Spectre of Europe - An Alternative Paris Commune Timeline

[lukedalton]

Good on Italy, although remember that the neutral little Kingdom of Illyria means that much of that 'natural Italian coast' Orlando was so concerned about OTL isn't actually going to be up for grabs. I must say, actually, that given that Italy has a much better fleet and vantage point in North Africa, assuming that the Commune will take control over Algeria may be a mistake...

But yes, I think in essence you are right - this has been a costly war but not as costly as OTL. Once it is finally over I'll post up some overall casualty and costs figures to compare with WWI OTL..

Doubtfoul, Orlando will go on for the Full Monty here and frankly i doubt that they will consider Illyria really neutral and a separate nation from the A-H (perception can trump reality). In any case, after dealing with Germany and A-H remnant, Illyria can be 'gently convinced' that giving up Dalmatia with a facesaving referendum and monetary compensation is much better to Italy simply coming and take it.
As said many nations in the Balkans will be worried about the italian meddling and future ( and i mean that the ink in the peace treaty will be still wet) attempt to extend her influence (Albania will be the next target and can be a motivation for ITTL formation of Jugoslavia)

 

[Reydan]

Doubtfoul, Orlando will go on for the Full Monty here and frankly i doubt that they will consider Illyria really neutral and a separate nation from the A-H (perception can trump reality). In any case, after dealing with Germany and A-H remnant, Illyria can be 'gently convinced' that giving up Dalmatia with a facesaving referendum and monetary compensation is much better to Italy simply coming and take it.
As said many nations in the Balkans will be worried about the italian meddling and future ( and i mean that the ink in the peace treaty will be still wet) attempt to extend her influence (Albania will be the next target and can be a motivation for ITTL formation of Jugoslavia)

Interesting. Genuine question - OTL were there enough Italians in Dalmatia and their other claims along the coast that a referendum would actually go in Italy's favor? Or would it need to be a 'fixed' one like some were in the period?

Albania is a mess in this timeline, split between Greece, Serbia, and Montenegro, so is a prime target for SOME form of intervention.

 

[diestormlie]

Vive la France.

Down with the Empires!

 

[lukedalton]

Interesting. Genuine question - OTL were there enough Italians in Dalmatia and their other claims along the coast that a referendum would actually go in Italy's favor? Or would it need to be a 'fixed' one like some were in the period?

Italian are in sizeble number in the city but the hinterland is pretty much slavic; so any referendum will need some fix. An agreement that Rome can live with it, can mean getting just the coast of all Dalmatia (basically what was annexed in WWII by Benny) as it mean less slavs ; maybe adding some special agreement/privilege regarding the use of Fiume facilities...but making very clear that Italy can simply take the territory and end it.

Albania is a mess in this timeline, split between Greece, Serbia, and Montenegro, so is a prime target for SOME form of intervention.

Oh boy, it will not be very pretty

Edit: regarding Algeria; well much depend on how the Commune behave, the most probable thing for Italy to ask is some border adjustment and some agreement over the use of ports and commerce; but i doubt that they will want administer French North Africa as it can be too problematic.

 

[Falecius]

Interesting. Genuine question - OTL were there enough Italians in Dalmatia and their other claims along the coast that a referendum would actually go in Italy's favor? Or would it need to be a 'fixed' one like some were in the period?

Albania is a mess in this timeline, split between Greece, Serbia, and Montenegro, so is a prime target for SOME form of intervention.

I don't recall exact figures, but Austrian censuses give a high mark of Italian population at 12.5% over the whole of Dalmatia, and the figure was lower IOTL by the 1910's (around 5% IIRC). These people were overwhelmingly concentrated in some coastal cities, primarily but not exclusively Zadar and Sibenik. The countryside was and is overwhelmingly Slavic. However, Austrian census figures had an obvious interest in showing as little Italians as possible. So yes, a genuine plebiscite is unlikely to give the area to Italy and it is not easy to define an area with large Italian majorities, but probably Italy can get away with having a major portion of the coast with a conveniently arranged plebiscite. The interior (and even non urban coastal areas) are unlikely to go along willingly.

 

[Reydan]

Chapter One Hundred and Eleven – Resolutions in the Reichstag.

“Our war must continue – if only in self defence”

Matthias Erzeberger, Chairman, Zentrum

“You have been made to fight for a war that you did not believe in…now fight for a peace you so desperately need!”

Sitzkrieg Putsch Leader Gunther Hergett

Whilst the situation at the front might have been dire, with mutinies and retreats dominating a panicked general staff, the German Home Front was more divided. True, shortages and heavy losses had caused many to weary of the conflict. But decades of fear of the socialist menace, and the shock of uprisings in Poland and the Ukraine, infected the German populace with a sense of terror.

‘Your homes will be ransacked, your children re-educated, your belongings re-distributed, your names erased’ ran one panicked headline in a Stuttgart newspaper. Sales of personal handguns, hunting rifles, and even knives and pocket-blades all spiked. Well suited men and civil servants took to carrying weapons in public and women’s domestic magazines carried full page adverts featuring locks, latches, and other security devices for the home. Naval forces in Stettin were in crisis, with soldiers freely fraternising with workers and civilians in the city and ignoring their officers. The Berlin garrison, wrote the Justice Minister, ‘is in a state of torpor – paralyzed by politics’.

As early as January 1920 popular enthusiasm for self-defence had seen the Interior Ministry support the creation of the local “Landwehr” throughout the country where those men too old, too young, or in reserved occupations could be gathered and trained. In reality many were poorly provided for and chaotically run but in major cities some Landwehr units could be highly motivated. They found particular purchase amongst patriotic teenagers especially as membership of a socialist party or trade union barred one from participation. Indeed even members of the Government-supporting pro-war Social Democrats were forbidden from joining Landwehr units despite the Party’s protests in the Reichstag.

The Reichstag itself was a hotbed of tension. Catholics across Germany were terrified of being persecuted or purged by the socialists, whipped up by the Papacy’s anti-Communard rhetoric, and the Catholic Centre Party Zentrum that dominated the Government’s wartime coalition was as fearful as the conservative right. So fearful infact that, when they learned that the Chancellor Prince Max von Baden had been approaching the Kaiser about peace talks they demanded his resignation and, when that was not forthcoming, censured him.

The Reichstag voted, on 21st May 1920, to continue the war by 337 to 60. Zentrum was the driving force, with conservative parties supporting. The Chairman, Matthias Erzeberger, made an impassioned speech damning the cowardice of the army and calling the German people to arms to defend the Fatherland. The SPD split, with the leadership voting for the war and only a rump rejecting the premise. ‘The death-knell of a dying sham party’ opined Rosa Luxembourg, currently in hiding in Bavaria. But as the Kaiser, who refused to return from his Headquarters on the Oder, demurred on the issue, groups met in secret in the Reichstag.

The Reichstag members, of course, did not have the final say over the conduct of the war but, in those heated days of panic and rumour, the vote caused chaos. Demonstrations filled the streets and, on 23rd May Prince von Baden was “arrested” by a patriotic Landwehr unit in Berlin. Soldiers from the Berlin Garrison refused to come out to guard the Reichstag from the crowds however, the units shot through with Sitzkrieg ideology, and the Government relied more and more on Landwehr volunteers who clashed with trade unionists and raided socialist newspapers and clubs.

Troops loyal to the 27th May Putsch prepare to seize the Berlin Stock Exchange​

In the cold dawn of 27th May Erzeberger made his move. Soldiers, Landwehr, police officers, and ordinary civilians with yellow armbands to denote their loyalty to the putsch pilled out of trucks in the centre of Berlin to seize railway stations, telephone exchanges, and government buildings.

‘A Democratic Coup to Save Germany’ was what Erzeberger announced from the windows of a downtown hotel later that morning. ‘We WILL save Germany from socialism. We WILL fight on, despite the cowardice of the Heer’.

Across the capital, and across Germany, the shockwaves of this Putsch rippled outwards through a divided and agonized society.

 

[diestormlie]

And who is in a position to stop them? Are the German Left armed? Will the Heer rouse itself from Sitzkrieg? Or will Anarchy reign, Berlin falling into chaos? What of the rest of the country? What the hell does the Kaiser think of this? What are the foreign reactions?

My my, so many questions...

Gods, I love this TL.

 

[Salvador79]

And who is in a position to stop them? Are the German Left armed? Will the Heer rouse itself from Sitzkrieg? Or will Anarchy reign, Berlin falling into chaos? What of the rest of the country? What the hell does the Kaiser think of this? What are the foreign reactions?

My my, so many questions...

Gods, I love this TL.

Me too.
Nobody could stop the Landwehr for now except reality. The right is on the offense now, the left will duck and cower, the emperor comply. Only when the Landwehr realises that the Army did not give up for nothing will the momentum reverse...

 

[Reydan]

Chapter One Hundred and Twelve – A Vacuum at the Centre.

“Any political activity was prohibited for us socialists…we had to organise illegally and under the most dangerous conditions…but the challenge of 1920 could not be forestalled…we had to act!”

Karl Retzlaw, KPD (German Communard Party)

“Act! Act! Courageously, decisively and constantly… disarm the counter-revolution, arm the masses, occupy all positions of power. Act quickly!”

Rosa Luxemburg, “May Crisis!” 1920.

By the end of the 27th May it looked, to many, as if the Democratic Coup had succeeded. Berlin was relatively quiet, crowds dispersed by Landwehr and Police units, and the conspirators were in control of all key buildings. Yet even as politicians met in the Reichstag to determine their course of action, the seeds of disaffection could be seen. For one thing, the continued reluctance of the Army Garrison to leave its barracks was a major cause of concern for some Parliamentarians. There had, throughout the afternoon, been rumours of gunshots at the barracks for the Berlin Garrison the first signs, for those who understood them, of the Sitzkrieg movement turning violent. Meanwhile there were also ominous reports of midnight meetings planned for the transportation workers’ unions in the city. Although the coup was strong in Berlin and the Prussian region more generally, its hold over the provinces was much weaker. Efforts were made to recruit Landwehr units and encourage loyal military garrisons to turn out for the coup over the days following the 27th but it was a slow and confused process. One local city leader, for instance, selected because of his seeming competence turned out to have been a mental patient with a history of institutionalisation who devoted much of his time to bombarding Berlin with complaints about blocked toilets in his native Stuttgart. Support for the Coup in the eastern borders facing Polish and Ukrainian troops was not matched across the country.

The issue that concerned many Germans, though, as 28th May dawned and the news of the successful coup in Berlin sank in, was the whereabouts of the Kaiser. There had been no news from the Western front for days, beyond the usual panicked reports of retreats and surrenders infecting more and more of the Heer, and the vacuum created by the monarchy’s silence paralysed those parts of the executive opposed to the coup. At least for those on the right of politics.

The German left, galvanised by both the collapse of the SPD’s parliamentary strategy and the seeming triumph of international socialism, was at boiling point. Between 27th and 30th May clandestine meetings of the KPD spiked to over four thousand across Germany, scattered in all corners and provinces of the country. A purge or be purged mentality was gripping the fevered minds of many – there were near constant rumours of Government purges and assassinations recalled one local organiser in Bremen. Many KPD branches found their “secret” meetings invaded by sympathetic Sitzkrieg soldiers and sailors, trade unionists, and ordinary citizens sick of the war.

But it was the news of the disaster at Metz, which reached many on the morning of 31st, that pushed the disparate factions into open conflict across Germany. The Kaiser, it turned out, was one of 122,000 soldiers swept into French arms by the collapse of the defences around Metz. A combination of rapid French advance, poor Germany artillery support and lack of munitions generally, low morale, and strategic mistakes had seen the 19th Field Army and remnants of the 4th Field Army bottled up into the city of Metz in mid-May and slowly choked to surrender by the encircling French. On the morning of 31st, when his country began to tear itself apart, the Kaiser was in fact sitting down to breakfast with members of the Committee of Public Safety far from the frontline in Paris.

Revolutionary soldiers and sailors in Bremen 31st May 1920​

With the suspicion that a general armistice might be signed imminently both factions broke out into an open power struggle as they raced to seize control across the nation. Communes were declared in Munich, Bremen, Kiel, Hamburg, Gotha, Leipzig and dozens of other cities and towns, whilst the Ruhr was gripped by revolution. The General Strike, called by the KPD and the Trade Unions, paralysed Coup forces but they, too, were able to rely on a conservative groundswell of support. Whilst the capital of Bavaria went Red, with Socialists and Sitzkrieg units in the streets, the surrounding province went Yellow with Landwehr and other volunteers rallying to King Rupprecht of Bavaria, back from the front on sick-leave at the time. Throughout Germany chaos reigned as socialists clashed with anti-socialist forces for control whilst on the Western Frontier more and more army groups were surrendering to French soldiers.

 

[Mike Louis]

What a turn of events, looks like the French gave the Germans the receipt for the OTL Battle of Sedan.

 

[diestormlie]

And... Chaos. Everywhere.

Though remember that the Anti-Socialists don't have France on their Side...

 

[Reydan]

Chapter One Hundred and Thirteen - The Terrible Fury of the Mountain

'Gas! GAS! Quick, boys! - An ecstasy of fumbling,
Fitting the clumsy helmets just in time;
But someone still was yelling out and stumbling
And flound'ring like a man in fire or lime ...
Dim, through the misty panes and thick green light,
As under I green sea, I saw him drowning.

In all my dreams, before my helpless sight,
He plunges at me, guttering, choking, drowning.'

Wilfred Owen

It had originally been used to kill rats in the sewers of Paris. And to make paint which adorned the furniture and walls of the rich in the last century until, that is, the poisonous qualities that made it so useful to the sewer-workers had been discovered. It came in crystals of a fine, emerald, green but when turned into a spray had a more bluish tinge. It was called Vert de Paris. Paris Green.

Originally the Committee of Public Safety had ordered it created in bulk as a last-ditch weapon to deny the Germans on their approach to Paris. Now, with the war in the east crumbling, it was transferred on nocturnal trains to the south. To break apart the Spanish and Royalist armies that were clinging to the territory they had wrenched from the Communard regime in the Gospel Landings of April 1919. In truth, the it was the Montagnards who were driving this new Southern Offensive. The three remaining radicals on the Committee were increasingly driven by the fever-pitch of anxiety and paranoia that was gripping the country. Much like the 1790s Reign of Terror, which had peaked months after the main threat to the Revolution had occurred, the victories in the east against Germany filled many Frenchmen and women with a blend of hope and fear; hope that the war would be over and fear that this could all be snatched from their grasp at any moment by enemies foreign and domestic. The meaty sentences handed out by LaGrange in Vannes in April 1920, that so enraged British public opinion in the run-up to the crucial 1920 General Election was matched by the fury that her colleague and lover Olivier Martel imposed on the Royalist still holding their lines in the south.

A Communard Soldier prepares for a gas attack, June 1920 near the Basque Country​

The morning of the 3rd May saw 77 French Aircraft lift off from behind French lines and fly low towards Royalist frontlines north of the town of Montélimar. Held by units of the Third Royalist Army, the lines around the town were garrisoned largely by North African and Senegalese conscripts. More and more of the Royalist troops, and indeed their Spanish allies, had been drawn from colonial forces especially after the grinding stalemate of the Southern Front had seen so many of the minority white population of the Kingdom of France lost as casualties. Now, as aircraft began to buzz low overhead and a blue-green shimmer began to form slowly falling downwards, panic spread throughout the conscripts. Those who didn't run in the first instances were disorientated but, for the first few hours, felt fine. It was only later, when the gas began to interact with their bloodstreams. Still, the ripple effect of this new type of weapon caused the frontline to collapse as Communard troops, enveloped in terrifying gas helmets, rammed home an aggressive mass human wave attack to capitalize on the panic.

Spanish and Royalist lines were already weakened by hunger and morale problems, with the Italian Fleet now more effectively disrupting supply lines across the Western Mediterranean. Now colonial troops never sold on their purpose in this awful new industrial war began to surrender in droves. Marseilles was liberated within a week, the Basque country overrun by the end of the month, and Catalonia reinforced by the beginning of June. Throughout it all Communard troops were heavy-handed in their reliance on gas. 'Deputy-on-Mission Martel is at the forefront of all of this' recorded the New York Times correspondent and the British Times photographer captured a rather chilling picture of Martel in a gas helmet like his men standing amid the front-line troops, urging them onwards into the blue-green haze. He was relentless in driving the invaders back, seemingly carrying little about the horrifying effects of this new weapon on the unprotected Spanish and Royalists. 'More than once' recalled one aide-de-camp of the local area commander 'I saw him follow the front-line forward and dispatch suffering casualties of the gas with his sidearm personally'.

By June the Commune had restored its borders in the South, with thousands of invading soldiers marshaled into huge prison camps. Among them, alongside thousands upon thousands of African and Arab conscripts, was the young King of France Henry VI, taken prisoner near Orange in the initial panics of the gas attacks. Faced with a changing political landscape across the water, the Communards were now at the crossroads of whether to strike south into a hostile Spain and further the revolution or make peace and end the years of bloody war.

 

[Not Henry G.]

Wow. I was always a bit put off by the Commune but was overall on their side. After this...not so much. Seems needlessly cruel, like OTL Italy against Ethiopia

 

[RyuDrago]

Well, goodbye to Germany it seems to be. From wank to screw in exactly 50 years, impressive feat.

I can't believe to have ignored this so long, subscribed of course!

 

[lukedalton]

Martel seem to have a bright future...i doubt that others (and i mean the rest of France population at least) will have the same destiny, call me pessimist but the man give me some very bad vibe.

Post-war Europe will be interesting...and frankly it will be a scenario very rarely see in this site; with socialist France being the premier continental power, followed by a non-fascist Italy as the other big guy of the continent. Difficult to see how the relations between the two nation will go; sure liberals (and probably moderate socialist) will be a little wary of our gallic cousins and probably the sentiment will be reciprocate in France...still you don't fight this kind of war without developing ties and relations that go both way and a lot behind mere politics

 

[RyuDrago]

Well, despite I enjoy seeing a stronger Italy TTL, I think the other big power of Europe would be Russia whatever side will won in the end, because I still bet on German disintegration. Eastern Europe will likely fall under her sphere once the new Russia would finally reassert from the wounds of the civil war.

Also because normally, French wanks would be paired by Stronk Russia.

But I really hope Britain would become further active on the Old World. It's TTL real superpower after all.

 

[lukedalton]

Well, despite I enjoy seeing a stronger Italy TTL, I think the other big power of Europe would be Russia whatever side will won in the end, because I still bet on German disintegration. Eastern Europe will likely fall under her sphere once the new Russia would finally reassert from the wounds of the civil war.

Also because normally, French wanks would be paired by Stronk Russia.

But I really hope Britain would become further active on the Old World. It's TTL real superpower after all.

Seem that Russia had other problem, the great part of the internal genre, for the foreesable future; so at least for a while it will be out of any type of 'great game'. The United Kingdom can try to court Italy (also due to her strategic position right in the middle of the mediterrean and with control of both side of the Sicily straits), if she suceed in create a wedge between Paris and Rome (more possible if hardliner come to power in one or both nation)...still it's probable that at both population level there will be some lucklustre enthusiam towards conflict with the former ally.
Continuing speaking for Rome, well for now she will find very satisfied and without any real target/desire of more claim; basically with this war all the irredentist goal has been achievied (hell, Savoy and Nice, plus Corsica has also been annexed ITTL) finally taking the 'Risorgimento' to his rightfull conclusion...sorry Illyria but nobody will care or buy your neutrality and frankly i doubt that Serbia will let pass her occasion to get more clay that she claim.

 

[Reydan]

Wow. I was always a bit put off by the Commune but was overall on their side. After this...not so much. Seems needlessly cruel, like OTL Italy against Ethiopia

Possibly - although I'd based the accounts much more on conventional OTL gas attacks from 1914-1918. Albeit with the addition of aerial delivery. The Commune's main drive here is to end the war asap.

Well, goodbye to Germany it seems to be. From wank to screw in exactly 50 years, impressive feat.

I can't believe to have ignored this so long, subscribed of course!

Thank you!

 

[Reydan]

Well, despite I enjoy seeing a stronger Italy TTL, I think the other big power of Europe would be Russia whatever side will won in the end, because I still bet on German disintegration. Eastern Europe will likely fall under her sphere once the new Russia would finally reassert from the wounds of the civil war.

Also because normally, French wanks would be paired by Stronk Russia.

But I really hope Britain would become further active on the Old World. It's TTL real superpower after all.

Seem that Russia had other problem, the great part of the internal genre, for the foreesable future; so at least for a while it will be out of any type of 'great game'. The United Kingdom can try to court Italy (also due to her strategic position right in the middle of the mediterrean and with control of both side of the Sicily straits), if she suceed in create a wedge between Paris and Rome (more possible if hardliner come to power in one or both nation)...still it's probable that at both population level there will be some lucklustre enthusiam towards conflict with the former ally.
Continuing speaking for Rome, well for now she will find very satisfied and without any real target/desire of more claim; basically with this war all the irredentist goal has been achievied (hell, Savoy and Nice, plus Corsica has also been annexed ITTL) finally taking the 'Risorgimento' to his rightfull conclusion...sorry Illyria but nobody will care or buy your neutrality and frankly i doubt that Serbia will let pass her occasion to get more clay that she claim.

Russia is just about stable now, with the Civil War over, but has lost considerable standing from where is was at the start of the war with China. Expect our focus to shift back eastwards in coming decades.

The relationship between Italy and France is a complex one and doubtless will get even trickier in the future.

UK and USA are going to feature in the next chapter as soon as I can get it written up.

As always, thanks for the comments!

 

[RyuDrago]

The relationship between Italy and France is a complex one and doubtless will get even trickier in the future.

As always, thanks for the comments!

Well as expected from allies of convenience. Albeit still less more scandalous and more digestible than other OTL pacts like the Molotov-Ribbentrop or the US-PRC detente against URSS.

I wonder if however Italy would accept a red Spain... Surely would be in their interest Paris grabbing Algers because A) hardly doubt Rome would miss the monarchist revanchist regime and would secure Tunisia;
B) catching some "mandates" from a partition could be nice.

By the way, I guess new republics would bloom in Europe soon...