A Central East
- Thread starter Lord Insane
- Start date
They would, yes. There haven't been much (directly militarily) activity in the Atlantic, since, from Germany's point of view, keeping Britain out of the war is more important then cutting the flow of resources to France.
France, too, have an interest in keeping Britain friendly, so neither side really dares to that much that could change Britain's position.
And thanks for the kind words!
1916, Peace in the East.
''The Tsar would sacrifice you all for his pride!''
-Russian Socialist agitator, 1916.
With a new, peace-desperate, government in charge of Russia, the main issue was deciding which Ally was to gain what.
Japan was relatively easy: North Sakhalin and the Russian holdings and sphere of interest in Manchuria.
Romania was to gain Bessarabia.
Sweden was to gain the Åland Islands, and Finland, including all of Kola and Karelia, was to be granted independence, with Prince Carl of Sweden, Duke of Västergötland and third son of King Oscar II, to be raised to the throne as King Kaarle I of Finland, after ceding all claims to the Swedish throne (to avoid a personal union between Finland and Sweden coming into effect), and promising to uphold the rights of the Finns and the Finnish-speaking.
While the Fennomans were not happy about getting a Swedish monarch, Karl’s promises, the fact that they were getting independence, as well as Kola and Karelia, appeased them enough for it to be accepted.
For the Ottomans, the losses of 1878 were to be reversed, Azerbaijan and the rest of Armenia were to be placed in their hands, and, more unofficially, Georgia (which was to be granted independence by the Russians) was to be in the Ottoman sphere of influence.
For the Double Monarchy, the newly-created Ukraine (including Crimea, due to the Germans practically telling the nationalists to claim the area or shut up, as to allow it to be plausibly removed from the Russians) was to be in their sphere of influence, and Poland was to be annexed, becoming a Third Monarchy of the to-be Triple Monarchy. Galizien-Lodomerien was to be given to Poland in exchange for accepting this. While this was somewhat unpalatable to the Germans and Hungarians, it was seen as a better option to keeping the minorities in check then making a Slavic constituent monarchy in the south (at least, from the Hungarians’ point of view), as it would appease the Poles, and make most of the Ukrainians their problem.
As for Germany, Lithuania and Belarus was to be in their sphere of influence, and the United Baltic Duchy [1] was to be annexed directly into the Empire (this had been opposed by large portions of the Reichstag, but through backdoor deals and various tricks, it was voted through), though with a great deal of autonomy. Adolf Friedrich of Mecklenburg-Schwerin was proclaimed by the Regency Council of the Vereinigtes Baltisches Herzogtum, though he would not ascend to the throne until the end of the War, with the appointed Council continuing to operate until that time.
[1] Estonia and Latvia. It should be noted that though it is dominated by Baltic Germans, the Estonians and Latvians are not completely non-influential in the Duchy.
''The Tsar would sacrifice you all for his pride!''
-Russian Socialist agitator, 1916.
With a new, peace-desperate, government in charge of Russia, the main issue was deciding which Ally was to gain what.
Japan was relatively easy: North Sakhalin and the Russian holdings and sphere of interest in Manchuria.
Romania was to gain Bessarabia.
Sweden was to gain the Åland Islands, and Finland, including all of Kola and Karelia, was to be granted independence, with Prince Carl of Sweden, Duke of Västergötland and third son of King Oscar II, to be raised to the throne as King Kaarle I of Finland, after ceding all claims to the Swedish throne (to avoid a personal union between Finland and Sweden coming into effect), and promising to uphold the rights of the Finns and the Finnish-speaking.
While the Fennomans were not happy about getting a Swedish monarch, Karl’s promises, the fact that they were getting independence, as well as Kola and Karelia, appeased them enough for it to be accepted.
For the Ottomans, the losses of 1878 were to be reversed, Azerbaijan and the rest of Armenia were to be placed in their hands, and, more unofficially, Georgia (which was to be granted independence by the Russians) was to be in the Ottoman sphere of influence.
For the Double Monarchy, the newly-created Ukraine (including Crimea, due to the Germans practically telling the nationalists to claim the area or shut up, as to allow it to be plausibly removed from the Russians) was to be in their sphere of influence, and Poland was to be annexed, becoming a Third Monarchy of the to-be Triple Monarchy. Galizien-Lodomerien was to be given to Poland in exchange for accepting this. While this was somewhat unpalatable to the Germans and Hungarians, it was seen as a better option to keeping the minorities in check then making a Slavic constituent monarchy in the south (at least, from the Hungarians’ point of view), as it would appease the Poles, and make most of the Ukrainians their problem.
As for Germany, Lithuania and Belarus was to be in their sphere of influence, and the United Baltic Duchy [1] was to be annexed directly into the Empire (this had been opposed by large portions of the Reichstag, but through backdoor deals and various tricks, it was voted through), though with a great deal of autonomy. Adolf Friedrich of Mecklenburg-Schwerin was proclaimed by the Regency Council of the Vereinigtes Baltisches Herzogtum, though he would not ascend to the throne until the end of the War, with the appointed Council continuing to operate until that time.
[1] Estonia and Latvia. It should be noted that though it is dominated by Baltic Germans, the Estonians and Latvians are not completely non-influential in the Duchy.
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Well, they did send most of their military east in TTL, and they got the aid of Romania, Sweden and Japan in fighting the Russians, so yes, they did better.
Well, the 'gain', as it is, is the Baltic Germans. It isn't popular, in the Reichstag or abroad, but since when did nationalists have to be sensible (I did note that it took backdoor deals and various tricks to get it through the Reichstag, and, there is that little fact that it was seriously considered in OTL [no decision was really made, the end of the war aborted the matter]. What I didn't mention is that the VBH actually asked to become a part of the Empire [with considerable autonomy], which added the problem of not recognising that, while still recognising the VBH, to the Government's problems)?
Great timeline, by the way. We need more alternate Great Wars
It seems to me that the rewards for Germany vis a vis Austria-Hungary are a bit smaller than I would have expected, at least on the eastern front. The Baltics and Belarus are not really comprable to Poland and the Ukraine.
It seems to me that the rewards for Germany vis a vis Austria-Hungary are a bit smaller than I would have expected, at least on the eastern front. The Baltics and Belarus are not really comprable to Poland and the Ukraine.
Thanks for the kind words!
As for the issue you raised... Well, Lithuania is in the German sphere, too. The two main reasons why Germany gave so much to Austria-Hungary(-Poland) is that the Triple Monarchy won't gain anything from the Fall of France and that AH is in a better state then OTL (both because Russia's fall came earlier, and because they have been in an overall better state then OTL, what with Italy being a friendly and Serbia falling earlier).
Still, there are elements of Germany looking to the future, and wondering about the Triple Monarchy's ability to survive, and what can be done to maximise the gain when and if it falls... There is also a few people worried about Imperial Overstretch for Germany if they try to keep it all in their sphere of influence.
Are you then saying that Germany is thinking that a) A-H will crumble shortly after the end of the war, win or lose, and b) all of (the desirable portions of) A-H's gains in the east will automatically fall to Germany? Seems like a combination of cynicism and wishful thinking to me; I'd consider it more likely (especially given Wilhelm II's personality) that he'd just attempt to hive off the choicest bits of the eastern conquests directly.
But I am looking forward to the war in the west...
Not necessarily shortly after the end of the war, but there are people in somewhat high positions in Germany believing AHP is doomed, in the long run. This is an era of High Nationalism, after all, and the Triple Monarchy is, well, stuffed with nationalities.
The German leadership is, uhm, sane enough to realise that attempting to grab all of it is stupid. Now, they would have liked Ukraine, but that's on the other side of Poland. And Poland was given to AH because the Double Monarchy was viewed slightly better then Germany in Poland. And, this way, the Polish nationalists can be somewhat sated with something approaching independence, plus gaining Galizien, and having a great deal of influence over a major power (as the Triple Monarchy still is).
If Poland was made into a German puppet, then it would only be sort-off independence they would have to be sated with.
It isn't just Wilhem II making policy, after all.
1916, The Late Entries.
''Revanchism had, for the moment, died in the trenches of Elsass and the streets of Paris.''
-Alexander Lucas, historian, 1973.
With Russia bowing out of the War, and suffering increased disorder as the country remained uncertain just how radical the Revolution was, Yuan Shikai, President of the Republic of China [1], realised that China, despite the internal instability it was facing [2], was in a position to enter the war at little risk. While French Indochina was still a threat, they had been cut of from France and the Entente for more then a year, and the French forces there were in no position to go on an offensive.
With this in mind, China declared war on France on the 21st of April, and moved to occupy the French (and Russian, but on the motivation of ‘restoring order’, not being at war with them) concession in Hankou.
On the other side of the world, the Plan that, it was hoped, would end the War was about to go in effect.
On the 9th of May, a co-ordinated offensive by German, Dutch and Belgian forces, supported by Austro-Hungarian expeditionary forces, and strengthened by the arrival of reinforcements from the East begun, moving for Paris via Bastogne, which was still under French occupation.
By the 19th of May, the Allies were pushing out of Belgium, and into France, and by the 7th of June, one day before Yuan Shikai died [3], Paris was reached.
It took a week of fighting to take the city, and the French government had moved to Bordeaux towards the beginning of the war, but it was, nonetheless, a blow to French morale, as was the fall of Tananarive to German-Dutch forces on the 16th of June, and the fall of Hanoi to German-Dutch forces (aided by being able to land in southern China and then march south) on the 17th of June.
As France took what little forces guarded the Spanish frontier to throw against the Allies, in an attempt to stop the advance, Spain’s government, though painfully aware of the Kingdom’s military weakness, saw a chance, and took it.
On the 30th of June, Spain entered the Great War as a member of the Allies, convinced by France's weakness and Germany's promises of colonial gains.
[1] He didn’t declare himself emperor in TTL.
[2] Compared to OTL, China is far more calm, given that the National Protection War never occurred, and isn't occuring (see above).
[3] That is, two days after OTL.
''Revanchism had, for the moment, died in the trenches of Elsass and the streets of Paris.''
-Alexander Lucas, historian, 1973.
With Russia bowing out of the War, and suffering increased disorder as the country remained uncertain just how radical the Revolution was, Yuan Shikai, President of the Republic of China [1], realised that China, despite the internal instability it was facing [2], was in a position to enter the war at little risk. While French Indochina was still a threat, they had been cut of from France and the Entente for more then a year, and the French forces there were in no position to go on an offensive.
With this in mind, China declared war on France on the 21st of April, and moved to occupy the French (and Russian, but on the motivation of ‘restoring order’, not being at war with them) concession in Hankou.
On the other side of the world, the Plan that, it was hoped, would end the War was about to go in effect.
On the 9th of May, a co-ordinated offensive by German, Dutch and Belgian forces, supported by Austro-Hungarian expeditionary forces, and strengthened by the arrival of reinforcements from the East begun, moving for Paris via Bastogne, which was still under French occupation.
By the 19th of May, the Allies were pushing out of Belgium, and into France, and by the 7th of June, one day before Yuan Shikai died [3], Paris was reached.
It took a week of fighting to take the city, and the French government had moved to Bordeaux towards the beginning of the war, but it was, nonetheless, a blow to French morale, as was the fall of Tananarive to German-Dutch forces on the 16th of June, and the fall of Hanoi to German-Dutch forces (aided by being able to land in southern China and then march south) on the 17th of June.
As France took what little forces guarded the Spanish frontier to throw against the Allies, in an attempt to stop the advance, Spain’s government, though painfully aware of the Kingdom’s military weakness, saw a chance, and took it.
On the 30th of June, Spain entered the Great War as a member of the Allies, convinced by France's weakness and Germany's promises of colonial gains.
[1] He didn’t declare himself emperor in TTL.
[2] Compared to OTL, China is far more calm, given that the National Protection War never occurred, and isn't occuring (see above).
[3] That is, two days after OTL.
Just some thoughts for you to consider...
The French with British backing are likely to have the ear of the Siamese if they agree to withdraw from meddling in their spheres of influence in the Siamese Realm. By offering back some of the borderlands around Vietiane and southern Laos They may even be able to get some active aid to shore up their position in Indochina, or at least make any covetous eyes think the effort not worth the gain.
Yes it means the French lose some influence in the interim, but they would be in a position to regain it in the postwar as long as they retain the bulk of Indochina. Of course they risk losing it all at the peace otherwise. either to the allied victors or to an independent state.
As to the triple monarchy of the Habsburgs. I think it is highly unlikely. Karl is well aware of the shortcomings and difficulties the many nationalities of his Empire in the prewar boundaries present. He is not an idiot bound to compound them by adding yet more Slavs to the Ethnic mix of his Empire. Slavs would end up in the majority in that case.
Its far more likely that you have Habsburg Satellite Kingdoms instead. Karl already has an established male line to inherit if need be, but his brother Maximilian Eugene could use his own throne and secure Habsburg influence somewhere ( I suggest Ukraine). Independent but under a Habsburg monarch likely to follow a A-H line in European affairs.
As to Poland I was thinking (1) Franz Salvador who is married to Franz Jozef's youngest daughter Marie-Valerie. Make them co-rulers of the resurrected Polish Kingdom. It also provides ample impetus for joining Galizien-Lodomeria to Russian Poland. It would give you three Hapsburg Kingdoms in Central East Europe decended most directly through the male Habsburg line (From Leopold II). Of course for variety and to perhaps gain some measure of influence for Germany..there is (2) Franz Josef's eldest daughter Gisela married to Leopold Wittelsbach ( of Bavaria) Again co-rulers but with a provision that it fall to Franz Salvador and Marie-Valerie should they have no issue. That would be my favoured as it gives at least some nominal influence to Germany in Poland even if indirectly. Of course there is always the longshot..(3) the next female would be Elizabeth Amalia. Half sister to Karl's father Otto. Aloys of Liechtenstein, not much more neutral than that.
Surrendering the independence of the Principality to Karl for the much larger domain of Poland. Perhaps it would become a duchy within A-H under a junior line of Liechtenstein. But as I said...that would be a long shot.
A triple monarchy in this circumstance would be much more manageble less slavs vying for influence with the Germans and Magyars.
btw, I don't suppose the Polish Kingdom gets to use Danzig as Freeport at the very least?
The French with British backing are likely to have the ear of the Siamese if they agree to withdraw from meddling in their spheres of influence in the Siamese Realm. By offering back some of the borderlands around Vietiane and southern Laos They may even be able to get some active aid to shore up their position in Indochina, or at least make any covetous eyes think the effort not worth the gain.
Yes it means the French lose some influence in the interim, but they would be in a position to regain it in the postwar as long as they retain the bulk of Indochina. Of course they risk losing it all at the peace otherwise. either to the allied victors or to an independent state.
As to the triple monarchy of the Habsburgs. I think it is highly unlikely. Karl is well aware of the shortcomings and difficulties the many nationalities of his Empire in the prewar boundaries present. He is not an idiot bound to compound them by adding yet more Slavs to the Ethnic mix of his Empire. Slavs would end up in the majority in that case.
Its far more likely that you have Habsburg Satellite Kingdoms instead. Karl already has an established male line to inherit if need be, but his brother Maximilian Eugene could use his own throne and secure Habsburg influence somewhere ( I suggest Ukraine). Independent but under a Habsburg monarch likely to follow a A-H line in European affairs.
As to Poland I was thinking (1) Franz Salvador who is married to Franz Jozef's youngest daughter Marie-Valerie. Make them co-rulers of the resurrected Polish Kingdom. It also provides ample impetus for joining Galizien-Lodomeria to Russian Poland. It would give you three Hapsburg Kingdoms in Central East Europe decended most directly through the male Habsburg line (From Leopold II). Of course for variety and to perhaps gain some measure of influence for Germany..there is (2) Franz Josef's eldest daughter Gisela married to Leopold Wittelsbach ( of Bavaria) Again co-rulers but with a provision that it fall to Franz Salvador and Marie-Valerie should they have no issue. That would be my favoured as it gives at least some nominal influence to Germany in Poland even if indirectly. Of course there is always the longshot..(3) the next female would be Elizabeth Amalia. Half sister to Karl's father Otto. Aloys of Liechtenstein, not much more neutral than that.
Surrendering the independence of the Principality to Karl for the much larger domain of Poland. Perhaps it would become a duchy within A-H under a junior line of Liechtenstein. But as I said...that would be a long shot.
A triple monarchy in this circumstance would be much more manageble less slavs vying for influence with the Germans and Magyars.
btw, I don't suppose the Polish Kingdom gets to use Danzig as Freeport at the very least?
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It goes without saying that perhaps Grand Admiral Henry should probably get Lithuania with Waldemar as C.P. and Prince Frederick Leopold, Belorussia with Frederick Sigismund as C.P. Perhaps Henry can convince his brother to allow him to use Memel as a freeport for Lithuania. Of Course there is always Libau in the Baltic Duchy.
Though why Karl, Duke of Vastergotland for Sweden and not Oskar Karl, Count of Visborg for the Kdm of Finland?
Though why Karl, Duke of Vastergotland for Sweden and not Oskar Karl, Count of Visborg for the Kdm of Finland?
For the Count, let's say that Sweden wanted a Prince as Finnish king, even if they couldn't have Finland in a personal union.
For Poland, you have to remember that not all Slavs are the same. That some reform was needed was not that unrecognised, but, the southern Slavs could not be given too much power (there was the problem of Panslavism and Serbia to consider, plus, the Hungarians wanted to keep all their power, IE, no Crotia-Bosnia/Slav Kingdom).
The Poles are different Slavs from the Serbo-croatic speaking ones, after all. Yes, overall, the Slavs would be in plurality, but don't make the mistake of thinking they are all the same. There is a big difference between Swedes and Flemish, and both are Germanic!
Letting the Poles be a part alleviates the load of keeping the other ethnicities down, while not angering the Hungarians.
For Poland, you have to remember that not all Slavs are the same. That some reform was needed was not that unrecognised, but, the southern Slavs could not be given too much power (there was the problem of Panslavism and Serbia to consider, plus, the Hungarians wanted to keep all their power, IE, no Crotia-Bosnia/Slav Kingdom).
The Poles are different Slavs from the Serbo-croatic speaking ones, after all. Yes, overall, the Slavs would be in plurality, but don't make the mistake of thinking they are all the same. There is a big difference between Swedes and Flemish, and both are Germanic!
Letting the Poles be a part alleviates the load of keeping the other ethnicities down, while not angering the Hungarians.
Yes, there is. I can't promise when, but there will be a continuation, certainly before this year is ended, probably before fall begins, and maybe even this month.