imperialaquila
The scramble was nearly finished but there were still some hot spots. Britain was in the process of avenging Gordon by smashing the Sudanese revolt and restoring Egyptian rule, then moving on to the tense encounter with the French at Fashoda. That could be butterflied or with more tension someone could have an itchy trigger finger.
Elsewhere I think things were largely resolved apart from possibly Morocco and the clash with the Boers. There were still a few areas being claimed in 1898 but can't remember exactly when the last agreements were made.
By this time Germany-Austria and France-Russia are pretty much resolved as Germany has burnt its bridges with Russia. That would tend to suggest if a major war comes from this Germany-Austria v France-Russia-Italy, although there are tensions between France and Italy as well. [In theory might see France and Austria co-operating to gang up on Italy but probably unlikely]. Britain is probably going to be neutral initially unless something like Fashoda sparks a clash, someone interfers with British trade or it looks like one side is winning too easily. Japan might try a clash with Russia if the latter gets heavily involved. A major war and the total lack of any railway to Siberia would give them a decent chance. The Ottomans might be drawn in by either pressure from Russia or some clash in the Balkans. [Or possibly if Italy has already started making glances at Libya, although they didn't seize it until 1911 OTL].
If it was just a Austro-Italian war I would say an Austrian victory as they have more resources. Also better terrain as they can attack onto plains in many areas and the Italians have no good options anywhere, as WWI showed.
Agreed. Their likely to seek to trade with both sides but condemn European war-mongering.
Steve
I smell a war coming. A couple of questions, though. Was the Scramble for Africa pretty much finished by 1898? What was the main German war plan before the Schleiffen Plan? This will probably coincide with the Boer War, so that might be one reason for Britain to stay neutral. Also, could the Spanish-American War tie into this somehow? Maybe Spain, when attacked, offers to join the war on one side or the other in exchange for aid against the Americans.
The scramble was nearly finished but there were still some hot spots. Britain was in the process of avenging Gordon by smashing the Sudanese revolt and restoring Egyptian rule, then moving on to the tense encounter with the French at Fashoda. That could be butterflied or with more tension someone could have an itchy trigger finger.
Elsewhere I think things were largely resolved apart from possibly Morocco and the clash with the Boers. There were still a few areas being claimed in 1898 but can't remember exactly when the last agreements were made.
Overall, I agree with DuQuense on the general shape of the war. The opposing alliances will be interesting. Which side Germany and Britain are on will be the most important. France will definitely be on the opposite side of Germany if it joins the war. Russia may try to take advantage of the Austrian distraction in Italy to expand their influence in the Balkans. I can see these opposing alliances fairly easily, but it could be many things:
Germany-Italy-Russia
vs.
Austria-France-Ottomans
Britain is neutral, but favors Austria/France
or:
Germany-Austria-Ottomans
vs.
France-Italy-Russia
Britain is neutral, but favors Germany
By this time Germany-Austria and France-Russia are pretty much resolved as Germany has burnt its bridges with Russia. That would tend to suggest if a major war comes from this Germany-Austria v France-Russia-Italy, although there are tensions between France and Italy as well. [In theory might see France and Austria co-operating to gang up on Italy but probably unlikely]. Britain is probably going to be neutral initially unless something like Fashoda sparks a clash, someone interfers with British trade or it looks like one side is winning too easily. Japan might try a clash with Russia if the latter gets heavily involved. A major war and the total lack of any railway to Siberia would give them a decent chance. The Ottomans might be drawn in by either pressure from Russia or some clash in the Balkans. [Or possibly if Italy has already started making glances at Libya, although they didn't seize it until 1911 OTL].
If it was just a Austro-Italian war I would say an Austrian victory as they have more resources. Also better terrain as they can attack onto plains in many areas and the Italians have no good options anywhere, as WWI showed.
The US will probably join the war only if someone starts sinking their shipping. Otherwise, they'll stay neutral and maybe tackle Spain.
Agreed. Their likely to seek to trade with both sides but condemn European war-mongering.
Steve