If you look at my final assumption you'll see I've taken that into account if you think this is not enough then please speak up and I can adjust it.
Sealion Naval Forces
- Thread starter Ian Hathaway
- Start date
I can see why you want to simplify it and give a general idea of what would (or could) have happened, but I have an awful feeling you're just stirring up a can of worms.
Still, should keep the thread going for another couple of hundred pages.
Still, should keep the thread going for another couple of hundred pages.
sharlin
Banned
Ahh yes spotted that. I still think that going purely off the numbers is a bad plan but your suggest rating alteration should make sense. Things like ships rates of fire was rarely as accurate as the sheer numbers, the German guns for example were big and powerful yes, but hauling those big shells manually would bite into a ROF very rapidly through exhaustion. It happened on RN ships with their lighter shells, there's only so many times you can lug a 28kg shell as well as another 16kg of propellant before your arms are simply knackered. A problem with many destroyers armament in WW2 because loading for the majority of them was manual.
For example hauling a standard 5 inch round for a German DD and its propellant 15 times a minute is a total of 660 kg. It would be impossible for that to be sustained without magical ubermesch replacing the loaders. Even spread across say 4 loaders (not sure of the size of the crew for the gun and its mounting) thats still 165kg per person over a minute. And the mounting is hand traversed and hand elevated. Any crew of any navy would be knackered after a few minutes of doing that.
Where as the RN guns are lighter yes, but so's the shell so whilst their ROF isn't as heigh, its more sustainable before you end out with gunners with arms like jelly.
This is why just going off raw numbers is a bad idea, but you're making the best of a bad situation.
How are you going to do the battle, as an escalating engagement or take it as if both big formations just meet in the channel and have a good 'ol punchup until one side is sunk or disengages?
There is that fear too...especially from someone in the Wehraboo camp who's kept this thread going through sheer bloody minded obstinancy and refusal to accept reality....
For example hauling a standard 5 inch round for a German DD and its propellant 15 times a minute is a total of 660 kg. It would be impossible for that to be sustained without magical ubermesch replacing the loaders. Even spread across say 4 loaders (not sure of the size of the crew for the gun and its mounting) thats still 165kg per person over a minute. And the mounting is hand traversed and hand elevated. Any crew of any navy would be knackered after a few minutes of doing that.
Where as the RN guns are lighter yes, but so's the shell so whilst their ROF isn't as heigh, its more sustainable before you end out with gunners with arms like jelly.
This is why just going off raw numbers is a bad idea, but you're making the best of a bad situation.
How are you going to do the battle, as an escalating engagement or take it as if both big formations just meet in the channel and have a good 'ol punchup until one side is sunk or disengages?
There is that fear too...especially from someone in the Wehraboo camp who's kept this thread going through sheer bloody minded obstinancy and refusal to accept reality....
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It's definitely not a WOULD ... its a could as it can't include things such as luck, random acts of heroism, the indivdual qualities of each man involved etc. etc. It will just give one possible outcome out of many millions of variations, but I was hoping it would be a starting point. I was also considering doing this in a seperate thread so it could be detached from all the IOW stuff ... but then decided against it as I just thought people would groan and say "not another bloody Sealion thread"I can see why you want to simplify it and give a general idea of what would (or could) have happened, but I have an awful feeling you're just stirring up a can of worms.
Still, should keep the thread going for another couple of hundred pages.
Let me know however about the assumptions I have made and whether there should be any others included or whether any of the ones there need adjusting.
sharlin
Banned
Agreed instead of letting this stinking, soiled, bloodied mess crawl on in agony any more. Let. It. Die.
Yeah, there is too much baggage and bullshit associated with this thread.
Derek Pullem
Donor
I do recall earlier in the thread a link that suggested that the Germans abandoned the idea of a night time crossing for a daylight one due to formation / speed issues and better chance of protecting the convoys from the air.
sharlin
Banned
Aye there's that too, you could also factor in the RN going nearly as nuts with night fighting as the IJN did (Jutland flashbacks say hello) and being probably the finest at night fighting in the world at the time in Europe or American waters.
And trying to co-ordinate massed barges at night in blackout conditions with most of them being towed would be beyond a nightmare if you need to make course changes (and you would), most of them lacking radios...and it being co-ordinated by loud hailer etc...yeah...this can't possibly go wrong.
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Derek Pullem
Donor
Also the straight comparison of combat power might be a bit misleading.
Destroyer vs Destroyer probably leads to two wrecked ships with both combat ineffective.
But destroyer vs barge / auxillary leads to multiple casualties on the barge / auxillary side.
You might be better off "pairing off" the naval combatants, destroyer for destroyer, and then estimating barge kills per warship therafter.
The problem is that as many of the barges were towed then one kill may render many barges ineffective
Revenge and Erebus landing 15" shells anywhere near the barges is going to create secondary losses from collisions and such like.
Destroyer vs Destroyer probably leads to two wrecked ships with both combat ineffective.
But destroyer vs barge / auxillary leads to multiple casualties on the barge / auxillary side.
You might be better off "pairing off" the naval combatants, destroyer for destroyer, and then estimating barge kills per warship therafter.
The problem is that as many of the barges were towed then one kill may render many barges ineffective
Revenge and Erebus landing 15" shells anywhere near the barges is going to create secondary losses from collisions and such like.
Saphroneth
Banned
Here's what might work - pair off each side's ship (let's say start with the German warships) with equivalent enemy combat power.
This basically involves the assumption of "linear" warfare - each side engages its equal amount and there's some spare force left over.
Now, in reality Lanchester's Square applies to modern warfare, which would mean that the larger force caused more hits faster and hence won quicker (one DD vs. two DD means that the single DD takes hits twice as fast as a single target, and as such is rendered combat ineffective while one enemy target is merely damaged and another untouched), but linear warfare is a good first approximation.
Once that's done, you next look at the scale of the "spare" combat power.
This basically involves the assumption of "linear" warfare - each side engages its equal amount and there's some spare force left over.
Now, in reality Lanchester's Square applies to modern warfare, which would mean that the larger force caused more hits faster and hence won quicker (one DD vs. two DD means that the single DD takes hits twice as fast as a single target, and as such is rendered combat ineffective while one enemy target is merely damaged and another untouched), but linear warfare is a good first approximation.
Once that's done, you next look at the scale of the "spare" combat power.
sharlin
Banned
Not to mention the effect of a 15 inch shells near miss producing splinters when they burst on impact. A near miss would probably still be fatal as the hull would have metal spears go hurtling through the sides...even a 4.7 shell would do this :s
Raw numbers won't tell the real result. One thing I do suggest Ian is that for any auxillery craft, armed barges etc you reduce their combat capabilities by 3/4 simply because they are not built for it, not directed, not trained etc. The German naval ships would still be at a disadvantage, they simply are not as experienced at this as the RN are and they are tied to the Convoy.
NEW THREAD STARTED HERE ....
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?p=9776102#post9776102
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?p=9776102#post9776102
Nothing. Assuming IOW actually fell to assault, and then assuming the campaign petered out in the fall, IOW would presumably either be retaken by the British after October, or evacuated. An SLOC over the winter, or even for more than a number months, would not be sustainable.