Background for TL : Kaiser falls in love with U-boats, 1908

I like this thread. Submarines are fun and it's interesting to see what you can do with them.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
You neglect the cost of the men, the facilities to base the Uboats, the repair facilities, the training facilities, the targets, the personnel for maintenance and their training, etc. There is a lot more that goes into it than just the cost of the boats. Where is the money going to come from? The army is getting lots more money throughout all of this for upgrading artillery (pretty expensive) and adding more machine guns, the navy had plans for bigger ships for every Mark it can get its hands on.
The Reichstag pinched Pfennigs like no other and was extremely loath to raise taxes or issue more bonds to pay for anything beyond what the naval bills required. It was still an untried technology and the navy still looked at it like the airplane. An interesting and useful auxiliary device that was still years away from really become useful.

I'm not sure Prince Henry really had that much pull in construction and consider the profit margins too. I'm not sure what they were for Uboats, but industry wants to build big BBs as they make lots off of it and can employ many workers to build them. Uboats take a while to build, but are small items that employ only a few people. Plus the major infrastructure costs to the navy to build up everything to do with Uboats: bases, construction facilities, trained personnel...all of that competes with BBs because the Reichstag doesn't want to pay for anything more than it has to. Ready up on the naval laws and you'll see how bitter the struggle was to get the navy the funding it had OTL. Even 1-2% costs, which it won't be due to all the other infrastructure that goes with it, is a lot in terms of how money was raised in the Reich.

Could you name some theorists that were pushing for subs?

I will review these costs as the timeline passes, year by year. In the first year, the budget was 250,000 marks in OTL, so i am simply going to double it and approve it. For 1905, the budget will be 500,000 marks and 1906 it will be 1,000,000 marks allocated. My POD will simply be that the extra money is approved because of the influence of Prince Henry and the Kaiser. But to answer your questions, the money comes from extra taxes and lower domestic spending (50/50 split), not from other military budgets. I will look at yours and some other poster numbers, and I will have to work on the later year budgets.

Yes, the Naval lobby would much prefer another BB over another U-boat, but that is not the choice it is facing. Since at least for the first few years, the total submarine construction budget will come no where near enough to build a major warship. We are looking at the same issues, but our perspective differs. You seem to see a small, up start program that is too small to defend. I see a small program too small to fight both the Kaiser and a major Naval commander over. I am making the assumptions that the High Seas Fleet commander has political power, even if he was not a Prince. Now as the number of ships increases into the double digits built per year, there may be a major fight that the U-boat advocates may lose.

All ideas in this thread are more to avoid an ASB type timeline that falls apart in year 1910, more than anything being fixed. Even at numbers as low as 9 U-19 style boats a year for 6 years will result in a major increase in the U-boat fleet at the beginning of the war.

The books I am using are

http://books.google.com/ebooks/reader?id=U_k_AAAAYAAJ&printsec=frontcover&output=reader&pg=GBS.PA7

http://books.google.com/ebooks/reader?id=mJxDAAAAIAAJ&printsec=frontcover&output=reader&pg=GBS.PA59

http://books.google.com/ebooks/reader?id=qq0gAAAAMAAJ&printsec=frontcover&output=reader&pg=GBS.PR18

As to the strategy, I have do not have a strategist that says U-boats replace surface fleets, just that U-boats complement surface fleets. Sometimes they can do the job better, and they always do the job cheaper. Mahan is largely silent on U-boats, but Navies that follow Mahan such as the USA and Japan have a lot more enthusiasm towards U-boats than the Germans. Germany is the oddball and lager among the Mahan navies in U-boats. At no time pre-war, will the U-boat be seen as a replacement for surface fleets, no more than a PBY or B-17 was a replacement for the USN in the early 1940's. It will be a compliment to existing forces. Strangely enough, when one reads what people think U-boats can do, it sounds a lot like what people claimed the B-17 could do in naval warfare. U-boats keep enemy surface fleets a few hundred miles from naval bases in daylight hours on clear days. So in the same way B-17 were used by the US to protect overseas possessions and major naval bases, the prewar German disposition of forces will be similar.
 

BlondieBC

Banned

A Kaiser class BB costed 45,6 million Mark. In 1914 19 million Mark were planned to build 6 boats (Germany usually ordered boats of 6 or 12, as 12 boats were a flotilla). Thus 12 boats per year would cost 38 million Mark, roughly 85% of a BB.

Adler

I would like to thank you two for the help. The numbers have not been making sense over the last few days, and I have found my mistake. It was in the exchange rates from pounds to marks. I was using 1 to 5, but it is really 1 to 20.

Based on the British Naval Estimates, the Germans were spending 146K pounds (2,942K marks) in 1907 on "submarines construction and other experiments. This amount had risen to 978K pounds (20,000 marks by 1913), or around 13% of the construction budget. I have had to adjust the construction plan to an average of 10 ships for the last four years before the war. A longer, slower buildup of ships, and dropping the total number of U-boats built from 100 to 65 (52 in service) will still allow me to have around twice the fleet size of the Germans at the start of the war. The high year change from OTL in budget will be about 10,000K marks in construction costs and 3,000K marks in operating budget. While not exactly where i want to be on % terms, it makes a workable solution.

Wiking, I have looked at you concerns over payroll and ships upkeep. In the German Navy, these two figures are roughly equal, so I am going to use estimate the number of sailors on board versus the main line ships, and prorate the payroll and ship upkeep budget. The German Navy has a lot of overhead that is not directly variable based on the numbers of ships.

Working through the details have lead me to believe the greatest impact of a larger submarine force will be the more intangible benefit of more experience, better trained crews and better doctrine. The average submariner in my ATL will have about twice as many years in the submarine service. These improvements will show up in having aggressively executed war plans early in the war and a much higher success rate when an U-boat is in the vicinity of a target.


The sub budget included other things such as salvage tugs like this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMS_Vulkan.
 

Deleted member 1487

I would like to thank you two for the help. The numbers have not been making sense over the last few days, and I have found my mistake. It was in the exchange rates from pounds to marks. I was using 1 to 5, but it is really 1 to 20.

Based on the British Naval Estimates, the Germans were spending 146K pounds (2,942K marks) in 1907 on "submarines construction and other experiments. This amount had risen to 978K pounds (20,000 marks by 1913), or around 13% of the construction budget. I have had to adjust the construction plan to an average of 10 ships for the last four years before the war. A longer, slower buildup of ships, and dropping the total number of U-boats built from 100 to 65 (52 in service) will still allow me to have around twice the fleet size of the Germans at the start of the war. The high year change from OTL in budget will be about 10,000K marks in construction costs and 3,000K marks in operating budget. While not exactly where i want to be on % terms, it makes a workable solution.

Wiking, I have looked at you concerns over payroll and ships upkeep. In the German Navy, these two figures are roughly equal, so I am going to use estimate the number of sailors on board versus the main line ships, and prorate the payroll and ship upkeep budget. The German Navy has a lot of overhead that is not directly variable based on the numbers of ships.

Working through the details have lead me to believe the greatest impact of a larger submarine force will be the more intangible benefit of more experience, better trained crews and better doctrine. The average submariner in my ATL will have about twice as many years in the submarine service. These improvements will show up in having aggressively executed war plans early in the war and a much higher success rate when an U-boat is in the vicinity of a target.


The sub budget included other things such as salvage tugs like this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMS_Vulkan.

Okay, this is much more doable. Still, what about the basing infrastructure and construction slips? It took 3 years of war and unlimited spending to get a force of 100 Uboats OTL in 1917. Here of course there are now fewer, but the basing issue it a major one. OTL during the war the Germans spent major sums (I don't have numbers ATM) on building sub bases in Belgium and Germany.
This is a cost that needs to be factored in.
Otherwise I think it might be doable if you can find the right doctrinal shifter to make it work.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Okay, this is much more doable. Still, what about the basing infrastructure and construction slips? It took 3 years of war and unlimited spending to get a force of 100 Uboats OTL in 1917. Here of course there are now fewer, but the basing issue it a major one. OTL during the war the Germans spent major sums (I don't have numbers ATM) on building sub bases in Belgium and Germany.
This is a cost that needs to be factored in.
Otherwise I think it might be doable if you can find the right doctrinal shifter to make it work.

I have written the 1903 post, but it needs a final read-over when i am not so tired. It is taking me 10's of hours per years to work through the details in a single years post, and I have not got to the basing issues. Each year will be a post, unless it gets way too long. My current plan is in 1906 to make the squadron operation with 5 subs less possible permanent losses to accidents. Initially it is operating with the Baltic fleet, so the extra basing costs will low. In 1907 will be the year that the Salvage Tug becomes available, because it is in OTL. I personally would have built it so soon, but they did. I also plan to transfer 2 to 3 submarines to West Africa. This will be when I go into the basing issues. I have some interesting ideas on how to build a base in a third world country, but I have a lot more research to do. If needed, this will be a complete fiasco, and the ships will transferred elsewhere. I plan to base 6 of the kerosene based subs in West Africa. I am debating using a permanent base, or try to build a poor man's sub tender. The one in OTL is way to expensive and will remain in Germany. It supported the Salvage Tug needs through 1917, so this is grossly overbuilt for a 6 ship fleet. Also, labor will be real cheap in Africa, and near slave time labor conditions could be used if needed.

As to Germany there will be the same number of U-boat there at the start of the war as OTL, plus or minus 20%, so i may skip over those details on just focus on the basing changes. Since Germany will be building about 50% more boats than OTL in 1913, they likely can built them 50% faster in the war IF i divert resources from some other area. Pre-war i can assume extra taxes, but in the war, something else has to be not built so butterflies start then.

The doctrinal shift is subtle, and multistep. This is basically a illustrated butterfly POD. Subs are approved in 1900 budget when the debate is not so heated, then Prince Henry gets involved because he is an admiral in the USA when a sub needs to be bought. These are the two POD, then the following chaos is four of the first 12 officers that come into the ranks will be ace U-boat commanders in OTL. Instead of going into the gunnery, then being moved mid-career to U-boats, each will have 8 years command experience in U-boats at the start of the war. These will be my U-boat fleet commanders in West Africa, East Africa, East Asia, and Germany. When the war starts, instead of a poorly focused planned, each will execute an attack plan based on pre-war studies. These plans will generally be more successful than OTL, and by mid-1915, the British resources in France will be much lower than OTL. Falkenhayen will be able to attack with more divisions because of no Somme like OTL. The USA will not be decisive in the war, but I have not worked out those details, even on a high level. Germany will win somewhere between a cold peace with gains kept in the East (Poland, Baltic) and major victory.

Major tempting targets in the first weeks and months of the war will be the English Channel, Scalpa Flow, Cape Town, Hong Kong, Suez Canal, or the Inland Sea of Japan. Based on the first source I read, the preparations in August 1914 in Scalpa Flow make Admiral Kimmel look like Nimitz. The first source claimed they basically assumed no U-boat could make it that far, and did not prepare a defense. U-boats in both the British Navy and German Navy could easily travel those distances. If additional research agrees with the first source, a squadron size raid on Scalpa Flow will happen in the first weeks of the war, leading to a Naval crisis for the UK. Twelve type U-19 with a combined 72 torpedoes and experience crews will be a disaster for the British, if the British really did not prepare a defense.

To keep the butterflies down, the original 12-16 Kerosene type boats will be leaving service starting in 1912, but be in mothball storage. These will return to the fleet no later than January 1, 1915. By keeping the authorized strength down, it will help minimize the butterflies, and as I look at the early Kerosene boats they have some real issues related to range.

On a side note, Prince Henry was not always for larger Naval budgets, and he will instill in his squad force the need to minimize costs to maximize effectiveness. Also, the lesson of West Africa will force the U-boat leaders to learn to adapt. I am 100% sure there are major deficiencies in Africa for U-boats compared to Germany proper. Issues like fuel, spare parts, extra ammo, and communication will have to be dealt with.
 
Based on the first source I read, the preparations in August 1914 in Scalpa Flow make Admiral Kimmel look like Nimitz. The first source claimed they basically assumed no U-boat could make it that far, and did not prepare a defense.

Who is preparing for war before August 1914 to begin with?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Who is preparing for war before August 1914 to begin with?

All navies should prepare to defend their bases. The UK in the prewar period had spent noticeable efforts defending the naval bases in the English Channel. For example, at Portsmouth, they had laid a series of permanent underwater mines hooked by cables to fortified observation posts. There were additional plans and supplies to lay contact mines fields in case of war. Submarines were to be stationed at the distance of 20 miles form the port as a defensive screen by day and surface craft would cover by night. The spending was so high on the mines, that the government felt the need to defend the cost of the program in the press.

My research in the early days of WW1 for Scalpa Flow indicates the plan was "We are too far from submarines or other small warships to reach". This plan was despite both Navies submarines actually had the range to travel this far, and British Admirals openly discuss the concept of using surface ships to refuel and extend the range of submarines. This lack of preparation bears a striking resemblance to Adm. Kimmel early WW2 performance. Adm Kimmel at least sent out patrol planes, had ships guarding harbor entrances, and had anti-aircraft defenses. I have trouble believing the first source that the British Admiralty had not fortified Scalpa Flow pre-war. The travel time from German Bases to Scalpa Flow was about 3 to 3.5 days at max fuel conservation speed. The trip to Pearl Harbor was closer to 2 weeks.

http://uboat.net/wwi/types/?type=U+17
 
I'm still worried about the type of subs being build and used. In 1904-1908 the Germans had only U-1 and U-2 type subs, based off the very obsolete Karp-class made by Krupp steel for the Russian navy.
The U-1 type sub had only like 2,500 KM(1500 miles) range and had 2 or 3 torpedo's on board.

U-3 was a large improvement on that, as it had multiple torpedos on board as well as a deck gun. But the range was insufficient, 5000 KM(3000 miles). To reach West-Africa you need 4,000 KM(2500 miles) range. This brings up the silly question of me if the range of a submarine is going there and back again or just going.... So a U-3 had 3000 miles range, which would let it reach West-Africa... But will it be able to return? Doesn't really matter as U-3 where not used in combat, only the U-9 where usefull in combat(started in 1908). But the earliest U-boat able to reach West Africa from Kiel was U-17 and they started construction on those in 1910.


So would they built like 10 or 20 of U-17 types a year from 1910? Would they make a lot of the type U-19's, U-31's all the way too U-57?

Not a lot of time too get too 100 before 1914. Do Germaniawerft in Kiel and Kaiserliche Werft in Danzig even have enough capacity?

Sorry i haven't read every single alinea of previous posts so i'm not very sure what the plan is for this.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I'm still worried about the type of subs being build and used. In 1904-1908 the Germans had only U-1 and U-2 type subs, based off the very obsolete Karp-class made by Krupp steel for the Russian navy.
The U-1 type sub had only like 2,500 KM(1500 miles) range and had 2 or 3 torpedo's on board.

U-3 was a large improvement on that, as it had multiple torpedos on board as well as a deck gun. But the range was insufficient, 5000 KM(3000 miles). To reach West-Africa you need 4,000 KM(2500 miles) range. This brings up the silly question of me if the range of a submarine is going there and back again or just going.... So a U-3 had 3000 miles range, which would let it reach West-Africa... But will it be able to return? Doesn't really matter as U-3 where not used in combat, only the U-9 where usefull in combat(started in 1908). But the earliest U-boat able to reach West Africa from Kiel was U-17 and they started construction on those in 1910.


So would they built like 10 or 20 of U-17 types a year from 1910? Would they make a lot of the type U-19's, U-31's all the way too U-57?

Not a lot of time too get too 100 before 1914. Do Germaniawerft in Kiel and Kaiserliche Werft in Danzig even have enough capacity?

Sorry i haven't read every single alinea of previous posts so i'm not very sure what the plan is for this.

Excellent points.

The numbers change on a daily basis, and nothing is set in stone until printed in the main timeline, but here is my current thinking.

1903 - A Holland class sub built under American license. This sub has many defects, and will soon be converted to a training sub, then into an into an in warehouse training sub.

1904 - U-1 type boat delivered form Kiel.

1905 - U-2 type boats from Danzig.

1906 - Another U-1, U-2. There is a production philosophy change due to different leaders in charge. In order to stretch the budget there will be much longer production runs. Ships have about an 85% learning curve, or put another way, if the design is not changed, the second costs 85% of the first, the third the 85% of the third. Over time, this will have subtle, but important effects on fleet composition and capabilities. I am trying to avoid a German wank, so changes from OTL will have both advantages and disadvantages.

1907 - The series of boats similar to U-3, but with longer ranges will be introduced. The longer range is driven by the need to get to West Africa. Eight of these ships will be built under the Second Naval bill. I will also introduce the first of the "sub-tender, range extender" type ships. The first one will be a modified, used freighter, but by wartime, there will be a few ships nearer to what an early 1920's sub-tender will look like. In 1907 in OTL, the Germans come out with a sub-salvage vessel with a 110 man crew. A sub-salvage ship is much more complicated than a ship used to simply to refuel and rearm a submarine. The "sub-tender" ship will also carry spare parts, a small electrical repair shop and mechanical repair shop. These ships will create the capability to greatly extend the operating range of the submarines, should the story go that way.

1908 or 1909. The first ships from the second authorization bill will begin to appear. The last ship from this build order will be completed by 1912. Twelve of the U-19 type boats with more range (up to 20%) and some other possible minor modifications will appear.

1910 or 1911. The first of the U-31 type boats will be made to form the 3rd squadron. Like the previous ones, it will be about a year build plan, and the boats will have a little more range.

The rest of the details have not exactly been worked out, but at the start of the war, I plan to have 4 active U-boat squadrons. (Baltic, North Sea, Africa, East Asia). The Holland class, U-1 class, and U-2 class mothballed. The U-19 will be used for training and also be the Baltic squadron. The U-31 will be the North Seas Fleet, and the other two will be at least U-31 type ships. I will have to work out the butterflies in the English and French navies, but everything I have read about the British indicated they just basically ignored the U-boat threat. This is why i have to do research, and figure out about Scalpa Flow. The U-19 boats in OTL could reach there with ease, yet when the HMS BB Monarch was attached, the attack was ignored because "U-boats can't reach that far". In fact the U-3 appears to have the range.

Since I am starting early, the German shipyards will be able to build 12 U-boats per year easily, so they will have a lot more ability to ramp up, assuming the extra budget can be found wartime. The U-boat arm will have at least one spectacular success that will help divert resources from by surface fleet to the submarine fleet. With 4 separate fleets, at least one of these will work well. I am toying with different plans but the types of battles likely are as follows:

Baltic & North Sea Fleet (probably 12 boat effort, old fork beard keep ships guarding the main fleet.)
- Major Naval raid in western channel focused on warships.
- Major attempt to stop BEF. Don't like this one, because don't want to butterfly the land war that fast.
- Major Naval raid towards North Scotland.

West Africa - 6 Ships
- Defense of Cameroon.
- Cape Town Raid - Much less likely.

East Africa
- Defense of Colony.
- Attempt to cut Suez Canal at mouth of Red Sea, possibly timed to match the Ottoman land offensive.

East Asia.
- At least one capital ship or several troop transports will die over OTL.
- Raid towards either Hong Kong or Singapore, perhaps by combination of Mines and Torpedoes. The East Asia commander is going to be a publicity hound much like Montgomery or MacArthur.


I do appreciate your questions. And as to the previous post, the plans are changing. Only once something goes to the main TL is it a permanent event.
 
Well i'm glad to see you have given this a lot of thought. I can respect that.

I still don't see them building 100 subs of decent type(U-17, U-19) before 1914. There just isn't enough time. You can get to 50 U-17's at best if they start in 1910. Thats pushing it though and they won't have room for any other classes at all(they can switch too U-19's and U-23's around that time though, but that slows down production). Maybe a dozen older classes, to be used in the Baltic or North Sea fleet(mainly U-9's). Perhaps if Bremen port can build U-boats by this time, but even then i can see only maybe 6 U-31's then by the end of 1914 or start 1915... But only if the POD is early, like in 1910.

Its really complicated. I don't even know that much about U-boats.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Well i'm glad to see you have given this a lot of thought. I can respect that.

I still don't see them building 100 subs of decent type(U-17, U-19) before 1914. There just isn't enough time. You can get to 50 U-17's at best if they start in 1910. Thats pushing it though and they won't have room for any other classes at all(they can switch too U-19's and U-23's around that time though, but that slows down production). Maybe a dozen older classes, to be used in the Baltic or North Sea fleet(mainly U-9's). Perhaps if Bremen port can build U-boats by this time, but even then i can see only maybe 6 U-31's then by the end of 1914 or start 1915... But only if the POD is early, like in 1910.

Its really complicated. I don't even know that much about U-boats.

There will be 64 schedule for completion by the end of 1914, of which 52 will be in service. Of these subs, only 50 will be U-19 or better, that is diesel power boats with a range of 6000 nm or better, 6 torpedoes, deck gun, and surface speed in the teens.

Yes, 1910 is too late for a good plan, so i started building the U-19 class submarines in 1908. Also, there will not be so many classes, each squadron will have 12 identical subs. This change will be driven by budget considerations and the issues of basing subs in distant ports. Standardization is a must, when custom parts maybe 3 months or more away in peace time, and impossible to get in war time. They will not switch to the U-19 or U-23. So the setup will be.

Squadron #1 - U-3 class.
Squadron #2 - U-19 class.
Squadron #3 - U -19 class
Squadron #4 - U-31 or similar class
Squadron #5 - U-31, replacing U-3 class ships when the war starts.

Based on some research on the learning curve, I can buy 12 identical boats for the cost of 7 custom designed ships. The German Navy construction costs were 30% more than the British Navy by one estimate. IMO, this is due to too many custom ships, too many change orders, and probably too high a profit margins. Quality, consistent procurement management will help fix these issues in the U-boat command only.

There is at least one slight downside to this choice, some improvements that would have showed up in the U-23 class will not show up until the U-31 classes is built. I am trading more good ships and lower operating costs for not trying to perfect each class of ships. These also are not the glory toys of the Kaiser, so there will be no high level interference.

The POD is in 1900, and by 1907 the POD will start to show up on a large scale in the construction process.
 
I have trouble believing the first source that the British Admiralty had not fortified Scalpa Flow pre-war.

Scapa Flow - get the name right - was a naval base in name only in August 1914. There was nothing there when Jellicoe brought the fleet there and everything was set up after that. I suggest you look at Osprey Books' Scapa Flow.
 
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