AHC/WI : Sucessful landing of the Expedition d'Irlande in 1796

The French Republic planned and launched an expedition in Ireland, at the demand of Wolfe Tone.

This expedition, with 13/14 000 men and 44 ship was just being in the middle of the worst tempest of the XVIII in Europe. The Royal Navy only managed to fight and sunk isolated ships, having 12/13 ships in the Irish coast.

I suppose that a far better coordination among the french ships, no lateness for the last column, etc, would greatly improve the efficiency of the expedition.

For the consequences, well, i think that even if 13/14 000 men would demand a real logistic, but Hoche is a able man enough to deal with that. The main result would be a far more influence of French Republicanism on the United Irishman.

But, for the longest term, i don't know the possibilities of the United Kingdom to make a counter-offensive in Ireland, especially with a rebellion launched by the UI in the same time.

So, if you can bring me precisions.

Nobumbitybumpone have a clue?

Not that I'm an expert, but I know how frustrating it is when no one responds...

It's quite possible with British commitments elsewhere that the French might be able to back the United Irishmen to set up a fragile independent Irish state. However, with continued British control of the seas, they're not going to be able to cross the Irish sea to threaten Britain, and the country will revert to British control at the end of the Revolutionary Wars.

It's likely to have its lasting political impact as a romanticist notion for later Irish republicans, however.

It would certainly open up another front for the French, but as long as the Royal navy is going strong, it won't mean much. However, say the French beat the British Navy...

Oh, yeah i agree with you on a French invasion of Britain would be out of question.
But regarding the diverting of forces that would cause, maybe it could have an effect on the ongoing war, forcing Britain to gather more troops in UK at the loss of other fronts?

For the Royal Navy, well, the Marine Nationale could beat the Royal Navy some times and even for important ones; but i can't see (having little knowledge about XVIII navies) how it could totally defeat the Britons at sea : after all the context of 1796 regarding the expedition involved a great negligence from UK to guard Irish coast.
Probably that any reinforcment would be really difficult to do for the French.

A suddedn thought : could Ireland play the same role for Hoche that Egypt did for Napoleon? A land trap, closed by the Royal Navy that manage to put the general in charge at the head of state?
And the implications regarding culture : no egypt-fashion in France, but gaelic one; late reading of hieroglyph but increasing knowledge about Ireland...

Oooh, I like the idea of Hoche being like Napoleon in Egypt... However I cannot see how Hoche could gather nearly enough intellectuals to join him on the Expedition as Napoleon did. Really, any awareness to Gaelic culture will be nothing compared to a Rosetta stone.

However, baring Hoche's death in 1797, fighting in Ireland could boost his prestige in the eyes of the French populace much like Egypt did for Napoleon... Long term, I don't know how long Ireland could remain free of a British invasion. Ireland is (obviously) quiet close to Britain, and I don't think the British would want the French to have a potential launching pad to invade.

(Pure speculation here but I'll try a stab at it)
Lets say the Expedition makes it, (I don't know how large the British garrisons were on Ireland though) and the French along with the UI could take over all of Ireland. Ireland is free for maybe a few months to a year. I'm guessing the French would be treated much like in Italy, at first Liberators and later as unwelcome guests. The British eventually crush the French there, as with the UI. The British reprisals in Ireland would probably not be soft, so I think after a few years or so the Irish could view the French (once more) favorably. Insert epic naval battle with the British losing their God Mode and the French could try (again) and send men to Ireland as a start for an invasion to Britain.

That seemed more ASB after I reread that, oh well.

My feeling are that this would split Ireland right down the middle, with fighting between families about supporting the French or remaining loyal to the British (very much like the Americans 2 decades before).

If the French did get a foothold in Ireland the British government would do everything to get them out of Ireland, including signing the peace trety that ended the First Coolition in October 1797.

Britain would be VERY heavy handed with their reprisals (think of the Easter Uprising of 1916 without restraint) and I think that the number of Catholics (in particular) who would die or be forced to emmigate would be drasticially increased.

Last of the Stuarts said:

Britain would be VERY heavy handed with their reprisals (think of the Easter Uprising of 1916 without restraint) and I think that the number of Catholics (in particular) who would die or be forced to emmigate would be drasticially increased.

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With the United Irishmen its more likely to be nonconformists rather than Catholics that get trampled the worse isn't it?

In the long term it wouldn't do anyone any good; the French and United Irishmen ultimately can't stand up to British reinforcements, but Britain crushing them would cost a lot of soldiers' lives and the Irish civilian population would be caught in the crossfire. Cromwell all over again really. The only possible bright spot might be if this leads to pro-Catholic reform because Wolfe Tone's men were mostly anticlerical Protestants, but generally speaking British public opinion wasn't as sensitive to details like that.

An invasion of Ireland has few chances of success in the long term. In the short term, the French could win and "free" Ireland but I doubt it would last long. The comparison with Napoleon's Egyptian Campaign is quite well thought.

I don't know the state of the French Navy but I think 1797 navy would probably not be able to rival with the Royal Navy. It would suffer from the same difficulties than the French land army during the early Revolutionnary Wars: few competents generals (Admirals for the Navy) because the competent ones have either fled or been guillotined and a lot of inexperienced soldiers (seamen for the Navy). And unlike the Land Army, the Navy woudln't have discovered itself talented leaders: on Land, the French discovered Napoleon and other competent generals like Kleber, Massena, Davout, Murat or Moreau but I don't know any skilled French Admiral that showed up during the Revolutionnary and Napoleonic Wars.

If Hoche is able to hold his position a few years though, this might be enough to distract Britain from affairs on the Continent. The British would likely wish to settle the Irish question first before anything else.

Indeed, the state of Marine Nationale was simply desastrous at this time : uwilling or unskilled commanders, not real interest regarding the navy from a governement that focus on land warfare (for good reasons).

But, is the Expedition d'Irlande (and subsequent pression groups as "Les Amis de la Révolution Irlandaise" or whatever their name) able to change somewhat that by "Look at that! The more you fool the RN by land invading UK, the less they can support rebellions and Coalition".
The fear of a new UK landing in the continent or in Corsica, that were really recent, could improve that.

I don't know much about British warfare policies (my knowledge is somewhat reduced to "Perfide" and "Albion" in the same sentence), but as said before, isn't the presence to a french army, furthermore suppported (at least at first) by the population could decrease the british involvment in Europe?
Even if they weren't the most well commanded, the 44 french ships in Ireland is something to count on.

The outcome of the expedition depends on how UK want to settle the Irish question :
-A pure and simple british invasion would be costly for the army (probably for both sides) and for civilians, probably increasing the odds of romantic era revolution in Ireland, in 1830's-1850's era.
-An earlier peace treaty with a half-controlled Ireland ? I've little clue about it, i just don't see how UK would feel itself concerned about respecting a treaty that grant fredooms or even sort of home-rule for the island.
-Political career of Hoche : probably he could even become part of the Triumvirate or eventually being part of a junta-like government with other generals. It would keep the republican form and somewhat principles (just "war-adjusted")
-Egyptology : No stone of Rosette? Ouch.
-Situation in Europe : maybe a quicker peace, maybe in 1800? it could be if more skilled commanders as Hoche survive and critically if Napoleon, while still close to power, don't break the commandment chain (it would allow that sulbatern commander to do their jobs more freely and more about the reality than Napoleon's schemes)

Just another sudden tought.

Is a quite epic Expedition d'Irlande, in a Egypt-like manner, could by some relation make an earlier "rediscovery" of celtic civilisation with an earlier emphasis on Gaul (all the decoum, Vercingetorix and Ambiorix related stuff) in the earlier years of XIX rather than the late quarter?

Hoche is a character that Im surprised has not been explored more. He was a military genius on the level of even Napoleon. If he had succeeded even at the level of Napoleon's egyptian campaign, he would return a hero and likely be placed back on the Rhine frontier. A republican a heart he would be a staunch opponent to Napoleon's seizure of power, and will either preform as a counterweight to Napoleon's ambition, or seize power for himself (in the name of the Republic.

A Hoche led Republic will not turn to a empire and will instead focus on expanding the revolution. Instead of installing borthers on the throne, you'll likely find puppet republics being formed like in Italy.

The French could have landed as they where caught in a storm when they got passed British Fleets at Brest most made it to Bantry Bay they had one day of calm, Wolfetone himself said he could nearly touch the beaches, but the French decided to wait for Hoche who had gone missing by the time he turned up the storm had picked up again.

It would be possible for Ireland to have become independent after a successful French Invasion, Ireland at the time was pretty much left to Yeomanry and Militia and a small number of British troops, half the Yeomanry and Militia where actually signed up to the United Irishmen who later in 1798 had according to British intellegence had nearly 300,000 members this was not including 7 or 8 counties. Although in 1796 the Irish where much less prepaired as the raiding of local gentries lands to cut down ash to make Pikes didn't start till 1797.
Ireland was waiting for the French which would have caused a massive turn up with or without weapons.

I think the French would have taken Cork and Cork harbour the Naval base for the British Navy in Ireland also in Cork Harbour was a massive ammunition storage for supplying Ireland and Britain.
Then take Dublin and more difficulty taking Ulster with the Orange Order.
When Ireland becomes free the French will then begin to train the Irish if a portion of 300,000 is true we could have some army(as far as I know Britains was 250,000 at their peak during the Napoleonic wars) plus we had regiments of Irish in every 2nd European country. So with French training and British weapons we could build an army to defend ourselves.

Problems the United Irishmen where divided before any fighting even broke out you had the extremists who wanted a free Irish Republic based on France mainly Catholic, you had others who just wanted better trade rights within Britain mainly Protestant, you also had anti French ideals but wanted a free Ireland, how strong would religious, ideal and class differences remain when the butcheries start during the rebellion. you also had the Protestant hard liners the Orange Order which wasn't huge in 1796 but started growing quickly with British propoganda and was very sizeable in 1798. After getting independence the United Irish differences would become ripe as most leaders where wealthy protestant land owners not wanting to lose their power in society to the men doing the fighting poor Catholics and presbyterians. The country might even divide itself up into waring states.

A free United Ireland very possible but the blood shed would go on for years.

A successful rising was not possible, even if the delusional numbers of possible recruits were accurate the life expectancy of untrained peasants armed with pikes going up against the British Army can be measured in minutes. The addition of 13,000 Frenchmen would seriously aid the cause but it could not change the end result. The Royal Navy had massive quantitative and qualitative superiority meaning that island would soon isolated, at that point it's just a matter of time.

Aracnid said:

The Royal Navy had massive quantitative and qualitative superiority meaning that island would soon isolated, at that point it's just a matter of time.

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That's one of the points : while the RN is busy in Ireland, they can't help elsewhere. And even if the tactical superiority of RN is established, can't at least a part of it be attacked between a rock and an hard place by a new column?

LSCatilina said:

That's one of the points : while the RN is busy in Ireland, they can't help elsewhere. And even if the tactical superiority of RN is established, can't at least a part of it be attacked between a rock and an hard place by a new column?

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By 1796 the war had been going on long enough that many of other theatres had already been pacified. West Indies, Indian Ocean etc. simply needed less ships than in 1793 as most of the French units based there had been taken out.

As for a patrolling squadron getting hit by a larger French column that is entirely possible, though the RN's qualitative advantage makes it unlikely, that they'd get pinned down and wouldn't be able to retreat. But as Napoleon said "God is with the big battalions". The RN will have a lot more ships in theatre and that means the odds are on it's side. That doesn't mean victory is assured, but it is probable.

Also Cú Raghnaill have you though why Britain only had 250,000 men under arms at the it's peak while the United Irishmen claimed to be able to muster 300,000?

Because a.) it didn't need more and b.) professional soldiers are much more expensive than peasants with sharp sticks.

With all due respect to the bravery of the rebels they were doomed, untrained levies will lose to disciplined professionals 999 out of a 1000 and Ireland lacked the economic ability to support a standing army of 300,00 or the time to train it.

If you want a independent Ireland you have to have someone else destroy or at least cripple the RN and British Army. Ireland isn't Spain and no friendly power could provide the sort of aid the British provided Spain as long as the RN is around and baring outside intervention the only way to win a guerilla war is to persuade your enemy to give up and go home and that isn't going to happen.

Good points Arachnid I never said it would be definatly possible I see your point, but it would have been possible for an Ireland to remain independent for a while anyways at least, the United Irishmen did have their problems.

My reasons are training wasn't very long back then basic troops would go through a couple of weeks training elite troops came from experience and if Ireland was taken you had British arms to supply the United Irishmen.
In Ireland in 1796 their was very little British force mainly Yeomanry and Militia(conscripted some where actually United Irishmen before they had to join) in which half of these where willing to join the United Irishmen also the Lord Lieutenant of Ireland was crying out for British soldiers a year later in 1797 as he feared rebellion but he was told they couldn't afford to send over extra troops, Britain was more worried about defending its own coast than keeping Ireland in check as well.
In 1796 their wouldn't have been 300,000 according to British Intelligence but it would have steam rolled once the French landed.
Britain in 1796 didn't have a huge army as all her resources were going into the Navy.
Plus if Ireland was free Napoleon would have put extra resources into getting reinforcements to Ireland he attempted 4 times I think and succeeded in 1, twice British interference and once was weather and bad seamanship.
In 1797-98 he had a force of 50,000 ready for Ireland but never deployed them.

Also once Ireland is free and has the time to train up our own army lets say 100,000 which isn't over the top British Isles had a population of just over 12,000,000 and 4,500,000 of this is Ireland. Plus whatever elite French we have this is a strong defensive army.

I know Britain controls the seas and can plan her attack when she wants but she can't attack Ireland from a defensive position.

The problems are as I stated above.

Also yes Ireland would more than likely be cut off for trade purposes resulting in probably having to come to some sort of agreement with Britain eventually maybe handing over certain Naval positions.

Aracnid said:

A successful rising was not possible, even if the delusional numbers of possible recruits were accurate the life expectancy of untrained peasants armed with pikes going up against the British Army can be measured in minutes. The addition of 13,000 Frenchmen would seriously aid the cause but it could not change the end result. The Royal Navy had massive quantitative and qualitative superiority meaning that island would soon isolated, at that point it's just a matter of time.

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I don't get why people are viewing this as "since they'd ultimately lose, there are no effects."

Britain was undergoing a financial crisis during this period, and there was almost a run on the Bank of England which could have gotten rather messy.

IMO it's worth pointing out that Hoche cut his teeth in the Vendee, suppressing doomed guerillas who used partisan warfare. They say poachers make the best gamekeepers. So I can see this turning into a running sore pretty easily.

Finally, I suspect a prolonged struggle for independence, even if crushed, led by protestant Irish who dream of a secular republic will play a role in how Irish nationalism develops.

Faeelin said:

Finally, I suspect a prolonged struggle for independence, even if crushed, led by protestant Irish who dream of a secular republic will play a role in how Irish nationalism develops.

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That's a good point. Ireland in TTL might be less uber-Catholic, at least politically, and you might have less Catholophobia among the Protestant population.