WI: Vikings raid Rome

SinghKing

Banned
One of the most famous Viking raids was Hastein's voyage to the Mediterranean (859-862AD), having set out with Björn Ironside, another son of Ragnar Lodbrok with 62 ships from the Loire. At first the raiding did not go well, with Hastein being defeated by the Asturians and later the Muslims of the Umayyad Caliphate of Córdoba at Niebla in 859. Success followed with the sacking of Algeciras, where the mosque was burned, and then the ravaging of Mazimma in the Idrisid Caliphate on the north coast of Africa, followed by further raids into the Umayyad Caliphate at Orihuela, the Balearic Islands and Roussillon.

Hastein and Bëorn wintered at Camargue island on the mouth of the Rhone before ravaging Narbonne, Nîmes and Arles, then as far north as Valence, before moving onto Italy. There they attacked the city of Luna. Believing it to be Rome, Hastein reputedly had his men carry him to the gate, telling the guards that he was dying and wished to convert to Christianity. On the following day, he feigned death, and he was allowed to be carried in through the gate in a coffin by 50 robed members of his entourage (concealing swords under their robes), in order to be taken to the town's church for his Christian last rites and burial. Hastein then jumped from his coffin and chopped off the religious leaders' heads, before leading his men to open the gates from the inside, and set about ransacking the city.

So, I heard about this story, and it got me wondering. What if Hastein and Bëorn had actually got their bearings right, and had proceeded to the actual city of Rome instead in an ATL, to carry out their brazen attack in a similar fashion? Could they have possibly pulled it off, and succeeded in the same way that they did in the city of Luna IOTL? And even if they hadn't succeeded, how much damage and destruction could they have wrought upon the city of Rome at this time? And if these hugely important Viking raiders did die in their attempt, how would the butterflies affect the course of history from this point forth?
 

SinghKing

Banned
There is no way that 50 men could sack a city as large or as guarded as Rome.

The fifty men allegedly opened the gates from the inside. Thousands of men participated in the ransacking. And even if they do die in their doomed attempt on the real city of Rome, what would be the long-term repercussions of the Viking Mediterranean raiding party being lost with all hands?
 
There is no way that 50 men could sack a city as large or as guarded as Rome.

Although I agree with him that about Rome itself, I point out that perhaps there was a confusion of numbers.

OP didn't say that the entire expedition contained 50 men. Actually, he says that 62 ships left the Loire - which is a fairly large expedition for its time.

Let's suppose a number of 35-50 ships manage to survive the hardships of the trip and reach the Rhone river (we do know that the Vikings really avoided pitched battles because the numbers were important), considering that the average tripulation was about 30 men, we get about 1050 to 1500 raiders. I myself consider this figure a bit exaggerated, but let's presuppose it's accurate.

Now, for mere speculation, let's suppose they get to Rome.

Well, I doubt that they can do more than plundering or burning some countryside churches. If they managed to use some ploy to enter the walled city, the damage will surely be greater, but still they will face opposition from the defenders, and perhaps with the element of surprise a number of them can sail away with the booty.

For comparison, if this gives OP some ideas, OTL Rome was sacked twice close to this time period:
- By the Arabs in 846 [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_raid_against_Rome]
- By the Normans in 1084 [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sack_of_Rome_(1084)]

While they were particularly destructive, both involved far more numerous forces and, on the case of the Arabs, they attacked only the Vatican because at the time it had no protective walls.

About the probable deaths of Haestein and Bjorn, I really don't know about the political history of Scandinavia to be certain, but I do remember that Bjorn is listed among the earlier Swedish monarchs. If he perishes, thus, no Münso dynasty for Sweden.
 

SinghKing

Banned
Although I agree with him that about Rome itself, I point out that perhaps there was a confusion of numbers.

OP didn't say that the entire expedition contained 50 men. Actually, he says that 62 ships left the Loire - which is a fairly large expedition for its time.

Let's suppose a number of 35-50 ships manage to survive the hardships of the trip and reach the Rhone river (we do know that the Vikings really avoided pitched battles because the numbers were important), considering that the average tripulation was about 30 men, we get about 1050 to 1500 raiders. I myself consider this figure a bit exaggerated, but let's presuppose it's accurate.

Now, for mere speculation, let's suppose they get to Rome.

Well, I doubt that they can do more than plundering or burning some countryside churches. If they managed to use some ploy to enter the walled city, the damage will surely be greater, but still they will face opposition from the defenders, and perhaps with the element of surprise a number of them can sail away with the booty.

For comparison, if this gives OP some ideas, OTL Rome was sacked twice close to this time period:
- By the Arabs in 846 [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_raid_against_Rome]
- By the Normans in 1084 [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sack_of_Rome_(1084)]

While they were particularly destructive, both involved far more numerous forces and, on the case of the Arabs, they attacked only the Vatican because at the time it had no protective walls.

About the probable deaths of Haestein and Bjorn, I really don't know about the political history of Scandinavia to be certain, but I do remember that Bjorn is listed among the earlier Swedish monarchs. If he perishes, thus, no Münso dynasty for Sweden.

There is that, yes. In terms of founding dynasties, only Björn Ironside had a lasting legacy and heritage IOTL, going on become the first ruler of the Munsö dynasty. But from the looks of things, while Hastein himself didn't leave a line of ancestors, establish his own dynasty, he's arguably the one who had the bigger impact on the course of history. Here's a description of what the two of them did IOTL, after the raid on the city of Luna:

Flush with this victory and others around the Mediterranean (including in Sicily and North Africa) Hastein and Bjorn returned to the Straits of Gibraltar only to find the Saracen navy from Al-Andalus waiting for them. In the desperate battle that followed, they lost 40 ships, largely to a form of Greek fire launched from Saracen catapults. Even so, they still managed to ravage Pamplona, before returning home to the Loire and Scandinavia respectively with the remainder of the fleet, some 20 ships- enough to enable Bjorn to live out his life as a rich man.

For his part, settled back in Brittany, Hastein allied himself with Salomon, King of Brittany against the Franks in 866, and as part of a Viking-Breton army, killed Robert the Strong at the Battle of Brissarthe near Châteauneuf-sur-Sarthe. In 867 he went on to ravage Bourges, and a year later attacked Orléans. Peace lasted until spring 872, when the Viking fleet sailed up the Maine and occupied Angers, which led to a siege by the Frankish king Charles the Bald and a peace being agreed in October 873. Hastein remained in the Loire country until 882, when he was finally expelled by the Charles and then relocated his army north to the Seine. There he stayed until the Franks besieged Paris and his territory in the Picardy was threatened. It was at this point he became one of many experienced Vikings to look to England for riches and plunder.

Hastein first crossed to England from Boulogne in 892, leading one of two great companies. His army, the smaller of the two, landed in 80 ships and occupied the royal village of Milton in Kent, whilst his allies landed at Appledore with 250 ships. Alfred the Great positioned the West Saxon army between them to keep them from uniting, the result of which was that Hastein agreed terms, including allowing his two sons to be baptised, and left Kent for Essex. The larger army attempted to reunite with Hastein after raiding Hampshire and Berkshire in the late spring of 893, but was defeated at Farnham by an army under Prince Edward, Alfred's son. The survivors eventually reached Hastein's army at Mersea Island, after a combined West Saxon and Mercian army failed to dislodge them from their fortress at Thorney.

The result left Hastein in command of a formidable Danish army at his fortified camp (or burh) at Benfleet in Essex, where he combined the men and ships from Appledore and Milton. He set out on a raid in Mercia, but whilst the main army was away, the garrison was defeated by the bolstered militia of eastern Wessex. The West Saxons captured the fort, along with the ships, booty, women and children- including Hastein's own wife and sons. This was a major blow for Hastein, who then re-established his combined force at a new fort at Shoebury further north in Essex, and received reinforcements from the Danish Kingdom of East Anglia and the Scandinavian Kingdom of York. He also had his two sons returned to him, since Alfred and Athelred had stood sponsor at their baptism early in 893.

Next, Hastein launched his men on a savage retaliatory raid along the Thames valley, then up the River Severn. It was pursued all the way by Aethelred of Mercia and a combined Mercian and West Saxon army, reinforced by a contingent of warriors from the Welsh kingdoms. Eventually the Viking army was trapped on the island of Buttingham on the Severn near Welshpool, but they fought their way out several weeks later, albeit losing many men in the process, and returned to the fortress at Shoebury. In late summer 893, Hastein's men struck out again. First, they moved all their booty, women and ships in East Anglia (to avoid a repeat of what had happened at Benfleet) and after being reinforced, marched to Chester to occupy the ruined Roman fortress. The refortified fortress should have made an excellent base for raiding northern Mercia, but the Mercians took the drastic 'Scorched Earth' measure of destroying all crops and livestock in the surrounding countryside to starve the Danes out.

In the autumn the besieged army left Chester, marched down to the south of Wales and devastated the Welsh kingdoms of Brycheiniog, Gwent and Glywysing until the summer of 894. They returned via Northumbria, the Danish held midlands of the Five Burghs, and East Anglia to return to the fort at Mersea Island. In the autumn of 894, the army towed their ships up the Thames to a new fort on the River Lea. In the summer of 895 Alfred arrived with the West Saxon army, and obstructed the course of the Lea with forts on either side of the river. The Danes abandoned their camp, returned their women to East Anglia and made another great march across the Midlands to a site on the Severn (where Bridgnorth now stands), followed all the way by hostile forces. There they stayed until the spring of 896 when the army finally dispersed into East Anglia, Northumbria and the Seine, and Hastein disappeared from history, by then an old man having already been described as "the lusty and terrifying old warrior of the Loire and the Somme".

So, whose absence from the TL (due to their premature death) do you think would actually create more butterflies? That of Björn Ironside, or that of Hastein? And if they did succeed in raiding the city of Rome (almost certainly taking heavy losses in the process, but with these heavier losses, as opposed to their virtually non-existent losses to this stage IOTL, convincing them to head straight back home instead of engaging the Saracen Navy after the Straits of Gibraltar), what could the butterflies be? How much wealthier would their raid on the Mediterranean have made Hastein and Bjorn ITTL, and how much more powerful would they have been as a result? Could Hastein have even succeeded in cementing his rule over all or most of West Francia, butterflying the future OTL nation of France away in the process? After all, if Hastein's that much wealthier ITTL, then would Charles the Bald's own wealth still be capable of purchasing his own retreat, and of his expeditionary forces, as he was forced to do IOTL after being defeated by Hastein and his Viking forces in the region repeatedly IOTL? Or, would Charles the Bald either be forced to concede defeat in his attempts to drive the Viking invaders out of West Francia, or simply be slaughtered by Hastein and his forces after failing to generate the increased ransom demanded ITTL to facilitate their free withdrawal?
 
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