What if Islam never spread out of Arabia?
- Thread starter Harald Sigurdson II
- Start date
Obviously, Zoroastrianism remains strong, the Turkic and Mongol invasions convert to something else, Hinduism and Buddhism aren't challenged by a strong monotheistic rival in the East...
As for the two empires, the relevant question is in the reverse: what must change with them so that they keep the Khalifas stuck in Arabia?
My obvious answer is their last war should be shorter and less even. Then they're not both exhausted when the Arabs attack.
As for the two empires, the relevant question is in the reverse: what must change with them so that they keep the Khalifas stuck in Arabia?
My obvious answer is their last war should be shorter and less even. Then they're not both exhausted when the Arabs attack.
The Arab invasion was by no means an inevitable event, it may have been improbable for nothing to happen, but all you have to do is keep the Caliphs from pulling the trigger on a mounted military effort.
But to answer the question, Islam spreads by trade if at all. More indonesia like conversion rather than the more conquest driven conversion of OTL. Christianity remains in dominance in Africa, possibly spreading into West africa, same goes for Kilwa and the rest of Africa's East coast.
The consequences to Christian Europe's attitude towards infidels will be major, no crusades, no mass invasions from seemingly nowhere to feed paranoia and xenophobia (at least in the south, northmen could still happen and fuck over the Anglish). Not to mention that Charlemagne never comes to power, that means much of north germany is much strongly pagan than OTL, seeing as no Battle of Tours to feed the Carolingians standing amongst the Franks. Visigoths survive, that keeps the balance of power in the West mediterranean from swinging too far to the Franks. Rhomanion is able to recover their man power and hopefully rebuild Italy following the Gothic War.
So, so much to think about if the Muslims just stay in Arabia. None of this even scratches the politics in central asia with a surviving Persian Empire.
I'm not so sure. One of the main reasons why Islam spread so successfully through trade was because Dar al-Islam was so large and rich. If Islam remains in Arabia, there's far less incentive to try so hard to trade with them. I think an important question is whether or not the Muslims manage to wrest Muscat from the Sassanids.
Probably Nestorian Christianity will be more widespread than OTL. There were many converts in Persia at the time, and they would reach India and China too. While I'm not sure how sucessful they would be the Eastern Church will remain a greater voice within Christianity.
by butterfly, maybe the Arabian Peninsula's Jewish population makes it out, a Jewish Bedouin diaspora...
Islam would be quite different from IOTL.
It may still spread trough missionary activity, trade etc., quite likely with a focus to Africa, but Islamic tradition as we know it is pretty clearly the product of the encounter between the Prophet's message and some specific cultural traditions, mainly 8although not exclusively) those encountered outside Arabia by the early Muslims. It was in the context of a relatively sudden and quite extensive contact with Christians, Jews, Mazdeists and others across the Fertile Crescent, Egypt and Iran that the Qur'an was largely collated (although, in all likelyhood, not composed) and the corpus of prophetic tradition initially established, and that the intellectual trends to interpret and analyze both began to take shape. Assuming that an Islamic state with some cohesiveness remains in Arabia alongside Sassanid Persian and a mostly intact Eastern Roman Empire (which I don't see as a very likely situation), this formative process would happen under entirely different dynamics where, for instance, some Arabian (specifically South Arabian) tradition may appear a more appealing reference (problem is, we know precious little about pre-islamic South Arabian intellectual life).
The text of the Qur'an will probably be more or less the same, (although possibly arranged differently, which is significant in itself) but the way to interpret it, in a context where early Muslim relate very differently to Jewish and Christian exegetical approaches, may be very, very, far from anythimg we know about.
It may still spread trough missionary activity, trade etc., quite likely with a focus to Africa, but Islamic tradition as we know it is pretty clearly the product of the encounter between the Prophet's message and some specific cultural traditions, mainly 8although not exclusively) those encountered outside Arabia by the early Muslims. It was in the context of a relatively sudden and quite extensive contact with Christians, Jews, Mazdeists and others across the Fertile Crescent, Egypt and Iran that the Qur'an was largely collated (although, in all likelyhood, not composed) and the corpus of prophetic tradition initially established, and that the intellectual trends to interpret and analyze both began to take shape. Assuming that an Islamic state with some cohesiveness remains in Arabia alongside Sassanid Persian and a mostly intact Eastern Roman Empire (which I don't see as a very likely situation), this formative process would happen under entirely different dynamics where, for instance, some Arabian (specifically South Arabian) tradition may appear a more appealing reference (problem is, we know precious little about pre-islamic South Arabian intellectual life).
The text of the Qur'an will probably be more or less the same, (although possibly arranged differently, which is significant in itself) but the way to interpret it, in a context where early Muslim relate very differently to Jewish and Christian exegetical approaches, may be very, very, far from anythimg we know about.
They did IOTL. And they had a generally more than decent relationship with Muslim authorities for a very long time. However, I concur that a stronger nestorian christianity is very likely ITTL.
It wasn't called fitna, but Abu Bakr had to fight to reassert his authority as Muhammad's successor.*
* Some historians, most notably Patricia Crone, have raised doubts of the historicity of Abu Bakr's caliphal tenure. I don't think any argument on the point particularly compelling, but I use to this note that in our understanding of early islam there are some quite significant problems.
Most importantly commerce across the Mediterranean continues and there is not what Pyrenne called "the great break" with antiquity.
This will be quite beneficial to the Mediterranean countries, both on the north and the south shore: North Africa will certainly remain integrated in the Christian world, and the same will be true for Egypt and Syria (although monophysite belief might result in a schism of the Egyptian and Syrian church if the ERE gets in trouble.
I don't think the Visigoths will become a major player anyway, also in consideration of the Byzantine presence in the south-east. However the continuation (and possibly the increase) of Mediterranean traffic should play in favor of Southern France and Italy (in the latter, different things might happen:
from a strong Lombard kingdom through the re-establishment of WRE to a full Byzantine reconquest of Italy; the last is the least likely IMHO, and a successful Frankish invasion and dominance is also very hard to manage ITTL).
The Franks should come out weakened by the presence of a more prosperous "Occitania" and it is quite possible that the tradition of dividing the kingdom among the king's sons goes on unabated.
This will be quite beneficial to the Mediterranean countries, both on the north and the south shore: North Africa will certainly remain integrated in the Christian world, and the same will be true for Egypt and Syria (although monophysite belief might result in a schism of the Egyptian and Syrian church if the ERE gets in trouble.
I don't think the Visigoths will become a major player anyway, also in consideration of the Byzantine presence in the south-east. However the continuation (and possibly the increase) of Mediterranean traffic should play in favor of Southern France and Italy (in the latter, different things might happen:
from a strong Lombard kingdom through the re-establishment of WRE to a full Byzantine reconquest of Italy; the last is the least likely IMHO, and a successful Frankish invasion and dominance is also very hard to manage ITTL).
The Franks should come out weakened by the presence of a more prosperous "Occitania" and it is quite possible that the tradition of dividing the kingdom among the king's sons goes on unabated.
This would happen they are quite interesting to research in otl.
Catholics were quite happy to pillage pagans, Jews and Orthodox Christians in our timeline. I imagine they'd see the Eastern Church as much more of "the other" in the absence of Islam.
Of less importance, but no Arab conquests mean no Battle of Talas, and no foreign force in Central Asia (excluding the natives) to stop Tang expansion. The later Tang probably had gunpowder, could there have been a quicker diffusion of gunpowder, possibly visiting Europe before South Asia?
SpamBotSam
Banned
The revolution in Iran wouldnt have happened, and Iran's religious majority would mostly be Zorastrian today.
All of that, plus the technological butterflies. The arabians made great leaps in math and science, and helped to keep some roman knowledge alive. We may be significantly behind tech wise unless someone in ATL take their place.
The Schism hasn't even been finalized yet at this point. Heck Chaledonian Chrisianity was to busy dealing with other heresies like Arianism.
Caesar Biden
Banned
Except Rome will still be a Mediterranean-spanning empire that will most certainly keep up in tech and knowledge. Even if they lose Italy and much of North Africa, as long as Rome keeps Egypt and Anatolia they will be a superpower and influence everything from Nestorian Chinese to Picts.
Honestly, with less of an East-West divide, tech could be more advanced, not just in Europe, but around the world.
Wasn't the civil war between Ali and Muawiyuh called a fitna?
Maybe then Abu Bake loses the Ridda Wars as a POD.