Background for TL : Kaiser falls in love with U-boats, 1908

I am gather information for a possible time line where the Kaiser falls in love with U-boats, and German enters WW1 with about 100 U-boats. This will be my first time line, and i am not a sailor or naval architect. Please try to keep this in mind when you make comments. I plan to keep setup the U-boats as a separate command that reports directly to the Kaiser, and leave the surface fleet and land forces much the same as OTL, until indirect effects of the U-boats is felt on land. I also plan to not change A-H naval plans, and I will try to keep major diplomatic events the same until pre-war. To begin, i need help with the following questions.

1) I need a hero/villain for this story. I don't want him to be an existing major admiral from OTL, but preferably a well connected U-boat captain from OTL. It also helps a lot if this individual is politically connected and skilled, so please no Patton type personalities. I can make up a person, but i think it would be easier to use an existing person.

2) I want the U-boat forces to be a separate command that reports to the Kaiser. Is this ASB in pre-war Germany? The concept will be another one of Kaiser naval toys, except command by an aggressive, competent naval officer.

3) Does anyone know of a pre-war book about submarines? Sort of a naval Mahan for subs? I have found Mahan 1910 book on naval war in Europe, but i have not yet found a pre-war book where someone pushes the concept of submarines being a major naval weapon. It is ok if the assumptions of the book are wildly inaccurate, as long as the book is prewar. I also can only read English, not German.

Thanks.

BlondieBC said:

This will be my first time line, and i am not a sailor or naval architect. Please try to keep this in mind when you make comments.

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I always find it interesting when people write this. It is as tho you are saying that you are writing on a subject you know nothing about and you expect those who know the subject, back and forth, to give you free reign in creating a fantastic work of fiction with no basis in reality.

David S Poepoe said:

I always find it interesting when people write this. It is as tho you are saying that you are writing on a subject you know nothing about and you expect those who know the subject, back and forth, to give you free reign in creating a fantastic work of fiction with no basis in reality.

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No, I am not sure why your read it this way. I was attempting to state that I am not a naval architect, and I will not be doing radical redesigns of the ships, but instead concentrating on increased resources devoted to constructions of the ships. I also thought it was useful to tell people that I was not a sailor, and that i had not written a complete timeline before. In many time lines, people spend a lot of time replacing the engines on a plane with a different engine, and the like. I do not intend to do these type of activities unless absolutely necessary.

I have spent most of the days researching and reading pre-war books to get a feel for the flavor of thought in naval circles pre-war. It is unclear to my why you think I am asking you to do the majority of the work on the TL. I have also seen these type of threads before time lines appear, such as one recently on the interstate highway system in America and the 1950's policy on mass transit.

I am also unclear why you think i am writing a time line with no basis in reality. If I intended to just insert 200 Tango submarines into WW1, i would i have went to the ASB. I guess i need to provide some more details to the questions I listed.

1) I have an officer in mind who was a low ranking officer in WW1 and higher in WW2. I was simply asking if anyone knows off the top of their head another good candidate, especially one with political connections pre-WW2.

2) I know the Kaiser could be quite impulsive, and the Navy was largely driven by his ego-based decision process. What i was trying to ask specifically was about the German reporting structures. Is there some reason the Kaiser could not split the the submarine command into a separate branch of the military.

3) I am going through books for pre-war submarines. I was asking if anyone has any particular books they found most useful that were written before August 1914. I have asked these types of questions on other topics without getting such an emotional response.

And finally, I don't expect my first TL to be a masterpiece.

Well, anyway, have a nice holiday.

If you want advice, i say read, read, read.

You need to epxlain a few things before yu can write a plausible story about this. You need to clarify where 100 German U-boats came from in 1914. As well as their crew, fuel and ammo.

100 U-boats(type U-19? Type U-9?) in the Atlantic, north sea and Meditterranean kills the Royal Navy, they didn't have many defences against U-boats at that time, the Dreadnuoghts won't be surviving long. Shipping will on the list next, drying up the British supplies.

lionhead said:

If you want advice, i say read, read, read.

You need to epxlain a few things before yu can write a plausible story about this. You need to clarify where 100 German U-boats came from in 1914. As well as their crew, fuel and ammo.

100 U-boats(type U-19? Type U-9?) in the Atlantic, north sea and Meditterranean kills the Royal Navy, they didn't have many defences against U-boats at that time, the Dreadnuoghts won't be surviving long. Shipping will on the list next, drying up the British supplies.

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First how i am writing it, I am working on the broad concept which is finished. German will enter WW1 with about 100 U-boats, half deployed in German, half at various colonies. So the real POD i am interested in is basically, what happens if the German navy has twice as many U-boats in WW1. Once i am confident enough that the broad strokes are correct, I will write a year by year time line, that moves to month by month, then week by week. I am trying to stay in the mindset of someone looking forward without too much foreknowledge. Ideally no foreknowledge, if i do this correctly.

That's what i have been working on today. I have not made final decisions, but the broad outline is 1905 the Kaiser is reviewing his naval strengths, and sees the German Navy has 1 submarine, and that the British have 24. The Kaiser decides that he wants a U-boat force similar to the size of the British Navy. He does not know it yet, but he will end up with a fleet that is about 50% U types, 25% UB, and 25% UC. The U type is higher than historical, because once the planning starts for basing U-boats in the colonies, it will become rapidly apparent that only the U classes have enough range and speed for the more open waters of the South Atlantic, Western Indian Ocean, and Western Pacific. The annual construction cost will be under the cost of 1 Dreadnaught per year, and the fleet will never be substantially more than the British submarine fleet in size, until the war starts. The crew requirements are surprisingly modest compared to the construction costs. I plan to slightly increase the size of the appropriation bills instead of take the funds from Naval programs that exist in OTL. This is mainly a story telling decision to keep down the number of butterflies before mid-1914. So is the decision to slowly move the U-boat command to a largely autonomous command reporting to the Kaiser. The Kaiser impulsive, often-unwise nature is needed to allow me to do dramatic plot turns, should I chose to.

Today I spent most of the day reading 3 books by British Naval authors in the 1907-1911 time frame, one of who was the former commander of the British Med Fleet. After this books, I feel confident that the British will not respond to the German U-boat buildup because both the France and the USA has a lot more. Also, they viewed the U-boat as mostly a port defense weapon with some capability in confined waters, but of very low value in the open ocean, especially against fast moving ships, especially against superior British lead ships.

As Germany fleets exceeds 20 boats, she will begin to build a series of bases Cameroon, SW Africa, East Africa, then China. A full 1/4 of the total U-boats will be in China due to the "importance" of the Chinese harbor. After all, it is hard to change the Kaiser's mind.

Kaiser Wilhelm's not dumb enough to waste a full quarter of his U-boat fleet on defending Tsingtao. There's minimal Allied commerce to raid in the area, and Japan will capture it one way or the other. If they're really persistent, they can just march troops overland and onto the peninsula, bypassing a submarine defensive cordon entirely.

Color-Copycat said:

Kaiser Wilhelm's not dumb enough to waste a full quarter of his U-boat fleet on defending Tsingtao. There's minimal Allied commerce to raid in the area, and Japan will capture it one way or the other. If they're really persistent, they can just march troops overland and onto the peninsula, bypassing a submarine defensive cordon entirely.

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Yes, Tsingtao will fall, but depending on the details it may fall slower or take a bit more resources. I am a very long way from doing this battle, and as the time line develops, i am going year by year, but this is my current intention.

However, you are looking at it from a post war perspective. The Kaiser does not know for sure that Japan will enter the war, and a stronger fleet provides a deterrent to Japan attacking. When preparing battle plans, the Admiral will look at many war scenarios, just not one scenario. Tsingtao is under a naval governor, not the colonial administration because it is so "strategic" in OTL. Their is a substantial German land garrisons, and a few cruisers in OTL. The 20 submarines i plan to deploy provide protection for the harbor and make a close blockade impossible. From the pre-war books, submarines preventing a close blockade or bombardment by BB is a given. There will be 20 subs, 5 close support (UB), 10 open ocean subs (U), and 5 mining subs (UC). The UB will not leave the area unless the port is capture and are seen as coastal defense. The UC subs will go to either Hong Kong, or the Japanese inland Sea to lay mines in case of war. Depending on the decision of the local commander, the U boats will either defend Tsingtao or attack Hong Kong or the main Japanese Naval Bases. Also, there will be stockpiles at various pacific Islands and safely Neutral Countries to allow the U-boats to return home or to other colonies in case the port falls. These plans may seem foolish now, but they fit dead on with public naval thinking. One admiral thought basically that submarines made it risky to approach within 400 miles of a naval base and impossible to within 25 miles.

The total investment here is under 1500 additional men and 2 million British pounds of U-boats. Pre-war, U-boats were seen as the shield that protected ports much more than their actual use in WW1. The concept will be the Sword and Shield. The High Seas Fleet is the Sword that will win the decisive Mahan victory, and the U-boats are the shield for the naval bases and colonies.

I am doing the research now, but Hong Kong was a major trade port in this time period with large amounts of supplies bound for England proper. And I have a lot more work to do on the second concept, but the German admiral will try to think of every possible way to uses his subs near Singapore to cut the Indian Ocean from the Pacific. I am not saying he will be successful, but he will have the intention of doing it.

Forkbeard

I think Prince Heinrich (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Henry_of_Prussia_(1862–1929)) has a role in your story. The biggest stumbling block Grossadmiral Forkbeard's low interest in subs. You may also want to include Sir Arthur Conan Doyle. I really don't think a Mahanoidal tome on subs existed. You must remember that they were very new weapons and had a lot of teething problems esp. the earliest classes (http://www.uboat.net/wwi/)

BlondieBC said:

I am gather information for a possible time line where the Kaiser falls in love with U-boats, and German enters WW1 with about 100 U-boats. This will be my first time line, and i am not a sailor or naval architect. Please try to keep this in mind when you make comments. I plan to keep setup the U-boats as a separate command that reports directly to the Kaiser, and leave the surface fleet and land forces much the same as OTL, until indirect effects of the U-boats is felt on land. I also plan to not change A-H naval plans, and I will try to keep major diplomatic events the same until pre-war. To begin, i need help with the following questions.

1) I need a hero/villain for this story. I don't want him to be an existing major admiral from OTL, but preferably a well connected U-boat captain from OTL. It also helps a lot if this individual is politically connected and skilled, so please no Patton type personalities. I can make up a person, but i think it would be easier to use an existing person.

2) I want the U-boat forces to be a separate command that reports to the Kaiser. Is this ASB in pre-war Germany? The concept will be another one of Kaiser naval toys, except command by an aggressive, competent naval officer.

3) Does anyone know of a pre-war book about submarines? Sort of a naval Mahan for subs? I have found Mahan 1910 book on naval war in Europe, but i have not yet found a pre-war book where someone pushes the concept of submarines being a major naval weapon. It is ok if the assumptions of the book are wildly inaccurate, as long as the book is prewar. I also can only read English, not German.

Thanks.

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I'm still somewhat ignorant on the subject, but AFAIK the sub was still very untested and unreliable in 1908. Also it was not well liked by the fleet admirals, because it didn't offer admiral slots!
Also Wilhelm was wishy-washy. He'd fall into a passion and could very easily be talked out of it. He wanted a West Wall of forts in Alsace and to reform the army, but was talked out of it within days. Really its all about the people around him and none of them thought of Uboats as more than an auxiliary weapon to the fleet.

Sorry, but I cannot imagine a scenario pre-WW1 that would allow for 100 Uboats in 1914. In 1939 sure, but it would have major reprecussions.

Unless you can prove that submarines can do something outside coastal waters it would be difficult to get the Kaiser diverting much money from his dreadnoughts to unglamorous submarines.

If you do that then you have the problem that everyone else will know about it too. If the British know that the Germans are diverting money to U boats and that they are building ships more capable than OTL then the those in the RN pushing the submarine agenda will get a boost too.

By 1914 you have a better U boat fleet but you would get a Royal Navy better prepared too. To keep it secret would cost even more money and the Reichstag would want to know where their money is going.

As I have said before, you can't have German 'super threads' without accepting that every action produces a reaction.

Tom_B said:

I think Prince Heinrich (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Henry_of_Prussia_(1862–1929)) has a role in your story. The biggest stumbling block Grossadmiral Forkbeard's low interest in subs. You may also want to include Sir Arthur Conan Doyle. I really don't think a Mahanoidal tome on subs existed. You must remember that they were very new weapons and had a lot of teething problems esp. the earliest classes (http://www.uboat.net/wwi/)

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Thanks for the links.

Yes I know they were death traps, that is one of the big ways I plan to replace sub officers I don't like.

On Mahan, I read through his works, did not find anything hugely on topic. Submarines of the World's Navy's by Charles W. Domville-Fife was the best one I found. It has article by many British Naval Officers. Basically, they don't have a clue to use them besides the make close blockades impossible, and people will use all available means in a war of national survival. The horrors of the WW1 U-boat campaign is all there, if they just connected the last few dots.

I will look up Doyle, but I am rather surprise to think of him as a naval source.

http://books.google.com/ebooks/reader?id=U_k_AAAAYAAJ&printsec=frontcover&output=reader&pg=GBS.PA3

wiking said:

I'm still somewhat ignorant on the subject, but AFAIK the sub was still very untested and unreliable in 1908. Also it was not well liked by the fleet admirals, because it didn't offer admiral slots!
Also Wilhelm was wishy-washy. He'd fall into a passion and could very easily be talked out of it. He wanted a West Wall of forts in Alsace and to reform the army, but was talked out of it within days. Really its all about the people around him and none of them thought of Uboats as more than an auxiliary weapon to the fleet.

Sorry, but I cannot imagine a scenario pre-WW1 that would allow for 100 Uboats in 1914. In 1939 sure, but it would have major reprecussions.

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I thought that too at first, but by 1906 the British had over 24 boats built, and by 1910 they had over 62 boats built, and by the war, the had 86 boats of 16 classes. Now to be fair, quite a few sank, but the fleet was still a lot bigger than about the 40 boats the Germans had. The French were actually the leaders in submarines before the war. So, my POD is the Kaiser and the Naval admirals decide they want a submarine fleet in parity to the British or French, and this will get them near 100 boats. The boats are also pretty cheap at 50K to 110K pounds for the British models, so it is not a huge number, no more than 20 built in any given year. Now the 10 year old boats will be very long in the teeth, and of limited value.

The difference from WW2, is that this is not a rush planned, but a 10 year buildup with no naval limitation treaties. The budget cost is not trivial but the entire program is around 7.5 million British pounds over 10 years, and will consume 4000 sailors and say another 4000 support personnel. I am still working on the types of boats but don't have it nailed down. Or the way I am looking at it, two dreadnaughts worth of budget.

The big selling point is that Naval authorities believed submarines made a naval base almost unattackable, and that Port Arthur would not have happened if the Russians have subs. Whether or not this is true does not matter, it only matters that they believed it pre-war. Once it is in the naval budgets at an average of 10 or so boats per year, it will just keep getting funding each year. This is why i am avoiding reading post war analysis. I want to have the same beliefs as pre-war people did. I am trying not to implement any idea, if i can't find it in a 1913 or earlier work.

And to get around admiral slots, I will bring one up through the ranks. Otto Schultze. In my time line, he will be ready for the job, when an admiral job shows up. He his POD is being assigned to U-2 in 1905/06. He will make squadron commander when the total U-boat crews would not gun a main battery on a BB. After all, if there is 8 U-boats, someone is in charge. And the way these boats are, it will be lucky if 6 still float. They were death traps early on.

http://www.geocities.com/~orion47/WEHRMACHT/KRIEGSMARINE/Generaladmirals/SCHULTZE_OTTO.html

Devolved said:

Unless you can prove that submarines can do something outside coastal waters it would be difficult to get the Kaiser diverting much money from his dreadnoughts to unglamorous submarines.

If you do that then you have the problem that everyone else will know about it too. If the British know that the Germans are diverting money to U boats and that they are building ships more capable than OTL then the those in the RN pushing the submarine agenda will get a boost too.

By 1914 you have a better U boat fleet but you would get a Royal Navy better prepared too. To keep it secret would cost even more money and the Reichstag would want to know where their money is going.

As I have said before, you can't have German 'super threads' without accepting that every action produces a reaction.

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If you have a pre-war source to support that, I am very interested.

Some points of clarification. I am increasing the naval budget by about the cost of 2 BB over 10 years, so funds are not being diverted. I am spending about 7.5 million british pounds, and the annual budget for the Navy is near 50 million pounds or 500 million pounds in this time period. IMO, based on things I have read, a 1.5% increase in the naval budget will not have massive butterflies.

No one has a clue what U-boats can do, and the prevailing wisdom is that they are a defensive weapon only that can not sink a warship in open water at speed. One of the books said it would take "a miracle" to intercept a cruiser on the open ocean. They British will view this much more like some additional coastal artillery near the Kiel Canal, than a dreadnaught or a cruiser. We now know this is wrong, but these lessons are in the future. Mentally, I don't think anyone in power is emotionally ready to think about unrestricted submarine warfare.

The selling point is the belief that major naval base are 100% immune to surface bombardments or surprise attacks, and amphibious assaults are impossible. Germany will be spending 7.5 million pounds to safeguard several hundred million pounds of ships and facilities.

The British have a larger fleet of submarines until at least 1912 in this ATL, but they may increase the size of their submarine fleet too. I doubt they will increase the size of their DD fleet, because both the USA and French submarines did not cause this reaction.

I do appreciate feedback.

At first, uboat.net gives you many informations about the first Uboats and the first commanders. Anyway, there are some problems with this scenario. Sure, Germany could have built these boats, but it was too early. The first 18 boats were indeed not more than test boats, at least to a certain degree. Only from U-19 onwards you had real ocean going diesel propelled submarines. But they were not completed before 1913. That means they could not be tested before that date.

The Uboat arm was way too young. Also Germany was very late here. The reason however, was more the unreliablility and short ranges of the submarine than other factors. Indeed Tirpitz had denied to build or buy Uboats before 1906 as he wanted to have a weapon, which is reliable and had a certain useful range. The US, Britain and France had more boats, but most of them could be used only in own territorial waters. Tirpitz did not want to have them in this role. So only when the Germaniawerft was building the Karp class boats for Russia, the Germans finally ordered their first boat. Now the boats could be used at least in the British waters and had some capabilities.

Knowing this background you needed a PoD, which orders more boats in 1910. If 24 boats are ordered instead of six each year you could have 96 boats by the beginning of 1915 (plus 18 trial boats). However, that meant Germany had then 288 instead of 72 boats in 1920 (as planned in 1912).

What the British reaction was in return, I can only guess. But as they had greatly underestimated the danger of Uboats, which was also considered only as a weapon of the "weak", which are not "British" enough, I can think about a mild smile as only reaction. I think BlondieBC is right.

The Uboat arm could not be a new branch. That's not possible.

As for a commander with political relations, well, that will be a problem as most commanders were (and had to be) apolitical.

Adler

Was a submarine raid on Scapa Flow possible in the early stages of the war in 1914 with careless British Admirals not guarding things?

WI Britain, seeing Germany develop U-boats (as in this TL your writing), decides to deploy torpedo nets as countermeasures, and then, believing RN ships safe, becomes careless.

Assume the Germans actually conduct tests (Long range voyages) with these boats, and manages to improve the designs to become reliable.

Then, in the opening stages of WW1, 10 U-boats manage to sneak in and sink 50 vessels, including 20 battleships (OTL during the Dardanelles campaign, 3 british battleships were sunk, all with torpedo nets deployed), and then all escape, with no losses


OR is that ASB?

A massive sense of deja vu...

Whilst writing my HMS Heligoland TL I had the same problem of dealing with (initially) small torpedoes and (initially) small and unreliable submersible torpedo boats. Battleship-proofing a harbour called for heavy calibre naval guns. However...

By creating HMS Heligoland I produced a close-blockade of most of Germany's North Seas ports, the Admiralty ITTL regarding subs as cheapo substitutes for light cruisers in coastal waters. So an expanded German destroyer and U-boat force was feasible. However, German minelayers were a more troublesome weapon - OTL, hundreds of thousands of mines were laid in the southern North Sea.

There was hot argument over the feasibility of a battleship being sunk by a U-boat amongst my readers - I had based my writings on research into sinkings. By 1916, U-boats were capable of sinking merchant ships with torpedoes and had damaged warships. Read and see.

It was tried twice to enter Scapa Flow in ww1, both times it failed and the boat was destroyed. However, I think it is possible, Prien did it in 1939, but only for one boat. And this would have only 6 eels, enough to sink, at best, two enemy capital ships. Which would be a hard blow nonetheless.

Adler

????

Six eels? Is this a nickname for torps, fish, torpedoes etc?

corditeman said:

Six eels? Is this a nickname for torps, fish, torpedoes etc?

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probably torpedoes. IF I remember correctly, early U-boats were limited to 6 torpedos.

Adler17 said:

At first, uboat.net gives you many informations about the first Uboats and the first commanders. Anyway, there are some problems with this scenario. Sure, Germany could have built these boats, but it was too early. The first 18 boats were indeed not more than test boats, at least to a certain degree. Only from U-19 onwards you had real ocean going diesel propelled submarines. But they were not completed before 1913. That means they could not be tested before that date.

The Uboat arm was way too young. Also Germany was very late here. The reason however, was more the unreliablility and short ranges of the submarine than other factors. Indeed Tirpitz had denied to build or buy Uboats before 1906 as he wanted to have a weapon, which is reliable and had a certain useful range. The US, Britain and France had more boats, but most of them could be used only in own territorial waters. Tirpitz did not want to have them in this role. So only when the Germaniawerft was building the Karp class boats for Russia, the Germans finally ordered their first boat. Now the boats could be used at least in the British waters and had some capabilities.

Knowing this background you needed a PoD, which orders more boats in 1910. If 24 boats are ordered instead of six each year you could have 96 boats by the beginning of 1915 (plus 18 trial boats). However, that meant Germany had then 288 instead of 72 boats in 1920 (as planned in 1912).

What the British reaction was in return, I can only guess. But as they had greatly underestimated the danger of Uboats, which was also considered only as a weapon of the "weak", which are not "British" enough, I can think about a mild smile as only reaction. I think BlondieBC is right.

The Uboat arm could not be a new branch. That's not possible.

As for a commander with political relations, well, that will be a problem as most commanders were (and had to be) apolitical.

Adler

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Basically, I plan to introduce each new class of U-boats about a year earlier than OTL, so many of the boats will be less than ideal. These early boats will be transferred to training duties or to West Africa Squadron. The basic build out is going to be by year starting in 1905 as:

2,2,4,6,10,14,20,20,20,30.

This will means 118 U-boats have been built by the start of the war, of which several will be lost to accidents, and there will also be a small training squadron of older boats. I expect to have 80 to 100 actual commission, operating boats in non-training commands. The U-boat command will have about 50 boats of the quality you list as 1913 boats. I am working through the details, year by year. The larger/longer production history will allow the Germans to exceed actual wartime production levels substantially.

The POD on the political background for the boats has been evolving but now stands as broadly as follows:

1) 1903/04 Additional funding for U-boats approved.
2) 1904 U boat command given to Prince Henry of Prussia. Henry was good at making new technology work, and had good Charisma. Over the years, he will be the champion of the U-boat command, which will eventually evolve into a largely independent arm, especially the Colonial commands which will have a full one half of the boats by the start of the war. The command will operate under the existing command structure, but the squadron commanders will show a lot of initiative if the main fleet is inactive.
3) 1907 will see setup of West Africa Squadron. The older kerosene boats go here and training. It will be 2-3 boats, growing to 5-10 over the years.
4) 1908 the be first systematic war plan review. This will be an annual event, and show the development of the plans. The plans will show the lack of combat experience by all navies of the boats. Also, the East Africa Squadron is formed. It will begin with a small number of boats, and eventually grow to the 5-15 boat range.
5) 1909 Tsingtao squadron will be setup. It will begin small, but grow to 20 ships.
6) 1910 The story focus will shift from the perspective of an individual squadrons setup to more the overall command. I will introduce the main Admiral for the campaign that year.

After 10 years development under different admirals will result in a U-boat fleet that is twice the size and a much more fully evolved doctrine. This doctrine will not be the unrestricted doctrine, but a shield for ports and cruiser rules for merchant ship doctrine. As the war progresses, the Germans will have a much more powerful tool to use. I am not trying to have the Germans necessarily win the war, but instead answer to myself the question.

If the Germans entered WW1 with twice as many U-boats, how would the war change? I had to pick such a long POD to allow time for the U-boat arm to mature. I was originally going with more of a crash program as you suggest, but decided a too rapid buildup at the very end would panic the British and take the timeline down a different path than i intend to travel. Today i am being work on the ship by ship, class by class building program outline, and I hope to have the first installment by this weekend for 1904-1905.

Thanks for the comments.