WI British held Crete?
- Thread starter Riain
- Start date
Concentrate fighters in Western Crete and theu could provice support for Malta and divert axis air assets, meaning a less intense siege. The less pressure on Malta the easier it is to build up air defences. Air units on Crete could take responsibility for interdicting convoys from mainland Greece, and provide support for Benghazi, Derna, and Tobruk, leaving units on Malta responsible for causing trouble with shipping from Italy and stopping in Western Libya. It also means better air cover for allied convoys in the Med. Perhaps Rommel is shot down returning to the front during Operation Crusader?
Antother important question is the effects on Greece post war. With a government on Greek soil rather than Cairo, this could limit Communist influence in the resistance movements, perhaps even butterfly away the civil war. With Greece still in the fight, it could encourage more French servicement in Britain to delcare for de Gaulle (only about 7000 out of roughly 140 000 did so IOTL, 10 000 if you include naval personnel).
Antother important question is the effects on Greece post war. With a government on Greek soil rather than Cairo, this could limit Communist influence in the resistance movements, perhaps even butterfly away the civil war. With Greece still in the fight, it could encourage more French servicement in Britain to delcare for de Gaulle (only about 7000 out of roughly 140 000 did so IOTL, 10 000 if you include naval personnel).
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Crete would be under the same threat of aerial attack as Malta, and Britain needed its Spitfires for pointless and wasteful Continental rhubarbs. As the usefulness of Malta could be, and was suppressed with heavy effort, so could Crete, and both could be only defended and operationally effective with heavy defensive effort. Malta only got Spitfires after they had lost their edge over France, to Focke-Wulfs. Do you get twice the value of Malta, with twice the effort of maintaining Crete as well? I don't think so. In favor of maintaining Crete, it would have saved thousands of Cretans who were executed. Another plus is that it would require a concerted effort by the Luftwaffe to suppress, at a time when they had other tasks at hand. On the debit side, it would have encouraged Churchill to dabble in Dodecanese adventures, to everyone's cost.
Derna's out as a port, it's within Swordfish range of Maleme airfield (Tripoli's within range of Malta of course, but Malta's a fair bit smaller than Crete). Also, it puts the Romanian oilfields within range of heavy bombers. Oh, and the Fallschirmjäger just lost another 7000+ men, and the Luftwaffe lost even more transport aircraft.
Here's a useful tool for this sort of thing BTW.
Here's a useful tool for this sort of thing BTW.
It'll take a lot of time and effort to set up a useful heavy bomber force in Crete. The facilities are primitive, the ports are exposed and vulnerable, and the shipping has to go around the Cape. Mosquitos might make more sense - I presume it has the range?
Other than that, it shuts down the convoy routes from Greece and provides fighter cover for Malta convoys. Assuming a Spitfire combat radius of 150 miles or so, then it looks like a fast convoy could just about jump the gap between fighter cover from Crete and fighter cover from Malta overnight.
Other than that, it shuts down the convoy routes from Greece and provides fighter cover for Malta convoys. Assuming a Spitfire combat radius of 150 miles or so, then it looks like a fast convoy could just about jump the gap between fighter cover from Crete and fighter cover from Malta overnight.
Turning Crete into an offensive asset will take time, although the Axis will almost certainly mount a bombing campaign, which will take the pressure of Malta.
Riain
Banned
Polesti is usually the first thing that comes to mind, but looking at those Axis convoy routes I think that is going to be the first problem for the Axis. The RN will be able to run Malta bound convoys up close to Crete, away from the Luftwaffe in the Benghazi bulge, and then due west to Malta. On the other hand the Axis won't be able to run convoys close to the Greek coast near Crete. The RAF will be able to run shuttle recon and bombing missions between Malta, Crete and Egypt. The RN had a forward base setup in Souda Bay, so RN ships could operate from Crete as well.
The big question is what Luftwaffe and RA units were based in Greece, Crete and the Dodecanese after Crete? Could/would they be reinforced in the months before and after Barbarossa?
The big question is what Luftwaffe and RA units were based in Greece, Crete and the Dodecanese after Crete? Could/would they be reinforced in the months before and after Barbarossa?
Malta had the infrastructure in place - it had long been an RN base. Crete, quite the opposite, not only that but also the best ports (in that description can be invalid as far as Crete is concerned), are on the south of the island. In between the 'ports' and the airfields are the mountains - with primitive trails.
Equipping Crete - IMHO - would be a nightmare.
Equipping Crete - IMHO - would be a nightmare.
Mossie - the answer to every problem LOL - sadly not really enough of them early war.
Operating medium bombers from Crete would take away the pressure from mine laying and anti shipping operations being conducted by bombers from Malta
Well looking at other places the Allies managed to build and supply airfields
Certainly a mixed Cruiser / destroyer Squadron could do good work operating from Crete in much the same way as Force K and Force B did from Malta in late 41
If More fighters can be wrested from Fighter command earlier - at teh time they wer epretty much squandering them - they lost about 400 planes and the majority of the Pilots for Fek all over France during 1941 conducting pointless 'Offensive Fighter Sweeps - the LW lost about 100 aircraft pretty much ignoring them - if so then the Island can probably be defended and used as a base for offensive ops as well as taking pressure of Malta.
POD? - Success in the BOB is rewarded and Dowding remains / Park takes over Fighter Command - and doesn't Horde Spitfires so much freeing say half a dozen to a Dozen Squadrons for service in the Med
Seeing some of the places that the Allies built and supplied airbases during WW2 - Crete would be a happy holiday by comparison.
Yes the main port in Crete is on the north coast but then so was Valetta - and that was far closer to Axis airbases.
Granted they are not probably running giant wings of heavy 4 Engined bombers from the place until the facilities have been improved but certainly in 1941 I can see them running Wellingtons and the like out of Crete.
This might be a way to find 6 of your 12 fighter squadrons.
According to the British official history the Top Brass was planning to send out 6 fighter and 6 light bomber squadrons at the end of 1940, but changed its mind.
But if they had been sent they would probably been deployed to Greece where they would suffer heavy losses like the rest of RAF Greece. IOTL what was left of the fighter squadrons went to Crete and were withdrawn to Egypt shortly before the landings began. Another 6 badly mauled fighter squadrons aren't going to stop the invasion happening, but they might allow more supplies to get through to the garrison. That might make it just strong enough to repulse the paratroops.
However, at the same time Churchill thought that the RAF's Middle East Command wasn't making full use of the aircraft that were being sent and had the AOC-in-C sacked. There is probably some truth in the argument that RAF Middle East was being sent more aircraft than it could use because Longmore wanted more maintenance and supply personnel to build up the logistics organisations before receiving more divisions and squadrons.
Therefore if sent the 12 extra squadrons might be stuck in Egypt until the middle of 1941 or be broken up to keep the existing squadrons up to strength.
Crete is not well developed as a base, unlike Malta, that's true.
Naturally, the same can be said about mainland Greece and Sicily. The Luftwaffe and the Regia Aeronautica could count on some decent bases of the latter in Southern Sicily; both would need to develop forward infrastructure for fighters if they'd have to interdict Crete. It would be easier for them on mainland Greece than for the British on Crete, true, but it would be no free lunch.
Crete has bad internal routes, true too.
Naturally, that's because it has a lot of space, unlike Malta. In Malta, two of the three air bases were actually adjoining, so much so that the emergency landing strip for fighters only, Safi, could be used by taxiing fighters to move from one to the other (only Taqali was farther out). Malta was literally short of space, so much so that the new air base of Krendi was never completed in time to be used in the critical time frame. Two adjacent air bases mean, of course, an easier job for bombers attacking them. Crete would offer space and distance.
Naturally, the same can be said about mainland Greece and Sicily. The Luftwaffe and the Regia Aeronautica could count on some decent bases of the latter in Southern Sicily; both would need to develop forward infrastructure for fighters if they'd have to interdict Crete. It would be easier for them on mainland Greece than for the British on Crete, true, but it would be no free lunch.
Crete has bad internal routes, true too.
Naturally, that's because it has a lot of space, unlike Malta. In Malta, two of the three air bases were actually adjoining, so much so that the emergency landing strip for fighters only, Safi, could be used by taxiing fighters to move from one to the other (only Taqali was farther out). Malta was literally short of space, so much so that the new air base of Krendi was never completed in time to be used in the critical time frame. Two adjacent air bases mean, of course, an easier job for bombers attacking them. Crete would offer space and distance.
Fearless Leader
Donor
I'm not so sure... the strategic bombing potential of Crete (not the actual value) IMO would be a major draw for RAF resources and, most likely Luftwaffe resources. Furthermore, maintaining Crete would have been vital to maintaining the legitimacy of the Greek government as well as a staging area for further Aegean adventures/Churchill's obsession with the supposed "Soft Underbelly of Europe". IMO Churchill pries the Spitfires from Fighter Command and sends them to the Mediterranean to keep Crete in allied hands.
Operation Battleaxe likely gets postponed in order to reinforce Crete, which might not be a bad thing for the Allies, considering that it was rushed in OTL. Rommel's logistics are also likely worse than OTL.
Though the UK will need to now send convoys to Crete, sending convoys to Malta will be much easier without LW bases in Crete. Furthermore, there wouldn't be any need for the "Club Runs" in TTL if my math is right. The RAF could easily reinforce Malta by staging Hurricanes and later Spitfires through Maleme airfield.
Crete holding also has MAJOR implications for Greek history as the Greek government in TTL will have exponentially greater legitimacy. With the prospect of an Allied invasion right around the corner, traditional Greek elites likely opt not to collaborate with the German/Italian governments and instead encourage resistance. This in turn likely butterflies away the development of ELAS. Furthermore it likely makes life much worse for the Italians and Germans in TTL, perhaps the Germans take a more active role in the Italian zone in TTL to ensure it's security? If the Germans take it upon themselves to occupy more of the islands Churchill might be dissuaded.
Anyhow, I'd wager that the strain of holding Crete forces Britain to act more conservatively in North Africa in 1941 and early 1942 while sucking up more Luftwaffe resources than OTL. Perhaps in TTL, they decide to adopt a defensive strategy and dig in at El Alamein in order to free up resources for Crete?
America's entry into the war releases more shipping which allows Crete to finally reach it's full potential as a strategic bombing base. By Q1 1943 at the earliest (probably more like Q2) Ploesti and other Balkan targets come under sustained attack from Allied aircraft. This in turn could aid the allied invasion of Italy as Hitler may very well send more reinforcements to Army Group E than OTL.
Plymouth to Gibraltar is only about 1000 miles even with taking a dog-leg around Brest.
I think they were querying factors such as the length of the runway to give enough stopping speed, the strength of it to withstand repeated landings from aircraft that heavy, sufficient fuel supplies and maintenance facilities to handle them etc.
With Crete, unless you are talking about an emergency strip, you would be building an airbase from scratch and not just and airbase for a few squadrons of fighters but an airbase for several hundred aircraft because thats what the accuracy and bombload of the time requires to be able to do anything usefull....that's a lot of material and then there is constant supplying the fuel and bombs for those aircraft and the supplies those crews (air and ground) need to live......in all the threads on Crete as a major airbase, here and elsewhere, i've not seen anything to indicate that you could have anything to support more than a few fighter squadrons and an emergency strip for bombers - developing Crete as a major airbase is not far from the Axis developing the North African ports and road and rail infrastructure...doo-able but would strip resources from elsewhere..
When you think about it the Germans did not make much use of Crete either. The impact of the German victory was more psychological than strategic. While Crete based fighters could have provided fighter escort for Alexandria to Malta conveys it still was a long way from Britain or the US to Alexandria via the Suez Canal.
Riain
Banned
Maleme airfield was the largest and most developed and could handle heavy transport aircraft, which is why the Germans went for it hardest. I'm sure it could handle a few fighter, stringbag and Blenheim squadrons, especially with the other 2 strips in support.
But a lot of work would need to be done before any heavies move in to stay. I couldn't imagine that happening until the USA enters the war.