If No Columbus, what does Spain do?

Flubber

Banned
Okay, I don't know why you don't get this, but the purpose of this thread is to discuss the conditions set down in my OP, not to explain in detail how they came about.


What you're failing to understand is that how those conditions are reached controls what occurs later.

We are already agreed that those conditions can reasonably be met, so how exactly they have been met doesn't matter...

To the contrary actually, exactly how they've been met matters a very great deal.

I'm sure you've seen the all-to-repetitive threads in which a new member innocently asks what would happen if Germany won WW1 only to asked how and when Germany won the war because the how and when greatly effect those later whats.

The same holds true here whether you want to acknowledge it or not.

... and you being kinda rude about it in your responses to myself and others is getting rather annoying.

Rude and annoying? I explain the geopolitical reasons behind Portugal's discovery of Brazil and give a thumbnail overview of what is happening in western Europe circa 1500 with an eye towards who could quickly jump on the exploration bandwagon but I've been rude and annoying?

Sure. Whatever.
 
What you're failing to understand is that how those conditions are reached controls what occurs later.



To the contrary actually, exactly how they've been met matters a very great deal.

I'm sure you've seen the all-to-repetitive threads in which a new member innocently asks what would happen if Germany won WW1 only to asked how and when Germany won the war because the how and when greatly effect those later whats.

The same holds true here whether you want to acknowledge it or not.



Rude and annoying? I explain the geopolitical reasons behind Portugal's discovery of Brazil and give a thumbnail overview of what is happening in western Europe circa 1500 with an eye towards who could quickly jump on the exploration bandwagon but I've been rude and annoying?

Sure. Whatever.
Perhaps it's somewhat justified, but I would agree with the sentiment that you are acting a bit rude.
 
It's not just sending a ship back. It's that plus not following de Gama's route despite using de Gama's pilots, swinging further west than any Portuguese ship has done during the decades of Portuguese exploration, swinging further west because he saw seaweed, and several other things.

His actions before and after landing in Brazil strongly indicate an official directive that he was tasked to take a quick look at Portugal's side of the Line of Torsedillas.

While Cabral's actions before reaching Brazil (i.e. swinging further west) are certainly suggestive of a deliberate exploration about Torsedillas, his actions after discovering Brazil don't require it. Cabral knew that Torsedillas had been signed. Even if his swinging west had been accidental / an individual desire for exploration / whatever, finding land which Portugal could claim on the right side of the line would be enough to justify sending a ship back to Portugal. Yes, it was expensive (any ship's cargo was worth a lot, if it survived the voyage to and from India), but having land which Portugal could claim post-Torsedillas was also very useful.
 

Flubber

Banned
While Cabral's actions before reaching Brazil (i.e. swinging further west) are certainly suggestive of a deliberate exploration about Torsedillas, his actions after discovering Brazil don't require it.


My point is that it was all of Cabral's actions, both before and after discovering Brazil, which strongly suggest a deliberate attempt to look for land which is both west across the Atlantic and east of the Line of Torsedillas.

When examined individually his actions seem like happenstance. When examined collectively, however, his actions strongly indicate something else.

Cabral knew that Torsedillas had been signed. Even if his swinging west had been accidental / an individual desire for exploration / whatever, finding land which Portugal could claim on the right side of the line would be enough to justify sending a ship back to Portugal. Yes, it was expensive (any ship's cargo was worth a lot, if it survived the voyage to and from India), but having land which Portugal could claim post-Torsedillas was also very useful.

In everything I've been able to read regarding Portuguese explorations during the period, Cabral is alone in sending back a vessel with news of a discovery while the rest of the expedition pressed on. Earlier finding the Madieras, the Azores, and the Cape Verde islands didn't trigger the return of a courier with news of the discovery. Passing Cap Vert, reaching Senegal, reaching the Cape, even reaching Calicut didn't result in the dispatch of a courier back to Portugal while the rest of the expedition pressed on. The innumerable Portuguese exploration flotillas left as a unit, traveled as a unit, and, apart from losses, returned as a unit. The only time a vessel returned alone was when circumstances, almost always weather, separated that vessel from the expedition.

Despite using the same winds, same currents, and facing the same weather, Cabral "somehow" swung further west than nearly a century of previous Portuguese explorers had ever done. Despite being tasked to lead the Second Armada to India using de Gama's charts and de Gama's pilots, Cabral "somehow" swung further west than de Gama did. Despite the Sargasso being known to the Portuguese since the early 1500s, sighting seaweed led Cabral to "somehow" swing even further west. And, despite no previous Portuguese commander doing anything like it in decades of exploration, Cabral "somehow" decided to dispatch a courier back to Portugal with news of the discovery of Brazil.

If you choose to believe it was all some happy accident, so be it. I choose to believe the accumulated evidence points to something different. I choose to believe that Columbus' discoveries and resultant the Treaty of Torsedillas led the Portuguese to undertake limited exploration of the western Atlantic with an previously planned expedition which would be passing through the region in question. And I'm far from alone in believing that.

Getting back to the original scenario and as I've argued in previous threads, an absent Columbus or a Columbus who fails to gain funding delays an age of exploration by only a few years. Once Europe learns in mid-1499 that de Gama has reached India, the flood will begin. Columbus will get funding or his ideas will be dusted off, others with their own ideas will get funding, and the "discovery" of the Americas will quickly follow.

Also, as another recent thread discussed, Spain not winning the lottery in the shape of the Aztecs and Incas won't substantially effect her activities in Europe through roughly 1550.
 
My point is that it was all of Cabral's actions, both before and after discovering Brazil, which strongly suggest a deliberate attempt to look for land which is both west across the Atlantic and east of the Line of Torsedillas.

When examined individually his actions seem like happenstance. When examined collectively, however, his actions strongly indicate something else.
The one piece that doesn't fit is "what's the big mystery?" Why not chronicle that that swing to the west was planned? They were not doing anything wrong! Sure, the information that there were specific orders to that effect could simply have been lost but still...

Having said that, the circumstantial evidences you mention plus the way the Portuguese pushed the Tordesillas line to west (at the implied expense of an eventual counter-meridian in Asia) is more than enough for me to believe that the Portuguese had prior knowledge (or a great deal of certitude) that there was land in what turned out to be Brazil. Coincidences happen but I'd be surprised if Cabral's discovery of Brazil was one such case.
 
What you're failing to understand is that how those conditions are reached controls what occurs later.



To the contrary actually, exactly how they've been met matters a very great deal.

I'm sure you've seen the all-to-repetitive threads in which a new member innocently asks what would happen if Germany won WW1 only to asked how and when Germany won the war because the how and when greatly effect those later whats.

The same holds true here whether you want to acknowledge it or not.
This is not the same as your example, because when asked for specifics, I supported unplanned discovery (either chance winds, a navigational failure, or a glory hunting expedition commander) during an early expedition to India. That is plenty specific, but you refuse to be satisfied by such an explaination, for reasons you have explained either through unclear sarcasm, or by saying herpedy derp, neither of which explain the issue, nor does this latest post.

Tell me, what is the great historical difference between the fleet being blown offcourse, the commander choosing to turn west on a whim, or a navigational error? Seeing as we can't even definitively prove Cabral's motives today it would seem as though they make little difference in understanding the course of history.

Rude and annoying? I explain the geopolitical reasons behind Portugal's discovery of Brazil and give a thumbnail overview of what is happening in western Europe circa 1500 with an eye towards who could quickly jump on the exploration bandwagon but I've been rude and annoying?

Sure. Whatever.
No, it's the sarcasm mostly, and the non-constructive criticisms as well. The parts of your posts that you mentioned in the above are all fine and good.
 
In everything I've been able to read regarding Portuguese explorations during the period, Cabral is alone in sending back a vessel with news of a discovery while the rest of the expedition pressed on. Earlier finding the Madieras, the Azores, and the Cape Verde islands didn't trigger the return of a courier with news of the discovery. Passing Cap Vert, reaching Senegal, reaching the Cape, even reaching Calicut didn't result in the dispatch of a courier back to Portugal while the rest of the expedition pressed on. The innumerable Portuguese exploration flotillas left as a unit, traveled as a unit, and, apart from losses, returned as a unit. The only time a vessel returned alone was when circumstances, almost always weather, separated that vessel from the expedition.

Cabral's reaching of Brazil was much earlier into a planned voyage than previous expeditions' discoveries. For instance, when the other Cabral (Gonçalo Velho) found the Azores (or re-discovered the Azores, as the case may be), he didn't need to send a courier ship home, because he was bringing the whole fleet home from there. Likewise in the case of da Gama, he didn't need to send a ship back when he reached Calicut, because he was planning on sending the whole expedition back from there.

Cabral had also discovered a much larger land than places like the Madeiras or Azores, in a time when claims were more ambiguous and may have mattered (as Spain was exploring the New World too), and time was more of the essence. The fleet which Cabral had was also the largest fleet yet assembled, and could more readily spare a ship than a smaller fleet. So even if the discovery of Brazil was accidental, it still made perfect sense for him to send a ship back to Portugal, where other Portuguese exploration flotillas had not done so in the past.

That said, my main point was that it's still historically ambiguous whether Cabral's discovery of Brazil was accidental, a deliberate voyage to check Portugal's Torsedillas claims, or even whether Portugal had heard of lands like Brazil earlier and sent an expedition to officially confirm their claim. Historians have been arguing over it for more than a century. As far as I know, it's not settled.

Personally, I happen to agree with you that, more likely than not, Cabral's discovery of Brazil was intentional (either because of the Torsedillas line or to investigate previous rumours). But there are still some unanswered questions.

Such as why risk so large a fleet - the largest Portugal had ever assembled - on going into the unknown further west, when they could have swung a smaller fleet west to look at the same thing? Or just used a smaller squadron of the Second Armada - which after all already had a smaller division (intended for Mozambique) who could have swung west on their own if needed, to check out the coast of Brazil. Or the lack of any records explaining why Cabral went west intentionally.

Yes, there are possible answers to those questions, too. But there's enough reasonable doubt that I have no problem if, for the purposes of an AH scenario, someone decides to run with "Cabral's discovery of Brazil was accidental and would have happened even sans Columbs".

Also, as another recent thread discussed, Spain not winning the lottery in the shape of the Aztecs and Incas won't substantially effect her activities in Europe through roughly 1550.

In this point at least, we are in complete agreement.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Why?

Getting back to the original scenario and as I've argued in previous threads, an absent Columbus or a Columbus who fails to gain funding delays an age of exploration by only a few years. Once Europe learns in mid-1499 that de Gama has reached India, the flood will begin. Columbus will get funding or his ideas will be dusted off, others with their own ideas will get funding, and the "discovery" of the Americas will quickly follow.

Why would da Gama's success in reaching the east round Africa, encourage, rather than *discourage*, attempts to reach the east via the west?

OK, so going west is a theoretical way to compete with Portugal without doing so so in the teeth of Portuguese resistance. But for all the worries about Portuguese domination about eastern trade, it nevertheless should decrease prices over and be an improvement to the circumstances if western consumers over the days prior to Da Gama, when the trade between western Europe and East Asia had to go through Indian, Mongol, Arab, Mameluke, Ottoman and Italian middlemen.

The opening of the da Gama route would most likely make funding a western route harder, not easier. Da Gama's discoveries will be noticed in Europe, and with the Cape Route a sure thing, going west seems more speculative than ever. Combine that with the most common estimates of the earth's size, and it makes it appears that the way west is filled with impossible distances of open water. This effect only gets worse as the Portuguese reach Malacca (1509), Spice Islands (1511) and China (1517), reveal Asia to be smaller and more compact than the estimates of Marco Polo and Columbus.

With increasingly justified skepticism, wouldn't a westward voyage become less likely for at least a few decades, and those who want to compete with Portugal will attempt to do so directly even in the face of Portuguese resistance (so the English or the Spanish try to poach on the Portuguese discoveries), with Spain being in the best position to compete with the Portuguese by seizing its metropolitan and colonial territories?

Further, even if everything said so far about the impenetrability of the Maghreb to Spain is true, might the Castilians, exploiting the African and Indian Ocean paths blazed by Portugal, do more against some of those softer targets than Portugal did? Results could be mega-Angola and mega-Mozambique, possibly connected by land at the Cape, possible deeper penetration into southern India, and wider conquest of the East Indies between Malacca and the Spice Islands, leading possibly to a Filipino-like hybrid culture on some of those islands.
 
Iceland was known and inhabited, Greenland was known albeit abandoned, there were the old norse stories about Vinland; Basque, British and Scandinavians fishing the Grand Banks and Spain being a lot more efficient at keeping competition at bay than Portugal had been. North America rediscovered by the Northern Europeans by 1650 at the very latest. As to what it would be called? New England/Scotland/Denmark/Netherlands.... make your choice or from left field New Atlantis
 
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Flubber

Banned
Why would da Gama's success in reaching the east round Africa, encourage, rather than *discourage*, attempts to reach the east via the west?


Because that is what actually happened in the OTL.

Check on the number of voyages of exploration launched after Columbus' return in 1492 versus the number launched after de Gama's return in 1499. Even with Columbus' results in hand, Spain dispatched more expeditions after 1499/1500 when it became certain that Portugal's successes would her to establish a pricing monopoly on goods from the East.
 
Re: Newfoundland Fishing Camps

I am aware of the archeological evidence for European fishing camps on Newfoundland dating back to the early 16th Century. what other solid evidence is there Basque, Gascon, Bereton, or Bristol fishermen were working the Grand Banks and salting Codfish ashore before 1500. I'm interested in adding to my refrences on early North American settlement.

Thanks
 

Flubber

Banned
I am aware of the archeological evidence for European fishing camps on Newfoundland dating back to the early 16th Century. what other solid evidence is there Basque, Gascon, Bereton, or Bristol fishermen were working the Grand Banks and salting Codfish ashore before 1500. I'm interested in adding to my refrences on early North American settlement.


Kurlansky's Cod is most likely the easiest book you'll be available to find on the subject. It's fairly recent and sold well. The book's bibliography will point you to other references.
 
I am aware of the archeological evidence for European fishing camps on Newfoundland dating back to the early 16th Century. what other solid evidence is there Basque, Gascon, Bereton, or Bristol fishermen were working the Grand Banks and salting Codfish ashore before 1500. I'm interested in adding to my refrences on early North American settlement.

Thanks
i dont believe there IS any solid evidence. There is a fair bit of suggestive circumstantial evidence, but afaik, nothing solid.
 
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