If No Columbus, what does Spain do?

Avitus · Oct 22, 2013

If Columbus doesn't sail for Spain, what happens to the Spanish? Obviously butterflies are massive, as at this point the Catholic Monarchs still have three living children ahead of Joanna la Loca in succession, all of whom had deaths that are presumably easily butterflied, or at least delayed until after a potential heir has been sired, but I think that it's more important to focus on what Spain itself does.

Without an instant claim on half the Western World, what does Spain do? Do they focus all of their energy on Italy, or is there more emphasis on Africa or even on controlling Portugal? Without American gold and silver, is the Spanish economy more stable? Is the Spanish navy less developed early on without so many overseas posessions?

Just to tie up loose ends, we'll say that Brazil is still discovered in 1500 by the Portuguese, thus allerting the European powers to the possibility of new land in the west.

BBadolato · Oct 22, 2013

I don't know what Spain would do in regards to Italy, if they don't have a claim to Milan then they would probably just try to consolidate their holdings in Italy, although it's largely just the processions of Aragon's being the Two Sicilies and Sardinia. A major question is what will happen when both Ferdinand and Isabella die, would there be a plan to deal with the Cortes of both Castile and Aragon with no real attention to the new world.

Michael B · Oct 22, 2013

They turn east instead of west and start conquering North Africa. Expect pretty good progress until the Ottoman Turks get an army out there.

The obvious winners in this PoD are the Incas, Azetcs and Maya. Obvious losers are the Barbary pirates and their Englsih cousins.

On the economic side, without the American gold and silver there is less inflation, which is good. On the negative side, the world's money supply remains smaller.

Space Oddity · Oct 22, 2013

Michael B said:
They turn east instead of west and start conquering North Africa. Expect pretty good progress until the Ottoman Turks get an army out there.

The obvious winners in this PoD are the Incas, Azetcs and Maya. Obvious losers are the Barbary pirates and their Englsih cousins.

On the economic side, without the American gold and silver there is less inflation, which is good. On the negative side, the world's money supply remains smaller.

Oh, for the love of...

Look, Spain was doing quite a bit in North Africa IOTL.

Guess what? They didn't have the muscle to take down the Barbary pirates.

This fantasy that a Spain with no holdings in the New World is going to somehow possess this strength is... well, a fantasy. The Berbers and the Maghrebs are better armed than the Aztecs and the Incas, and they don't conveniently die off en masse thanks to smallpox. (At least, no more than anyone else does.)

Michael B · Oct 22, 2013

Space Oddity said:
This fantasy that a Spain with no holdings in the New World is going to somehow possess this strength is... well, a fantasy. The Berbers and the Maghrebs are better armed than the Aztecs and the Incas

The Spanish pushed the Moors out of Spain so there is no reason why they can not take out the Berbers and the Maghrebs one coastal town after another.

OK, so if they go too far inland they will get a drubbing. Sooner or later they will and will so to speak. In the meantime along the coast sailing ships will give them strategic mobility and whilst the Barbary pirates are better armed than the Americans, the Spanish are better armed than they are.

Space Oddity · Oct 22, 2013

Michael B said:
The Spanish pushed the Moors out of Spain so there is no reason why they can not take out the Berbers and the Maghrebs one coastal town after another.

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You do realize that the aforementioned "push" took place over centuries, was a back and forth thing, and when it was over left a hell of a lot of Moors in Spain, right?

But as for your plan--Spain tried to just that. And it usually failed, producing short-lasting coastal enclaves that got kicked over after a few years. (A few decades for the lucky ones.) Nothing in the 'not finding Americas' POD changes that. Spain is not magically owed an empire, and will not acquire one no matter what.

Michael B said:
OK, so if they go too far inland they will get a drubbing. Sooner or later they will and will so to speak. In the meantime along the coast sailing ships will give them strategic mobility and whilst the Barbary pirates are better armed than the Americans, the Spanish are better armed than they are.

You are significantly overestimating the Spanish, and grossly underestimating the Barbary pirates, who were getting away with attacking NAPLES around this time.

RGB · Oct 22, 2013

Space Oddity said:
This fantasy that a Spain with no holdings in the New World is going to somehow possess this strength is... well, a fantasy. The Berbers and the Maghrebs are better armed than the Aztecs and the Incas, and they don't conveniently die off en masse thanks to smallpox. (At least, no more than anyone else does.)

Spain had notable but impermanent successes against the Maghrebi powers, but you're completely right that ALL of the effort expended into building the New World Empire is a literal drop in the bucket compared to the Italian, Low Countries, and especially African campaigns. Having that extra drop in the bucket remain in Spain isn't going to change the balance much. The New World was done on a shoestring. The Barbary Pirates and the Ottomans allied with them were a life and death struggle.

Space Oddity · Oct 22, 2013

RGB said:
Spain had notable but impermanent successes against the Maghrebi powers, but you're completely right that ALL of the effort expended into building the New World Empire is a literal drop in the bucket compared to the Italian, Low Countries, and especially African campaigns. Having that extra drop in the bucket remain in Spain isn't going to change the balance much.

I am aware of that. But as I noted, it never lasted. Giving them a few hundred extra guys isn't going to dent the long-term advantages the Barbary pirates and allies have at this time against any significant Spanish incursion.

BBadolato · Oct 22, 2013

The problem with that is the Taifas states of Southern Spain where hardly united and to deal with ethnic problems of who was reliable or not, in contrast the Barbary States were much different as they didn't have the same problems in that regard. How exactly do know that the Spanish are better armed at this point?

PoorBoy · Oct 22, 2013

In a hypothetical situation where the 'Spanish' were successful in North Africa, which kingdom would control it: Castile or Aragon? In OTL 'Spain', Castile basically got control of the New World, Aragon the Mediterranean, and Portugal the Eastern Atlantic and the Far East.

jetpack · Oct 22, 2013

If the Portuguese discover America in 1500, is there any reason why Spain wouldn't become a major player in the Americas? I would think they could send explorers by 1505 or 1510 even if they don't have the same head start as OTL.

Avitus · Oct 22, 2013

jetpack said:
If the Portuguese discover America in 1500, is there any reason why Spain wouldn't become a major player in the Americas? I would think they could send explorers by 1505 or 1510 even if they don't have the same head start as OTL.

Very true, I would expect them to have American posessions, just maybe not on the massive scale of OTL, where about half the Americas fell to them.

As for Africa, I would say that Spain was unsuccessful there for reasons not directly related to the Americas, but not wholly unrelated either. Primarily, I wonder if more lasting gains might have been made by a Spain that isn't playing to be the world's first arguable superpower, and instead is focussed on affairs closer to home. Without American wealth on the scale of OTL, are they more reasonable in the scope of their power projection, perhaps taking some more substantial gains in Africa, or even making some of their Italian posessions more well integrated, or do they just have all around less success everywhere than in OTL?

Urcea · Oct 22, 2013

Does another European power take the immense wealth of the New World? This would affect Spain and Europe as a whole: Europe might not have the power to fend off the Ottomans in a few years, leading to Christendom being at risk. If not, much of Spain's power would simply be sent somewhere else, and that "somewhere else" power would probably have some sway in Italy, in Germany, et cetera. France with the riches of the New World is a scary thought. Look out England and Emperor, and the butterflies from there are fascinating.

Lindseyman · Oct 22, 2013

This thread doesn't say for whom Columbus does sail, and does it matter? Once Spain knows it's there they will go and see what they can find and conquer. At that time no one is going to stop them certainly not Portugal, nor France nor England. In the long run although some boundaries might be different I think that the "New World" will be exploited much as in OTL.

katchen · Oct 22, 2013

I think that Charles V would be less likely to find Spain and the Holy Roman Empire unwieldy and divide it between his sons. Spain could well continue on indefinitely as a part of the Holy Roman Empire. The Dutch Rebellion might be butterflied away as well, since it was the Netherland's separation from the HRE and direct rule from Spain that the Dutch found intolerable. So perhaps no Netherlands or a Netherlands taking a very different form.

Henriksson · Oct 22, 2013

Spelf said:
Does another European power take the immense wealth of the New World? This would affect Spain and Europe as a whole: Europe might not have the power to fend off the Ottomans in a few years, leading to Christendom being at risk. If not, much of Spain's power would simply be sent somewhere else, and that "somewhere else" power would probably have some sway in Italy, in Germany, et cetera. France with the riches of the New World is a scary thought. Look out England and Emperor, and the butterflies from there are fascinating.

The most plausible power to take up that position would be... Portugal. I'm not sure how I feel about that.

Urcea · Oct 22, 2013

Henriksson said:
The most plausible power to take up that position would be... Portugal. I'm not sure how I feel about that.

Could they properly exploit that power? For the sake of argument, could you really see armies of Portuguese going head to head with the Turks in the Balkans, et cetera?

I haven't an idea how the Portuguese would use such wealth, now that I think of it. The best possible effect would perhaps be a lasting Iberian Union ("Greater Spain") down the road.

Simon · Oct 22, 2013

katchen said:
Spain could well continue on indefinitely as a part of the Holy Roman Empire.

When was Spain a part of the Holy Roman Empire? Certainly its rulers were elected Emperor but I was under the impression that it Spain itself was never considered imperial territory.

Avitus · Oct 23, 2013

Lindseyman said:
This thread doesn't say for whom Columbus does sail, and does it matter? Once Spain knows it's there they will go and see what they can find and conquer. At that time no one is going to stop them certainly not Portugal, nor France nor England. In the long run although some boundaries might be different I think that the "New World" will be exploited much as in OTL.

I'm assuming there is no Columbian expedition, either Columbus dies early, or nobody bothers to fund him, and thus the Portuguese discovery of Brazil is the discovery of the New World. This gives Portugal the leg up, but doesn't guarantee anything.

katchen · Oct 23, 2013

France would be the logical nation to exploit (or at least trade with) Meso-America. Perhaps beginning with Hugenot colonies that in this time line would not be destroyed by the Spanish or Portuguese since the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico would be out of everyone's way and difficult for anyone else to even discover.