AHC: A More Secular Middle East

kernals12

Banned
The Shah's dictatorial tendencies alienated the Iranian people to a degree that I doubt a continued Mossadegh-style democracy would, thus making the parallel insufficient.
There was no "Mossadegh-style democracy", he was in the process of dissolving Iran's parliament and giving himself dictatorial powers when the coup happened. The events in Iran in 1953 are very different than the America-bashing narrative would have you believe.
 

longsword14

Banned
There was no "Mossadegh-style democracy", he was in the process of dissolving Iran's parliament and giving himself dictatorial powers when the coup happened. The events in Iran in 1953 are very different than the America-bashing narrative would have you believe.
Most likely outcome : PM Mossadegh is taken down by the mob and the mullahs.
 
There was no "Mossadegh-style democracy", he was in the process of dissolving Iran's parliament and giving himself dictatorial powers when the coup happened. The events in Iran in 1953 are very different than the America-bashing narrative would have you believe.
Yep. Iranian democracy died on May 20, 1952 when Mossadegh ordered the counting of votes in the parliamentary election to be stopped because his party had a majority but would not keep that majority if the vote count continued. There was hope for Iranian democracy to return in January-November 1979, but the hostage crisis ensured democracy would stay dead in Iran for quite a bit longer.
 
The Shah's dictatorial tendencies alienated the Iranian people to a degree that I doubt a continued Mossadegh-style democracy would, thus making the parallel insufficient.

Mossadegh wasn't as democratic as you believe, he dissolved parliament and ruled by decree. Indeed, by the time of the coup, it appears that many Iranians had turned against Mossadegh, some considering him too liberal and others considering him too authoritarian, read https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/1953-iranian-coup-detat-operation-ajax-fails.362908/.
 
Piggybacking off another thread, how about if Nasser gets assassinated by a member of the Muslim Brotherhood in 1954? It would severely damage both islamism and pan-arabism.
Ooh, that's an interesting idea. It crushes Arab fascism, so we don't get Saddam, Assad, Gaddafi, etc., AND it discredits Islamism. That seems like a win-win in my opinion.
 
how about if Nasser gets assassinated by a member of the Muslim Brotherhood in 1954?
He gets replaced by someone else in the ruling Egyptian military and business goes on. Question how does this effect the Suez crisis

It would severely damage both islamism and pan-arabism.
How as Pan-Arabism is already popular and both Pan-Arabism and Islamism is not a united ideology. Nasser is also not as popular as in his post-Suez years nor has his memory stopped the rise of Islamism in the modern day Arab world and the popularity of the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt . You have only at best delayed the rise of Pan-Arabism and Arab Nationalism by a few years.
 

kernals12

Banned
He gets replaced by someone else in the ruling Egyptian military and business goes on. Question how does this effect the Suez crisis


How as Pan-Arabism is already popular and both Pan-Arabism and Islamism is not a united ideology. Nasser is also not as popular as in his post-Suez years nor has his memory stopped the rise of Islamism in the modern day Arab world and the popularity of the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt . You have only at best delayed the rise of Pan-Arabism and Arab Nationalism by a few years.
Nasser's charisma and popularity outside Egypt were what propped up Pan-Arabism. It died as a serious political movement after his death.
 
Nasser's charisma and popularity outside Egypt were what propped up Pan-Arabism.
Ba'ath party was already popular Syria while other Pan-Arab nationalists were popular in Iraq. Iraqi monarchy was unpopular and Syria's political system was unstable. The Egyptian leadership were Arab nationalists by this time so replacing Nasser with another Arab Nationalist is not a problem. Egypt being the most populated Arab state is the natural leader of the Arab world.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Socialist_Ba'ath_Party_–_Syria_Region#Founding_and_early_years:_1947–1963
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/14_July_Revolution#Political_grievances
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_Revolutionary_Command_Council#Characteristics

It died as a serious political movement after his death.
Yet Dictatorships such Saddam's Iraq,Assad's Syria, and a number of others all claimed the ideology and tried to prominent it to varying levels.
 

kernals12

Banned
id argue the reactionary fanaticists who we ended up with are far worse. im sure most people on this forum would prefer a moderate social democracy of some kind, or atleast a capitalist oligarchy.
Cold War social democrats were militantly anti-communist. Communism, with no exceptions that I can think of, brought tyranny and misery everywhere it went. It showed its colors when it dissolved the freely elected Russian constituent assembly in 1918.
 

kernals12

Banned
Ba'ath party was already popular Syria while other Pan-Arab nationalists were popular in Iraq. Iraqi monarchy was unpopular and Syria's political system was unstable. The Egyptian leadership were Arab nationalists by this time so replacing Nasser with another Arab Nationalist is not a problem. Egypt being the most populated Arab state is the natural leader of the Arab world.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Socialist_Ba'ath_Party_–_Syria_Region#Founding_and_early_years:_1947–1963
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/14_July_Revolution#Political_grievances
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_Revolutionary_Command_Council#Characteristics


Yet Dictatorships such Saddam's Iraq,Assad's Syria, and a number of others all claimed the ideology and tried to prominent it to varying levels.
Yes, there were plenty of people who held on to the dream that was so common during Nasser's time. But if he dies before the Suez crisis and all the other things that made him famous, it stands to reason that Pan-Arabism wouldn't have caught on like it did.
 

kernals12

Banned
Out of curiousity, if the 1969 Saudi coup attempt had succeeded, what would happen next? Would they want to immediately unite with the Gulf nations or Iraq? Would they find themselves endlessly bickering with Egypt for dominance over the Arab cause?
 
Cold War social democrats were militantly anti-communist. Communism, with no exceptions that I can think of, brought tyranny and misery everywhere it went. It showed its colors when it dissolved the freely elected Russian constituent assembly in 1918.
Thomas sankara in the former upper volta, now bukino faso. did nothing but good, fed the people, vaccinated them, forced everyone to respect women. killed by his best mate who sold out to the french. Thats limiting it to marxist states. i am not a marxist and make no apologies for them, but saying they are the scope of what communism is like saying absolutists are all monarchy can be or that democracy can only be liberal. i was saying centrists over communists and fascists.
 
Thomas sankara in the former upper volta, now bukino faso. did nothing but good, fed the people, vaccinated them, forced everyone to respect women. killed by his best mate who sold out to the french. Thats limiting it to marxist states. i am not a marxist and make no apologies for them, but saying they are the scope of what communism is like saying absolutists are all monarchy can be or that democracy can only be liberal. i was saying centrists over communists and fascists.
Sankara banned trade unions, labeling them "counterrevolutionary," and had their members detained and brutally tortured. He also cut off all foreign aid to the country. If you want to point to an African socialist who wasn't awful, you basically only have Leopold Senghor. The African anti-colonial leaders who weren't awful tended to be liberals like Seretse Khama or Nelson Mandela, not Marxists.
 
and any tyrrany/ misery brought on by a communist party is just a reconstruction of the misery/ tyrrany brought on by capitalist property dynamics and social relations, the party and the state suplant the capitalist class. where formerly the state was a tool of the capitalists, it is now the state itsself that acts as one mega capitalist. the party members acting as middlemanagers.
 
USSR surviving until the modern day might help. Communism seem to greatly secularize Muslims groups in most cases(communism did do some good things). Them winning in Afghanistan could eventually see the population become more secular at the cost of being a rather strict and brutal regime. Iran keeps the Shan. Iraq stays under Saddam control(Soviet Union lasting longer helps that). Him taking Kuwait somehow also helps(less Arab monarchs probably means more secular regimes. Nationalist are dictators but usually not as religious as most monarchs). The current Jordan monarch line winning out against Saudi would be big too. Jordan and otl Saudi under the Jordan royal family would be conservative but no where as bad as Saudi. They would also not be trying to spread Wahhabism everywhere. Gaddafi not coming to power helps too(that man wasn’t a radical Islamist he was just crazy somehow got power. He literally gave money and weapons to both communist, nationalist, and Islamist which makes zero sense considering the conflicts in ideology. Basically anyone who hated the west he usually supported). Could a Jordan ruled Arabia also get the United Emirates or any additional areas in the region?

Egypt could still go through it otl issues but Islamist don’t rise there if things go different elsewhere. Syria stays stable under Assad. Lebanon becomes a homeland for Christians in the Middle East(Christians in the Middle East are actual much more religious then Christians in the west but “westernizing” them might be easier since they are likely to lean towards friendly relations with Israel which means Syria is likely to hate them which means more trade/influence from the west which might lead to secularization there). Yemen goes full socialist and becomes a struggling but politically stable nation. Pakistan is kept as part of India and so is Bangladesh. Algeria stays part of France.

Israel keeps Sinai and doesn’t grant Orthodox Jews any special privileges(secular Jews often don’t like orthodox ones especially since many Orthodox Jews were against Zionism and have completely different beliefs). Let say Israel is much more “forceful” with secularization and treat Orthodox Jews more like Ethiopian Jews. Hiloni dominated Israel will honestly be more secular then the west(these Jews are often Jewish by blood but atheist or non-religious in actual belief. The Holocaust made many Jews who were not religious at all view judaism as more of a culture then religion).

A other option is a surviving Ottoman Empire but honestly I think they would likely become a very conservative regime. Think a Russian Empire but in the 2000s. It isn’t Saudi but many still think it is behind culturally.

The Middle East in these pod will likely be more like the rest of Asia culturally and politically. Economically I think the gulf countries could become more like South Korea if given more secular regimes. That oil money will bring in a lot of western influence. Under a more secular regime western culture might spread more in those countries. Could a place like the United Emirates or Gulf monarchs get overthrown by a revolt by the now non-citizen majority(people from India out number the locals in many of these kingdoms)?
 
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