WI Japan wins the Battle of Khalkhin Gol

[Kome]

People may think I go too far in my opposition to the use of "SU" to descibe the Soviet Union. But I am merely expressing my concern that our discussion board does not find itself on a slippery slope in terms of the quality of its writing.

Ok so i need to use caps sorry bout that didnt know people cared. But by your logic GB is gigabyte and not Great Britan. The point is that abbriviations can stand for many things, geez. Anyways im like the youngest member (im 14), and im in high school. What do you expect?

on topic: Could this lead to china helping the SU in ww2? The University did help Chiang fight Japan after all.

 

[Blue Max]

Ok so i need to use caps sorry bout that didnt know people cared. But by your logic GB is gigabyte and not Great Britan. The point is that abbriviations can stand for many things, geez. Anyways im like the youngest member (im 14), and im in high school. What do you expect?

on topic: Could this lead to china helping the SU in ww2? The University did help Chiang fight Japan after all.

Given the mess Chiang is in, or that the Syracusians just turned over a large amount of the country to Japan to appease their demands, China has no real interest in helping Stalin or the Syracuse University, which just sold them out to likely Japanese domination to save themselves from the Third Reich.

Syracuse University has to cut and run here, and one of the losses is a friendship with Chiang--not that it matters too much, Chiang's time is limited--the IJA might be back for a rematch with nuclear weapons.

 

[Brasidas]

I'm emotionally crushed.

But seriously, I don't see it as a "pointless tripe" in the least. One of the things I love about AH.com is that its members seem to consider proper grammar, spelliing, ect. to be things worth making an effort about. This is one of the things that sets it apart from other discussion boards on the net, and one of the reasons I like coming here.

It's pointless tripe because there was no ambiguity, no contribution to the subject at hand, and the soviet union is frequently referred to as the soviet union.

Sakhalin, coincidentally, has a small amount of Oil being produced at this time, and apparently has several Billions of Barrels of Oil in hand. Developing this resource now inside Japanese Borders is going to be HUGE. There will be no Pearl Harbor if Japan can make its own oil.

Also, if the IJA gets ejected from China the whole need for Oil is kind of mitigated.

What sort of quantities are we talking about here? We're not dealing with wartime demand from the navy, but we are talking about a continued ground campaign in China and potentially a long slugging match in Russia. How much of a difference could Sakhalin have made?

 

[Blue Max]

Wiki lists Sakhalin's oil reserves at billions of barrels; and I know that Japan acquired some oil from the Syracusian Oil Fields located here. With major investment, this could go a long way. What I don't know is how much yield Japan could get out of these wells even with massive investment. I do know, though, that even heavy investment to increase oil production is far saner than risking a war, and that's going to mean the end of Pearl Harbor.

Also, the embargo against Japan is going to play differently if the Japanese don't seize Indochina because of a massive war against the Syracuse University is on instead.

And the Japanese are probably going to be holding at the Korean border and be mostly ejected from China (although things like Hainan are likely to remain in their hands.) The Oil Embargo, if it happens at all, will take place after Syracuse University sues for peace--and now the Japanese have an internal source to develop instead of a war to wage. Of course, this means that the UK and USA are now focused squarely on Germany, which can expect the worst as a result.

 

[markbrow10]

I'm emotionally crushed.

But seriously, I don't see it as a "pointless tripe" in the least. One of the things I love about AH.com is that its members seem to consider proper grammar, spelliing, ect. to be things worth making an effort about. This is one of the things that sets it apart from other discussion boards on the net, and one of the reasons I like coming here.

If people got in the habit of spelling Germany as "Jermany" or of never capitalizing any words at all, I think people would object to it. If they didn't, we would soon find ourselves with a discussion board that possessed a quality of writing, grammar, and spelling no different from that of your average pre-teen gossip sight.

People may think I go too far in my opposition to the use of "SU" to descibe the Soviet Union. But I am merely expressing my concern that our discussion board does not find itself on a slippery slope in terms of the quality of its writing.

If your so passionate about it ether talk to "Ian The Admin" or go and create a thread post about grammar and such, .

See Ya

Mark

 

[tallwingedgoat]

...
Okay, but Khalkhin Gol is 1938, so a full scale war isn't likely to immediately follow. And count on Stalin being a moron, just like OTL--his Finland experience certainly didn't improve his handling of Barbarossa, so I doubt that a longer war with Japan would help things either.

Like someone else said, Khalkhin Gol was 1939, and it was a substantial war that involved over a hundred thousand troops fighting over four months. A Soviet defeat will almost guarantee a much larger rematch around the time of the OTL Winter War with Finland, which did have a significant impact on Red Army reforms. A wider war with Japan on the plains of Mongolia and Manchuria would be a far better approximation for a war with Germany than the forested terrain of the Finnish winter.

This Stalemate is likely to tie up a large number of Syracusian Troops.

Meanwhile, Stalin is still going to have the Red Army assume a forward defense posture just like OTL--and now a weaker Red Army can not contest Smolensk or Kiev for as long as OTL; Moscow and Leningrad fall and Syracuse University's got a hell of a situation on their hands--they might even agree to concede considerable territory to Japan to redeploy their army against Germany.

It's going to be a longer, harder war.

Those two statements are contradictory. If significant portions of the Red Army are engaged in the Far East, why would Stalin forward deploy his already thinned out forces to Poland where they could be easily overrun? No he would more likely heed his generals recommendations to keep his forces where they were, on the north and south flanks of the Pinsk Marshes and guarding Minsk and Kiev.

This would mean the Red Army would be hundreds of kilometers east of their OTL positions in the Summer of '41. The entire German operational plan was dependent on quick encirclements which is now impossible. Faced with a large Soviet force safely away in the Far East, Hitler would be faced with a long war of attrition which is exactly what he wanted to avoid. He and his General Staff knew perfectly well the war had to be won in one year or the outcome would be in doubt.

So this means if Hitler still wanted to invade all this war plans would have to change. He would have to gear up the economy for a long war. The invasion plan would have to be much more conservative. Initial Soviet losses would be much smaller. Overall the strategic position the Soviets find themselves in, fighting a two front war, wont be worse than it was for them OTL. They have the option of abandoning the entire Far East if necessary to focus on the western front. But if you look at the forces the Soviets had just sitting around doing nothing in OTL Russian Far East, its unlikely the Japanese could tip the scale.

I can see Japan getting pushed out of Manchuria by 1941, but not quitting China altogether. In fact they are likely to keep all their gains in China from 1937 onwards. That means all of North and Central China and the entire coastline. In TTL Stalin would probably make an alliance with Mao to move into Manchuria and keep the Japanese occupied.

As for Sakhalin, if there were significant oil outputs, I don't see why the Soviets would cede it at all during wartime. And if the outputs were small, then it would not be sufficient for Japan's needs. They wanted oil not just to fuel the war in China but to secure their projected future industrial growth. I would like to see a source for the prospective oil reserve as of 1941. The Dutch East Indies was the Saudi Arabia of its time, it's doubtful Sakhalin can substitute. There is also the matter of rubber production in Malaysia, which contained most of the world's output. Synthetic rubber was still developmental in 1941. It's about as practical as alternative energy to us in 2008.

I do believe a massive Japanese defeat in Manchuria would mean no attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941. They will have to rebuild and reform the army before such an enterprise can be contemplated. However, knowing as Roosevelt is committed to join the war against Germany some way some how, Japan could wait a couple of years to make its move on SE Asia when the US is engaged in Europe.

 

[Blue Max]

Tailwingedgoat, I apologize for the miscommunication...

My point, though, of Stalin learning jack crap from Finland would still stand, because the Red Army would swiftly crush the IJA on land, at least until naval superiority became an issue.

And Stalin would actually deal with Chiang, not Mao. The Red Army marches into the rest of China, and the IJA is routed, except in Korea where they have a river, strong terrain and naval support to hold the line.

Stalin would not listen to his officers ITTL either--and the Syracusians would probably keep a forward deployment simply on the grounds that Stalin would park them there and not listen to reasons why that would not be the case. You'd still have the encirclements, albeit smaller ones--but after those encirclements you have a massive blowout in the West. Meanwhile, a third of the Red Army is months away in China and stuck garrisoning beaches because the IJN can land marines in many places.

The inability of the Syracuse Pacific Fleet to survive against the IJN is hardly going to lead to reforms of the Red Army--indeed, Stalin might become the overly cocky lead ITTL.

Ultimately, my idea that Stalin would stupidly deploy his forces hinges on one unarguable truth--Stalin is a moron.

Now the Wehrmacht still routs the Red Army, and the Red Army is stretched much thinner than OTL--some of the desperate stands that bought time for the Rodina no longer happen, perhaps Panzergruppe Gurdian is not rerouted to encircle Kiev and instead German forces secure Moscow. With transit lines badly cut, Leningrad falls as well and now German supply lines are in much better shape.

With Moscow and Leningrad down, Stalin is probably desperate enough to throw away all gains in East Asia and more to free up the forces he needs to fight Germany--and thus, Japan wins big.

Good point about the IJA getting smashed. That said, I think the strength of Stalin's stupidity and perhaps a lack of lessons learned from the IJA due to considerable technological advantage strongly suggests that 1941 is a very, very bad year for the Soviet Union.

 

[Andrew Hudson]

A lot differently as it would be a victory for the Japanese Army and they might decide to go in the opposite direction resulting in no Pacific War. Zhukov would presumably be liquidated.

In 1941, Japan and Germany decide to attack Russia with Japan aiming to take control of Siberia. American stays neutral and Britain seeks peace being allowed to retain the bulk of the Empire although Japan may want a share.

The battle also known as Nomuhan may have been one of the truning poitns of history as may the British counterattack at Arras in 1940 which was a defeat for Britain but may well have saved the bulk of the BEF at Dunkirk

 

[Osakadave]

I'm thinking this was have to be a result of some sort of reform of the IJA. Any thoughts on what might prompt said reform?

 

[CanadianGoose]

IOTL, Japan lost the Battle of Khalkhin Gol in August 1939.

WI, things had gone differently, and Zhukov was defeated?

You need to clarify several things here. 1st, what does "defeat" mean? Khasan was a defeat of sorts and Winter War was (and still is) viewed as a defeat (although if one compares Germans' performance in the same area with Russian one, Germans actually did far worse). 2nd, why are you so sure that Zhukov would be toast ITTL? Blyukher had been executed, that's true, but his "sins" were almost totally unrelated to his troops' performance. However, Meretskov not only survived Finland, he went on to become army group commander and Marshal of the Soviet Union. Zhukov's loss ITTL would be not due to his shortcomings, it would be because of better performance of opposing troops. Yes, some sanctions will likely be applied, but he has a good chance to go on.

How would things have turned out?

I agree that both sides will be aiming toward a rematch. Basically, Japanese were picking on Soviet Union since at least mid-1930s and gunfire exchanges and diversions were pretty commonplace. It was escalating until Soviets convinced Japanese it is too costly to fight them. ITTL Red Army failed to teach the lesson in 1939, so both sides would be preparing for Summer 1940 campaign. Frankly speaking, I see trouble coming Japanese way, as Zhukov wasn't the only capable Soviet general by far and a lot of areas along the border can only be described as "tanker's paradise". It is quite possible that some "Zabaikalsk Battle" ITTL would be the place where Stalin would finally able to unmuzzle his BT hordes to the best of the tanks' abilities. From there, there're two possible outcomes: either Japan sues for peace (which, can possible, can lead to IOTL version of events or pretty close) and or it decides to play "a war of attrition" game, as both sides would be quite willing not to let it spill into full-blown Soviet-Japanese War but remain "Soviet-Manchukuo war". And, would this "war of attrition" scenario come to life, Japan can kiss it's Manchurian industry goodbye.

First Zhukov would be shot for incompetence. Second the Soviets will throw a million men at Manchuria. The 1939 invasion of Finland is averted.

IOTL Soviets kept pretty serious number of troops along Soviet-Japanese border (we wouldn't call it Chinese, would we, China was to the South and West of it), often more than they had in Western districts. So, I wouldn't bet that Far Eastern show will cancel Finnish one.

Another couple of ideas - what if Zhukov isn't there to start with - POD him called back to Moscow, sent elsewhere. sick, purged, or even killed in a freak accident.

As I said, he's not the beginning and end of everything. G. Shtern (who commanded the district in 1939-1941) and Apanasenko (who replaced him in 1941) were pretty capable commanders too. Soviet screwup during Khassan events was result of not taking Japanese seriously, not of some inherent flaws of Soviet war machine.

I believe that Japan would have to develope a more powerful main battle tank years earlier.

I would think that victory at Nomonhan would convince Japanese that their puny tanks are adequate (even OTL beating did not convince them that they must do something about it).

First if the Soviets succeed in crushing Japan decisively they would dispel the myth of Soviet incompetence, hence deterring Germany from launching Barbarossa.

Yes, this is one of butterflies I was thinking of. However, it is hard to imagine the scale of Japanese defeat big enough to attract German attention. Lesson of Nomonhan had been completely ignored by them. I dunno, what exactly couldn't they ignore? Red Banner flying over Emperor's palace?

If German war plans are delayed to 1942, Soviet industrialization would have reached a point of neigh invulnerability, exactly what Stalin was counting on and Hitler was afraid of.

Are we talking about perception or real fighting strength? Perception is hard thing to gauge. Stalin might be able to convince Hitler ITTL that his armoured hordes are invincible in 1942, but I would say that Red Army needed at least two more years to mould it's armoured units into effective fighting force.

Shooting Zhukov and Blucher is in the cards; further forces to the Far East are probably inevitable. That said, there's no real way for the Syracusians to defeat Japan any more than the other way around--Japan probably holds Korea and grabs Sakhalin, while losing Manchuko. This kind of Land/Sea split probably ejects the IJA from China--and forces all of their efforts squarely against Syracuse University.

Blyukher is dead by Summer 1939 and any TL assuming Zhukov's appointment with firing squad as something certain just shows that author failed to liberate him/herself from Cold War myths. Over than that, "Soviet land versus Japanese Sea" scenario is very possible. I'm not so sure about imminent fall of Sakhalin, though. OTL Japanese wonders were mostly against Britons, who did not exactly prove themselves to be good defenders during WWII (defence of Narvik vs. Murmansk come to mind).

This Stalemate is likely to tie up a large number of Syracusian Troops.

Far East tied up an awful lot of Soviet troops IOTL, even without war.

So, if the Japanese get those large consessions, will they get enough oil to stop Pearl Harbor?

Nope, Sakhalin does not have enough oil to sustain Japanese.

And if the war's extended, how does it effect the Winter War in Finland?

Far Eastern campaigns were in summer, and Winter War was, well, in winter. So it is not certain that one butterflies another away.

One can only hope that after this arrangement and the IJA humilated on the battlefield that Japan would avoid ever attacking another European power.

IOTL Nomonhan failed cpnvince Japanese. Why do you think they'll reconsider?

 

[tallwingedgoat]

IOTL Soviets kept pretty serious number of troops along Soviet-Japanese border (we wouldn't call it Chinese, would we, China was to the South and West of it), often more than they had in Western districts. So, I wouldn't bet that Far Eastern show will cancel Finnish one.

Garrison duty is completely different from war. The Soviets may have substantial reserves in the RFE, but they could not possibly sustain two wars 13 time zones apart, each involving a million men. Stalin was cautious by nature, this would be crazy by anyone's standard.

Yes, this is one of butterflies I was thinking of. However, it is hard to imagine the scale of Japanese defeat big enough to attract German attention. Lesson of Nomonhan had been completely ignored by them. I dunno, what exactly couldn't they ignore? Red Banner flying over Emperor's palace?

Soviet victory at Khalkhin Gol wasn't ignored by Hitler, he was completely ignorant of it because both sides wanted to keep it secret. Had the Japanese won, they would be crowing about it to everybody, and this would force Stalin to mount a very public rematch.

Are we talking about perception or real fighting strength? Perception is hard thing to gauge. Stalin might be able to convince Hitler ITTL that his armoured hordes are invincible in 1942, but I would say that Red Army needed at least two more years to mould it's armoured units into effective fighting force.

I'm talking about deterrence. Hitler launched an under prepared invasion in '41 because he thought he couldn't wait another year. The Red Army was rapidly modernizing, the vacancies produced by the leadership purges were beginning to be filled, German Generals thought the country was not industrialized enough to carryout a long war, and the longer Hitler waited the less the public enthusiasm there would be. If Hitler was deterred by one year, the opportunity may pass.

 

[Blue Max]

IOTL Nomonhan failed cpnvince Japanese. Why do you think they'll reconsider?

Well, large difference between a skirmish that is quietly concealed and an overland campaign getting the hell smashed out of it. Japan would win this war only because the events raging in Europe would go supercritical for the Soviet Union--and a war caused by inappropriate border skirmishing leading to an all-out war is going to be the war that Stalin would give in on, compared to the "War of Annihilation" brewing in the West.

I think that while the Soviets had good commanders and forces in the East, the war against Japan would first result in too many troops being too far from Germany--perhaps two months away in China. A major drawdown of forces would be the first move...but we've forgotten that the Japanese with a full scale war are going to force Soviet Garrisons to guard much of the Pacific Coastline.

If Germany can exploit this distraction and the dearth of Soviet Forces by grabbing Moscow and Leningrad--the Soviets will not have the resources to spare a large army against Japan while somehow stopping Germany.

That said, the IJA getting smashed up by the Red Army will appear to be a national disgrace--and it would force the IJA to modernize. But they would have gotten very lucky...

 

[CanadianGoose]

Garrison duty is completely different from war.

Far East was almost as close to "routine garrison duty" as service in your average Northern Afghan province. Not real war, but pretty damn close. Even Barbarossa unleashed, Soviets considered FE service "frontline duty" (as far as benefit eligibility for officers and NCOs is concerned).

The Soviets may have substantial reserves in the RFE, but they could not possibly sustain two wars 13 time zones apart, each involving a million men. Stalin was cautious by nature, this would be crazy by anyone's standard.

In case you did not notice, Finnish war, even in it's OTL form, ended late in winter, and Stalin's original plan was to wrap it up before X-mas 1939. Taking into account that even most crushing Soviet defeat at Khalkhin-Gol isn't likely to trigger Big War immediately (both sides need to prepare troops for showdown), I think there's a fair chance Stalin will try to play his Finnish gambit.

Soviet victory at Khalkhin Gol wasn't ignored by Hitler, he was completely ignorant of it because both sides wanted to keep it secret.

Nope, Soviets made a pretty big deal out of this conflict. It was widely used for propaganda purposes.

Japan would win this war only because the events raging in Europe would go supercritical for the Soviet Union--and a war caused by inappropriate border skirmishing leading to an all-out war is going to be the war that Stalin would give in on, compared to the "War of Annihilation" brewing in the West.

So basically you're discussing scenario when Japanese are attacking when Soviets appear to be but a step from abyss, let's say December 1941. That's quite different from "Japanese winning Khalkhin Gol", don't you think?

we've forgotten that the Japanese with a full scale war are going to force Soviet Garrisons to guard much of the Pacific Coastline.

Well, have you ever been anywhere near this coastline? It is nice scenery of taiga forest growing on high craggy hills (sometimes we can call those mountains), completely unsuitable for any large-scale warfare. Even today it is mostly undeveloped and whatever few settlements are there they're not linked by anything more substantial that coastal shipping and seasonal roads. Soviets just wouldn't bother to protect those areas. However, few places worth defending (Vladivostok, for example), are some of toughest fortresses known. Sevastopol had been considered second-rank fortress comparing to Vladivostok, and Red Army defended Sevastopol against Germans for a year.

 

[Mostlyharmless]

The POD suggested at the start of the thread is simply that the Japanese win at Khalkhin Gol (Nomonhan). However, I would like to speculate on how Japan could have won with the excuse that the consequences may depend on the course of the battle. A first glance suggests that it may be quite difficult to produce a Japanese victory. The Japanese forces were heavily outnumbered by forces that possessed more and better artillery and many more and better tanks. The Japanese had few anti-tank guns and the vulnerability of their infantry to tanks was increased because they were fighting in good tank country without many useful natural obstacles. Their problems, especially with artillery, were greatly worsened by their lack of motor transport so that, although they were closer to their bases than the Soviet forces, they quickly began to lack all supplies, especially artillery ammunition. By bad luck, they intended to defend the lower east side of Khalkhin Gol, helping their enemies to observer their positions. Finally they had fewer if slightly better aircraft. By this point we may begin to feel that the Japanese forces did well to inflict heavy casualties on the Soviets while several small units actually escaped, although generally after suffering heavy loses.

Clearly, we need to either cause the Soviet forces to perform much worse than OTL or the Japanese better or make both changes. An obvious method would be to replace Zhukov by a team of Kliment Voroshilov and Lev Mekhlis. Would that be enough? Probably not although it is always unwise to underestimate the power of stupidity. My best idea so far does not even have a battle near the Khalkhin Gol as a really bad commander might doubt if enough supplies could be delivered to such an out of the way place and decide to counter the Japanese incursion in the west by a direct attack from near the main base at Vladivostok across the border into Korea and Manchukuo. Committing large forces into heavily wooded hills and mountains with few roads should minimize the superiority in artillery and tanks while offering the Japanese every chance to use a combination of well dug in defences and night attacks by small units. I would welcome other suggestions.

Improving the Japanese performance is more difficult. Simply sending more troops does not help because they run out of ammunition quicker. One route is for the IJA to create an elite force with significantly more motor transport, tanks, artillery and anti-tank weapons than the 23rd Infantry Division plus parts of the 7th Infantry Division and the mechanised brigade actually committed. How could the IJA have equipped such a force to give themselves a reasonable chance?

The Japanese did not have anything like enough trucks to replace horses in the IJA but they could probably have found enough for just the units involved in KH. OTL they launched a much larger operation in central China aimed at taking Changsha immediately after the Khalkhin Gol battle. Moving the POD earlier, the Japanese could have simply built more trucks. To compensate, they might have not built such an extensive network of railways in Manchuria. Railways are more efficient than trucks if you can predict where you are going to need supplies and used coal, which was available, rather than oil that had to be imported. They also contributed to the economic development of Manchukuo. However, Khalkhin Gol (and every other war involving the IJA before 1945) revealed the weakness of choosing railways. The well known POD of Japan finding oil in Manchuria, for example at Daqing, to avoid the need to attack the Dutch East Indies would have the less obvious effect of favouring investment in armoured and motorized units.

The Japanese were inferior in tank numbers and effectiveness. The Type 89 and Type 95 medium and light tanks were poor, although the Type 97 medium tank was not bad by 1939 standards. Unfortunately, while the Japanese initially had more than a hundred tanks with their forces at Khalkhin Gol only four were Type 97s. If we want the Japanese tank force to make a major contribution, more Type 97 tanks are needed, probably at least a second brigade equipped entirely with Type 97s. Fortunately, these could be newly produced and might arrive on or just before the 20th August. In fact, we would also like some alien space bats to intervene when the Type 97 is put into production to choose a high velocity gun, such as the 47 mm with which it was fitted after the lessons of Khalkhin Gol had been absorbed. We need alien space bats because the 47 mm was designed after examination of the Soviet 45 mm and reports of its use at Khalkhin Gol. However, we could assume that intelligence had reported the French S35 and Char-B1 tanks armour when the S35 was being evaluated in 1935 and that it was assumed that other European powers including the USSR would field similar tanks. The French 47 mm SA35 might have been bought as the best available and the decision taken to fit one tank in four with the 75 mm actually used in the Type 3 Chi-Nu, despite the lack of a machine gun. To get more than 100 such tanks deployed by August 20th, we only need a very slight acceleration of production over OTL if almost all are sent to Khalkhin Gol.

We also need to give the Japanese forces better artillery and anti-tank weapons. One possibility would be if the magical "someone" had decided that rather than supplying anti-tank guns, howitzers and anti-aircraft guns to a very few motorized divisions, a single gun such as the German 88 mm FlaK 36 can do all three jobs. Obviously the FlaK 36 is heavier than all the alternatives but perhaps a licence to produce the SdKfz 7 half track would be part of the deal. At Khalkhin Gol it would have been in demand in all three roles and its long range in counter battery fire and against tanks might make a difference if around 100 had been present. The same magical "someone" in 1935 also realises that there is nothing available that infantry can carry that can stop a S35 or Char-B1. Assisted by the alien space bats, he focusses on the hollow charge effect and designs something like the Panzerfaust. This would have huge appeal to the IJA as a low cost weapon allowing a courageous soldier to destroy any tank or many fortifications. Production is ordered and while only a few are available in May 1939, a few thousand are available by August.

Finally, Japan could have concentrated and used much more air power before and during the decisive battle at the end of August. Simply using the aircraft finally used in September earlier would have made a significant difference. However, our alien space bats can do better. Throwing in the IJNAF doubles Japan's power. The trick is for Yamamoto, who supported aircraft procurement, to persuade the Navy Minister, Yonai, that showing the usefulness of the IJNAF against Russia will allow the Navy to do better in its endless battle with the IJA for funds. Note that this would be easy if the Navy's oil came from Daqing.

Unlike most posters, I suspect that the conflict would have ended much as OTL because neither power wanted a serious conflict. Stalin's attention was on Europe and Japan's on China. If Japan had felt that it had won, it might have been willing to weaken its forces in Manchuria in order to try to finish the war in China. Motorized logistical success at Khalkhin Gol might suggest that the use of similar forces could take Changsha etc. Thus the IJA might demand more funds for trucks, implying fewer battleships. However, they might agree to allow the IJN funds to spend on aircraft. The consequences are hard to predict.

Only the use of hollow charge weapons would likely have significant consequences elsewhere, giving Japan, Germany (as their attach[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]é[/FONT] would be shown the battlefield) and the USSR some military advantage. This would change Barbarossa but detailed prediction is difficult. Of course, Japan might be more willing to strike north in 1941. However, an American threat to cut off oil supplies might prevent that actually happening. Even so, Stalin might leave more forces in the Far East in 1941.

ps. The consequences for Syracuse University are also unclear.

 

[Mostlyharmless]

Just another thought. Another way to improve the Japanese chances would be if the Japanese infantry had more fire power. Our ASBs can organize this by providing some misleading intelligence in about 1933 that the Fedorov Avtomat rifle was being issued to some Soviet forces (OTL this actually happened during the Winter War). This was an early Russian automatic rifle using the Japanese Arisaka 6.5/50 round whose production had stopped in 1924. Thus a Japanese automatic rifle design is requested using the reduced charge 6.5 mm ammunition already used by the Type 11 LMG. The designer is clever and places the gas operated system on top of the barrel which is thus in line with the stock so that recoil does not lift the barrel too much. At the same time the Type 11 LMG is redesigned competently (not as OTL) so that a reliable Type 96 LMG is created as using the reduced charge 6.5 mm ammunition. (Is it ASB to make a reduced charge round which is more conical to make it less likely that dirt can stick between rounds? The problem is that the round is no longer interchangeable with that used for the original Type 38 rifle.)

The idea of an assault rifle is accepted because it fits the IJA's philosophy of attack at night and close range combat. Naturally we have the forces with the new equipment used at Khalkhin Gol. Clearly this might impress the Soviet "observers" and perhaps lead to an earlier AK47.

 

[CanadianGoose]

Lotsa ASB helping Japanese

It seem to me that you're saying that Japan's only chance to succeed is to have someone ISOTed from future, with this certain someone basically handwaving Japanese development 10 years ahead of Rest of the World. I have to agree, Red Army of 1939 vintage stands no chance against force equipped and trained using lessons of WWII and Korean war combined.

 

[Jukra]

If we want the Japanese tank force to make a major contribution, more Type 97 tanks are needed, probably at least a second brigade equipped entirely with Type 97s.

I think a poor tank is worse than no tanks at all. How about dumping the entire Japanese tank force and producing heavy field artillery and motor transportation with the resources saved?

 

[Tuhachevskey]

how did they win it?

 

[Mostlyharmless]

I think a poor tank is worse than no tanks at all. How about dumping the entire Japanese tank force and producing heavy field artillery and motor transportation with the resources saved?

The Type 97 was not too bad. 33 mm armour on the turret compared to 30 mm for the contemporary Pz-III, a two man turret like the T-34 (OK German tanks were better with three men). Fairly good mobility and a Diesel engine. The worse problem was a very low velocity gun despite a better gun being specified but (I think) not being developed succesfully. However, there were only four Type 97s sent to the battle.

It seem to me that you're saying that Japan's only chance to succeed is to have someone ISOTed from future, with this certain someone basically handwaving Japanese development 10 years ahead of Rest of the World. I have to agree, Red Army of 1939 vintage stands no chance against force equipped and trained using lessons of WWII and Korean war combined.

It is not quite as bad as that but it is hard to imagine that just changing the commanders will change the result if the battle is fought near Khalkhin Gol (i.e. Yamashita versus Voroshilov and Mekhlis), although I may be underestimating the power of incompetence.

The ASB aspect is the multiple improvements to Japanese power. The individual PODs are quite likely. For example, the Italians did employ thieves to steal data (OTL taking the American diplomatic code). Say they sent someone to steal plans of the S35 and this individual, being dishonest, also sells photographs of the plans to the Japanese attache. The S35s armour was 60 mm, just weaker than the Sherman's. OTL the Sherman persuaded the IJA to fit the Type 90 75 mm gun to the Type 97. We can assume that some whispers of the Soviet "Deep Battle" idea reach the IJA at the same time (together with a report on Guderian's ideas) to combine to induce panic.

Some believer in the Japanese Spirit (Yamato Damashii) might have suggested a hollow charge lunge mine to deal with tanks with thick armour (Monroe had described the effect in 1880). Someone more concerned with maintaining morale might then have considered other ways of delivering the charge.

OTL the IJA did copy the German 88 mm that was captured from the Chinese. It is not clear why they did not simply buy it two years earlier (probably the Germans demanded too much money but they might have considered that a strong Japan was in their interest).

I don't know how many improvements are needed for Japan to win.

Looking at consequences, if Zhukov's tank attack is stopped, it will favour distributing tanks amongst infantry. However, Pavlov won that argument OTL.

Can I suggest an off the wall consequence. If the IJA is confident that it can stop the Soviet army, it will not be so interested in a Tripartite Pact.

 

[Kome]

I think a poor tank is worse than no tanks at all. How about dumping the entire Japanese tank force and producing heavy field artillery and motor transportation with the resources saved?

It would be even better if someone spills the secret of shaped charges sooner.

Yeah a poor tank would drain more oil and more resources (in production and development) and still get destroyed.