Spanish-Portuguese War 1910

[NFR]

Well Grey, I'm almost sure some Australians (though maybe not New Zealanders) were involved in the Boer War. All the dominions at this point in time still regard themselves as "British" rather than distinctly "Canadian" or "Australian" or "New Zealander" (only South Africa being an exception where the local whites regard themselves as either "Boer" or "British"). Australia and New Zealand were involved in WWI even though that war started out as a European war and after the quick campaigns in the Pacific they sent soldiers to Europe. That was because they wanted to, out of a sense of being loyal and "British" so when the UK goes to war, they go too. Same applies here. I don't think I made Portuguese Timor a price of British intervention, insofar as the Portuguese would still rule it, but I suspect Australian influence in the half-island colony will be extremely strong after 1911.

Australians did fight in the Boer War, and was in fact widely hated by the Boers for that.

"Regarding Spain, Amedeo died in 1890 but his son, Emanuele Filiberto, the Duke of Aosta is alive and well, and IIRC often viewed himself as SUPERIOR to the King of Italy. He could well lead a strong faction in favour of intervention in Spain, with personal ambitions to reclaim his family's 'right' to the kingship, but more openly stating that Italy's national interests are at stake."

So we would have an Italian duke claiming the throne of Spain...would this bring about a de facto Italo-Spanish union kingdom? Also this would mean Italian involvement in Spain and war against Turkey...

Given the advance of nationalism at that time I think a union of two states is most unlikely, the political ramifications alone would be difficult to arrange, neither side would like to relinquish power.

Well, Portugal is going to be better off and stronger, not materially (at least not yet), but institutionally, as from 1911 there is now very little chance of potentially destabilizing coups and counter-coups and there will not be 46 governments in 16 years as Timestorm stated happened in OTL (that gives a rate of 2.87 or basically 3 governments per year- now that's unstable any way you slice it). I would wager on Portugal having now at most 8 governments or maybe even 4 or 6 in the next 15-16 years.
Surely Portugal is now devastated and I would wager that it would not recover to pre-war levels before 1913 at earliest, but the British now have a small stake in Portugal and have earned preferential trading rights with the Portuguese empire (which still has lots of valuable raw materials such as diamonds, sugar, etc.) and can now establish bases in Portuguese territory (so the Aussies can set up shop across the sea in Portuguese Timor and the British can set up bases in Portugal, the Azores, Madeira, and the colonies that in OTL became Angola, Mozambique and Guinea-Bissau.

As you said earlier, the Portuguese contribution to any WWI (which now seems less likely to occur in 1914 like it did in OTL as you said, but maybe in 1911) will probably be more of a strain on Britain than any help, but Portugal will probably not require direct British support to transport their soldiers as they would have borrowed, bought for cheap or maybe bought at standard price, old Royal Navy and Marine Nationale (French) transports, cruisers and battleships. The Portuguese will probably also now buy the new British and French weapons that have developed as a result of this war, so Britain will not need to exhaust herself too much in equipping the Portuguese Army (which is now experienced).
The Portuguese contribution will probably not be as good as I imagined, but it would probably be better than you stated for OTL Portugal (which is now different).

"I think your idea that Morocco will blow up greater is probably the way to go. There's a Spanish Civil War on, with Italy and Britain involved, presumably some degree of French involvement too. It will look to Germany like they can push and push and get their way, and don't forget this is only a couple of years after Russia backed down after Austria-Hungary's annexation of Bosnia-Hercegovina. Germany could well look on this and risk war...and get it, much to their surprise !"

Could do yes, only thing is I need to find out when the Moroccan crisis erupted in OTL.
Hmm..I wonder how a 1911 Franco-German war would play out? Isn't Schlieffen still alive? If Germany invades through Belgium then Britain may get involved as in OTL. But I am not sure if Russia will get involved (although it is probable). Austria-Hungary will probably side with Germany, but oddly enough Serbia may escape the flames as A-H has no real beef with it for now. The Balkans may be oddly peaceful, or the OTL states of the Balkan League may take this opportunity to beat up on Turkey as a separate war from the Moroccan Crisis one (or maybe the Balkan League, containing a number of Russian proteges will join the Allies).

*cough* The Entente was already in effect, and the absolutely last thing we would like to see would be Germany subduing France, so yes, Russia would almost certainly get involved.

 

[Loggerhead]

So no ideas anybody on the effects of this war?

Any ideas on how WWI (should it happen) would be affected by Portugal being in the Allied camp from the get-go?
I can imagine that having Portugal as an ally from the start would bring benefits in that
(1) the Allies would have even more resources (from Portugal and her colony) to draw upon
(2) The Portuguese Navy could work alongside the Royal Navy and MN (French Navy or Marine Nationale) and put up a more effective blockade of Germany and Austria-Hungary as well as easing the threat caused by the German u-boats.
(3) From the start German East Africa will be surrounded by hostile Allied colonies and the South Africans (after conquering German South-West Africa) will have more resources and men (Portuguese colonial soldiers) to attack the Germans with and more bases in Portuguese West Africa as well as North Rhodesia to attack from. This coupled with the King's African Riflemen and other British soldiers in British East Africa (Kenya and Uganda) and in Rhodesia could mean that German East Africa is conquered more quickly which in turn will free men and supplies for the fighting in France, the middle east and Italy. If the East African campaign is wound up in early 1916 or late 1915 then we could possibly see the transfer of most of the South African army to France, Egypt, Basra and Italy. This may then affect the Western Front
(4) Portuguese soldiers could be transported to fight in France from 1914 probably as a Portuguese Expeditionary Force.

The only drawback is that Portuguese entry so early may encourage the entry of other small powers in Europe into WWI.

Any thoughts on a possible Spanish Civil War between 1912 and 1919 and which European powers may get involved? Or what the outcome of any such Civil War might be?

I think Portugal may occupy Galicia to "protect it". The real reason why would be to weaken Spain so it could never invade Portugal again. I could also see Portugal making Catalonia and the Basque puppets too.

 

[TimTurner]

I think Portugal may occupy Galicia to "protect it". The real reason why would be to weaken Spain so it could never invade Portugal again. I could also see Portugal making Catalonia and the Basque puppets too.

You are replying to someone who has not been online since Bush was in his first term in office.