In the interests of users sanity this thread has been started to get back to the original point of the discussion ...
Following on from this, a simplistic analysis of the "Battle of the Channel" would give us an idea of the losses sustained by both sides and of what forces the Germans could land on British soil.
I have looked at the relative strengths of each ship/boat involved based on a very simple formula of firepower alone taking into consideration the weight of shot, range and rate of fire of the weaponry of the vessels of both sides. This gives the following results as a comparison to the British Tribal Class Destroyer:
I know that is pretty basic but it will hopefully give a good idea of what might happen.
- German Destroyers are 13% stronger than the Tribal Class. Their guns (12.7cm as opposed to the 4.7" QF of the Tribal) fire a heavier projectile over a greater distance and at a quicker rate.
- In comparison a British Light Cruiser is typically 3 times better than a Tribal.
- The Battleship HMS Revenge has the Equivolent firepower of 15+ Tribals.
- In contrast the British V & W destroyers (the most numerous) are only rated at 1/3 the strength of the Tribal.
- On the German side the 1935 Class Torpedo Boat is slightly weaker than the V & W destroyer however the Raubtier Class Torpedo Boats which also carry the 12.7cm gun are twice as good as the V & W.
- It would take 11 or 12 ASW Trawlers to pack the same punch as a Tribal.
The following assumptions have been made, but these assumptions can be changed and the analysis run again:
I will post the results shortly ...
- The British have received copies of the plans showing landing beaches and convoy routes, but not dates and times. The plans were only confirmed as genuine at the last minute however so the RN was not able to redeploy shipping but does know where to target their attacks. Basically their is no delay due to fog of war or uncertainty of the exact location of the invasion area.
- The British identify the German buildup and place all units on alert to sail at 30 minutes notice. This again means that there are no delays in interception.
- Due to the above the British use their network of Dutch, Belgian and French informants to tell them of the exact moment of departure of the invasion convoys and can set sail and intercept as quickly as possible.
- On receipt of orders all ships and small boats depart from their respective locations from Plymouth, along the South Coast and up the East Coast as far as Rosyth (all other locations are out of range). To avoid overstressing the ships all sail at 75% max speed. No breakdowns or collisions occur.
- Mines can be ignored as the British know where they are going and they have been constantly keeping cleared lanes.
- The German convoys begin moving at 22:00 on 23rd September utilising the darkness to best advantage. The convoys finish forming up off the English coast at 08:00 on the 24th and begin their run to the beaches at this time. The first troops land at 09:00 and continue until all are landed or the remaining transports/barges are sunk.
- Half light is between 06:00 and 7:00 with full light at 07:00 onwards.
- From first sailing to the German ships returning to port takes 16 hours (the slower barges are abandoned on the beaches to be recovered at a later date.)
- No air attacks have been taken into account. It is assumed that the Luftwaffe either fails to break through the fighter screen or is occupied elsewhere. The same applies to the RAF.
- As per Admiralty orders the RN is tasked with targetting the transports and only engaging with war ships if directly threatened. As such 80% of damage has been allocated to the German transports and 20% to German warships.
- To try to balance the argument that the German sailors were not as good as those of the RN and that their ships were poorly designed the rating of their ships has been reduced by 1/2 in all calculations.