With the benefit of some degree of hindsight, let's make a shot at a timeline projecting events had the conflict in Ukraine spiraled into a shooting war, back in March.
February 14, 2010
Viktor Yanukovych was declared the winner in a the Ukrainian presidential election. His main rival, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, was arrested for abuse of powers and eventually jailed the following year.
November 21, 2013
President Yanukovych's cabinet abandoned an agreement on closer trade ties with the European Union, instead seeking closer co-operation with Russia. Small protests started.
Late November, 2013
Protests gathered pace, as 100,000 people attended a demonstration in Kiev opposing the refusal of the government to seek better relations with the West.
Early December, 2013
Protesters occupied Kiev City Hall and Independence Square in the centre of the Ukrainian capital. Some 800,000 people rallied in Kiev, in protests which gained the name Euromaidan, fueled by the perception of widespread government corruption, abuse of power, and abuses of human rights.
December 17, 2013
Throwing President Yanukovych an economic lifeline, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to buy $15bn of Ukrainian debt and reduce the price of Russian gas supplies by about a third.
January 16-23, 2014
Parliament passed restrictive anti-protest laws as clashes turned deadly in Kiev. Protesters began storming regional government offices in western Ukraine.
January 28-29, 2014
Prime Minister Mykola Azarov resigned and parliament annuled the anti-protest law. Parliament passed an amnesty bill, but the opposition rejected its conditions.
February 20, 2014
Kiev saw its worst day of violence for almost 70 years. At least 88 people were killed in 48 hours. Video showed uniformed snipers firing at protesters holding makeshift shields, while heavy rioting took place involving the use of firebombs.
February 21, 2014
In the lead up to the day's parliamentary session, it was reported that many members of the Party of Regions and their families had fled the capital, including acting Interior Minister Zakharchenko and Prosecutor General Viktor Psonka.
February 22, 2014
President Yanukovych disappeared, with his location unknown. In the midst of the uncertainty, the Ukrainian Parliament voted to remove him from power. New elections were set for May 25, as the former President's rival Yulia Tymoshenko was released from prison. Former Prime Minister and speaker Oleksandr Turchynov was made acting President. An arrest warrant was issued for former President Yanukovych, accusing him of complicity in the murder of protestors. Yanukovych would later appear in Russia, alongside President Putin.
February 27-28, 2014
Pro-Russian gunmen seized key buildings in the Crimean capital, Simferopol. Unidentified gunmen in combat uniforms appeared outside Crimea's main airports, suspected to be militia supplied by Russia, or even Russian soldiers.
March 1, 2014
Russia's parliament approved President Vladimir Putin's request to use force in Ukraine to protect Russian interests.
March 14, 2014, point of divergence
The Ukrainian missile boat Pryluky attacked the Russian corvette Razliv off the coast of Balaklava. It fired a P-15 Termit anti-ship missile which impacted the Russian corvette and killed 22 men, crippling the corvette which was shortly abandoned. Within an hour, Russian fighter aircraft attacked and destroyed the Pryluky with the death of all 30 sailors aboard. Western leaders called for an immediate ceasefire, with the United Nations brought into an emergency session in New York as delegates attempted to find a peaceful settlement. The efforts were hopeless, with Russia condemning Ukraine's interim government as illegitimate and the result of a west-backed coup.
March 15, 2014
Russian fighter aircraft bombed the Port of Odessa, sinking three Ukrainian Navy ships and killing up to 300 people, most of them servicemen. The West condemned the attacks and demanded both sides enter into negotiations. NATO demanded that Russia vacate from Crimea, while forces in Europe were put on high alert. However, most analysts and observers considered it very unlikely that the West would take any serious action beyond sanctions. Later that night, Ukrainian Su-24Ms bombed the Russian naval base at Sevastopol, causing heavy damage to a docked destroyer, with three of their number shot down. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Ukraine had made war on Russia.
March 16, 2014
The United States and European leaders prepared to place economic sanctions on Russia, with travel suspended for a number of high-profile Russian businessmen with close ties to President Putin, as well as restrictions on access to Western banks by Russian companies. In the White House, President Obama was shown satellite imagery that indicated a massive buildup of Russian forces beginning to take shape on the Ukrainian border.
March 17, 2014
After an uneasy day of peace, Russia suddenly launched a full scale air campaign against Ukraine to destroy its Air Force. Bombs fell on Kiev, targeting government headquarters, while military bases were devastated. The far smaller Ukrainian Air Force suffered heavy losses, but MiG-29s and Su-27s were able to inflict losses on the Russians. However, the anti-aircraft network was very weak with most of its equipment in storage and Russian aircraft were thus able to penetrate deep into Ukraine with impunity. The Ukrainian government issued an order for a general mobilisation of forces as well as initial plans for conscription. International airlines cancelled all flights to Ukraine, with the airspace over the country declared off limits by the European Union. The Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) affirmed complete support for Russia; this implied that Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan could potentially join the war. In all countries, reports indicated general mobilisation of forces.
March 18, 2014
A NATO taskforce deployed to Poland, comprising 15,000 American troops, 8,000 British, 7,000 French, 5,000 Italian, and 5,000 German. Belgian and Dutch aircraft also arrived. Additional forces were planned to arrive in the Baltic States. In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister David Cameron announced that previously planned spending cuts on the military may be abandoned and reversed.
Thoughts?
February 14, 2010
Viktor Yanukovych was declared the winner in a the Ukrainian presidential election. His main rival, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, was arrested for abuse of powers and eventually jailed the following year.
November 21, 2013
President Yanukovych's cabinet abandoned an agreement on closer trade ties with the European Union, instead seeking closer co-operation with Russia. Small protests started.
Late November, 2013
Protests gathered pace, as 100,000 people attended a demonstration in Kiev opposing the refusal of the government to seek better relations with the West.
Early December, 2013
Protesters occupied Kiev City Hall and Independence Square in the centre of the Ukrainian capital. Some 800,000 people rallied in Kiev, in protests which gained the name Euromaidan, fueled by the perception of widespread government corruption, abuse of power, and abuses of human rights.
December 17, 2013
Throwing President Yanukovych an economic lifeline, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to buy $15bn of Ukrainian debt and reduce the price of Russian gas supplies by about a third.
January 16-23, 2014
Parliament passed restrictive anti-protest laws as clashes turned deadly in Kiev. Protesters began storming regional government offices in western Ukraine.
January 28-29, 2014
Prime Minister Mykola Azarov resigned and parliament annuled the anti-protest law. Parliament passed an amnesty bill, but the opposition rejected its conditions.
February 20, 2014
Kiev saw its worst day of violence for almost 70 years. At least 88 people were killed in 48 hours. Video showed uniformed snipers firing at protesters holding makeshift shields, while heavy rioting took place involving the use of firebombs.
February 21, 2014
In the lead up to the day's parliamentary session, it was reported that many members of the Party of Regions and their families had fled the capital, including acting Interior Minister Zakharchenko and Prosecutor General Viktor Psonka.
February 22, 2014
President Yanukovych disappeared, with his location unknown. In the midst of the uncertainty, the Ukrainian Parliament voted to remove him from power. New elections were set for May 25, as the former President's rival Yulia Tymoshenko was released from prison. Former Prime Minister and speaker Oleksandr Turchynov was made acting President. An arrest warrant was issued for former President Yanukovych, accusing him of complicity in the murder of protestors. Yanukovych would later appear in Russia, alongside President Putin.
February 27-28, 2014
Pro-Russian gunmen seized key buildings in the Crimean capital, Simferopol. Unidentified gunmen in combat uniforms appeared outside Crimea's main airports, suspected to be militia supplied by Russia, or even Russian soldiers.
March 1, 2014
Russia's parliament approved President Vladimir Putin's request to use force in Ukraine to protect Russian interests.
March 14, 2014, point of divergence
The Ukrainian missile boat Pryluky attacked the Russian corvette Razliv off the coast of Balaklava. It fired a P-15 Termit anti-ship missile which impacted the Russian corvette and killed 22 men, crippling the corvette which was shortly abandoned. Within an hour, Russian fighter aircraft attacked and destroyed the Pryluky with the death of all 30 sailors aboard. Western leaders called for an immediate ceasefire, with the United Nations brought into an emergency session in New York as delegates attempted to find a peaceful settlement. The efforts were hopeless, with Russia condemning Ukraine's interim government as illegitimate and the result of a west-backed coup.
March 15, 2014
Russian fighter aircraft bombed the Port of Odessa, sinking three Ukrainian Navy ships and killing up to 300 people, most of them servicemen. The West condemned the attacks and demanded both sides enter into negotiations. NATO demanded that Russia vacate from Crimea, while forces in Europe were put on high alert. However, most analysts and observers considered it very unlikely that the West would take any serious action beyond sanctions. Later that night, Ukrainian Su-24Ms bombed the Russian naval base at Sevastopol, causing heavy damage to a docked destroyer, with three of their number shot down. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Ukraine had made war on Russia.
March 16, 2014
The United States and European leaders prepared to place economic sanctions on Russia, with travel suspended for a number of high-profile Russian businessmen with close ties to President Putin, as well as restrictions on access to Western banks by Russian companies. In the White House, President Obama was shown satellite imagery that indicated a massive buildup of Russian forces beginning to take shape on the Ukrainian border.
March 17, 2014
After an uneasy day of peace, Russia suddenly launched a full scale air campaign against Ukraine to destroy its Air Force. Bombs fell on Kiev, targeting government headquarters, while military bases were devastated. The far smaller Ukrainian Air Force suffered heavy losses, but MiG-29s and Su-27s were able to inflict losses on the Russians. However, the anti-aircraft network was very weak with most of its equipment in storage and Russian aircraft were thus able to penetrate deep into Ukraine with impunity. The Ukrainian government issued an order for a general mobilisation of forces as well as initial plans for conscription. International airlines cancelled all flights to Ukraine, with the airspace over the country declared off limits by the European Union. The Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) affirmed complete support for Russia; this implied that Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan could potentially join the war. In all countries, reports indicated general mobilisation of forces.
March 18, 2014
A NATO taskforce deployed to Poland, comprising 15,000 American troops, 8,000 British, 7,000 French, 5,000 Italian, and 5,000 German. Belgian and Dutch aircraft also arrived. Additional forces were planned to arrive in the Baltic States. In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister David Cameron announced that previously planned spending cuts on the military may be abandoned and reversed.
Thoughts?
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