What if Bill Clinton had lost his bid for re-election in 1996? Bob Dole is elected President. What would the years 1997 to 2001 have been like under a Dole Presidency? Would Dole have sought re-election in 2000? Would he have been re-elected in 2000? Had he been re-elected, what would Dole's second term have been like? How would he have handled things like 9/11, terrorism, etc? Who then would have been elected President in 2004?
Clinton loses re-election, Robert Dole is elected President in 1996?
- Thread starter The Mists Of Time
- Start date
Offering Dole up for President was really more of an act of respect more than anything else. Republicans anticipated a loss for the '96 election.
But, if Dole had been elected President, I can't imagine that 1997-2001 would have been much different for the USA....well, no Clinton impeachment trial obviously. But...that's about it.
But, if Dole had been elected President, I can't imagine that 1997-2001 would have been much different for the USA....well, no Clinton impeachment trial obviously. But...that's about it.
What was the Dole platform, anyways? I was too young to know back then.
Things that come to mind include:
Not as much pressure for an Iraq War.
If 9-11 happens, Clinton won't get as much blame for not hunting Osama down. Heck, Dole could be blamed by Democrats instead while Republicans still blame Clinton.
Perhaps some defense programs (Brilliant Pebbles?) aren't cut.
Things that come to mind include:
Not as much pressure for an Iraq War.
If 9-11 happens, Clinton won't get as much blame for not hunting Osama down. Heck, Dole could be blamed by Democrats instead while Republicans still blame Clinton.
Perhaps some defense programs (Brilliant Pebbles?) aren't cut.
Yeah it's hard to see Dole winning, and it's much harder to see him controlling Gingrich.
Which is kinda sad because I think Dole would have been a decent president earlier, but by '96 it really was just giving the guy the respect of the nomination. He certainly might do a good job, but I can't see him above average.
Who's the Democrat for 2000? Al Gore would have a fight for the nomination this time if he wanted it I imagine, and I doubt that Dole can offer much more then even odds in the general so plenty of Democrats would be interested.
Which is kinda sad because I think Dole would have been a decent president earlier, but by '96 it really was just giving the guy the respect of the nomination. He certainly might do a good job, but I can't see him above average.
Who's the Democrat for 2000? Al Gore would have a fight for the nomination this time if he wanted it I imagine, and I doubt that Dole can offer much more then even odds in the general so plenty of Democrats would be interested.
Actually I could see Dole winning. If Perot doesnt win his 8 million votes and they all go to Dole then the popular vote is almost tied.
Even with out this, it would only take a change of 618,073 votes from Clinton to Dolein just eight states to be elected even with Perot still in the race. (0.64% of the national vote).
The states that change are:
Kentucky (8 elec votes), 6,666 votes
Nevada (4 elec votes), 2,366 votes
Arizona (5 elec votes), 15,608 votes
Tennesse (11 elec votes) 22,809 votes
Florida (25 elec votes), 151,168 votes
Missouri (11 elec votes), 67,960 votes
Ohio (21 elec votes), 144,170 votes
Pennsylvannia (23 elec votes), 207,326 votes
RESULT:
DOLE & KEMP 39,816,828 ELEC VOTE: 270
CLINTON & GORE 46,784,284 ELEC VOTE: 268
So Dole would have been smashed in the popular vote by 6,967,456 votes but still would have won the election.
If you thought the Dems moaned in 2000, imagine if they lost this election in these circumstances.
Could Clinton try and stage a rematch in 2000? If he's not reelected in '96 then he would not have the whole Lewisky scandal hanging over his head, and no 22nd Amendment either and if Gingrich basically ran the government, people might actually be longing for the good old days of Clinton.
Yes, but Cleveland was over a century ago. And the Democratic party has become much less forgiving for those who fail at the presidency than the Republicans. If Clinton were to lose reelection despite the incumbancy advantages, then I doubt that the Dems would put him back in the saddle unless they lacked any other candidate.
Brilliant Pebbles was gone by 1994, which is a pity considering how close it was to being deployable.
Dole might be able to resurrect it, however, since a lot of the infrastructure, personnel, etc would still be there.
Here's some background material:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Dole
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_1996
Perhaps Dole runs a better campaign and focuses on reviving the "bimbo eruptions" (Clinton's affairs) that troubled Clinton's earlier political campaigns? Making a bigger deal out of Communist Chinese money flowing to the Democratic Party might also help.
Dole might be able to resurrect it, however, since a lot of the infrastructure, personnel, etc would still be there.
Here's some background material:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Dole
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_1996
Perhaps Dole runs a better campaign and focuses on reviving the "bimbo eruptions" (Clinton's affairs) that troubled Clinton's earlier political campaigns? Making a bigger deal out of Communist Chinese money flowing to the Democratic Party might also help.
How about another possible GOP candidate in 1996...Colin Powell?
OTL, there was a lot of talk about a possible presidential run following his retirement from the Army, especially around the time of the publication of his autobiography, but he put the kibosh on that in late 1995. What if he decides running is worth a shot? If Clinton doesn't have as much success with "triangulation" and stealing Republican thunder in 1995-96 and if Gingrich and his crew don't play into the Administration's hands with things like falling for the government shutdown, might he be in a weak enough position to make a Powell run plausible?
-Joe-
OTL, there was a lot of talk about a possible presidential run following his retirement from the Army, especially around the time of the publication of his autobiography, but he put the kibosh on that in late 1995. What if he decides running is worth a shot? If Clinton doesn't have as much success with "triangulation" and stealing Republican thunder in 1995-96 and if Gingrich and his crew don't play into the Administration's hands with things like falling for the government shutdown, might he be in a weak enough position to make a Powell run plausible?
-Joe-
I don't know, Powell strikes me as a fairly moderate man. It is possible that even if he ran for the nomination in '96 he would have been opposed by the more conservative elements of the Republican Party. Maybe Powell and Dole do a deal. Dole runs for the Presidency in '96 with Powell as the VP, and in 2000 steps aside in favor of his running mate. In fact this might be the POD that lets Dole win the election.
It is well known that the Republicans approached Powell to run in 1996, he was interested but his wife asked him not to run either as President or Vice President.
The Dems believed he was the only Republican would could have beaten Clinton in 1996. I think with a strong running mate to please the right of the party he would have smashed Clinton.
Powell's reluctance to run may be the one big factor proving he'd be a great President, IMHO. They had to drag Washington kicking and screaming, and he turned out a great start. Oh well, we have to settle for these turkeys...
Don't forget, Franklin wanted to make the Turkey our national mascot. After all, Eagles are carrion birds that run away, but Turkeys are birds that always defend their homes.
As for Washington, he was the right person for the right time. His morality and firm conviction were excelent for setting the precedents that our nation runs on. But I'm not sure how well he would work today. You don't get anywhere in politics today without effort, he'd be all but unelectable.