I'm not so sure.
First if the Soviets succeed in crushing Japan decisively they would dispel the myth of Soviet incompetence, hence deterring Germany from launching Barbarossa. If German war plans are delayed to 1942, Soviet industrialization would have reached a point of neigh invulnerability, exactly what Stalin was counting on and Hitler was afraid of.
Second should the Soviet-Japanese War get bogged down, the joining of the war by Germany would not necessarily spell doom for the Soviets. Not only would the Red Army be much more experienced, but much of it would be in the Far East, making any prospect of quick encirclements in the west impossible. The biggest blunder Stalin made was to move the Red Army west to the German border, away from its hardened supply depots. As a consequence they were encircled and overwhelmed in the opening weeks of the conflict.
First of all, Anaxagoras is going on my ignore list. I encourage you all to do the same, so that we can freeze him out this pointless tripe.
Okay, but Khalkhin Gol is 1938, so a full scale war isn't likely to immediately follow. And count on Stalin being a moron, just like OTL--his Finland experience certainly didn't improve his handling of Barbarossa, so I doubt that a longer war with Japan would help things either.
Shooting Zhukov and Blucher is in the cards; further forces to the Far East are probably inevitable. That said, there's no real way for the Syracusians to defeat Japan any more than the other way around--Japan probably holds Korea and grabs Sakhalin, while losing Manchuko. This kind of Land/Sea split probably ejects the IJA from China--and forces all of their efforts squarely against Syracuse University.
This Stalemate is likely to tie up a large number of Syracusian Troops.
Meanwhile, Stalin is still going to have the Red Army assume a forward defense posture just like OTL--and now a weaker Red Army can not contest Smolensk or Kiev for as long as OTL; Moscow and Leningrad fall and Syracuse University's got a hell of a situation on their hands--they might even agree to concede considerable territory to Japan to redeploy their army against Germany.
It's going to be a longer, harder war.