Effects of a German Debacle Sealion
- Thread starter BigWillyG
- Start date
This has also been done many times.
Anyway it dpends how big the defeat is but if we consider that the Germans lose the majority of 10 divisions along with higher naval losses than Norway and large equipment losses and the loss of nearly all the barges then this is going to be a much tougher war for Germany. Attacking the USSR will probably have to be diminished or cancelled until 1942 either way will end badly for the Germans also the loss of the Barges will shatter the economic output of the Rhine.
Anyway it dpends how big the defeat is but if we consider that the Germans lose the majority of 10 divisions along with higher naval losses than Norway and large equipment losses and the loss of nearly all the barges then this is going to be a much tougher war for Germany. Attacking the USSR will probably have to be diminished or cancelled until 1942 either way will end badly for the Germans also the loss of the Barges will shatter the economic output of the Rhine.
The main effect woul probably be economic and political - the loss of the Rhine barges and the loss of face.
Army losses wouldnt really effect the available strength.
LW losses would be high, but then the RAF will have taken heavy losses too, so no huge change
Navy losses would be pretty much the available fleet - theyd probebly lose some subs too, but again the RN will lose ships too. so no huge change. Might well change the Germans to a U-boat only naval war a little earlier.
But the barge losses could put a big dent in german production over the winter
Army losses wouldnt really effect the available strength.
LW losses would be high, but then the RAF will have taken heavy losses too, so no huge change
Navy losses would be pretty much the available fleet - theyd probebly lose some subs too, but again the RN will lose ships too. so no huge change. Might well change the Germans to a U-boat only naval war a little earlier.
But the barge losses could put a big dent in german production over the winter
I disagree, the Army would lose the majority of 10 divisions including a mountain division and 2 panzer divisions.
Markus
Banned
And how could the WH get that across the Channel? The ´74 wargame estimated the german losses at half of that. App. 75,000 men, which includes
one entire Mountain division and very little armour since the RN had cut the SLOCs before at port could be captured.
The '74 Wargame stated that in a moronic move (more idiotic than the actual plan) the Invasion would go ahead without air supremacy. With air supremacy there would still be carnage but it would give the Germans the chance to land more troops and thus ultimately lose more.
It would need to be on British terms i.e Leave Scandanavia,the low countries, France and Poland however they might get some minor concessions like a naval treaty a non-aggression pact and possibly the Danzig corridor however its very unlikely they accept this.
Markus
Banned
I reply that the Germans could have never gained air superiority. They might have been able to push the RAF out of Kent but as soon as S...n is launched the RAF would have attacked from save bases north of London. Result: no opportunity to land more troops that might have been lost.
I completely agree with you mate but this scenario relies on Sealion going ahead and even Hitlers insane mind wouldn't give the go ahead unless there was some form of air superiority over Great Britain.
I Blame Communism
Banned
Hmm. I'm not sure whether Hitler would be sane enough to try, or what would happen to him if he didn't, but why would we make peace? It'll have been a shock, but we'll have won. Our stiff upper lips will have been vindicated. We have no reason to be less determined than in OTL.
Markus
Banned
IMO that could have been only the above mentioned situation. The RAF -actually one fighter group- abandons Kent, the Germans mistake that for victory over the entire RAF and launch S...n.
The biggest impact would be on morale, Positive for the British, Negative for the Reich. It is difficult to quantify the impact that such a decisive defeat would have at this point in the war, when everything was going the Reich's way (the British had defeated the Blitz, but regular attacks on the UK continued, and the Heer was successful everywhere it trod). The impact on the Officer Corps loyalty to Hitler might have been profound (maybe an attempt on his life/coup in 1942?).
The actual manpower loss would be far less serious, even with 10 divisions wiped out to a man (the Heer deployed over 200 division just on the Eastern Front). The virtual elimination of the German Airborne force would also have some interesting impacts during D-Day, since they were some of the most effective troops fighting the Allied force in the early days, and also in Italy, although the lack of them in either theater would not be an event changer
The destruction of the KM surface force would be a negligible matter since the KM surface fleet was a trivial impact on the war overall (although loss of the Tirpitz would free up considerable RN forces that were dedicated to BB later in the war)
The actual manpower loss would be far less serious, even with 10 divisions wiped out to a man (the Heer deployed over 200 division just on the Eastern Front). The virtual elimination of the German Airborne force would also have some interesting impacts during D-Day, since they were some of the most effective troops fighting the Allied force in the early days, and also in Italy, although the lack of them in either theater would not be an event changer
The destruction of the KM surface force would be a negligible matter since the KM surface fleet was a trivial impact on the war overall (although loss of the Tirpitz would free up considerable RN forces that were dedicated to BB later in the war)
The Tirpitz isn't in service so it isn't likely to be a casualty.
Likewise with four years until D-Day I have the feeling the German airborne might recover...although it isn't certain that they'll recover in time for Crete.
Wehrmacht losses are probably going to be between one third and one half of the nine infantry divisions involved, plus the two airborne units.
Barring some insane state of affairs where the Germans get the entire first wave of nine complete divisions in three separate waves ashore plus supplies and support units and only then lose the invasion fleet. More likely it goes as it did in the (in)famous war game where the first wave gets on but the second wave is dramatically reduced and then the game is over.
The most important detail, besides the German economic problems for next several months, is that by January 1941 the British have 30 infantry and 4 armored divisions in England and if the British are CERTAIN no invasion can take place what might be done with, say, half those forces elsewhere?
Likewise with four years until D-Day I have the feeling the German airborne might recover...although it isn't certain that they'll recover in time for Crete.
Wehrmacht losses are probably going to be between one third and one half of the nine infantry divisions involved, plus the two airborne units.
Barring some insane state of affairs where the Germans get the entire first wave of nine complete divisions in three separate waves ashore plus supplies and support units and only then lose the invasion fleet. More likely it goes as it did in the (in)famous war game where the first wave gets on but the second wave is dramatically reduced and then the game is over.
The most important detail, besides the German economic problems for next several months, is that by January 1941 the British have 30 infantry and 4 armored divisions in England and if the British are CERTAIN no invasion can take place what might be done with, say, half those forces elsewhere?
I'm not sure if that would make much difference, the sending and support of troops abroad was more ship-limited than troop-limited.
However the interesting possibilities is what is Hitler's reaction?
Does he decide to throw a hissy fit and hit Britain as hard as possible whereever he can (more Med support, for example), and ignore Russia for now?
Or does he decide its a bad job, he'll ignore the UK (saving LW strength over the winter to make a stronger Barbarossa, reduce navy steel to build more tanks) and go take out Russia, then see how Britain takes things when they dont have any hope of Russian involvment?
Or does he go as OTL, main effort Russia, but a considerable effort against the UK (particularly before Barbarossa)
Simple answer? No. It wont work (you need a continuous stream of window to look like aircraft, youd need so many shells..youd be far better shooting them at the enemy! And they wouldnt move...stationary aircraft are a big of a giveaway its a fake...
Sachyriel
Banned
Simple answer? No. It wont work (you need a continuous stream of window to look like aircraft, youd need so many shells..youd be far better shooting them at the enemy! And they wouldnt move...stationary aircraft are a big of a giveaway its a fake...
So in conjunction with a few aircraft dropping them along with the shells being shot in a massive effort they could pull this off once or twice?
No, it still doesnt look like aircraft...
The British managed it on D-day, but they were impersonating convoys - a stream of aircraft dropping window, then going back around, so the speed of advance was around 10 knots.
But there is no way you can make it look like its going at 250 knots...