*Ahem*
Of course there is the naval advantage, but how are you going to exploit said naval advantage?
As for Germans "Dominating the Baltics and causing merry hell on soviet flanks and in leningrad" yeah, because the people who have been brutalised by the Nazi's would really like the idea of having them back
So? He's got an opinion I disagree with. I didn't say the Germans would work on the Soviet flank, it would be the allies and whatever Germans they opted to use. Still the Baltic people were a hell of a lot more fond of the Germans than the Soviets, considering how many Baltic people fought in the German army or helped them in other capacities and fought on after the war in the forests.
As to 'nuker's point about it taking 1 year to break the LW, the USAAF was at the peak of its skill and power in 1945, a peak that was higher than the period leading up to Normandy and also included technology and equipment that wasn't available to the USAAF in January 1944. Meanwhile the Soviets were still struggling to defeat the LW even in 1944-45 despite a massive numerical inferiority. That was partly due to doctrine, as they were kept closely tied to fronts instead of being able to operate independently, which would be a massive problem for them if they faced Wallied air units. Nuker is just wrong to claim it would take two years, because IOTL the Allies had the massive handicap of having to fly from off the continent to even get to the areas where the LW would have to chose to give battle, but in July 1945 they had bases and supply hubs right in Germany and the nearby Lowlands. They had landed in Norway and Denmark and were far closer to the front line and were thus able to fly multiple sortees a day as a result, unlike the period up to Normandy. But also look at things like Operation Starvation and know that the Wallies had learned a lot from 1942-45 from fighting the LW, so they knew how to do the job more effectively.
They had a better doctrine, better technology, far more well trained pilots, more than twice as many aircraft, plus of course the potential to draw on Germans if needed. Not only that but the VVS is not doctrinally set up to fight an independent air arm, its an army support force, with the PVO set up to defend against bombing of rear areas; the PVO though was not present in Germany in 1945 or even Poland for that matter, they were still in Russia proper. The RAF could operate accurately at night against a totally undefended night air space due to the lack of Soviet night fighters in Central Europe and was far less sophisticated than the Luftwaffe at night defense. USAAF would not face a force capable of dealing with it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heinkel_He_177#Operational_history
During operations on the Eastern Front in early 1944, often carried out in daylight at about 6,000 m (19,690 ft) or higher, losses were relatively light. The Soviet Air Force, equipped mainly for low-level interception and ground-attack roles, was able to do little to hinder the high-flying bombers.
US and RAF fighter-bombers and well escorted medium bombers could chew up Soviet armored columns and their supply columns with ease, espeically given how reliant they were at this point on truck borne supply, as their rail lines were still attenuated both due to the rapid advance at the end of the war into a much wider front than the Wallies had to deal with and anti-Soviet partisans and left over German units not yet scooped up in the rear areas. Advancing to the Rhein without any air attacks is going to be impossible for the Soviet in July 1945 due to their logistical issues and huge force supply needs, but when you add in Wallied air attacks which the Soviets were not set up to counter then they will have massive issues just staying in place in Central Europe and the Balkans.
http://www.angelfire.com/ct/ww2europe/stats.html
Aircraft Available In Europe
Date British US Soviet
December 1944 14,500 12,200 15,800
By 1945 there were over 20,000 USAAF aircraft in Europe or North Africa and over 40k on hand in USAAF inventory:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Army_Air_Forces#Growth.2C_aircraft
Campaign Allied
France 1940 4480
Britain 1940 31,000
Pre D-Day 1944 98,400
Post D-Day 1944 203,357
Note the massive growth of sortees after a foothold was taken on the continent after D-day vs. prior. With a place in Central Europe in 1945 the Wallies can generate huge sortees from all over Western, Northern, Southern, and Central Europe, land forces in the Baltics or just use aircraft carriers to harass and bomb Soviet units there, hit Leningrad, interdict Soviet units in Northern Norway, etc. They majorly outnumber and out technology the Soviets in the air and in air defense, while having better doctrine, better training, better supply lines, more friendlies in the rear area, a former enemy that is willing to fight the Soviets for their country and available in the millions.