Interesting times indeed!
Max Sinister said:
So instead of the triangle Habsburg vs. France vs. Britain, we'd get the square Austria vs. France vs. Britain vs. Spain. Would make European politics more interesting. (And you know what the Chinese say about interesting times.)
It could indeed be interesting, though perhaps not too much different from our OTL. MaxIIEmanuel will probably still ally with France...in order to further his aim of bringing the Imperial title to the Wittelsbach. When this occurs though is the "?".
1698, Charles II initially named Joseph Ferdinand as heir. I haven't been able to determine if this was in spite of the first partition treaty or it over rode it.
I am thinking it is in response to the Spanish desire to maintain the Empire intact.
This effectively cuts both the Habsburgs and the Bourbons out of the inheritance. They may not accept that. This is Louis the XIV afterall, though it is hard to see him finding common cause with the Habsburgs to enforce the terms of the first partition treaty over the objections of the Spanish nobility.
However if he were to do so, this would pit Max Emanuel against France (whom he will later need the support of if he is to obtain his objectives within Germany vs the Habsburgs) and Austria. Provided they keep their objectives and the theatre to the Italian possessions...Britain and the United Prov. are not likely to intervene directly..as they both supported the Partition treaty.
Spain is likely to lose then and Max could lose his own duchy as well perhaps.
I doubt that max, considering his ambitions towards the Imperial title is going to hazard that. He will cut a deal some how that preserves the peace and preserves the fiction of the integrity of the empire for the Spanish nobles.
So lets see....Max, with the support of British and Dutch diplomacy gets his own version of a pragmatic sanction so to speak. Naples and Sicily will fall Phillip of Anjou, and he is removed from the French line of succession or he will abdicate his rights there back to the crown (of Spain) or in favour of the next eligible Bourbon in the line of succession not of his issue, as twin duchies within the Spanish empire. Charles receives Milan under the same conditions. Josef Ferdinand is removed from the line of succession to the Duchy of Bavaria in favour of his younger brother Charles Albert.
The Brits and Dutch for their support in the matter, both receive the priviledge of the Asiento in Spanish America.
This preserves the peace for now and at least on paper preserves the integrity of the Spanish Empire while throwing bones to both the Habsburgs and the Bourbons that they might be able to use later.
The main change then now is that the 3rd northern war becomes the principle area of conflict and the maritime powers and Austria potentially now have greater freedom of action to intervene.
I am just not sure what course that might take. Austria could support Saxony, but perhaps not openly right away as that might threaten to get the French involved, and thus the English and the Dutch..and while Sweden is fighting of the Danes and the Saxon-Poles and the Russians....The Saxon poles don't immediately seem to need much help.
Similiarly The French, largely allies of the Swedes may not act immediately either, though they may encourage the action of the historical Anglo Dutch support of the Swedes that caused the exit of the Danes While not openly moving against Saxony at that time. So the first part of the war probably goes as OTL. Denmark exits in 1702 when the Swedes land in Sjaelland.
the tricky part is what comes next. When karl XII finds it difficult to remove Frederick Augustus from the Polish throne in favour of Stanislaus Leszczynski The French could very well act in concert with Bavaria to march on Saxony itself, saving Karl the trouble. This will bring the Austrians in and it will be probably just before Leopold dies or shortly after so Max Emanuel could stand for election as Emporer as well. Where would the Anglo Dutch fit in this scenario is a question mark.
The Spanish netherlands are not a theatre so the Dutch and English interests will be dominated by their commercial and strategic interests in the Baltic. They are likely to support the Swedes, at least with supplies and naval support, as supporting a Danish re-entry would bring up the prospect of them regaining both shores of the Oresund..Something neither wants to see.
They also do not want to see the Russians with a monopoly on the naval stores coming out of the Baltic, from Russia itself or from the Baltic provinces.
There is also the position of Brandenburg and Hannover to consider, absent the the Spanish war. The Swedish possessions in North Germany may not be neutralized or perhaps one or the other could come in on one side or the other. Mind you if the Anglo-Dutch are disposed towards Sweden then the Hanoverians and Brandenburgers will think twice about any move on Verden, Wismar or Pommerania.
Could we see the removal of the Wettins from power in Saxony as well as Poland? Say having Bavaria annex the Upper Palatinate and give a reduced Saxon duchy to the Wittelsbachs there. The remainder of Saxony going to Brandenburg to support Max's election in the aftermath of Leopold's death.
This should also finish things in Poland a little earlier for Karl XII so perhaps he concentrates on the Baltic provinces instead of the disasterous Poltava endeavour. Of course this could just as easily result in the same disaster as Poltava as Karl attempts to evict Peter from St.Petersburg. Russia will remain as the only opponent of the Swedes at this point. With the Wettins potentially out of the picture Leszczynski's position in the commonwealth is more secure, but just..those foundations are a bit shakey now. He will need his Swedish friends and the support of France and the maritime powers. But a member of the Commonwealth nobility will once again sit as King within Poland-Lithuania.
A couple of possible knock ons here....dynastically speaking... With Swedish control of the Baltic again...they are likely to annex the Duchy of Kurland and perhaps Polish Livonia. Karl's younger sister Ulrika Eleonora could be married to the Duke, Fredrich Wilhelm. In addition, Maria Leszczynska is unlikely to marry Louis XV ( provided he still reaches the throne) as it would have the potential to drag France into a war in the Commonwealth down the road, something Cardinal Fleury will want to avoid. That which made her attractive in OTL has the potential to not be the case here. So say she marries one of the Czartoryski's instead, August Aleksander would be closest in age I think. Is there potential to cement Stanislaus's reign and could we perhaps see reforms in the commonwealth earlier. Stanislaus lived a fairly long time so provided he lives as long, he could attempt to reform the workings of the Commonwealth particularly if he forms ties to the Czartoryskis and keeps the support of the Potockis. Can we get a viable Poland-Lithuania-Ruthenia perhaps with the reforms of the May Constitution thrown in forgood measure.
Probably not all at once but in piecemeal fashion over the course of Stanislaus reign and that of his successor, a Czartoryski probably?
Just a few more thoughts....
any input, or criticisms, revisions much appreciated....regarding the course of this Alternate northern war and perhaps War for the Imperial succession