DBWI: Kerensky lives?

[HIM Dogson]

In hindsight, it's easy to see the assassination of President Alexander Kerensky on January 5, 1936 as one of the greatest catastrophes in Russian history. Boris Savinkov's National Republican movement would emerge from the chaos in complete control of Russia, converting the country into a brutal totalitarian regime dedicated to restoring the place in the world Russia had lost at Brest-Litovsk. When German forces finally hoisted their flag above the Kremlin in 1946, the Savinkov regime had amassed a body count of over 20 million, to say nothing of those killed in the wars the dictator started.

That said, would Kerensky really have been such a decisive figure? Would he have been able to prevent the rise of Savinkov, had he lived? Indeed, what course would Russia have taken in history had President Kerensky had a few more years?

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

It depends who you ask, doesn't it...

So much of history has emphasised Russia's collective guilt for the crimes of Savinkov. Which is kind of understandable - a regime that did so much evil it led the Reichspakt and Internationale to join forces to put down is always going to excite such comment. So if you ask a lot of people 'WI Kerensky lived', they'd probably say that Savinkov's rise was inevitable.

Of course, the two superpowers find that an easy line to peddle, since it allows them to continue to divide Russia and not let it rise again.

 

[Von Tyrconnell]

That said, would Kerensky really have been such a decisive figure? Would he have been able to prevent the rise of Savinkov, had he lived? Indeed, what course would Russia have taken in history had President Kerensky had a few more years?

I think that some sort of nationalist dictatorship was inevitable even if Kerensky had not been assassinated, Savinkov's party was clearly on the rise in 1936 especially in the wake of the Amur Incident, after centuries of being a great power the Russian people hated the idea of suddenly becoming a backwater stripped of what they regarded as rightful Russian soil and as a result there was a strong popular demand for revanchism and a revival of Russian power. I don't think it necessarily needed to be Savinkov who took power though, one of the more moderate generals like Baron Wrangel could have won out instead of Kornilov.

In the immediate term internationally Kerensky surviving would have some interesting effects, his death and the chaos that ensued in Russia are considered to be one of the factors that caused the Black Monday crisis. It wasn't the only factor so an economic crisis like it would have probably still happened but delaying Black Monday for a few years would probably prevent the Second Belgian Revolution (its effects on German policy shouldn't be underestimated, one of the main reasons they decided to loosen their grip on their Eastern Europe satellite states was out of fear of losing Eastern Europe like they lost Flanders-Wallonia), the Second American Civil War and the Integralist victory in the 1936 Brazilian Election, all of which would have major effects on international politics. There would probably be no copycat assassination of Emiliano Zapata either unless you believe the Calles regime's story about the assassination being part of a right-wing plot to undo the Mexican Revolution.

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

but delaying Black Monday for a few years would probably prevent...the Second American Civil War

As a citizen of the Commonwealth of America, I'm not that convinced that the Second Civil War could be prevented. The capitalist excesses of the pre-Commonwealth era plus the sheer godawful racism plus a whole host of other injustices I think meant that the rise of Syndicalism here was inevitable.

Mind you, a delay in the war could have had all sorts of butterfly effects on how things shook down. I mean, Syndicalism with American Characteristics has worked out nicely for America - a democratic system, economic system that lets the workers run things but avoid centralisation - but with a delay, it might have been some godawful thing like Totalism which got to power. Which would have been awful - Canada got reconciled to joining the Commonwealth because it was a democratic system, without that...

 

[HIM Dogson]

It depends who you ask, doesn't it...

So much of history has emphasised Russia's collective guilt for the crimes of Savinkov. Which is kind of understandable - a regime that did so much evil it led the Reichspakt and Internationale to join forces to put down is always going to excite such comment. So if you ask a lot of people 'WI Kerensky lived', they'd probably say that Savinkov's rise was inevitable.

Of course, the two superpowers find that an easy line to peddle, since it allows them to continue to divide Russia and not let it rise again.

Yeah, I'm not really a fan of the whole "Russian special path" line, the whole idea that Russia is inevitably authoritarian. 200 years ago Russia, Prussia, and Austria were all equally oppressive absolute monarchies; now Germany and Danubia are democratic constitutional monarchies. Russia absolutely had a chance to resist Savinkov, I think- just look what happened in, say, Japan.

 

[Von Tyrconnell]

As a citizen of the Commonwealth of America, I'm not that convinced that the Second Civil War could be prevented. The capitalist excesses of the pre-Commonwealth era plus the sheer godawful racism plus a whole host of other injustices I think meant that the rise of Syndicalism here was inevitable.

Mind you, a delay in the war could have had all sorts of butterfly effects on how things shook down. I mean, Syndicalism with American Characteristics has worked out nicely for America - a democratic system, economic system that lets the workers run things but avoid centralisation - but with a delay, it might have been some godawful thing like Totalism which got to power. Which would have been awful - Canada got reconciled to joining the Commonwealth because it was a democratic system, without that...

It's very debatable but I don't think Jack Reed would've been able to win the 1936 Presidential election without the radicalisation caused by Black Monday and without MacArthur's coup against Reed discrediting American democratic principles there wouldn't be enough popular support for a complete overthrow of the United States.

Yeah, I'm not really a fan of the whole "Russian special path" line, the whole idea that Russia is inevitably authoritarian. 200 years ago Russia, Prussia, and Austria were all equally oppressive absolute monarchies; now Germany and Danubia are democratic constitutional monarchies. Russia absolutely had a chance to resist Savinkov, I think- just look what happened in, say, Japan.

I don't agree with the idea that Russia is inevitably authoritarian either but the analogy doesn't really hold up when you consider that Germany and Danubia (then Austria-Hungary) won the war and while Japan might've been on the losing side the Peace with Honour ensured they didn't lose much (not to mention the Japanese gains from the failed Kolchak coup and the collapse of China), there's no comparison with the sheer dismantlement and humiliation that Russia received. In a world where the Entente had won I can easily see Russia becoming a democratic constitutional monarchy but I think Russian popular resentment of Brest-Litovsk OTL was too high to avoid some sort of nationalist revanchism.

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

It's very debatable but I don't think Jack Reed would've been able to win the 1936 Presidential election without the radicalisation caused by Black Monday and without MacArthur's coup against Reed discrediting American democratic principles there wouldn't be enough popular support for a complete overthrow of the United States.

Well I think it would have happened, but then I'm biased. I certainly shudder at the idea of an America where Reed didn't win. I mean, you might have had the Family Code of 1941 butterflied away. Which paved the way for so much - by making civil marriage the only marriage, by recognising cohabitation as the legal equivalent of marriage, and by legalising homosexuality, it was a revolution in sexual rights. And it paved the way for so much more. The idea of that not happening...

OOC: That's actually an event that triggers in 1941 in HOI4...

 

[President Earl Warren]

Well i would love to live in the world where Reed lost, If not for him, the old USA across the country would of lived on instead of having only us on the West coast and in New England to carry on the light of American Principles of Free Enterprise, Democracy and Faith. As for the Russians, I have a Great grand father which served in the liberation of the Russian Far East, Anything that could of pervented that would of been great
OOC: ITTL the Pacific states and are under the Entene umbrella. other Entente states include: the French Communinty (basically a confederation of French colonies with Natives and Frenchmen both having a good say, The Dominion of India and Australia.

 

[Ferd42]

Agreed, much prefer to be part of the entente in the UK. My Grand Parents used to talk about how rubbish life was in the UoB. As for Kenersky, I am not sure that he would have been able to stop Savinkov.

 

[Von Tyrconnell]

Well i would love to live in the world where Reed lost, If not for him, the old USA across the country would of lived on instead of having only us on the West coast and in New England to carry on the light of American Principles of Free Enterprise, Democracy and Faith. As for the Russians, I have a Great grand father which served in the liberation of the Russian Far East, Anything that could of pervented that would of been great
OOC: ITTL the Pacific states and New England surrvived ITTL and are under the Entene umbrella. other Entente states include: the French Communinty (basically a confederation of French colonies with Natives and Frenchmen both having a good say) the Kingdom of Spain, the Kingdom of Italy, The Dominion of India and the Confederation of the west indies

Agreed, much prefer to be part of the entente in the UK. My Grand Parents used to talk about how rubbish life was in the UoB. As for Kenersky, I am not sure that he would have been able to stop Savinkov.

OOC: theg*ddam*hoi2fan stated that Canada was annexed by the Commonwealth of America, I find a surviving New England/Entente or a restored UK unlikely.

 

[President Earl Warren]

Oh missed that,will retract the Entente in Canada part, instead Ill have them be around in India and Australia.

 

[President Earl Warren]

Its also Extremely lucky that the Entente forces pushing through Afganhstan after the war managed to get the Russian Nuclear plans, else the Syndies may of tried to gobble us up like they did Canada.

 

[HIM Dogson]

Well i would love to live in the world where Reed lost, If not for him, the old USA across the country would of lived on instead of having only us on the West coast and in New England to carry on the light of American Principles of Free Enterprise, Democracy and Faith. As for the Russians, I have a Great grand father which served in the liberation of the Russian Far East, Anything that could of pervented that would of been great
OOC: ITTL the Pacific states and are under the Entene umbrella. other Entente states include: the French Communinty (basically a confederation of French colonies with Natives and Frenchmen both having a good say, The Dominion of India and Australia.

I don't think it's fair to blame Reed completely, especially not when it was MacArthur who started it with his coup. I mean, scholarship of the Second Civil War has moved on since the Pipes days.

So your granddad was one of the first to discover the Kagorda system? The IJA is criticized for its summary executions of Combat Squad guards starting 1946; personally I have a very hard time blaming them. I'd do the same if I saw my people in one of those hellholes.

 

[President Earl Warren]

I don't think it's fair to blame Reed completely, especially not when it was MacArthur who started it with his coup. I mean, scholarship of the Second Civil War has moved on since the Pipes days.

I have no love of Macarthuer, it was his Military coup which caused us to set up our own legitimate goverment here in the West, however if Reed and his band of radicals had not tried to uproot American society as soon as they took office and planned to use blatantly dictatorial and destructive methods (like Packing the supreme court and using Executive orders to override the Congress and States) would not of given Macarthuer an excuse to do his coup. Both sides were bad in that fight.

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

Its also Extremely lucky that the Entente forces pushing through Afganhstan after the war managed to get the Russian Nuclear plans, else the Syndies may of tried to gobble us up like they did Canada.

Agreed, much prefer to be part of the entente in the UK. My Grand Parents used to talk about how rubbish life was in the UoB. As for Kenersky, I am not sure that he would have been able to stop Savinkov.

OOC: The UoB is still going - I stated the main superpowers were the Internationale and the Reichspakt

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

I have no love of Macarthuer, it was his Military coup which caused us to set up our own legitimate goverment here in the West, however if Reed and his band of radicals had not tried to uproot American society as soon as they took office and planned to use blatantly dictatorial and destructive methods (like Packing the supreme court and using Executive orders to override the Congress and States) would not of given Macarthuer an excuse to do his coup. Both sides were bad in that fight.

The Commonwealth has worked out just fine. Together with the Internationale as a whole we’re the dominant military and economic superpower on the planet, with only the Germans able to match us. We’re also a far freer society than that sad remnant on the Pacific - as I mentioned earlier, the Family Code of 1941 opened up the path for a whole raft of even better legislation. I mean, here, gender, racial and LGBT rights are the most advanced on the planet - the UoB, France and Spain caught up quickly though Compare it to the Pacific, where being gay is still classified as a mental disorder (and illegal in a few states )

 

[President Earl Warren]

OOC: The UoB is still going - I stated the main superpowers were the Internationale and the Reichspakt

OOC: ITTL, the Entene is essentially in alliance with the Germans.

 

[President Earl Warren]

The Commonwealth has worked out just fine. Together with the Internationale as a whole we’re the dominant military and economic superpower on the planet, with only the Germans able to match us. We’re also a far freer society than that sad remnant on the Pacific - as I mentioned earlier, the Family Code of 1941 opened up the path for a whole raft of even better legislation. I mean, here, gender, racial and LGBT rights are the most advanced on the planet - the UoB, France and Spain caught up quickly though Compare it to the Pacific, where being gay is still classified as a mental disorder (and illegal in a few states )

We are not some Sad pitful remant, We are the 4th largest economy in the world, living standerds are among the highest only outranked by the germans and the Japanese and our education system is top notch. Compare that to you,with a 60 percent divorce rate, a Living standerd far below that of any capitalist state and a goverment which stifles free expression and Religon, I feel far better living in a Free Nation to yours.

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

We are not some Sad pitful remant, We are the 4th largest economy in the world, living standerds are among the highest only outranked by the germans and the Japanese and our education system is top notch. Compare that to you,with a 60 percent divorce rate, a Living standerd far below that of any capitalist state and a goverment which stifles free expression and Religon, I feel far better living in a Free Nation to yours.

We don’t stifle free expression at all - Freedom of Speech is enshrined in our Constitution, provided hate speech laws aren’t violated. And our standard of living is the equal of Germany - plus there’s no colossal gap between rich and poor. The unionisation of industry has ensured fair conditions and fair pay for all; everyone has free housing, schooling and healthcare...

Plus, apprenticeships and free education mean that there hasn’t become the ‘for-profit university’ thing we see in your country... I don’t still owe hundreds of thousands of dollars for education, unlike people your side of the border.

Also with religion: religions are allowed practice freely here. Again, the only bar is on hate speech, and even that’s only a problem outside a place of worship. So inside a church (ir his home( a priest can say Jews are going to Hell all he wants, no problem - it’s only if he says it to the world at large he gets fined.

OOC: Basically this is largely the truth - the Internationale is democratic and people enjoy solidly good standards of living. It’s not perfect but it’s no worse than most OTL European nations in terms of living standards and in some things is better, though has some unique issues.

 

[President Earl Warren]

OOC: Basically this is largely the truth - the Internationale is democratic and people enjoy solidly good standards of living.

OOC: yeah thats largely the point, in my mind both of our charecters live in democratic societys but we have massive misconceptions about eachother, I view your state as A hell hole of debauchery and Facism where Indivuality is stamped out, while you view mine as a evil gilded age state which opresses minorities. their are elements of truth to both views but its really not true.