WI Frederick V dies 1620 (or Thirty Years War is much shorter)

[John Fredrick Parker]

What if Frederick V failed to escape Prague after White Mountain (in 1620)? Or what if he died sometime in 1622, after the Palatine fell? Would this be enough to prevent what would become the Thirty Years War -- the devastation of Germany, the Westphalia system, etc? Put another way:

There is bound to be some sort of conflict or even civil war, but there is no reason why Germany had to face virtual destruction where a third of the population died. Both Britain and France experienced religious conflict, but it never got so bad as in Germany. So "no Thirty Years War" does not mean "no war." Just that any such war lacks the destructive qualities of the historical war.

It's entirely possible that the Habsburgs might have won the war early before Sweden entered the conflict - before Gustavus Adolphus entered, they had practically won after all.

If Frederick V had given up after his defeat at White Mountain, or if he died during the battle, or if Ferdeninad II and he accepted some kind of deal where Frederick abdicated, but his family retained the Palatinate the war stood a very good chance of ending sometime in the 1620s. The war might have lasted only five, eight, or ten years.

The rest of the war would have been averted, and a new constitutional order increasing Habsburg centralized control yet preserving some sort of Protestantism in an increasing Catholic Germany would have become the new status quo.

 

[Monter]

The Thirty Years War was such a clusterfuck...

Simply put, I don't think Frederick's death or capture'll end much stuff, there are too many circumstances for the continual of the conflict and too many people (outside) that want it. White Mountain didn't end the overall war because despite being the igniting point, Bohemia wasn't the beginning and end of all the involved ambitions, Frederick's ancestral homeland, the Paltinate, had everyone's eyes too, the newly-granted Elector Maximilian wanted those lands for himself, as it was Wittelbach patrimony and his kin there were "heretic traitors", also "more clay = great!" so he'll not stop at Bohemia, he'll demand Imperial support to acquire the Palatinate for his efforts; also there are the Spanish Habsburgs, the Paltinate was in the middle of the fabled Spanish Road, having a protestant stronghold there wasn't interesting for them on the planned restart of the Eighty Years War, plus having a extra base on the Rhineland would put more pressure on the Dutch. Third, there is also the reason conflict didn't end after Brunswick's forces were crushed: the Danes, granted they were crushed by Wallenstein, but it shows that Frederick was just a piece in a much bigger game that was the TYW.

And last, but not less, there is one of the main reasons the war itself lasted 30 years: stubbornness. The chronology of the TYW had several moments where a side won big, but pressed on to get maximum gains, only to get stalled, if not reversed, the tide of war. Before the swedish intervention the Catholic side won big, but Ferdinand II issued the Edict of Restitution to restore ALL church land confiscated since the reformation, it wasn't something the Protestant princes (even some that were anti-Frederick, like the Saxons) would swallow, such confusion and refusal to negotiate gave Richelieu everything he need: time to recover and prepare. So... one of the main problems with peace the person of Ferdinand II himself.

 

[Behemoth]

I'll have to agree that the Thirty Years War was a clusterfuck. Another thing that should be noted is that the French were not too keen on the Habsburgs having territory surrounding their country. Granted, it's a bit awkward for a large Catholic kingdom such as France to provide support to the Protestants but it makes some sense on why they did.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

The Edict of Restitution was passed 1629, over a decade into the war; those preceding years, iirc, did not go well for the Protestants. So could an earlier Catholic victory that didn't overstep in such a fashion be possible?

I'll have to agree that the Thirty Years War was a clusterfuck. Another thing that should be noted is that the French were not too keen on the Habsburgs having territory surrounding their country. Granted, it's a bit awkward for a large Catholic kingdom such as France to provide support to the Protestants but it makes some sense on why they did.

Wasn't this after 1635, when the Catholic and Protestant factions finally made peace?

 

[Behemoth]

IIRC, the French (Cardinal Richelieu, in particular) had sent subsidies to both the Danish and the Swedes prior to 1635. Granted, the support was on a diplomatic and monetary scale but it was still some support. If I am not mistaken, the Dutch also provided some support as well.