Down the Road to Defeat: The 1952 US Presidential Election and Beyond

DOWN THE ROAD TO DEFEAT



It's hard for many people in Western Democracies to understand how exactly the Democrats managed to win their sixth successive term in the White House. Despite a record of restoring prosperity to the United States after the New Deal and taking the nation to victory in the Second World War, the party was beginning to suffer from a serious case of incumbency fatigue after their near constant dominance of all levels of the American legislature for twenty years. By 1952 America was stuck in an endless and bloody conflict in Korea whilst red scares and allegations of corruption had caused people to become skeptical or even aggressive towards the New Deal bureaucracy that the Democrats were inevitably associated with. President Truman was so unpopular that even his own party seemed unlikely to renominate him. In such a climate it seemed that a Republican victory was all but guaranteed.

Salivating over a victory that they could almost taste the parties different factions fought viciously over who would claim the prize of the Republican nomination. Senator Robert Taft, the staunch isolationist and leader of the parties conservative wing, was considered the early and clear favourite to clinch the nomination. However his path to victory hit a significant roadblock with the entrance of Dwight D Eisenhower into the race. The popular and charismatic hero from the Second World War had only recently revealed his Republicans political leanings after being courted by both major parties. Immediately he was contacted by Thomas Dewey, twice failed Republican presidential nominee, leader of the GOP's moderate wing, and Taft's political nemesis, who begged him to stand for the nomination. Convinced that Taft's isolationism could unwittingly give the Soviets a dangerous advantage on the global stage, Eisenhower entered the race.

Eisenhower's popularity and charisma turned out to be an even match for Taft's experience and influence, after several intense primary battles both were evenly matched going into the convention. With the approaching ballot promising a narrow Taft edge, the Eisenhower campaign began to protest that Eisenhower delegates were being displaced in states with pro-Taft leadership, Dewey proposed a 'fair play' motion to evict Taft delegates in the southern states involved, which would have left both camps effectively equal in delegates. It is not known what happened next, although rumours have varied between delegate annoyance about a sudden change to the agenda to Taft darkly threatening to run an independent campaign if he were to lose, the proposal died before it could gain momentum. Eisenhower supporters were not going down lightly however, and several arguments were seen on the convention floor, sometimes even breaking out into fist fights between Taft and Eisenhower supporters. Such behaviour motivated many of those yet undecided state delegations to side with Taft. Knowing he had the edge, it was hoped that by making it clear that Taft would win, some order might be restored. Though this had the desired effect, with Taft winning the nomination on the third ballot, the moderates would remain bitter throughout the campaign. Despite Taft's attempt at reconciliation by backing moderate Massachusets Governor Leverett Saltonstall as his vice presidential nominee, the rift caused by the convention would be terminal for Taft's campaign.

The 1952 Democratic National Convention was relatively calm, especially compared to the chaos and walkouts of four years beforehand. The Democrats remained split on who to nominate, the main contenders being either too old, far left or right, or simply too maverick for the party leadership to be acceptable, however there was one candidate agreeab;e to all. Adlai Stevenson, the witty and intellectual Governor of Illinois, was the most acceptable choice. Despite being reluctant to accept the nomination, his support continued to grow, especially after his well received welcome to the conventioneers in Chicago, and he finally acquiesced to having his name put forward on the ballot. Soon found himself making another speech, accepting the Democratic Presidential nomination. For Vice President the Democrats chose John Sparkman, a southern conservative and segregationist, who was successful in appeasing the Dixiecrat wing of the party.

Despite lagging behind in the polls, the appearance of the Democrats as united once more compared to the violent Republican convention would become symbolic of the 1952 campaign. Refusing to accept that he was doomed to defeat, Stevenson toured the country with his charismatic speeches being met with large audiences. Taft on the other hand was plagued by moderate Republican apathy to his candidacy, and relentless attacks against his isolationist position which led to the common Stevenson campaign slogan 'For a Peace that won't leave us in Pieces', referring to the Korean War. Despite his intelligence, Taft was hampered by his boring and uninspiring style of speaking compared to the strong Stevenson campaign. Similar to 1948, commentators began to speculate on whether or not the Republicans were being over complacent as the polls showed a narrow race.

It would be the intervention of Eisenhower that would spell the fatal blow to Taft's candidacy however. Having remained relatively quiet during the fall campaign, his endorsement of Stevenson and warning against Taft's isolationism in the final week before polling was a devastating blow to the Republican campaign. With Eisenhowers warning ringing in their ears the voters went to the polls, and their verdict was a catastrophe for the GOP. Close, but not close enough, Taft had failed to defeat the New Deal coalition he had fought against for so long. Like four years beforehand, the Republicans had once again snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.



1952 Presidential Election

Stevenson/Sparkman 310 EV
Taft/Saltonstall 221 EV ​

The 1952 Democratic platform had been fairly moderate in its ambitions, basically endorsing the programs continued by the Roosevelt and Truman administrations such as continuing farm subsidies, expanding programs to give children a free school lunch, and help for the disabled and elderly. The major divergence was in the Korean War, Stevenson had moderately defended the war at the convention, however with the aim of concluding a ceasefire he would make Korea his first foreign visit in April 1953. By the end of the year he could claim his first foreign policy success with an armistice that finally ended the bloody stalemate. His administration was less successful in talks with the Soviets over disarmament in Europe, since the war US nuclear superiority had matched Soviet conventional superiority. The aim of Soviet Premier Nikita Kruschev to accelerate Soviet nuclear production created a fear that the USSR might soon match the US in terms of nuclear weapons whilst retaining a significant advantage in conventional weapons, something Stevenson sough to limit. Kruschev had initially been open to negotiations on limiting nuclear weapons, but not at the cost of the reduction in Soviet divisions in Eastern Europe, which he argued would leave his Warsaw Pact allies defenceless. The successful detonation of the first Soviet Hydrogen Bomb was, privately, a major failure for Stevenson.

Nonetheless domestically American was entering into a post-war economic boom. Rising GDP, combined with the G. I. Bill which had provided a well educated workforce of over 2 million Americans, had created a swelling middle class. Trade unions were also growing, aided by the successful repeal of Taft-Hartley, which Stevenson had pushed through congress with the aid of Sparkman's wooing of southern Democrats. The administration remained quietly positive about civil rights, Brown vs the Board of Education had given a constitutional basis for integration yet it's implications were not yet fully realised. Whilst never addressing him directly Stevenson had successfully done battle against the rhetoric of McCarthy, and his late 1954 censure by the senate had effectively destroyed his political career. Countering revelations of his alcoholism, McCarthy's argument that there were now federal conspiracies against him, only served to underline the growing image of a paranoid and bitter individual. For many the period was truly a golden age, and the Democrats went into 1956 confident that they could re-elect Stevenson by flaunting their economic and domestic record.

The Republicans were facing an uphill struggle in 1956. Many of the advantages they had in 1952 had been circumvented by the Stevenson administration, economic times were good, the war in Korea was over and McCarthyism was now something the party had to distance themselves from. Incumbency fatigue remained but had become something of a double edged sword, many were tired of the Democrats but a vast amount of first time voters had never lived under a Republican administration and even more doubted what the party now stood for. This worry was decisive in why the party would go on to nominate Richard Nixon in the summer of 1956. Nixon was young, but experienced and transcended the bitter Taft-Eisenhower split better than many candidates, which the party had been trying to move on from for so long. For Vice-President Nixon backed Harold Stassen, who had ran for the Presidential nomination in the last four cycles, Stassen's liberal Republican nature made him a 'safe' choice emphasising the parties evolution to accepting the New Deal.

During the fall campaign the Democrats hailed their economic success whilst the Republicans admitted it, but emphasised the need for change to ensure future economic growth. The Stevenson campaign argued instead for the extension of social programs to embed American prosperity. Fearing that too many Americans viewed Stevenson as a safe pair of hands and saw little need for a change, Nixon went on the offensive in regards to foreign policy, accusing Stevenson of appeasement. The Republicans declared that Stevenson had been weak on the Suez crisis, Democrats countered that Nixon wanted to destroy the concept of collective security by alienating the British and French. It would be after the Soviet invasion of Hungary however, that Stevenson would truly show his mettle. His angry confrontation with Soviet representative Valerian Zorin, where he publicly demanded to know how many civilians would die in the Soviet invasion, famously taunting "Don't wait for the translation" at the Russian who spoke excellent English. Stevenson had made the case that he was the man for the job in a crisis, as well as a safe pair of hands, the American public agreed.



1956 Presidential Election

Stevenson/Sparkman 303 EV
Nixon/Stassen 228 EV ​

Though Stevenon's verbal sparring with the Soviets came to little more than that, his failure to achieve multilateral disarmament left him with a clear goal ahead in facing the Soviets. During his inauguration speech he revealed a new strategy to the American people:

"Many opponents of this administration have warned us that the only path to peace is the constant threatening of our opponents with nuclear devastation, I say this is but a sign of weakness. To pursue this policy we would be admitting a false truth, that the American army would have to resort almost immediately to any threat with our most powerful weapon because our army would be so easily licked by that of the enemy. In my coming administration I wish to dispel this myth once and for all. Let us no longer fear that ours is no longer the most powerful army in the world, let mothers and wives no longer worry about the idea that their boys will be licked in a war by the other side. There is a Tank Gap ladies and gentleman, but not for long"

Stevenson's 'Tank Gap' policy covered many areas for the President, it was a message to the Republicans that they would no longer have the comfort of sitting on the sidelines talking about how the Democrats weren't tough enough on defence. It was a message to Kruschev that if he wasn't willing to talk disarmament then Stevenson would find other ways to restore the balance in Europe and around the world. It created a basis for his aim of full employment, areas in depression would face a draft into either factories or the army where they would be able to access useful work. It also allowed further investment in science with the aim of an army that was qualitatively the best in the world. Through this he met Wehrner Von Braun, the brilliant German scientist who had a dark but impressive past in building rockets for the Third Reich. Von Braun's stories of space stations which could win wars instantly by bombarding enemy bases and airfields with tungsten rods, free from the evils of radiation and mass civilian casualties, led to the creation of the USSF, the United States Space Force, where Von Braun and other brilliant minds were put to work on the first American satellite.

Despite what many feared would be an escalation in Cold War tensions, Stevenson maintained a policy of harmony abroad. Working on the basis that the US actively aiding regimes that were imperialist or fascist would drive the locals to the Soviets, America opened up dialogues with left-wing nationalist leaders such Fidel Castro of Cuba whilst criticising the Diem regime of South Vietnam for it's anti-democratic actions. When in June 1957 America became the first nation to launch an artificial satellite into space, Stevenson hailed the triumph of the American ideal.

However, domestically the American economy began to face slowdown. By 1958 unemployment was on the rise and Stevenson had failed to balance the budget, whilst the work drafts provided a security it was argued even by Keynesian economists that this was artificial. Civil rights was also beginning to cause problems for the Democrats, the refusal of Arkansas Governor Orval Faubus to accept the integration of Little Rock had almost required the intervention of federal troops before the personal intervention of Vice President Sparkman, a fellow segregationist who argued that he had evolved on the matter. Faubus, a personal friend of Sparkman's, stood down after a personal guarantee from the Vice President that there would be no further civil rights legislation from any administration he was part of. Controversially Stevenson remained quiet on the issue as Faubus slowly reversed his pledge to stand by the school boards decision.

Despite achievements abroad, the stagnating domestic situation and fatigue from many Democrats after over 27 years in the federal government, it looked again like a Republican year. Many joked that commentators had been predicting Republican landslides ever since 1946 but change was in the air, respectable pollsters pointed to the computers, which ever since the Univac 1 had correctly predicted the Presidency. Now the Binary codes pointed to the fact that virtually any Republican could win in 1960. Symbolically, high profile Democrats expected to run sat out the race, waiitng for 1964 when they hoped Democrat chances might improve. John Sparkman took the nomination easily, with formerly independent senator Wayne Morse accepting the Vice Presidential nomination. Sparkman hoped that Morse's maverick persona might reinvigorate the party to clinch yet another victory.

The Republicans, fearing that yet another defeat might be fatal for the party, focused themselves entirely on the idea of electability, looked for a popular moderate, any moderate, that could win. Answering their calls came New York governor Nelson Rockefeller, a New Deal Republican with firm liberal credentials. Despite a strong insurgent campaign by Conservative Arizona senator Barry Goldwater, the support of Rockefeller by the party hierarchy and his support from independents had left little doubt that he would clinch the nomination. For Vice President he also made a maverick choice, Ronald Reagan, the actor and former Democrat, was used as a perfect symbol of what Rockefeller announced as the 'New' Republican party. Reagan had little experience outside of his leadership of the Screen Actors Guild, however his charisma endeared him to the American public.

With Sammy Davis Jrs' famous 'Things Can Only Get Better' as their campaign jingle, the Rockefeller campaign radiated positivism and energy which outdid Sparkman's southern charm. Rockefeller preached New Deal rhetoric, outflanking Democrats who tried to compare him to Hoover. Meanwhile his strong stance on civil rights embarrassed many northern Democrats into silence. With the centre ground occupied by the Republicans, and the economy continuing to stagnate, Rockefeller won a landslide victory. The Grand Old Party had finally found it's way out of the wilderness.

Almost.




1960 Presidential Election

Rockefeller/Reagan 413 EV
Sparkman/Morse 106 EV ​