March 28, 2014
The European Union and United States announced a ban on Russian businesses gaining loans from European banks. Anti-war demonstrations took place in London but, following the loss of Flight 12, they were in the minority. Outrage only increased as news came through of the bodies of the dead being interfered with, amid allegations of Russian troops destroying the black boxes which were aboard the plane. Faced with the choice of either backing down, and potentially encouraging Putin to push even further, or pushing harder himself and potentially starting a war, Prime Minister David Cameron chose the latter. The United Kingdom became the first NATO country to place its military on high alert. In a speech announcing this action, Cameron stated that “Russia has proven time and time again that it cannot be reasoned with. It recognises only force, and respects only force. The only way to make President Putin realise he is playing with fire is to show him the consequences.” The Foreign Office advised him to make the call, with Foreign Secretary William Hague confident that it was the only way to force Russia to see sense. "Perhaps cooler heads will prevail," he told the Prime Minister. According to The Guardian newspaper, civil servants were digging up old files from the 1980s detailing wartime plans. However, NATO’s leaders had no intention of starting a war. It was hoped that a significant response would pressure Putin into coming back round the negotiation table.
President Obama gave a press conference in which he condemned as “reprehensible” the Russian actions, a view echoed by the rest of NATO as well as NATO allies around the world such as Australia and Japan. Others, such as South Korea, called on both sides to deescalate tensions. At an emergency sitting of the United Nations Security Council however, China defended Russia, insisting that there was no proof that the shooting down of Flight 12 was deliberate and that more time was needed to establish solid facts. The British government was criticised for a knee-jerk response to satisfy public demand for tough action. The United Kingdom dismissed these claims, but its actions were making even some NATO members nervous. David Cameron met with both the Dutch and Norwegian ambassadors in Downing Street, who voiced the concerns of their government that Britain was pushing Europe into unnecessary escalation. Cameron agreed to try to calm the situation down, by calling for a summit in Geneva including Russia, the United States, and European Union, to establish a framework for better cooperation.
March 29, 2014
The United States raised its alert level to DEFCON 3, in response to reports of a wider military mobilisation of Russian forces. In the Baltic States, the government was preparing for the worst. Up to 30,000 civilians had evacuated from the three countries by this point, intending to stay in Polish, Czech, and German hotels until the end of the crisis. Interviews with them were regularly seen on national news across the world, while back home their governments were mobilising their forces in preparation for possible hostile action. The 2nd Cavalry Regiment, United States Army, and three infantry battalions and an armoured battalion from the 2nd Marine Division, were airlifted into Latvia in a rapid deployment. The aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, already present in the North Sea, stationed itself off western Norway while joined by the amphibious assault ship Kearsage and amphibious transport dock Mesa Verde, along with a complement of destroyers and cruisers. The carriers Dwight D. Eisenhower and George H.W. Bush had already stationed themselves in the North Atlantic and eastern Mediterranean, respectively. The presence of the Kearsage and Mesa Verde signalled a capability by the Americans to make rapid amphibious landings, implying a resolve to counter any Russian occupation of the Baltic States. They were soon joined by the Royal Navy ships Ocean and Bulwark.
The Secret Intelligence Service, or MI6, reported to the Prime Minister that President Putin had been meeting regularly with the General Staff of the Armed Forces. COBRA had been meeting regularly since the shooting down of Flight 12, and now began discussing worst-case scenario plans. Russian activity in the Baltic had also been stepped up, with additional flights by the Russian Air Force regularly buzzing the NATO ships stationed there. In Moscow, President Putin ordered the armed forces to begin a full scale military mobilisation. Reservists were called up, with roads across Russia filling with convoys of green military trucks.
March 30, 2014
The awaited summit meant to take place in Geneva was postponed by three days, at the request of the Russian government. The Russians claimed that they needed additional time to formulate several proposals, which they described as “promising.” In truth, the postponement was a ruse. President Putin was meeting once again with the General Staff. Certain that Russia’s status as a great power was on the line, Putin told those assembled that “today we must decide if our greatness will be banished for a century.” The General Staff presented the President with a plan, which had been in existence since 1995 and updated regularly, called Operation Scythe. The plan was to make a first strike which would push NATO out of the Baltic States, before offering negotiations from a position of strength. General Sergey Shoygu, Minister of Defence, condemned the plan as suicidal but Putin was convinced that such a conflict would be localised, and certain to end with Russian gains. The small size of the contested area would make a nuclear exchange hugely improbable, and he was certain that Western politicians so sensitive to the opinions of an anti-war public would jump at the chance for negotiations. Did NATO really want the Baltic States that badly, after all? General Shoygu resigned as Minister of Defence, refusing to be party to the operation. He was arrested minutes later.
March 31, 2014
An additional 8,000 American troops arrived in Lithuania, along with French and Spanish air assets. British forces began to arrive at North Sea ports in Belgium and the Netherlands, with trucks carrying heavy equipment into Poland. Autobahns in northern Germany were regularly filled with military equipment. The extraordinary size of the NATO deployment was dismissed by its organisers as “strictly defensive.” It was also hugely ambitious, requiring a remarkable feat in logistics and transport over a very short period. Few NATO forces ended up stationed in Estonia. Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland were the focus of the troop deployment, with Estonia considered too dangerous at the present time. Anti-war rallies went off across the European Union and United States. The President of India, Pranab Mukherjee, made an address in which he called on all sides to immediately end the growing hostility and begin talking again. His pleas were brushed aside, as Japan reported increased Russian submarine activity in the Sea of Japan. British ships in the North Sea reported being shadowed by Russian submarines.
In Minsk, capital of Belarus, there were conflicting reports that Russian-speaking troops wearing unmarked uniforms had appeared outside government buildings. Attempts to contact the Belarussian government failed before President Alexander Lukashenko appeared several hours later, informing the people of Belarus on national television that the Russian troops in the capital were there to “protect us from potential outside attack,” and encouraged Belarusians to welcome them. Several anti-Russian rallies took place in the capital, but were met with brutality from riot police. In the United States, the National Reconnaissance Office reported that Russian tank columns were crossing the border into Belarus. No resistance was reported, as President Lukashenko insisted that Belarus was “an equal partner with the Russian Federation.”
In Moscow the United States' Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, Victoria Nuland, met personally with President Putin in an attempt to sort out a clear arrangement before the planned summit in Geneva, their ambassador having been expelled several days before along with the other NATO embassies. She later reported back to Washington; “it’s just like in the movies. It’s hopeless.”