Great War?

imperialaquila



I smell a war coming. A couple of questions, though. Was the Scramble for Africa pretty much finished by 1898? What was the main German war plan before the Schleiffen Plan? This will probably coincide with the Boer War, so that might be one reason for Britain to stay neutral. Also, could the Spanish-American War tie into this somehow? Maybe Spain, when attacked, offers to join the war on one side or the other in exchange for aid against the Americans.

The scramble was nearly finished but there were still some hot spots. Britain was in the process of avenging Gordon by smashing the Sudanese revolt and restoring Egyptian rule, then moving on to the tense encounter with the French at Fashoda. That could be butterflied or with more tension someone could have an itchy trigger finger.

Elsewhere I think things were largely resolved apart from possibly Morocco and the clash with the Boers. There were still a few areas being claimed in 1898 but can't remember exactly when the last agreements were made.

Overall, I agree with DuQuense on the general shape of the war. The opposing alliances will be interesting. Which side Germany and Britain are on will be the most important. France will definitely be on the opposite side of Germany if it joins the war. Russia may try to take advantage of the Austrian distraction in Italy to expand their influence in the Balkans. I can see these opposing alliances fairly easily, but it could be many things:

Germany-Italy-Russia
vs.
Austria-France-Ottomans
Britain is neutral, but favors Austria/France
or:

Germany-Austria-Ottomans
vs.
France-Italy-Russia
Britain is neutral, but favors Germany

By this time Germany-Austria and France-Russia are pretty much resolved as Germany has burnt its bridges with Russia. That would tend to suggest if a major war comes from this Germany-Austria v France-Russia-Italy, although there are tensions between France and Italy as well. [In theory might see France and Austria co-operating to gang up on Italy but probably unlikely]. Britain is probably going to be neutral initially unless something like Fashoda sparks a clash, someone interfers with British trade or it looks like one side is winning too easily. Japan might try a clash with Russia if the latter gets heavily involved. A major war and the total lack of any railway to Siberia would give them a decent chance. The Ottomans might be drawn in by either pressure from Russia or some clash in the Balkans. [Or possibly if Italy has already started making glances at Libya, although they didn't seize it until 1911 OTL].

If it was just a Austro-Italian war I would say an Austrian victory as they have more resources. Also better terrain as they can attack onto plains in many areas and the Italians have no good options anywhere, as WWI showed.


The US will probably join the war only if someone starts sinking their shipping. Otherwise, they'll stay neutral and maybe tackle Spain.

Agreed. Their likely to seek to trade with both sides but condemn European war-mongering.

Steve
 
DuQuense

Where did you read that? Never heard anything like that. Some dissatisfaction with the terms as the serfs had to pay off the nobles over a period of years for the loss of the feudal duties they no longer had. Alexander is generally referred to as the Liberator of the Serfs and never heard of any violent reaction to it by them resulting in its repeal.

Steve

Yes in 1863 the Tzar issued a proclamation freeing the Serfs.
At which point the Serfs** revolted against the proclamation, so in 1864 the Tzar rescinded the proclamation. And the Serfs went happily back to work.
The proclamation was then reissued in 1903, and no one paid any attention to it, as the Serfs had left the land already. [or bought it and become Farmers [rich ?Kopacs?] that would plague Lenin in the 20's.



** Whe Modern people look at it as the Serfs being bound to the Land, But from a Serfs viewpoint, It is a matter of the Land being Bound to Them.
No Scottish style Clearances, as long as the Bond is intact.
 
The London Times, 18, September 1898

The newly appointed French foreign minister Theophile Delcassé, met today with her Majesty Prime Minister Lord Robert Arthur Talbot Gascoyne-Cecil in order to find a solution of the Fashoda Crysis, which is opposing 150 tirailleurs set out from Brazzaville under Major Jean-Baptiste Marchand to a flotilla of British gunboats led by Sir Herbert Kitchener in a little village in central Sudan on the banks of the White Nile.

Apparently the french goal is to have an uninterrupted link between the Niger River and the Nile, hence controlling all trade to and from the Sahel region, by virtue of their existing control over the caravan routes through the Sahara.
Unfortunately, such goal conflicts with the accord between Her Majesty and the Egyptian Khedive regarding the Sudan situation after the recent Mahdi crysis.

The situation, however, seems to evolve towards a diplomatic solution, and Monseur Delcassé has been granted an audience at Buckingam Palace tomorrow.

Wether the matter will be solved in the framework of an anglo-french agreement or of a wider european conference remains to be seen.
"Nobody wants a war for the sake of such a remote part of Africa" - declared Monseur Delcassé - "and with the difficult situation arising between Italy and Austria-Hungary for the Geneve assassination diplomats should be their best to preserve good relations in the Concert of Nations".

Political observers, however, points out that the french situation is somehow in turmoil since january because of an alledged plot in the french army resulting in the imprisonment of Captain Alfred Dreyfus under the charge of espionage, and that the conciliating move of the Paris government could tharefore be interpreted just as a dilactory tactic to let internal pressure ease in the french society.
 
Gendarmerie Office Log
Braunau am Inn , 20 September 1898.

Oberleutnant Weiss arrested yesterday evening the brat responsible for the writings that appeared on the walls of several buildings in the last five days.
The responsible is apparently A. H., a 10-years-old boy which has been surprised by the Oberleutnant while defiling another wall of our fair town.
Arrested and brought the Gendarmerie, the boy explained that he was trying to show "patriotical feelings regarding the Geneve outrage that the Italischen had did done in Geneve to our beloved Emperres" <sic>.
Oberleutnant tried to explain the brat that, even if his patriotic feeling is commendable, to defile buildings with mispelled phrases is not the right way to express it, expecially if one of those buildings is the burgmeister's villa.
The boy's father, Aloise H., has been summoned and the brat has been released to his care along with a fine of 2 marks 5 pfennings
 
Gendarmerie Office Log
Braunau am Inn , 20 September 1898.

Oberleutnant Weiss arrested yesterday evening the brat responsible for the writings that appeared on the walls of several buildings in the last five days.
The responsible is apparently A. H., a 10-years-old boy which has been surprised by the Oberleutnant while defiling another wall of our fair town.
Arrested and brought the Gendarmerie, the boy explained that he was trying to show "patriotical feelings regarding the Geneve outrage that the Italischen had did done in Geneve to our beloved Emperres" <sic>.
Oberleutnant tried to explain the brat that, even if his patriotic feeling is commendable, to defile buildings with mispelled phrases is not the right way to express it, expecially if one of those buildings is the burgmeister's villa.
The boy's father, Aloise H., has been summoned and the brat has been released to his care along with a fine of 2 marks 5 pfennings


:D:D:D:D:D:D Love it.
 
Gendarmerie Office Log
Braunau am Inn , 20 September 1898.

Oberleutnant Weiss arrested yesterday evening the brat responsible for the writings that appeared on the walls of several buildings in the last five days.
The responsible is apparently A. H., a 10-years-old boy which has been surprised by the Oberleutnant while defiling another wall of our fair town.
Arrested and brought the Gendarmerie, the boy explained that he was trying to show "patriotical feelings regarding the Geneve outrage that the Italischen had did done in Geneve to our beloved Emperres" <sic>.
Oberleutnant tried to explain the brat that, even if his patriotic feeling is commendable, to defile buildings with mispelled phrases is not the right way to express it, expecially if one of those buildings is the burgmeister's villa.
The boy's father, Aloise H., has been summoned and the brat has been released to his care along with a fine of 2 marks 5 pfennings

Oh wow....what are the young coming to? They will ruin the world, I am sure of it!:rolleyes::D
 
The Bava Beccaris Affaire

The London Times, 22, September 1898

Italian newspapers reported yesterday the news of the disonorable discharge of the General Fiorenzo Bava-Beccaris from the italian army.
The 67-years-old general obtained a doubious fame on May this year, when he ordered his soldiers to fire cannons and muskets against an unarmed crowd protesting in Milan against a rising of bread price.

More than 200 peoples were reported killed, and the action has drawn harsh critics from both the Army and the civil society.
Nothwistanding those critics, the King of Italy Humbert I has been keen in defending the General, and awarded him with the Great Cross of the Order of Savoy in June this year.

During the course of yesterday morning, however, the King's judgment on the General's deeds seems to have changed quite abruptly: the honorificence has been taken back and Bava-Beccaris has been discharged disonorably from the army.

The politically savy reports that such an U-turn change could very well be an attempt to please the public opinion Italy, which has been in quite a turmoil from june, expecially in the northern italian provinces.
An officer of the italian embassy in London reported during a confidential conversation that "with the relations with Austria at a breaking point because of the Geneve affaire, we canot afford such an internal turmoil"

Bava Beccaris released a declaration in his defence, stating that his discharge "was based on false accusations and was a misrepresentation of justice".

Degradation_BavaBeccaris.jpg
 
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New York Police Office, deposition of suspect
21 September 1898.

So we saw one of them damned Dagos, you know the type, don't you? Black hair, black mustache, dark skin, poor clothes ... he was sure to be a Spaniard, one of the moterfu.. of them bastard that blew that ship, the Maine.
And then we said, we'll be damned if he will not get what he deserves, that Spaniard.
Hell, he was a Dago, and we're at war with them, so it's sort of .. patriotic, isn't it?
And also he babbled in some foreing lingo and signed himself, and said things like maamaaa, hell, he was meant to be a Spaniard, wasn't him?
And now it turns out he wasn't a Spaniard after all, but an Italian.
What the fuck! Even if he wasn't a ship-blower, he was a woman-murderer, so what's the difference?
 
So the Maine explosion happens as OTL and sparks a war? It'll be interesting how the European war and the Spanish-American War intersect. At the rate things are going, however, the SAW will be over by the time the European war starts...waitaminute....21 September 1898...the war was over OTL by August 12...European intervention? Or just butterflies lead to a longer war? Interesting...
 
So the Maine explosion happens as OTL and sparks a war? It'll be interesting how the European war and the Spanish-American War intersect. At the rate things are going, however, the SAW will be over by the time the European war starts...waitaminute....21 September 1898...the war was over OTL by August 12...European intervention? Or just butterflies lead to a longer war? Interesting...

USS Maine blown February 15, 1898 (7 months before the assassination).
Hostilities of Spanish-American war ended by August 12, 1898, but formal peace treaty signed in Paris December 10, 1898.
decrease in corn/wheat exports due to Spanish-American war caused rise of bread price in europe (thus the Bava-Beccaris Massacre)
 
From: The Russian Consul in France
To: His Imperial Majesty Tsar Nicholas II of Russia
Confidential

Paris, 24 September, 1898

Following the instruction of Your Highness, today I had a meeting with the French Minister of Foreign Affairs regarding the most recent demarché presented by the Austro-Hungarian Government to the Kingdom Italy regarding the Geneve affaire, and the position that France will take on that matter.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs informed the me that, according to information received by him and according to the announcement made by the Austro-Hungarian Ambassador to the Imperial Court, the Austro-Hungarian Government had turned upon the Italian Government with demands which appeared, in fact, to be quite unacceptable to the Italian Government as a sovereign State, and which were drawn up in the form of an ultimatum calling for a reply within a definite time.
Furthermore, the Ministry showed me a personal letter from the Italian Prime Minister Luigi Pelloux to the President Félix Fauré, asking him advice and support in that matter.
The Minister informed me that, after having consulted with the Ministers of War, Marine, and Finance concerning the political and military situation, President Fauré decreed:

1 -- To approve the proposal of the Minister of Foreign Affairs to get in touch with the Cabinets of the Great Powers in order to induce the Austro-Hungarian Government to grant a postponement in the matter of the answer to the ultimatum demands presented by the Austro-Hungarian Government, so that it might be possible for the Governments of the Great Powers to become acquainted with and to investigate the documents on the Geneve crime.

2 -- To approve the proposal of the Minister of Foreign Affairs to advise the Italian Government, in case the situation of Italy should be such that she could not with her own strength protect herself against the possible armed invasion by Austro-Hungary, not to offer armed resistance to the invasion of Italian territory, if such all invasion should occur, but to announce that Italy yields to force and that she entrusts her fate to the judgment of the Great Powers.

3 -- To authorize the Ministers of War and of Marine, in accordance with the duties of their offices, to beg your Imperial Majesty to consent, according to the progress of events, to order the mobilization of the military districts of Nice, Grenoble, Lyon, Dijon and Paris, and of the Mediterranean fleet based on Marseille.

4 -- To authorize the War Minister to proceed immediately to gather stores of war material.

5 -- To authorize the Minister of Finance to take measures instantly to diminish the funds of the Ministry of Finance which may be at present in Germany or Austria.

I consider it its my loyal duty to inform Your Imperial Majesty of these decisions which it has made.

Countersigned: The Russian Consul in France
 
The Felix-Nicky Telegrams

-Telegram-

From: The President of the French Repubic Félix Fauré
To: His Imperial Majesty Tsar Nicholas II of Russia
Confidential

Paris, 2 October, 1898

We received today reliable information about Austrian mobilitation on the Italian frontier.

The Presidence of the Republic of France remembers to His Imperial Majesty the Tsar that, according to Article 2 of the Franco-Russian Military convention signed on August, 18, 1892: "In case the forces of the Triple Alliance, or of any one of the Powers belonging to it, should be mobilized, France and Russia, at the first news of this event and without previous agreement being necessary, shall mobilize immediately and simultaneously the whole of their forces, and shall transport them as far as possible to their frontiers."

We are confident that His Imperial Majesty will honour His word.

Signed
The President of the French Repubic
Félix Fauré
 
USS Maine blown February 15, 1898 (7 months before the assassination).
Hostilities of Spanish-American war ended by August 12, 1898, but formal peace treaty signed in Paris December 10, 1898.
decrease in corn/wheat exports due to Spanish-American war caused rise of bread price in europe (thus the Bava-Beccaris Massacre)

Ah, that explains it. Thanks. The clouds of war are gathering...Will France join in on the side of Italy? What was the main German war plan pre-Schlieffen?
 
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