Spanish Empire's Fall in an ATL?

Take a British win at Saratoga as the PoD -- the American Revolution fails, and one result is that the French Revolution is at the least delayed. Also, if a revolution does come in France, it is milder and does not engulf Europe in war as the Napoleonic Wars did.

What I want to know is what becomes of Spain and it's empire in TTL -- for example, does the Mutiny of Aranjuez (or something like it) still happen around the same time, without the Napoleonic Wars? For that matter, does Spain need to be in a state of civil war in order for New Spain to begin their wars of independence? Going out on a limb, is it possible, if the French are delayed long enough, that Spain may have it's own revolution first -- even if it's just to move the nation towards constitutional monarchy?

(FTR, got the idea re-reading this thread.)

John Fredrick Parker said:

Take a British win at Saratoga as the PoD -- the American Revolution fails, and one result is that the French Revolution is at the least delayed. Also, if a revolution does come in France, it is milder and does not engulf Europe in war as the Napoleonic Wars did.

What I want to know is what becomes of Spain and it's empire in TTL -- for example, does the Mutiny of Aranjuez (or something like it) still happen around the same time, without the Napoleonic Wars? For that matter, does Spain need to be in a state of civil war in order for New Spain to begin their wars of independence? Going out on a limb, is it possible, if the French are delayed long enough, that Spain may have it's own revolution first -- even if it's just to move the nation towards constitutional monarchy?

(FTR, got the idea re-reading this thread.)

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Good point. Can't remember the idea being discussed before. Would say something will happen sooner or later. Might be that if there is another British v Bourbon war Britain might encourage rebellions to weaken Spain and open it's imperial markets to British goods. Alternatively, while the Napoleonic occupation really knocked Spain about, a relatively small and backward state holding such a large empire, especially with the cultural and racial differences, I would expect there would be a steady growth in pressure for more self-government and if that doesn't get listened to outright independence. When and where this would start and under what circumstances I wouldn't like to guess.

A rebellion in Spain itself might even start either satellite or counter-rebellions in some of the colonies. [Or both in different ones].

Steve

John Fredrick Parker said:

What I want to know is what becomes of Spain and it's empire in TTL -- for example, does the Mutiny of Aranjuez (or something like it) still happen around the same time, without the Napoleonic Wars?

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No, probably not. The Napoleonic Wars produced a sort of trauma on Spanish political life, especially following the disposal of the Bourbon monarchy. By severing that link that connected the metropolis to it's colonies, you unleashed a whole set of problems. If Spain isn't occupied, you aren't going to see any full scale problems in the colonies. Yeah, the criollos were often grumbling, and the period before the French Revolution saw some disturbances... but overall, the Bourbon Monarchy in Spain was a lot less neglectful than the Habsburgs had been. They introduced free trade, for instance, and I believe the Spanish colonies were seeing a sort of prosperity before the French ruptured the connection. Of course, that lack of neglect was a huge issue. The Bourbons were a fan of a centralized administration, and tended to appoint Spaniards from Spain to head offices throughout the Spanish Colonies. Previously, the criollos had headed such offices--most especially the courts. I believe towards at the end of the 17th century, the criollos dominated the colonial court system. By the 18th, there were only a handful.

Still, there were only two uprisings against the Bourbons. The War of Comuneros in New Granada, and Tupac Amaru's uprising in Peru. Also remember that in the early stages, many of the colonies were merely unsupportive of Napoleon's brother and the Afrancesados. The Juntas initially supported Ferdinand VII in exile. Problems existed, certainly. But the Napoleonic War and the problems it reaped upon Spain laid the seeds for Spanish America to seek independence.

John Fredrick Parker said:

For that matter, does Spain need to be in a state of civil war in order for New Spain to begin their wars of independence? Going out on a limb, is it possible, if the French are delayed long enough, that Spain may have it's own revolution first -- even if it's just to move the nation towards constitutional monarchy?

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No, Spain isn't going to have a revolution before France. France had a unique set of circumstances that produced it's Revolution that can't be replicated in Spain. There wasn't any sort of unrest of that like in Spain. There might be grumblings of discontent within the colonies... but without the Napoleonic Wars, the path to independence would be quite different. If the Bourbons are intransigent to change things, there could be issues. You could see the criollos radicalize and decide to take matters into their own hands. But that is something that could take decades. Or the Bourbons could compromise. The fact of the matter is, the Bourbon Reforms were designed to cull a profit out of the colonies. This isn't the age of gold and Philip II. The neglect of the Spanish Habsburgs was replaced with more centralized authority, to bring money into Spain. And I believe, money was coming in. But at the cost of resentment. After all, the Juntas went from supporting Ferdinand VII to barely a decade later seeking independence. So the resentment was there. But without a sort of conflict to inflict the sort of trauma on Spain's political life that Napoleon did, that resentment is going to take a lot longer to boil over.

The colonies eventually become *Dominions or Kingdoms under the Spanish Emperor.

I do not understand why every TL that avoids the invasion of Spain results in the colonies randomly becoming independent.

John Fredrick Parker said:

Much to mull over... Thanks

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Spain had one of the strongest holds over its colonies prior to the Revolution and the penninsular War... If change comes to the Empire it will probably be at the behest of Madrid itself and following on the heals of reform in Spain itself first. Not impossible...If France goes through a milder version of the Revolution that results in brief spurts of reform that keep the Bourbons in Control there with diminished influence but still actual Royal authority.

As those reforms progress there will be Spanish Liberals in Spain itself demanding..request might be a better way to put it, for similiar moves in Spain itself...Spain would probably lead the way for the colonies with regard to liberal reforms or reform of the Imperial framework itself....And As much as I d like to think that Ferdinand would not have been suck a conservative authoritarian dickhead absent the trauma that Spain had to endure at the hands of the French...I am not really sure of that...he is really more a product of his upbringing and his initial exclusion from court decisions during his father s reign...and the revolutionary period was the icing on that cake.

Devolution of responsibility is likely more the norm in this event than outright wholesale independence.....

By the end of the 17thC most Spanish politicians had come to the conclusion that while War with Britian could still be fought probably to a standstill it was not advantageous to Spain to do so any more. It would be more Expensive for Spain to fight and defend its far flung empire and the British had greater resilience because of the more developed Economy and would recover far faster. Charles III was reluctant to support the Americans during their revoluiton, it was only with everyone else on the bandwagon that they joined officially and were one of the last to do so and were one of the first to push for a settlement as well. Even with the Bourbon compact...Spain pursued its own interests or avenged its own perceived slights. If this coincided with those of their French Cousins, which it did for the most part, so the better. But even if the French Boubons were to find themselves into a later war with Britain, its not entirely a given that Spain would join the French, it would depend on whether Madrid thought its own interests were affected.

Sounds like there's a real chance the Spanish Empire could stay intact, at least for awhile longer. Do I have that right?

Pretty much. Napoleon mucking around in Spanish politics led to colonial independence, though as it showed not every colony went independent, like the Philippines for instance (though that's more because even if it was a part of the Viceroyalty of New Spain the Mexicans forgot about it )

Is it possible that the northern frontier -- Alta California and Louisiana* -- to break off in the early 19th Century TTL, and form their own republic, while New Spain endures?

*or, OTL, the US west of the Mississippi

John Fredrick Parker said:

Is it possible that the northern frontier -- Alta California and Louisiana* -- to break off in the early 19th Century TTL, and form their own republic, while New Spain endures?

*or, OTL, the US west of the Mississippi

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Not likely... not enough population, for one thing. Secondly, why would they?

I think the attraction to independence in Latin America (among AHers of course) is trying to come up with the whackiest borders possible. Seeing as there aren't any real cultural dissimilarities between the Spanish-speaking colonies (aside from the natives, but did they even come to play in independence?), the borders don't have to follow any real paths (aside from geographical features).

I still think the empire would crumble if Napolean didn't invade. Possibly even for the same reasons as the USA revolted from Britain - what the colonials percieve as unfair taxation, or maybe the Spanish refuse to grant them anymore autonomy. The new republics would certainly get backing from the USA and maybe even Britain (even though the French Revolution isn't happening and the Continental System isn't being implemented, Britain would likely still look for new markets to trade with). Spain might keep more of its empire ITTL, but the wars for independence might be longer and bloodier (think Vietnam except 150 years earlier ).

I could just possibly see an independent New Spain. It had the longest (colonial) history, largest population and most developed/autonomous economy among the territories.
Most of the other viceroyalties, like Peru had smaller elite classes, less diversified economies and were otherwise more closely tied to the Metropolis. Ergo they would probably retain something like a colonial status much longer.
IMO the most intriguing outcome would be a Bourbon Commonwealth.

Suppose New Spain -- from Panama up to New Orleans to Fort San Miguel (on OTL Vancouver Island) -- became independent later ITTL and stayed whole. What would they call their nation?

Plumber said:

The colonies eventually become *Dominions or Kingdoms under the Spanish Emperor.

I do not understand why every TL that avoids the invasion of Spain results in the colonies randomly becoming independent.

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I certainly think that it would be delayed, but I'm not sure it's never going to happen. At the end of the day the interests of their interests were diverging.

Faeelin said:

I certainly think that it would be delayed, but I'm not sure it's never going to happen. At the end of the day the interests of their interests were diverging.

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I agree. The Bourbons had thrown the criollos out of colonial offices and courts and throughout the 18th century had replaced them with white Spaniards from the metropole. There was definitely resentment there that was going to boil over. You don't just cut them out and expect everything to be just fine. To say there wasn't wasn't any resentment little insane--why else would the Comuneros in New Granada revolt and why would the mestizos in Peru rally around Tupac Amaru? There's also the fact that the Juntas went from being royalists to support independence in such a short span that the connection to Spain wasn't very highly valued. Hell, in some areas like Paraguay and Uruguay, independence was supported as early as 1808 and 1810. The Spanish Habsburgs had been neglectful of the colonies, and the Bourbons were very hands on. Much how the British tried to take profits from the Thirteen Colonies after the Seven Years War, the Spanish Bourbons were trying to cull profits out of their own colonies that didn't revolve around the treasure fleet and the Manilla Galleons.

Sure, *dominions are one way things could go. But I still think independence was more likely. There aren't enough Spanish Princes to give crowns in the New World... and who's to say they would stay loyal to Spain, anyways? When you sever that link, what is Spain going to do? Sure, without the American Revolution we might see the Spanish Colonies split into various crowns for Spanish Princes... but that's practically independence. Especially considering Spain wouldn't be able to force them to tow in line if they all went independent. Britain struggled to bring the USA to heel... Spain would deal with just as big of a mess. Independence isn't going to happen as quickly in such a world, but I think eventually it'd happen. Be they republics who borrow from the Enlightenment (even without the USA, you still have the Corsican Republic, Poland, ect), or monarchies (absolute or constitutional) under Spanish Infantes. Either way, some form of autonomy/independence is likely.

John Fredrick Parker said:

Suppose New Spain -- from Panama up to New Orleans to Fort San Miguel (on OTL Vancouver Island) -- became independent later ITTL and stayed whole. What would they call their nation?

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Anahuac or Mexico.

John Fredrick Parker said:

Suppose New Spain -- from Panama up to New Orleans to Fort San Miguel (on OTL Vancouver Island) -- became independent later ITTL and stayed whole. What would they call their nation?

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Mexico only caught on later on, as it only referred to the city and province in colonial. There were a lot of names, such as Anáhuac, which was suggested in 1820. It depends how the movement goes. If you have revolutionaries severing ties with Spain, they might choose some sort of 'native' name to assert themselves as the Mexican Revolutionaries did. If you get a kingdom/empire under a Spanish Prince, you might get something more Spanish sounding. After all, they won't stick with the name of New Spain.

DrakeRlugia said:

If you have revolutionaries severing ties with Spain, they might choose some sort of 'native' name to assert themselves as the Mexican Revolutionaries did. If you get a kingdom/empire under a Spanish Prince, you might get something more Spanish sounding. After all, they won't stick with the name of New Spain.

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I don't know. There's still a New England, New York, etc. in America. Canada has Nova Scotia, there's New South Wales, etc.

Yeah, I'm more partial to something spanish sounding -- especially since Mexico and Anahuac were kind of particular in origin to the region surrounding the capital. (Oh, and I can't help but picture an Emperor at the head -- maybe even a Bourbon forced out of Spain, a la Brazil of OTL.)

Faeelin said:

I don't know. There's still a New England, New York, etc. in America. Canada has Nova Scotia, there's New South Wales, etc.

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TBF, those aren't country names -- the only country with "New" in it's name is NZ, and even they'd probably go with something different if "Zealand" was the name of another country...

Faeelin said:

I don't know. There's still a New England, New York, etc. in America. Canada has Nova Scotia, there's New South Wales, etc.

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Out of all of those, I could see something like the Republic of New England, as it corresponds to a broad swath of the North. Nova Scotia doesn't sound too bad, either. But somehow I doubt an independent New Spain would be "The Empire/Republic of New Spain." It sounds awfully bland. Sure, stranger things have happened, but there are plenty of other names that could be dug up for the new country.

Maybe Union Imperial de las Americas (or UIA)?