Sequel de Mayo (Cinco de Mayo, Vol. II)
- Thread starter KingSweden24
- Start date
Similar, but not quite
Correct - the early 1990s will be a very chaotic time, and not in an "end of history" Berlin Wall moment kind of way, either, even if on paper there's similarities.It seems a LOT of regimes collapse during the early 1990s. Its when we see Quebec officially gain its independence from Canada, the fall of the French State and its transition to whatever comes next, and now the fall of the Chilean Socialist Republic.
I think its also been stated that there is a significant economic collapse either in the 1980s or 90s, which would explain a lot of it. Either way - it seems like a pretty craptastic decade all in all!
Oil crisis, yes, so perhaps
I forget where exactly, but he's (in large part) correct that it isn't entirely a violent overthrow though it's not entirely peaceful either.
HehJust curious, when will the phrase "More useless than the Brazilian Ambassador to Santiago" come into being.
Interested to see what the Chilean socialists’ foreign policy will be. Right now the only other confirmed country to get a socialist revolution is Belgium and we’re not even sure if it will stick or if the royalists will shoot their way out of it. Personally I (loosely) predict a lot more international intervention by Chile in favor of Marxist causes (clandestinely or through volunteers of course). After all, “socialism in one country” was predicated on the idea that the USSR would push to spread revolution after it completed the project of becoming the stronghold of international communism. Chile is a lot more geographically isolated and less defensible than the former Russian Empire, though, so the “stronghold” can’t really be built and a policy of “the best defense is a good offense” may be the only way forward.
Great point.
On the flipside of course an isolated and, quite frankly, in many ways geopolitically irrelevant Chile may not inspire quite as much terror in other countries as Bolshevik Russia
Also less defensible. With the border adjustments in the treaty , I'm guessing that Argentina has the ability to hit Santiago with well defended Artillery from *within* Argentina. Chile will spend most of the middle of the 20th century trying to pull other countries to the left, but having not piss off Argentina. My honest guess is that the only reason that Argentina won't be able to conquer Chile during the middle of the 20th century by itself is having to keep a large amount of their army on the Brazilian border. Having said that, if Argentina is pissed off enough to invade Chile then *many* other countries are offering to hold Argentina's coat. Part of the issue here is that the world will apparently be someone more politically conservative than our own, with the United States and Argentina being considered politically *liberal* (in the OTL sense) countries with Chile being one of the few countries "beyond" them in that regard.
Now that we've gotten through the parts of the war that are going to change the Pacific coastline of the countries, time to go back and figure out which country spans the greatest latitude along the pacific, US, Mexico, Chile or Argentina. Actually it might change slightly within the decade as the US allows Mexico to keep whatever parts of Guatemala it has grabbed .
Depends what type of conservative we're talking about, granted - a great many socially right-wing governments will be less enamored with "liberal" ideas like ultra free-market capitalism and instead have a more paternalistic outlook that looks to a great many like state socialism. Basically, Bismarckian conservatism has a longer shelf life without the necessity that liberals and conservatives felt to join hands against the threat that Bolshevism represented, whereas here they can (and often are) be at loggerheads.
Republic Reborn
"...battles at Encinal and Catarina leaving the State Militia badly bloodied and in retreat. It is often contended that these two skirmishes in early April, which repulsed Loyalist forces northwards towards San Antonio while leaving the pathway to Corpus Christi wide open, were the main reason why the Provisional Government of the Republic of Texas was declared by Garner on April 17th - Texas Day today - but it was only one reason.
The other was that it was becoming increasingly clear that the bulk of Confederate forces were going to be unable to actually march back into Texas anytime soon to restore order, but also that there was no ending to the crisis that left Texas inside the Confederacy but with all her privileges. On the floor of the Confederate Senate, Hoke Smith - the powerful Georgian who had gone from Secretary of State to the upper chamber - proposed splitting Texas into two states upon "reconquest" to even out its land size comparative to other states but also thus to defang the ability of its populist Westerners to dominate the slaveholding, plantation-economy Easterners. To a Texas that was starting to see the proceeds of a modern industrial, oil and cattle economy, this was essentially a ploy to further isolate them. It also became clear, based on both Ferguson's rhetoric and that of President Vardaman, that every man and woman in Laredo would be hung as traitors, possibly even the children.
Garner and Sheppard remained ambivalent about exiting the Confederacy [1] formally but Gore gave a rousing address to the gathered men there speaking of "the fourth revolution" - 1776, 1836, and 1861 being the previous three - as the final destiny for "this Texan race." In his view, Texas had been forged in the fires of secession and independence in some form from Great Britain, Mexico and the United States, and it was time to take "the last great leap into the freedom our forefathers deeded us - we are the generation that will finish the task!"
And so, on April 17th, 1916, Garner stood before a gathering of beleaguered soldiers waving the Blue Bonnet flag of rebellion and held up a sheet of paper, the Texas Declaration of Independence, which he and the rest of the Laredo Legislature had just signed after six hours of spirited debate. "It is the Texan destiny to forge its own path, free of the tyranny imposed from above by Richmond via their creature James Ferguson!" he announced. He was named Provisional President on the stipulation that his sole task was to steer Texas through the coming independence struggle and help draft a Constitution, while Johnson was named his Vice President.
News of the Laredo Declaration arrived in Austin quickly and caught Ferguson off guard, as did news a few days later that what were now the Republican forces had captured Corpus Christi. Events transpired enormously quickly from there - the United States announced via diplomatic missive that it regarded the Provisional Government "as the rightful government of Texan clay," thus immediately declaring that it recognized the Second Republic and intended to establish diplomatic relations with it. Other countries were considerably more ambivalent, particularly Mexico, in wanting to see in what direction the wind blew with the Confederacy before making a move, though Mexico City's sympathies of course continued to remain firmly with Laredo rather than Austin..."
- Republic Reborn
[1] It's Texit time!
The other was that it was becoming increasingly clear that the bulk of Confederate forces were going to be unable to actually march back into Texas anytime soon to restore order, but also that there was no ending to the crisis that left Texas inside the Confederacy but with all her privileges. On the floor of the Confederate Senate, Hoke Smith - the powerful Georgian who had gone from Secretary of State to the upper chamber - proposed splitting Texas into two states upon "reconquest" to even out its land size comparative to other states but also thus to defang the ability of its populist Westerners to dominate the slaveholding, plantation-economy Easterners. To a Texas that was starting to see the proceeds of a modern industrial, oil and cattle economy, this was essentially a ploy to further isolate them. It also became clear, based on both Ferguson's rhetoric and that of President Vardaman, that every man and woman in Laredo would be hung as traitors, possibly even the children.
Garner and Sheppard remained ambivalent about exiting the Confederacy [1] formally but Gore gave a rousing address to the gathered men there speaking of "the fourth revolution" - 1776, 1836, and 1861 being the previous three - as the final destiny for "this Texan race." In his view, Texas had been forged in the fires of secession and independence in some form from Great Britain, Mexico and the United States, and it was time to take "the last great leap into the freedom our forefathers deeded us - we are the generation that will finish the task!"
And so, on April 17th, 1916, Garner stood before a gathering of beleaguered soldiers waving the Blue Bonnet flag of rebellion and held up a sheet of paper, the Texas Declaration of Independence, which he and the rest of the Laredo Legislature had just signed after six hours of spirited debate. "It is the Texan destiny to forge its own path, free of the tyranny imposed from above by Richmond via their creature James Ferguson!" he announced. He was named Provisional President on the stipulation that his sole task was to steer Texas through the coming independence struggle and help draft a Constitution, while Johnson was named his Vice President.
News of the Laredo Declaration arrived in Austin quickly and caught Ferguson off guard, as did news a few days later that what were now the Republican forces had captured Corpus Christi. Events transpired enormously quickly from there - the United States announced via diplomatic missive that it regarded the Provisional Government "as the rightful government of Texan clay," thus immediately declaring that it recognized the Second Republic and intended to establish diplomatic relations with it. Other countries were considerably more ambivalent, particularly Mexico, in wanting to see in what direction the wind blew with the Confederacy before making a move, though Mexico City's sympathies of course continued to remain firmly with Laredo rather than Austin..."
- Republic Reborn
[1] It's Texit time!
Not even remotely caught up with TTL, but I just spat my coffee reading this! Cheers to the Lone Star Republic!
Yee, and most importantly, Haw!
I just hope that part of the US recognizing the new Republic is the stipulation that slavery is abolished
I just hope that part of the US recognizing the new Republic is the stipulation that slavery is abolished
Here's hoping! Though I suspect it will be a bit of a foregone conclusion - the slavery-centric East is making up the bulk of the CSA loyalists and so will have to pay the price once the Republic defeats them.
*sighs* Never in a million years, as a proud Upper Midwesterner, did I think I'd find myself rooting for ... Texas *grumbles*
Also, on a side note - based on your profile tag; it would seem for the Commissar for my current Uni town
I’d guess Argentina is probably high 0.8s/low 0.9s (so comparable to Italy or France OTL, which clock in at 0.895 and 0.903 respectively). This is higher than where we estimated Mexico TTL landing, though not by much
Brazil is probably low 0.8s, maybe similar to Malaysia, Serbia or Russia
Haha thank you!
We’ll get there, but the US-RoT dynamic will be… complicated
That assumes the plantocrats in East Texas actually stay in Texas, of courseHere's hoping! Though I suspect it will be a bit of a foregone conclusion - the slavery-centric East is making up the bulk of the CSA loyalists and so will have to pay the price once the Republic defeats them.
*sighs* Never in a million years, as a proud Upper Midwesterner, did I think I'd find myself rooting for ... Texas *grumbles*
Also, on a side note - based on your profile tag; it would seem for the Commissar for my current Uni town
So considerably weaker Labor Unions in many places? And the level of Government control of business that Nazi Germany had is the basis of the arguments that the Nazis were "Socialists"? Feels like less that 21st century Liberalism doesn't spread and more that 21st century Libertarianism doesn't spread (and yes, I know that the meaning of Liberal has changed). The question is does that make it less likely that world economic institutions like the World Bank would occur?
I feel like I've asked this before, but as of now, what are Argentina, Mexico and Brazil's populations as of TTL modern-day? (For comparison, they are, respectively, 47 million, 130 million and 203 million as of 2023)
With the caveat that Third Reich economics was some blend of Calvinball, Underpants Gnomes and “The Aristocrats” joke, sure.
Libertarian economics as we know it would really just be considered the most hardcore right wing element of liberalism. Without postwar Anglo-American hegemony you probably wouldn’t see a World Bank as we think of it but rather a bunch of World Banks in miniature; the Commonwealth’s version thereof probably looks and feels like the institutions @Rattigan mapped out in his ASSM timeline
My shorthand (which of course is just estimates) was something like:
Argentina 60-65million
Mexico 160-165million
Brazil 250million+
Haha i dont even live IN the city anymore, but yeah, i think you may have even pointed it out to me back in the first threadAlso, on a side note - based on your profile tag; it would seem for the Commissar for my current Uni town
I guess RoT has the fact the US will have its hands pretty full with rebuilding after the war as well as occupying some of the CSA by the sounds of it and also dealing with the peace process there! Look forward to seeing how it all develops