Wi: Operation Sealion is a plausible TL
- Thread starter Bismarck
- Start date
MrP
Banned
Well, eliminate the German capship prog and you've freed up enough steel for either transport ships to cross the channel or a few years' supply of tanks. Building the transports clues the RN into what Hitler has planned, though. So Britain could be better prepared. She'll still have to build the KGVs because of Japan, but she could also have a greater number of destroyers to sink transports.
:sigh:
There are just some things that don't die...
Anyway the only really good timeline that I have seen that does a plausible 'sealionesque' invasion was Mr. Bluenote's Goring is dead TL.
There are just some things that don't die...
Anyway the only really good timeline that I have seen that does a plausible 'sealionesque' invasion was Mr. Bluenote's Goring is dead TL.
Put simply Sealion requires the following points if it even has a chance to succeed. Mind you I only rate it as a chance...
There are other points, but these are the essential ones.
- Germany needs 200 plus U-Boats operating a blockade of the UK from late 1939 onwards
- The Luftwaffe doesn't go off bombing London etc, but sticks to its original plan of going after the RAF
- The Luftwaffe has an dedicated anti-shipping wing.
- The Kreigsmarine has Bismarck & Tirpitz ready to act as the centre pieces to a battlefleet (including the 2 battlecrusiers, 2 pocket battleships, & the 2 old WWI battleships) operating in the Channel.
- The Germans do a D-Day & land at Ramsgate instead of Dover.
There are other points, but these are the essential ones.
The planned landing at Dover was just idiotic to say the least. A landing at Dover was exactly what the British were expecting, just like four years later the Germans were expecting a landing at the Pas de Calais for the allied landings in France, its the shortest distance across the channel and has ready access to deep water ports that could be captured. Mind you, all of this rests on the fact that the RAF is swept from the skies. However, I doubt that High Command is that stupid as to allow all of the RAF coastal command and their fighters to be totally wiped out, they'll pull them back to Scottish airfields and wait for the invasion.
An other problem, the Royal Navy. Most of their fleet is in Scapa Flow, and can be sortied with less then an hour's call. With the entirety of the RN coming towards an invasion fleet composed of...Rhine River Barges and escorted by the German Surface Fleet. I don't care how big the guns on your ships are, or how much air superiority you have, the RN is going to mop the floor with the German Surface Fleet, hands down. From there, the Luftwaffe is going to be launching attacks against a fleet which has prepared from WWI onwards to repel air attacks. Your odds just got a little worse.
From there, if by some miracle, the Rhine River barges make it to their designated landing places, and they get soldiers on the beaches, now you have the entire British Army, along with the civilian Home Guard volunteers to deal with, along with a very hostile population. Along with that, you can bet that after the RAF pulls their fighter and bomber squadrons back to Scotland they'll have more then made up for their losses during the Battle of Britain, and by the time that the landings in the South-East have begun, they'll have already started a second round of air combat with the Luftwaffe, with rested and fresh pilots who are just waiting for some revenge for the Battle of Britain.
Put all that into place: A prepared Army and Home Guard, the rebuilt numbers of the RAF, the Royal Navy, and the determination of Churchill and the British peoples to repel the German invasion, the answer speaks for its self. Sealion is implausable, and should it have been attempted it would not have worked.
An other problem, the Royal Navy. Most of their fleet is in Scapa Flow, and can be sortied with less then an hour's call. With the entirety of the RN coming towards an invasion fleet composed of...Rhine River Barges and escorted by the German Surface Fleet. I don't care how big the guns on your ships are, or how much air superiority you have, the RN is going to mop the floor with the German Surface Fleet, hands down. From there, the Luftwaffe is going to be launching attacks against a fleet which has prepared from WWI onwards to repel air attacks. Your odds just got a little worse.
From there, if by some miracle, the Rhine River barges make it to their designated landing places, and they get soldiers on the beaches, now you have the entire British Army, along with the civilian Home Guard volunteers to deal with, along with a very hostile population. Along with that, you can bet that after the RAF pulls their fighter and bomber squadrons back to Scotland they'll have more then made up for their losses during the Battle of Britain, and by the time that the landings in the South-East have begun, they'll have already started a second round of air combat with the Luftwaffe, with rested and fresh pilots who are just waiting for some revenge for the Battle of Britain.
Put all that into place: A prepared Army and Home Guard, the rebuilt numbers of the RAF, the Royal Navy, and the determination of Churchill and the British peoples to repel the German invasion, the answer speaks for its self. Sealion is implausable, and should it have been attempted it would not have worked.
Redbeard
Banned
The problem for Sealion was not transport capacity to get the German army or its supplies across, that was available in abundance, no matter what Kriegsmarine told - to be sure Sealion wasn't launched and would be blamed for its failure.
The problem wasn't the British Army, which at that time hardly was able to fight in a Divisional context. With 10 German Divisions across UK would be doomed, perhaps even less would be enough.
The major problem was securing and keeping sea and air control over the crossing zone.
We can't PoD that problem out by just letting the Germans start a huge naval build-up much before, as that will only have the British follow suit - and probably put an end to Hitler in the mid 30's. But perhaps an earlier recognition of the importance of co-operation between Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine plus of course the necessary technological and doctrinal prerequicites could provide a Luftwaffe actually capable of stopping the Royal navy. The He111 and Ju88, which were operational by the 100's in 1940, later proved to be a capable torpedobomber. So let say 300 He111 and Ju88 be trained and equipped as torpedobombers, give the Bf109 and Bf110 droptanks (long range escorts - which also wins BoB for Luftwaffe) and you have a very powerful anti ship force. For comparison 80 landbased torpedobombers and levelbombers overwhelmed two fast battleships in 1941 in the South China Sea.
I believe such a "German Coastal Command" programme would be easier to start up secretly and accelerate faster than a traditional naval programme.
In OTL the Germans only have the summer of 1940 to prepare Sealion, that simply wasn't enough for a sound operation of that magnitude. But had the Wehrmacht been ordered by mid 1939 to prepare the eventuality of invading England there would have been plenty of time to prepare the technicalities of crossing, landing and supplying.
That would however have required the Germans and not at least Hitler to be much better to predict events than they were in the late 1930's. So instead of being shocked over the British and French declaration of war in 1939 and finding out that the German stocks of artillery ammo had been emptied during the Polish campaign, he by 1938/39 realises, that UK needs to be taken out and is unlikely to be so by sweettalking.
How about Chamberlain still giving in in Munich 1938, but in a way not leaving any doubt in Hitler about this being the last chance. Desperately short of cash and Lebensraum he doesn't quit his Polish plans but aquires an unshakeable belief in the superiority of his armed forces. We probably also need some Guderian of the naval air power, somebody who can convince Hitler and whoever commands Luftwaffe (Göring will make it up-hill) that levelbombing is ineffective and effective anti ship strike requires both training and co-operation with (and subjection to) naval forces.
By mid 1940 the Germans have prepared transportable ramps over which to land motorvehicles (RO-RO), commandeered railway/car ferries and hulks to provide wavebreakers. A number of seagoing stormboats have also been prepared to land the tropps that secures the bridgeheads in the first hours
The Kriegsmarine has a very potent minelaying capacity and the Uboats are mainly coastal types ideal for operating in the North Sea and the Channel.
BTW withdrawing the RAF to nothern bases will not stop Sealion. It will only mean the Germans overcomming their main problem, that of sea and air control, much easier. And once the German army is across, nothing can stop them.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
The problem wasn't the British Army, which at that time hardly was able to fight in a Divisional context. With 10 German Divisions across UK would be doomed, perhaps even less would be enough.
The major problem was securing and keeping sea and air control over the crossing zone.
We can't PoD that problem out by just letting the Germans start a huge naval build-up much before, as that will only have the British follow suit - and probably put an end to Hitler in the mid 30's. But perhaps an earlier recognition of the importance of co-operation between Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine plus of course the necessary technological and doctrinal prerequicites could provide a Luftwaffe actually capable of stopping the Royal navy. The He111 and Ju88, which were operational by the 100's in 1940, later proved to be a capable torpedobomber. So let say 300 He111 and Ju88 be trained and equipped as torpedobombers, give the Bf109 and Bf110 droptanks (long range escorts - which also wins BoB for Luftwaffe) and you have a very powerful anti ship force. For comparison 80 landbased torpedobombers and levelbombers overwhelmed two fast battleships in 1941 in the South China Sea.
I believe such a "German Coastal Command" programme would be easier to start up secretly and accelerate faster than a traditional naval programme.
In OTL the Germans only have the summer of 1940 to prepare Sealion, that simply wasn't enough for a sound operation of that magnitude. But had the Wehrmacht been ordered by mid 1939 to prepare the eventuality of invading England there would have been plenty of time to prepare the technicalities of crossing, landing and supplying.
That would however have required the Germans and not at least Hitler to be much better to predict events than they were in the late 1930's. So instead of being shocked over the British and French declaration of war in 1939 and finding out that the German stocks of artillery ammo had been emptied during the Polish campaign, he by 1938/39 realises, that UK needs to be taken out and is unlikely to be so by sweettalking.
How about Chamberlain still giving in in Munich 1938, but in a way not leaving any doubt in Hitler about this being the last chance. Desperately short of cash and Lebensraum he doesn't quit his Polish plans but aquires an unshakeable belief in the superiority of his armed forces. We probably also need some Guderian of the naval air power, somebody who can convince Hitler and whoever commands Luftwaffe (Göring will make it up-hill) that levelbombing is ineffective and effective anti ship strike requires both training and co-operation with (and subjection to) naval forces.
By mid 1940 the Germans have prepared transportable ramps over which to land motorvehicles (RO-RO), commandeered railway/car ferries and hulks to provide wavebreakers. A number of seagoing stormboats have also been prepared to land the tropps that secures the bridgeheads in the first hours
The Kriegsmarine has a very potent minelaying capacity and the Uboats are mainly coastal types ideal for operating in the North Sea and the Channel.
BTW withdrawing the RAF to nothern bases will not stop Sealion. It will only mean the Germans overcomming their main problem, that of sea and air control, much easier. And once the German army is across, nothing can stop them.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
Maybe have France do a Italy and turn full traitor- not having their fleet destroyed.
Sure it wouldn't be a match for the British but it would keep us on our toes a little bit...
I suppose I'll go the opposite way to what everyone else are saying and say if it happens later it could work- give the Germans victory over the Soviets then finally invade Britain. Have no big surface ship program to give them more submarines, have the Americans be genuinly neutral, etc...
Sure it wouldn't be a match for the British but it would keep us on our toes a little bit...
I suppose I'll go the opposite way to what everyone else are saying and say if it happens later it could work- give the Germans victory over the Soviets then finally invade Britain. Have no big surface ship program to give them more submarines, have the Americans be genuinly neutral, etc...
Bismarck said:
Assuming Goring immediately targets the RAF and never diverts, heres how.
These get built in 1939 as a precaution by Hitler. At least 1,000 will need to be built just to get a beach head. http://www.german-navy.de/kriegsmarine/ships/landingcrafts/mfp/index.html
In addition, a few hundred of these. http://www.german-navy.de/kriegsmarine/ships/landingcrafts/afp/index.html
Student will have to land his forces in the night to secure bridges and Airfields so Luffwaffe fighters can land at dawn and get refueled and in the Air quickly to cover the beaches and Transport planes.
Hitler talks to Mussolini and has him coordinate his Declaration of War with his Merchant Marine in safe Harbors. That way they can be used to support the Landing.
Finally the Kriegsmarine must sortie at the time of the Landing along with the Italian Navy to draw off the British Navy. They don't have to win, they just have to keep the British from reaching the Invasion Beaches. U-Boat Captains are to hit all military shipping and ignore anything else.
What follows is a brutal campaign in which Churchill will use gas and Germany will retaliate. Churchill will fight for every inch of soil he can untill he is killed. Then what happens is an enraged Hitler will punish a prostrate Britain severly. Not a pretty site.
Hello.
I agree that Sealion is a very difficult work apart of the clear need that the germans needed a clear plan before the World War II to make an invasion of England (and have to be a well done plan), DMA, General_Paul, Redbeard and Thomas G have depicted the principal problems and needs of what is necessary to make Sealion not only a possible (unless that Germans love the suicide), also a succesful invasion.
Some ideas that can help a little to have more possible Sea Lion:
1. Not Scandinavian Campaign (assuming that allies decides not to implement plans of invading Narvik before the german invasion -so another POD the allies prefers to respect the neutrality of Norway-) or a very succesful one: this means that germans have 3 cruisers, 10 destroyers, 6 submarines, 30 transports and 200 aircraft that are not lost and available to a possible invasion of Norway.
2.As say by DMA Bismarck and Tirpitz are finished and could enter in action by the time of Sealion invasion I would add that Graf Zeppelin is also finished (some more help)
3.No Dunkerke: British army is effectively destroyed (not only the materiel also the men).
These three thing could help a little
I agree that Sealion is a very difficult work apart of the clear need that the germans needed a clear plan before the World War II to make an invasion of England (and have to be a well done plan), DMA, General_Paul, Redbeard and Thomas G have depicted the principal problems and needs of what is necessary to make Sealion not only a possible (unless that Germans love the suicide), also a succesful invasion.
Some ideas that can help a little to have more possible Sea Lion:
1. Not Scandinavian Campaign (assuming that allies decides not to implement plans of invading Narvik before the german invasion -so another POD the allies prefers to respect the neutrality of Norway-) or a very succesful one: this means that germans have 3 cruisers, 10 destroyers, 6 submarines, 30 transports and 200 aircraft that are not lost and available to a possible invasion of Norway.
2.As say by DMA Bismarck and Tirpitz are finished and could enter in action by the time of Sealion invasion I would add that Graf Zeppelin is also finished (some more help)
3.No Dunkerke: British army is effectively destroyed (not only the materiel also the men).
These three thing could help a little
Iñaki said:
No. 1 would save a couple of hundred transport aircraft and most of a parachute regiment.
No. 3 would most probably depend on the Germans NOT altering plans for the campain in France, but rely on a modified Schleiffen plan, pushing the Allied armies south, making a Dunquerque near to impossible. But then this would make for a prolonged campain in France and...
The Luftwaffe didn't like the idea of supporting the navy being thus subordinated, much like the airforces of France and Britain disliked supporting the army. But for different reasons - Luftwaffe was designed to support the army, the airforces of France and Britain for strategic bombing.
I suspect that the previous poster meant that France 1940 proceed as OTL, except that the german army would NOT pause once the BEF was surrounded on the beach. Rather than letting just the Luftwaffe 'destroy' the Brits, let the jerries throw everything at them. It would have caused thousands of causualties for the germans, but removed hundreds of thousands of Brits (including nearly all of their long-service veterns).arctic warrior said:
In OTL, Hitler was still seeking a peace accord with Britain, but suppose his megalomania kicked in a bit earlier, and he sought all-out war a bit sooner. Without the BEF troops, and the emotional value of the 'miracle of Dunkirk', the Brits would have been a much softer target (and the Germans just a bit more 'invinceable').
This might not have made a sea-lion successful, but it would have made a serious ATTEMPT at it more likely!
Many many things needed
For a plausible Sea Lion
1] A larger German destroyer fleet possibly a better cheaper DD design. The Germans had 2 concepts for destroyers the big and fast Z and the much smaller T (an olf fashioned torepdo boat not to be confused with an S Boot).
A goldilocks boat in between would be better and they need about 3 dozen.
2] And they should avoid wasting them at Narvik (probably the whole Narvik portion of the Norwegian invasion can be done without if they hold the south of Norway the north is a nuisance but it can wait)
3] While we are on Norway better torpedoes would help attrit the RN
4] While we are on the topic of torpedoes they need topedo bombing capability. A combination of a He111 variant plus a Gruppe of Fw187.
5] They do NOT need Graf Zeppelin. That is a waste of resources
6] They need Bismarck. Tirpitz would be nice too.
7] They need Gneisenau and Scharnhorst ready for action to kill cruisers and destroyers
8] They need drop tanks for the Me109. A solution to the hub firing cannon problem would be nice too
9] The air campaign needs to start sooner and with better focus. Goering dawdled.
10] Holding back on using magnetic mines so the RN doesn't learn to counter them. Also they were just starting to deploy acoustic mines in late 1940. A full scale production of those could've been useful.
11] Both Kesselring and Sperrle wanted to precede the daylight offensive with a large night assault but were overruled by Goering. As this would be the period before the RAF knew how to neutralize knickebein it could have had some utility.
12] Luftwaffe intelligence learns that the Supermarine factory near Southhampton is making Spitfire airframes (IIRC for a while it was the only factory making those)
13] Actually the best scenario for Dunkirk to help Sea Lion is not a complete early destruction but a partially successful evacuation during which the Luftwaffe inflicts greater losses on the RN DD than historical.
14] The Macksey Scenario (Jul) is too early but Sept is too late. I believe there was a window of tides and decent weather in August which would make it preferable
15] DMA"s Ramsgate plan is better than the historical one. One thing to point out though is there are versions of Sea Lion where the Germans can occupy most of Kent against British counterattacks but are unable to make an effective breakout.
16] A 1,000 MFP LC would be nice but I without arcane knowledge it make no sense for Hitler to approve it (and there is the question of affording. We are in the realm of Speer working economic miravcles). Hitler might be convinced of the utility of 300 for ops in the Baltic like Operation Albion of WWI.
17] There was a German staff officer in the Heer who was working on using hyrofoils for Sea Lion. There is a learning curve here and I am not sure how practical it would've been.
18] Destroy the CH and CHL radar sites
18] Bombing London by day eventually is not a complete mistake. The trick is to vary it with raids on London (target the docks and Rail stations) with raids on Sector Stations so Fight Command doesn't know what you're doing and has to be able to defend London. In OTL Kesselring largely (not completely) abandoned attacks on the sector stations. Also raids on London will goad Churchill into forcing Bomber Command to raid Berlin bu night in strength which is actually their least effective use at this time.
Anyway do ALL of the above (OK #17 is optional) the odds for Sea Lion are:
1] 40% complete failure
2] 20% get cordoned off in Kent (may help in negotiating but probably not)
and 40% complete success
For a plausible Sea Lion
1] A larger German destroyer fleet possibly a better cheaper DD design. The Germans had 2 concepts for destroyers the big and fast Z and the much smaller T (an olf fashioned torepdo boat not to be confused with an S Boot).
A goldilocks boat in between would be better and they need about 3 dozen.
2] And they should avoid wasting them at Narvik (probably the whole Narvik portion of the Norwegian invasion can be done without if they hold the south of Norway the north is a nuisance but it can wait)
3] While we are on Norway better torpedoes would help attrit the RN
4] While we are on the topic of torpedoes they need topedo bombing capability. A combination of a He111 variant plus a Gruppe of Fw187.
5] They do NOT need Graf Zeppelin. That is a waste of resources
6] They need Bismarck. Tirpitz would be nice too.
7] They need Gneisenau and Scharnhorst ready for action to kill cruisers and destroyers
8] They need drop tanks for the Me109. A solution to the hub firing cannon problem would be nice too
9] The air campaign needs to start sooner and with better focus. Goering dawdled.
10] Holding back on using magnetic mines so the RN doesn't learn to counter them. Also they were just starting to deploy acoustic mines in late 1940. A full scale production of those could've been useful.
11] Both Kesselring and Sperrle wanted to precede the daylight offensive with a large night assault but were overruled by Goering. As this would be the period before the RAF knew how to neutralize knickebein it could have had some utility.
12] Luftwaffe intelligence learns that the Supermarine factory near Southhampton is making Spitfire airframes (IIRC for a while it was the only factory making those)
13] Actually the best scenario for Dunkirk to help Sea Lion is not a complete early destruction but a partially successful evacuation during which the Luftwaffe inflicts greater losses on the RN DD than historical.
14] The Macksey Scenario (Jul) is too early but Sept is too late. I believe there was a window of tides and decent weather in August which would make it preferable
15] DMA"s Ramsgate plan is better than the historical one. One thing to point out though is there are versions of Sea Lion where the Germans can occupy most of Kent against British counterattacks but are unable to make an effective breakout.
16] A 1,000 MFP LC would be nice but I without arcane knowledge it make no sense for Hitler to approve it (and there is the question of affording. We are in the realm of Speer working economic miravcles). Hitler might be convinced of the utility of 300 for ops in the Baltic like Operation Albion of WWI.
17] There was a German staff officer in the Heer who was working on using hyrofoils for Sea Lion. There is a learning curve here and I am not sure how practical it would've been.
18] Destroy the CH and CHL radar sites
18] Bombing London by day eventually is not a complete mistake. The trick is to vary it with raids on London (target the docks and Rail stations) with raids on Sector Stations so Fight Command doesn't know what you're doing and has to be able to defend London. In OTL Kesselring largely (not completely) abandoned attacks on the sector stations. Also raids on London will goad Churchill into forcing Bomber Command to raid Berlin bu night in strength which is actually their least effective use at this time.
Anyway do ALL of the above (OK #17 is optional) the odds for Sea Lion are:
1] 40% complete failure
2] 20% get cordoned off in Kent (may help in negotiating but probably not)
and 40% complete success
Just how long does everyone think it would take to subdue England, assuming the Germans had organized units on-shore in Dover? Everyone seems focused on 'supply' and 'logistics' and 'the eventual victory by the RN'.Tom_B said:
France, with Britain still in the fight, crumbled in two weeks from the point of having 'the world's best army'. Britain's morale is at an all-time ebb, and the 'German War Machine' seemingly unbeatable.
A full military victory may not have been required. The mere presence of grey-uniformed troops may have been enough. If Germany was somehow able to repulse the RN's first sortie without TOTAL Kriegsmarine losses, who knows?
Germany didn't want occupation anyways. They wanted britain to ask for terms. Sea-lion need not win a military total victory to give Hitler what he wanted: Britain out of the war, so he could focus on the 'Red horde'.
Whether or not they have organised units on shore is somewhat irrelevent in my view. It all depends if they can push off those beaches.
If the RN and RAF can atleast contest the channel, this isn't a given by any means. Assuming the British can get men and equipment to Dover before these divisions can push inland they may well be stuck there. With difficulties bringing in more men and a general lack of heavy equipment, vehicles and supplies the German divisions may well be forced to surrender or withdraw. To my knowledge there Wehrmacht doesn't have any paticular knowledge of naval landings and if anything Norway was only saved by a level of ineptitude on the part of the allies.
If they do push inland then I suspect resistance would crack pretty quickly. Although it depends on whose view you take. Churchill seems to have desired every Briton to fight to the death meanwhile unleashing gas and god knows what else upon the invader. If even a tenth of the population were willing to do so, then resistance may be possible.
Unfortunately, I suspect such is more patriotic wishful thinking than anything placed in reality. That said I would hope that there would atleast be a battle for London if not other Cities and they would not go gentle into that good night...
If the RN and RAF can atleast contest the channel, this isn't a given by any means. Assuming the British can get men and equipment to Dover before these divisions can push inland they may well be stuck there. With difficulties bringing in more men and a general lack of heavy equipment, vehicles and supplies the German divisions may well be forced to surrender or withdraw. To my knowledge there Wehrmacht doesn't have any paticular knowledge of naval landings and if anything Norway was only saved by a level of ineptitude on the part of the allies.
If they do push inland then I suspect resistance would crack pretty quickly. Although it depends on whose view you take. Churchill seems to have desired every Briton to fight to the death meanwhile unleashing gas and god knows what else upon the invader. If even a tenth of the population were willing to do so, then resistance may be possible.
Unfortunately, I suspect such is more patriotic wishful thinking than anything placed in reality. That said I would hope that there would atleast be a battle for London if not other Cities and they would not go gentle into that good night...