to ask for their surrender, because they were just about out of food and ammunition.

 

[MatthewB]

Even if it was only little Hermes with a couple of flights of Wildcats and a flight of Swordfish for scouting.

No. Hermes isn’t enough. Indomitable was off Sumatra in late January 1942 ferrying Hurricanes. And we’re too early for Martlets. So it’s Fulmars I’m afraid.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Audacity operated Martlets from July 1941. I agree Hermes isn't enough, but she's better than nothing and could at least provide a cap.

 

[Zheng He]

The problem is with carriers is they were not ready at the time. Hermes was wrapping up a refit in Durban that lasted until late December/early January. Indomitable was in the other Indies (that's the West Indies ) in November and even if she doesn't run aground off Jamaica on 3 November, I doubt she could get to Singapore on time for the start of the war. Illustrious was also in the West Indies working up following repairs in Norfolk, VA and Formidable was just winding up her refit at Uncle Sam's Carrier Repair Resort and Spa.

 

[Mr Carrot]

Japanese staff officers thought Percival was going to ask for their surrender, because they were just about out of food and ammunition.

The joke from the staff officers I was chatting to is that there was more ammunition for the 20bores for the ladies at raffles in the gun room than the Japanese had left. Obviously Percival had no idea but literally more agressive patrols in the depth defensive works/fortifications would have appraised him.

Before this trip I had always felt like he had somehow been given a partially bad rap, now I'm convinced he had some form of nervous breakdown and he simply forgot his most basic lessons of soldiering.

 

[Zheng He]

WRT the naval issues, we hashed a lot of this out on this thread a couple of years ago:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-the-admiraltys-fleet-at-singapore.385068/

 

[Zheng He]

The joke from the staff officers I was chatting to is that there was more ammunition for the 20bores for the ladies at raffles in the gun room than the Japanese had left. Obviously Percival had no idea but literally agressive patrols from the defensive works/fortifications would have appraised him.

Before this trip I had always felt like he had somehow been given a partially bad rap, now I'm convinced he had some form of nervous breakdown and he simply forgot his most basic lessons of soldiering.

So what happens if Percival doesn't surrender? He tells Yamashita to suck it and then settles in for a siege?

 

[Mr Carrot]

So what happens if Percival doesn't surrender? He tells Yamashita to suck it and then settles in for a siege?

He launches a robust assault to reclaim the reservoirs with his light armoured assets. Order of the day 1 then dominos from there.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

And prays Yamashita doesn't blow the reservoirs and pull back into Malaya. In reality the British only had to delay the Japanese advance a little more and they'd never have reached Singapore.

 

[HJ Tulp]

The view on the ground from the old and bold (or at least those represented in Temasek Geo political wing) is the Singapore Defence Forces who regularly wargame the WW2 scenario is that they've yet to come up with a way for the Japanese to win the city battle before their supplies run out.

Japanese staff officers thought Percival was going to ask for their surrender, because they were just about out of food and ammunition.

The joke from the staff officers I was chatting to is that there was more ammunition for the 20bores for the ladies at raffles in the gun room than the Japanese had left. Obviously Percival had no idea but literally more agressive patrols in the depth defensive works/fortifications would have appraised him.

He launches a robust assault to reclaim the reservoirs with his light armoured assets. Order of the day 1 then dominos from there.

And prays Yamashita doesn't blow the reservoirs and pull back into Malaya. In reality the British only had to delay the Japanese advance a little more and they'd never have reached Singapore.

I've always been a bit sceptical about this idea. The Japanese advance was ahead of schedule, meaning they had fought for a shorter period than was planned for. Do I believe they were low on supplies? Sure, considering the speed of the advance they could have easily outrun their supplylines. Does it mean that they were on the brink of surrender? I very much doubt that. What's stopping the IJA from blowing up the reservoirs (as @Peg Leg Pom suggests), dig in and wait for their supply to catch up? Meanwhile air raids soften up Singapore for the next assault.

 

[Mr Carrot]

Well the answer lies between actively engaging the enemy with all possible agrression and surrender.

Not cocking up every element of the counter attack on the 10/11th and committing all possible forces would have made a decent fist of it.

 

[hipper]

I’m referring to whom came to Australia’s aid once the shooting started. It wasn’t Britain.

None of the Wallies helped to keep the region safe. The US was provoking Japan, while Britain and France did nothing to deter Japan. IMO, only the Dutch handled their pre-war relations as best they could, selling oil until embargos forced them to stop while also putting significant military assets in the DEI.

you Don't think POW and repulse in 1941 were significant military assets?

you Don't think three Aircraft Carriers and 6 Battleships in 1942 were significant military assets!

 

[hipper]

No, the problem is that the forces needed to defend Malaya were committed elsewhere. Sensibly, too, as Malaya was a strategic backwater for almost all of 1941.

If the Japanese get to Singapore it's over. Shore batteries are a waste of money.

well they stop direct invasions done on a small scale so perhaps not useless

 

[HJ Tulp]

Well the answer lies between actively engaging the enemy with all possible agrression and surrender.

Not cocking up every element of the counter attack on the 10/11th and committing all possible forces would have made a decent fist of it.

Oh I can certainly see why immediate surrender was not necessary. I just doubt that victory was in the grasp. 'All possible forces' what was that exactly? There were 85,000 Commonwealth forces in Singapore but how many of those constituted rear-area troops? How many of those were combat ineffective after the brutal Malayan campaign?

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

I would have ordered Phillips to Ceylon until he had carrier support.

IIRC that is exactly what the Admiralty wanted to do. That is assemble the Eastern Fleet at Ceylon and then move it to Singapore. However, Churchill told them to send Prince of Wales and Repulse to Singapore.

 

[Zheng He]

IIRC that is exactly what the Admiralty wanted to do. That is assemble the Eastern Fleet at Ceylon and then move it to Singapore. However, Churchill told them to send Prince of Wales and Repulse to Singapore.

And as tensions are rising in early December you quietly order one of the big ships back to Ceylon to escort a convoy and send the other one on a morale building port call to Fremantle or something like that...