What if the Japanese Imperial government was not taken over by militarists? Could a British style government develop in Japan? what would the consequences for the twentieth century be for this? What changes would a more democratic Japan have in its foreign policy?
Surviving Taisho Democracy
- Thread starter VictorVanBakker
- Start date
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
I'd say this thread is going to need some defining of terms before it becomes sensible. Specifically, at what point did Taisho Democracy pass the point of no return, and at what point were the militarists firmly in control?
You could argue, for example, that democracy was done in after the 1928 elections, or possibly even the Great Kanto Earthquake; alternatively, it could be said the military and/or militarists were effectively running Japanese politics as early as right after the Manchuko incident, or conversely hadn't yet secured power even as late as the Nanking or even after. To get to the larger questions of the OP, we really need to pin down our PoD and what the short term effects actually are.
You could argue, for example, that democracy was done in after the 1928 elections, or possibly even the Great Kanto Earthquake; alternatively, it could be said the military and/or militarists were effectively running Japanese politics as early as right after the Manchuko incident, or conversely hadn't yet secured power even as late as the Nanking or even after. To get to the larger questions of the OP, we really need to pin down our PoD and what the short term effects actually are.
What would you say is a sensible POD? I would argue 1928 but I'm not that well versed in Japan's history.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
I'm somewhat rusty myself; Shigeru Mizuki argued that a lot of the problems of the Showa period coukd be traced back to the Kanto Earthquake, since the aftermath of that disaster saw the economy increasingly controlled by small number of zaibatsu.
Others would argue that as long as Japan was headed toward all out war with China, the militarists were going to take power; that could require PoD as early as the 1890's or late as 1938, depending on who you ask. I'd say WWI is a good candidate, (and have a thread to such effect somewhere around here).
It's also important to know thought that the zaibatsu was often hated by both left and right, though; in the end, wars are fought by governments, not companies.
I often argue that imperialist ambitions were most strongly seen with 1. the 1895 Liaotung claims and 2. the 21 Demands of 1915. Japan's aggressive foreign policy is rooted stronger than any democracy that comes after, and any democracy is going to have to follow the will of the people(albeit largely destitute and ultra-nationalist), whom often pursued expansionist policies(from the perception that this will lead to the creation of more jobs).
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
This is why I've argued before* that no WWI would be a huge help in this regard. Avoiding the assassination of Ito Hiromubi would also likely be a plus.
*I won't go so far here as I did then to say Japan and China could be allies, only that the PoD is about the best there is for preventing an all out war between them
It is really hard to draw a line between the "democratic" and "miilitarist" or "fascist" era of Japan. There is no clear dividing line the way Hitler's coming to power was in Germany. As late as 1936 there was a moderately free election for the Diet, in which the openly radical right did quite poorly (400,000 votes and six seats), while a labor party (Shakai Taishuto or "social masses party") doubled its previous vote and won 18 seats. The party getting the most votes was the Minseito or Democratic party (4,456,200 votes and 205 seats)--whose governments of 1929-31 had probably been the high-water mark of Japanese liberalism. (During the 1936 campaign, the Minseito used as one of its slogans, "Which shall it be, parliamentary government or Fascism?") In the 1937 election, while the Minseito lost some ground, the Shakai Taishuto advanced (though by that time it was torn between social democracy and national socialism). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_general_election,_1937
OTOH, how democratic was the late 1920's? Here's a negative appraisal: "For example, the Seiyu Kai cabinet of April 1927 to July 1929 headed by General Tanaka Giichi was supposed to be a purely political party Cabinet. Yet in domestic policy it put severe pressure on the left-wing movements and further restricted freedom of speech, publication, and association by revising the Law for the Maintenance of Public Peace in the form of the Emergency Decree. Abroad it adopted the Tanaka 'positive diplomacy,' dispatching troops to China on the occasion of the Tsinan Incident. Until it collapsed after getting entangled in the assassination of Chang Tso-lin, its course of action almost appears to be that of a fascist government." Masao Maruyama, *Thought and Behavior in Modern Japanese Politics* (Oxford University Press paperback edition 1969), p. 81. In this perspective, the relative liberalism of the Minseito governments of 1929-31 was the aberration, and militarism the general rule.
OTOH, how democratic was the late 1920's? Here's a negative appraisal: "For example, the Seiyu Kai cabinet of April 1927 to July 1929 headed by General Tanaka Giichi was supposed to be a purely political party Cabinet. Yet in domestic policy it put severe pressure on the left-wing movements and further restricted freedom of speech, publication, and association by revising the Law for the Maintenance of Public Peace in the form of the Emergency Decree. Abroad it adopted the Tanaka 'positive diplomacy,' dispatching troops to China on the occasion of the Tsinan Incident. Until it collapsed after getting entangled in the assassination of Chang Tso-lin, its course of action almost appears to be that of a fascist government." Masao Maruyama, *Thought and Behavior in Modern Japanese Politics* (Oxford University Press paperback edition 1969), p. 81. In this perspective, the relative liberalism of the Minseito governments of 1929-31 was the aberration, and militarism the general rule.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Now see, this gets to another problematic aspect of the OP -- militarism isn't the opposite of democracy.
The weakness of liberalism prior to the Minseito government wasn't due to the strong military in Japan (esp since the 1920's in general were kind of a low water mark for the army), but due to society and government as a whole simply being more conservative. The ascendency of the right in the 1930's wasn't Japan returning to these pre-democratic roots, but moving in another direction entirely.
So the real challenge here isn't to "preserving democracy", so much as it is "preventing militarism from derailing the move toward democracy". So the PoD might be prior to democracy's high water mark, to keep military ambitions from becoming too dangerous, or it might come after, to allow the move toward further democratization to continue.
What about removing the requirement that a Navy and Army officer need to be part of the Cabinet, when the Minster of the Army and Navy be a civilian?
This is essential. This requirement is what allowed the military an effective veto on the government. Without it, the military is restricted on the mischief it can do. Much more likely the government can discipline the military and prevent officers from doing whatever they liked. Firing some general officers for disobedience will make the military much more respectful of the government.
Still, the extreme hurt from the Great Depression is going to have some politically destabilizing effects.
And if the companies control the government or at least work with parts of it? Manchukuo seems to have been run by a military-corporate cabal, from what I've seen it was effectively administered as a protection racket writ large. The military effected the seizure of the region on their own initiative, a corporation, I forget which one, was brought in to run it and split the profits with the military effectively freeing them from central government control. Since they had their own self-funding fief they then proceeded to expand into China at will as a fait accompli. This is going from memory at two in the morning though.
