The heresy that walked like an empire

Kabraloth

So, amassing what little motivation I have left, this is a rough outline of a possible timeline.

1761: Friedrich II of Prussia dies during the siege of Bunzelwitz, which surrenders to the Russians. Following him to the throne is his younger brother Heinrich (as king Heinrich I). Despite his best efforts and valiant battles, Prussia completely collapses in 1762 and is partitioned.
Silesia (and assorted territories around the Rhine) go to Austria once more, East Prussia is annexed by Russia, France gains Neuenburg, monetary compensation (which does not help) and the confidence that at least it didn't lose in Europe (which does not help either). Saxony and other co-belligerents gorge themselves on what is left. Heinrich however keeps the electorate of Brandenburg.
1763: Tsarina Екатери́на II trades with Poland-Lithuania Kurland and Zemgale for East Prussia.
1777: War of Bavarian Succession: after a series of minor battles against assorted princes, Joseph II. annexes large parts of Lower Bavaria and the Upper Palatinate. In return, Elector Karl Theodor gains Upper Austria and a huge monetary compensation.
1780: Maria Theresia dies, Joseph II. becomes sole emperor.
1782: When Joseph attempts to cut another deal with Karl Theodor, Saxony, Hanover, and other principalities form the Fürstenbund (Prince's League) to limit Austrian power concentration (which Russia backs).
1783: When Russia attempts to cut off more territory off Poland-Lithuania, Joseph II. sees his chance for a quick victorious war, supports Stanislas II August.
1784: Revolts in many parts of the Habsburg Realm force Joseph to a compromise peace: Russia no longer backs the Fürstenbund, while Joseph no longer objects to Russia gaining territory on Poland's expense. Russia promptly annexes large swathes of Lithuania.
1785: After forcing through the exchange of all Bavaria for the Austrian Netherlands against princely opposition, Joseph II. starts another round of internal reforms. Meanwhile, Karl Theodor is crowned as king Karl IV. of the kingdom of Burgundy.
1785-1789: Continuous uprisings through the Habsburg possessions due to Joseph's badly done reforms.
1787–1792: Russo–Turkish War. At the end of the war, the Ottoman Empire is forced to recognize Russia's annexation of the Crimean Khanate, while the Ottoman-Russian borders stay the same.
1788: Suffering from and his failures before his eyes, Joseph II. dies in Vienna. Leopold II. ascends to the thrones.
1789: Despite all the changes of this timeline, French Revolution occurs relatively on time.

Thoughts so far?
 

rcduggan

but if France gained monetary compensation, that would have huge effects. because the money they receive would not be pittance, and would replenish the French treasury. without the lack of money, the French revolution would be delayed, if it would happen at all.
 

Kabraloth

rcduggan said:
but if France gained monetary compensation, that would have huge effects. because the money they receive would not be pittance, and would replenish the French treasury. without the lack of money, the French revolution would be delayed, if it would happen at all.
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Yes, but the US revolution still happens. I'd imagine that a lot of that extra cash - which doesn't dissapear thanks to an inefficient system or the occassional extra festivity - is blown out trying to help the fledgling USA.
 

stevep

A couple of questions

Kabraloth

Just to check, does the kingdom of Burgundy basically mean the former Austrian Netherlands? Presume so but potentially a dangerous name as it could incite concern in both France and the Netherlands.

With Prussian largely defeated and Austria looking more powerful I could see local politicians in Hanover wanting to join the anti-Austrian league. However it shares its king with Britain and that will carry more weight. Suspect Britain would been more concerned about the Bourbon powers of France and Spain and hence would seek to maintain/restore their previous alliance with Austria. After all not sure the Austrian empire is gaining that much in the short term as I think the Austrian Netherlands was significantly richer than the Bavarian area they gained in return. [Furthermore, while Joseph's reforms may have a big effect in the longer run, if they are carried through, the disorder resulting from them may make Austria look weaker, at least in the short term]. I think they will still be concerned about preventing France getting too strong themselves.

The basic think is what is Britain doing and how does it respond to Prussia's defeat? Does it still make the big gains of OTL or is it forced to return more of its conquests. [If Canada is returned to France there may well be no American revolution, or it may be defeated]. Britain is not the 800lb gorilla it is in the 19thC but it is still a major power and the defeat of its main ally in Germany at the time will have a big effect on the wider ending of the conflict and also what comes afterwards so you really need to cover that.

Steve
 

JP_Morgan

If I were to think about this, I'd say that it might be much harder, though not impossible for Britain to make the gains in North Ameirca it did in OTL.

Why? Keep in mind that Britain's navy is still strong regardless. I suppose the most that could happen is Britain might be more concerned with the fighting in Europe. This in turn might mean that the siege of Quebec City never happens, or is not well-thought out and they keep the Phillippines and/or Florida if they have nothing else to gain once they decide they want peace.
 

Smaug

Just a thought, but would England have the Hessians they used in America in TTL? How would this affect things?
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

Donor
Smaug said:
Just a thought, but would England have the Hessians they used in America in TTL? How would this affect things?
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They were essentially mercenaries; probably they could find someone else willing to be bought ? I expect in OTL there may even have been offers by others that did not need to be taken up, so its worth looking into there

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
V-J

V-J

Kabraloth said:
1785: After forcing through the exchange of all Bavaria for the Austrian Netherlands against princely opposition, Joseph II. starts another round of internal reforms. Meanwhile, Karl Theodor is crowned as king Karl IV. of the kingdom of Burgundy.
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The French and the Dutch would not like this one bit.
 

Kabraloth

Wow, nice responses. If RL things don't interfer, I'll attempt to rehearse an updated TL.

> Just to check, does the kingdom of Burgundy basically mean the former Austrian Netherlands? Presume so but potentially a dangerous name as it could incite concern in both France and the Netherlands.

Yes, that is, the Austrian Netherlands plus the Palatinate (which the Wittelsbachs own). This was an OTL plan which had almost been done, except that Prussia created the Fürstenbund to foil that plan for good.

>Suspect Britain would been more concerned about the Bourbon powers of France and Spain and hence would seek to maintain/restore their previous alliance with Austria.

That is a good point and one I had not thought about. Since the American revolution occurs on time TTL, I'd assumed they were pretty busy elsewhere, same with the French and the Spanish. Hanover, as I wrote, does join TTLs Fürstenbund, which is also backed by Russia.

>After all not sure the Austrian empire is gaining that much in the short term as I think the Austrian Netherlands was significantly richer than the Bavarian area they gained in return.

I'm not sure, actually. Bavaria at that time was a pretty strong and prosperous realm, afaik.

> [Furthermore, while Joseph's reforms may have a big effect in the longer run, if they are carried through, the disorder resulting from them may make Austria look weaker, at least in the short term].

Considering that his reforms nearly destroyed the Habsburg realm, yes, that is a possibility.

> The basic think is what is Britain doing and how does it respond to Prussia's defeat? Does it still make the big gains of OTL or is it forced to return more of its conquests.

> If I were to think about this, I'd say that it might be much harder, though not impossible for Britain to make the gains in North Ameirca it did in OTL.

> Just a thought, but would England have the Hessians they used in America in TTL? How would this affect things?

The POD is Friedrich dying in the second last year of the 7 years war. Since Heinrich hangs on almost as long as his brother OTL did (although he does lose in the end), the war in the colonies (and the Treaty of Paris) does remain unchanged.
Note that by this time, the UK was not supporting Prussia anymore anyway so there's no reason why anything in America should be affected. IMHO.

> The French and the Dutch would not like this one bit.
They don't, but on the other hand, it is not that much of a deal. The distant strong rulership of the Habsburgs is replaced by the nearer not quite as powerful rulership of the Wittelsbachs. Now, Russia did care more.
 

stevep

Kabraloth said:
Wow, nice responses. If RL things don't interfer, I'll attempt to rehearse an updated TL.

That is a good point and one I had not thought about. Since the American revolution occurs on time TTL, I'd assumed they were pretty busy elsewhere, same with the French and the Spanish. Hanover, as I wrote, does join TTLs Fürstenbund, which is also backed by Russia.


> If I were to think about this, I'd say that it might be much harder, though not impossible for Britain to make the gains in North Ameirca it did in OTL.
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Kabraloth

Thanks for the replies. Just to clarify if your saying Britain doesn't make the big gains in Canada and eastern Louisana then I doubt the US revolution would occur on schedual. At the very least it might be markedly delayed while it might be butterflied away or go the other way. Britain will still have the desire to get some support from the colonies but they will be a lot more concerned about the threat from the French and hence more likely to stay loyal.

You probably know but just to remind others with a POD this late in the war Canada is already in British hands. Things are probably largely in hand for the capture of both Havanna and Manlia, especially given the defeat of the French fleets in 1759. However the question is, given the worsen position in Europe would more of the gains be traded back at the peace, as both Cuba and the Philippines were historically, although the former in exchange for Florida.

> Just a thought, but would England have the Hessians they used in America in TTL? How would this affect things?
Click to expand...

The Hessians were traditional mercenaries and Britain would still be pretty rich so I doubt they would be unavailable. It depends on whether they would be needed in the Americas, or whether they would be willing to raise local troops, which was another option Britain suggested. Also given the political situation the rebels might be able to make much less propaganda out of the use of mercenaries - which was what virtually all forces were at the time.

Steve
 

Kabraloth

stevep said:
Thanks for the replies. Just to clarify if your saying Britain doesn't make the big gains in Canada and eastern Louisana then I doubt the US revolution would occur on schedual.
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They do make the big gains because the POD does not affect the American campaign at all. Please not that when I put ">" in front of a line, I was quoting someone. I will rectify this and use the quote tag from now on.

However the question is, given the worsen position in Europe would more of the gains be traded back at the peace, as both Cuba and the Philippines were historically, although the former in exchange for Florida.
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I'm not sure that the situation is so much worse. While France gained compensation, Britain had already stopped supporting Prussia a few years ago. Even with the additional money, I don't see how France could rebuild its navy quickly enough for it to force Britain to agree to a different treaty. What do you think?

The Hessians were traditional mercenaries and Britain would still be pretty rich so I doubt they would be unavailable.
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The Hessians - to my knowledge - were mercenaried by their prince because he could not hold up his lavishly versaillesque lifestyle without lots and lots of money. I do not see this changing, especially considering that they fought against France in the 7 years war, so they'd be even more pressed for money.

It depends on whether they would be needed in the Americas, or whether they would be willing to raise local troops, which was another option Britain suggested. Also given the political situation the rebels might be able to make much less propaganda out of the use of mercenaries - which was what virtually all forces were at the time.
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That sounds interesting. Could you elaborate on the local troops bit a little more, please?

Wendell said:
In 1945, they had no choice in the matter, but hadn't the Prussians Silesia at this time?:confused:
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Well, the first entry in the mini-TL states:
1761: Friedrich II of Prussia dies during the siege of Bunzelwitz, which surrenders to the Russians. Following him to the throne is his younger brother Heinrich (as king Heinrich I). Despite his best efforts and valiant battles, Prussia completely collapses in 1762 and is partitioned.
Silesia (and assorted territories around the Rhine) go to Austria once more, East Prussia is annexed by Russia, France gains Neuenburg, monetary compensation (which does not help) and the confidence that at least it didn't lose in Europe (which does not help either). Saxony and other co-belligerents gorge themselves on what is left. Heinrich however keeps the electorate of Brandenburg.

In other words: the allied powers go through with their OTL plans to partition Prussia. After wringing it down during 7 years of war (no ASB miracle of the house of Brandenburg here), Prussia is in no position to do anything against it anymore.
 

Kabraloth

Ok, let's try the initial thingy again...
First with the POD and the end of the Seven Years' War. For the sake of discussion the POD and the things resulting from the POD are in italics:
1761
Between August and September of 1761, Frederick II and his army were holed up in the fortified camp at Bunzelwitz in Silesia, surrounded by a combined Austrian and Russian force which outnumbered them more than 2:1.
While the Prussian army fortified the camp by all available means, the troops largely did not attack because the Russian contingent was unwilling to commit itself to an attack due to political reasons, even though the Austrian commander von Laundon did have an assault plan.

POD: Finally agreeing to a plan that would not involve much risk to his troops, on 2nd September, the Russian commander Buturlin began a large-scale faint: while leaving behind 20,000 troops, most of the Russian army began retrating behind the Oder, as their supply was running out. Sensing an end to the Austro-Russian campaign, Frederick attempted a risque attack towards the Neiße, which aimed to destroy the Austrian lines of supply.
While Laundon used this tactical error to capture the important fortress Schweidnitz (near Bunzelwitz), Buturlin's army attacked Frederick's army in a skirmish near the Neiße, forcing them to retreat into Laundon's arms.
During the ensuing battle of Bunzelwitz, Frederick II was hit by a stray bullet and fell from his horse, dead. Large parts of his army deserted, while a remainder of 10,000 troops attempted to flee into Brandenburg, but were captured by Austrian troops.

Meanwhile, the Russian troops unter Pyotr Rumyantsev managed to critically weaken Prussian forces in Pomerania, not least to troops of the Korps Buturlin, which was now on its was past the Oder. The fortress Kolberg fell on December 16.
Both successes left the Mark Brandenburg wide open for Russian and Austrian troops. When news of the king's death spread, large parts of the Prussian main army fled.

Not affected was the west front against France, which was almost fought independantly of the eastern campaign. After the battle of Vellinghausen in July, disunity in the French leadership left this front uneventful during the Russo-Austrian successes.

December proved to be the fateful month for Prussia: while the recently crowned king Heinrich tried to gather the troops for a counteroffensive to retake Kolberg, the British Prime Minister Pitt was removed from power and the British subsidies ceased, throwing Prussia into a virtually inescapably bleak situation.

1762
On January 5th, Tsarina Elisabeth died. Her successor, the prussophile Peter III, immediatly ordered hostility to cease, and attempted to mediate a peace between Prussia and Sweden.

Fearing an imminent peace between Russia and Prussia, both French and Austrian armies made last-ditch efforts to capture Berlin (which the Russian troops were now abandoning under order of Peter III) and anything west of the Rhine.
Ironically, the last battle of the European theatre, Freiberg was a defense against a Prussian relief attack against Austrian troops in Saxony. Ending in total disaster, the Prussian army dissolved in mass desertions.
Even after Peter III was couped and killed by his wife in February of 1762, the now-Tsarina Katharina, the Russian troops remained out of battle while the Austrian troops continued to occupy the Mark Brandenburg, while the French broke the western Prussian troops' back for good.
Formal surrender was signed by Heinrich in September 1762, de facto ending the European war, although it would not officially end until 1763.

1763
Final peace was declared in the 1763 treaties of Paris and Vienna.

Treaty of Paris
No changes from OTL.

Treaty of Vienna
Sweden gained the Prussian parts of Hither Pomerania
Saxony gained Kottbus, and parts of Magdeburg
Russia gained East Prussia
Austria gained Silesia and Gellern
France gained Neuenburg, Mark, and Kleve, but exchanged Mark, and Kleve to Austria for border towns in the Austrian Netherlands (among them Meenen, Ypres, and Tournay) and monetary compensation (which Austria wrung out of Hesse)

With the loss of Prussia, the kingdom of Prussia ceased to exist, instead it was reverted to the Electorate of Brandenburg

Should I be able to get access to a usable map of this time period, I will upload the territorial changes.
 

Kabraloth

...and they cut...
(Lacks Netherlands, will add when I found a fitting base map.)

PrussiaPostSevenYearsWar.png
 

stevep

Kabraloth said:
They do make the big gains because the POD does not affect the American campaign at all. Please not that when I put ">" in front of a line, I was quoting someone. I will rectify this and use the quote tag from now on.
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OK, wasn't sure about that as I realised it was a quote from someone else but couldn't see a reply so wasn't sure whether you were agreeing with it or not.

I'm not sure that the situation is so much worse. While France gained compensation, Britain had already stopped supporting Prussia a few years ago. Even with the additional money, I don't see how France could rebuild its navy quickly enough for it to force Britain to agree to a different treaty. What do you think?
Click to expand...

[FONT=&quot] The problem is, not only do you have the drastic reduction in British support for Prussia after Pitt is dismissed [in 1761 if I recall although a long time since I read about it. Used to be one of my favourite periods]. You also have the collapse of Prussian and effectively the other small states in the region that opposed French expansion. Unless Britain can build up a new alliance pretty quickly and especially break the Franco-Austria accord the balance of power is destroyed. This also means that Hanover is very exposed to the two hostile powers. Don't forget that after the previous conflict, Britain conceded significant gains overseas in return for the French withdrawing from the occupied areas of the Austrian Netherlands. Also OTL it gave up many of its overseas gains, the French Caribbean islands, Senegal, Cuba and the Philippines. [Getting in return relatively minor gains in Florida and eastern Louisiana]. Under those circumstances it could give up more in return for concessions in Europe. Alternatively, if they decide to go it alone then they might keep the rich historical gains and not go for the continental territorial concessions in N America. That could make a significant difference. In terms of extra wealth for Britain, deep resentment in Spain and France and also decreasing the chances of any rebellion in N America. [Both because the richer Britain may decide to let the colonies off payments and because the colonies, with a stronger Franco-Spanish presence will be far less likely to be rebellious]. Not meant to be special pleading to avoid a US rebellion with the historical result but to demonstrate how easily that could occur].[/FONT]

Although the scenario mentioned above might actually make a rebellion more likely in one way. The British desire was to tax the colonies to meet the ongoing costs of defending them in peace time. With the French still on the east bank of the Mississippi and Spanish in Florida, and both able to support the local Indians against British/colonist expansion then the viewpoint would probably be that larger garrison forces are needed. This might increase tension if the colonists are still unwilling to contribute to their defence.


The Hessians - to my knowledge - were mercenaried by their prince because he could not hold up his lavishly versaillesque lifestyle without lots and lots of money. I do not see this changing, especially considering that they fought against France in the 7 years war, so they'd be even more pressed for money.
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I had the impression it had a longer history than that, due to the relative poverty of the region but could be wrong.


That sounds interesting. Could you elaborate on the local troops bit a little more, please?
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Just remembering reading a reference once that the government asked the colonists to either contribute to the cost of the troops needed to defend the colonies or to raise their own troops to do the task. Must admit that was a couple of decades ago so can't remember any more details.
 

Kabraloth

stevep, you make good points and I will adjust the TL accordingly. Expect the next update to be about the UK building up a new coalition (plus the whole P-L business).

Meanwhile, attached are the current French gains in the Austrian Netherlands (I did not find a good basemap after all).

Unbenannt.JPG
 
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